Get started

Wticude

WTI Crude Oil ForecastAs we get back to work, traders will have to put money back on their books in order to take risk on, and crude oil certainly looks like it is a great candidate for something like that. With the 50 day EMA sitting just below the $75 level, that means that the $75 level has little bit more psychology attached to it than usual. Nonetheless, you can see that we have skyrocketed over the last couple of weeks and I think it has become obvious as to which direction traders are starting to trade this market now that massive lockdowns due to the omicron seem to be off the table. That was one of the biggest concerns that most traders had, that economies would have to shut down and thereby kill the idea of demand for energy. Now that traders have to get back to work, they will find alpha to generate, and crude oil is one of the best places to do so. While we did not completely wipe out the massive selloff from about a month ago, we got awfully close to it and that does suggest that perhaps we will eventually make that attempt once traders start to put full positions back on. Another thing to pay attention to is the jobs numbers coming on Friday, and that will also give us a big “heads up” as to potential energy demand, so it could be yet another reason to think that the market may go higher over the intermediate term. I have no interest in shorting this market right now, as I believe it is well supported all the way down to at least $70.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: January 2022WTI Crude Oil Outlook for January Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 67.00 to 89.00 USD. If WTI falters below the 73.00 level and begins to challenge prices below 70.00 this may be perceived as a bearish sign in the market. Having touched the 66.00 level in the middle of December, some traders may feel the urge to test downward momentum of WTI Crude Oil believing it can retest those lows. However, traders shorting the commodity should not get too ambitious. The current direction of WTI may prove to be a solid bullish signal. If lows are tested, they may provide a solid position to ignite buying positions. If WTI Crude Oil is able to penetrate the 77.00 price level and sustain its momentum, the price of 78.00 should be watched carefully. Technically, there is reason to suspect if late November prices are challenged with upwards price action that the 80.00 juncture could become a speculative playground for WTI like it was able to display in October and November. While some skeptics may believe WTI Crude Oil has been overbought in the short term, the price is actually still under levels displayed a month and a half ago. If positive market sentiment continues to build into the global economic picture, traders may believe WTI could begin to challenge marks above 80.00 and aim for the 82.00 to 84.00 ratios without too many hurdles. Bullish traders who are optimistic may believe there is another leg higher that can be demonstrated in January for WTI Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil looks set to begin January within the higher realms of it one-month chart. That is a simple enough perception. But the fight for higher values has not been easy. Essentially from the second week of October until the middle of November, WTI Crude Oil was trading above the 80.00 USD level. Highs on the 25th of October saw the 85.00 mark challenged and this was nearly duplicated on the 10th of November. On the 25th of November WTI Crude Oil was trading near 77.00, two days later it was challenging the 67.00 ratio. On the 2nd of December the 62.00 mark came within sight for the commodity. A price recovery ensued with choppy conditions prevailing, but on the 16th of December WTI was near 73.00, when a reversal lower abruptly took place again and a low of nearly 66.00 USD per barrel was demonstrated on the 20th. However since that recent low WTI Crude Oil has been a buyers’ market and as of this writing the commodity is approaching 77.00 USD. Technically WTI has certainly confronted speculators with choppy conditions and risk management has proven an important tool. However, the swift movement in value has also provided traders an opportunity to take advantage of volatility and test their perceptions as global conditions move because of headline ‘noise’ and speculative nervousness. While Crude Oil certainly saw its value erode in late November due to a new onslaught of fears caused by the Omicron variant, the past couple of weeks have seen an incremental climb. WTI Crude Oil now appears ready to begin January near values which could be ready to test marks last seen before the new coronavirus fears struck the marketplace in late November. Technical traders may be somewhat skeptical of the move higher seen the past week because they may believe this has something to do with light holiday trading. While it may prove to be an important facet of the actual market regarding volumes, the ability of WTI Crude Oil to fight off of lows seen in early December and go into January almost having recovered it total price seen in late November is intriguing.