WTI CRUDE OIL Target hit. Now prepare for the top.WTI Crude Oil hit the MA200 (4h) today for the first time since March 9th.
We got our target hit from buying at the bottom (chart in the end of analysis) and now we are switching to selling as the price is closer to the top of the 3-month Channel Down pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price as the price completed a +16% rise, matching the strongest rally so far this year.
Targets:
1. 67.00 (Support 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is forming the very same peak pattern as all previous tops since December. Similar to the bottom formation when we started buying.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
Wtioil
WTI CRUDE OIL: One High left before new selling pressure.The WTI Crude Oil is being currently rejected on the 4H MA200 but with 4H technicals naturally bullish still (RSI = 61.154, MACD = 1.320, ADX = 61.771). This is due to the strong 9 day rally since the price made a bottom on the LL trendline of the Channel Down of December.
The 4H RSI also got rejected on the 70.000 overbought level and 5 times out of 6 within this Channel Down, this was an indication that we are either at the top or the last High before the top (LH trendline of the Channel Down). The last three tops were priced on the 1D MA100. We give slightly higher probabilities of this happening again. Sell this and TP = 67.00 (S1).
Prior idea:
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WTI OIL Channel Up aiming at the 1D MA50.WTI Oil (USOIL) transitioned from the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern we described last week to a Channel Up:
Our target remains 74.50 on the medium-term which makes both a Higher High on the Channel Up while filling a 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is the technical target for the IH&S.
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WTI Crude Oil - Prospective positional short tradeWTI Crude Oil has completed a nice Head and Shoulders pattern breakdown in the weekly chart and has retested the breakdown zone. Currently cruising at around $67. It is comfortably placed below yearly pivot. Currently the developing yearly CPR is posing a big resistance which possibly could push the price lower. It has also gone down below the yearly virgin pivot and poised to move towards the next yearly virgin pivot at around $37 which is possibly my first target. The target based on head and shoulders pattern is around $23-$25 zone. A move above $82 will invalidated this view and will be out of my position.
WTI CRUDE OIL Pulling back to a Support. Buy the low.WTI Crude Oil is pulling back on a normal technical move after the Falling Resistance break out.
This will now be tested in the form of a Support.
Buy the Low as long as the RSI's Rising Support is intact.
Target 74.50, which is Fibonacci 0.618 and 4hour MA200.
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WTI OIL Inverse Head and Shoulders cementing the bottom.WTI Oil (USOIL) is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame, which is a technical bottom and bullish reversal formation. The 4H RSI is on a Higher Lows trend-line, indicating an uptrend and already above the 50.00 neutral mark. One last pull-back to the 65.70 Symmetrical Support is possible, before a strong rally targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Our target is 74.50.
This is an update to our last week analysis:
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WTI OIL Excellent long-term buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) got its 1D RSI oversold below 30.00 as the market made a new Low since December 09. The last two times the 1D RSI was that low was on the medium-term (Lower) Lows of December 09 and September 26. This is a strong buy signal as every time the Low was priced, it did so on a consecutive 1D Double Bottom candle, which just did today.
The Pivot Zone is the first level of Resistance, but since the Dec and Sep rebounds both hit the 1D MA50 on the way up, we will target that again, setting a medium-term target at 74.50.
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WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKWTI had fallen for 3 consecutive days in Wednesday. The bank crisis is calling banks to deleverage their positions, pulling back on their exposure on oil and causing the price to fall.
International Energy Agency (IEA) is also reporting that the current situation in the oil market is a situation of oversupply, while Russia is looking for buyers for its oil.
The price of WTI broke the support of the rising wedge pattern and continues to drop. Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the pattern as well.
If the current scenario continues, the price might reach levels of 62 or even 54.
In the opposite scenario the price might reach levels of 77.5 and pivot into an uptrend.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy inside the Triangle.WTI Crude Oil turned neutral on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 46.669, MACD = -0.040, ADX = 33.066) as it hit the bottom of the 3 month Triangle. This is a confirmed signal to go long (TP = 79.50) targeting the top of the Triangle.
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Short crude oil when reboundingBecause the market is vigilant about frequent and more substantial interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, concerns about the global recession have increased, and the global stock market has generally weakened, which has dragged down oil prices.
On the daily chart, oil prices continued to weaken in the short term, and fell back after the rebound in the previous trading day was blocked, suggesting strong selling pressure above.From the technical structure point of view, oil prices have still been in a wide fluctuation trend in recent months, and at the same time, they have also formed a short-term wedge-shaped consolidation trend to make