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Looks Set to Pull BackThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, only to break down rather significantly and show signs of extreme weakness. By doing so, the market looks as if it is probably going to test the 200 day EMA underneath, which currently sits at the $69.21 level. Whether or not we break down below there is a completely different question, but it is worth noting that the $73 level has been a bit like a brick wall, and therefore I think at the very least we have a pullback coming. The 200 day EMA will obviously attract a lot of attention, but whether or not it holds will remain to be seen. If we break down below there, then it is likely we go looking towards the $65 region, where we had a major uptrend line and a hammer form and bounced from. The market is more than likely going to respect that area, but if we break down below the $65 level, then it is very likely that crude oil will break significantly lower. A lot of this is going to be interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks, because part of what we are seeing here is the fact that liquidity will start to dry up towards the end of the year and therefore you need to pay close attention to your position size. After all, you may get the occasional spike that causes havoc for your account. If we can break above that $73 level finally, then I think the market goes looking towards the $75 level, which also happened to be where the 50 day EMA is. The question now is whether or not the markets are going to start pricing in a massive slow down economically or are they going to start looking towards the fact that demand for crude oil could continue to go higher based upon the reopening trade. Omicron did cause quite a bit of wreckage in risk appetite around the world, but it does look as if the variant is not going to be as dangerous as some of the others. However, if governments continue to try to shut everything down, that obviously has a very negative effect on crude oil.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
Crude Oil Plummets on OPEC DecisionOPEC Agrees January 2022 Supply Hike Less than one month ago, WTI Crude Oil was trading at about $85 per barrel, which was a multi-year high price. Over the past three weeks the price descended rapidly from that high, and today extended that trend to approach the 6-month low price at $61.76. The pace of this downwards trend accelerated a few days ago with the news of the discovery of the omicron coronavirus variant. As there are fears that this variant may be dealt with by lockdowns and trade shutdowns or delays, if its potency is revealed to be high, we can expect a drop in demand, which will inevitably mean a drop in the price of WTI Crude Oil. It was against this backdrop that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed a short while ago to extend the supply of January 2022 Crude Oil by 400,000 barrels per day. There are initial reports that the members are also agreed to review this decision if demand does drop rapidly over the coming weeks. WTI Crude Oil Price Action The price of WTI Crude Oil has fallen strongly over the past few days. It has fallen by more than 25% in value since reaching a multi-year high of $85.39 on 25th October 2021. The pace of the fall has quickened recently. The drop is showing what might be initial signs of exhaustion as it approaches the key support level at $61.89 which represents the lowest price seen since May 2021. What Does This Mean for Traders? Traders should be aware that if the omicron coronavirus variant is resistant to existing vaccines and can also cause serious illness to vaccinated people, governments may well react by initiating another round of shutdowns for a while, as they did in March and April 2020 when the disease really began to spread worldwide. The lockdowns, shutdowns, and trade restrictions that were put in place in the spring of 2020 did a great deal of economic damage, although most economies rebounded strongly after this period as restrictions were eased. The panic of March 2020 saw huge and very rapid directional movements in the markets, but nothing was as spectacular as the price action in WTI Crude Oil, with futures actually going into negative territory for a while. This and the subsequent strong rebound gave traders and speculators some incredible trade opportunities, first short, then long. If history is going to repeat itself, even if on a smaller scale, the price of WTI Crude Oil has good reasons to fall further, in line with the long-term trend. How far it might fall is anyone’s guess, but if omicron is economically destructive, it is very likely to.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SmoothJB
1
WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Trying to RecoverThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has broken down a bit during the course of the session on Thursday but has seen a bit of buying pressure to test the 50 day EMA. The market is forming a bit of a hammer, and now that we have had a nice pullback, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see this market continue to go higher. At that point, it is likely that the market would go looking towards the $85 level, which is where we had recently formed a bit of a “double top” previously. I think the $85 level is more likely than not going to be the target, and I do not think that it will be easy to break above. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the bottom of the hammer for the trading session on Thursday, then it opens up a move down to the $75 level. That is an area that I think has a lot of psychology attached to it, and therefore I think I would be a bit surprised to see this market break down below there. Even if it did, the 200 day EMA is reaching towards the $70 level as well, so I think that is your “floor the market” going forward. Nonetheless, we have formed a nice hammer for the day, and this does suggest that the buyers are trying to step up and pick this market up. If that is going to be the case, then it is probably only a matter of time, or we turn around and go looking towards the $85 level above. Looking at this chart, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but you should keep in mind that we are in an uptrend . That is probably the most important thing here to pay attention to, so because of this you need to keep the “buy on the dips” type of set up in mind, as trying to short a market that has been so strong for months on end would be rather foolish and probably a great way to lose money. If we can somehow break above the $85 level, then it is likely that we could go much higher, perhaps filling the idea of a $100 target.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fluctuated on Tuesday as it sits just above the $80 level. When you get a strong move to the upside like we have had, the market will either go sideways to digest its gains or pull back. At this point, it looks like we are going to settle on grinding sideways and digesting the previous move. If we were to turn around and break down from here, there are multiple areas where I would anticipate seeing support, especially at the $75 level. That being said, the market also sees the $77.50 level as a potential buying opportunity as well. Crude oil continues to be very tight as far as supply is concerned, so I have no interest in trying to get too cute and short this market. The market is very likely to go much higher over the longer term, so I think it is simply a matter of waiting for an opportunity to get long of crude oil yet again. In fact, it is likely that we would see plenty of opportunities going forward, and most people believe that crude oil is going to go looking towards the $85 level. The candlestick for the day is very indecisive, and I think that is likely to be how we behave between now and the end of the week. If we broke above the top of the shooting star for Monday, then I think it would open up a move towards the $85 level rather quickly. The market will almost certainly see an increase in momentum at that point, so I believe that it is probably going to be a signal to get somewhat aggressive to the upside. Again, I do not see any situation in which I would be a seller, because the market is tight from a supply standpoint and should continue to be so for the foreseeable future. In fact, when you look at the futures curve, it is not until late next year when you start to see prices drop back down towards the $60. I think this is going to continue to be an issue going forward, so we need to pay close attention to some type of “blow off top”, but we are nowhere near seeing that right now.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
Top of the WaveWell it is finally here.. We have reached the date of the above green time cycle. This cycle marks the date of significant highs, normanly followed by a sharp break down. This cycle has remained acurate for last 3 years (we are entering 4 year) and it remain spot on. The Green time cycle shows the dates when oil stops a bull run. Even in a bear market, there will be bull run leading into this date... On this date we see the high. Even thought I only use this to predict the Week of the event (break to bearish).. It has been acurate to the DAY the last three years. As it predicted the break happened on Friday. October 7th. That is six complete cycles going back over three years. Simply put, we have reached the top of the wave until Apex of Red cycle, Jan 20, 2017. Oil is going down. The Red sine wave shows at what point in the cycle oil will be at its low. Think of it as the inverse of the Green time cycle with a different wave timing. The low for oil will be on the Apex date of the Red sine wave. The last apex occurred (and was predicted) on Aug 4. This wave timing longer than the Green time cycle, so you can see it's apex can occur from days to months after the High of the Green time cycle. The difference in time between the two dictates the speed of the fall. This pattern is consistent. Sure... I only make a handful of trades a year, and i normally swing them for about 3months, so why is this important to short term traders.. Because if you know the direction for the next few weeks or months, and you know any spike up before the Red sine wave date will be reversed to at least the prior low since the Green time cycle date. All of last years gains where based on these trades.. I will be updating our other published ideas to consolidate them here. All are subsets of this cycle chart. If you have been following you know we are on a longterm big short from 47.10 You also know we made the trip from 40'ish to above 47 twice and our longterm shorts are still underwater. You also know that we also swung short-term shorts for +21% profits with a 1week trade. Neither of these cycles predict price, just course and direction. Our target remains 38 WTI by Jan. 20, 2017. No do overs, not yea buts.. We feel oil will bottom on this day for cycle, and although it will take a few days to confirm a top, and could test 50 this week, we feel this marks the end of this last bull run of the year.
TVC:USOILEducation
by BigEz
24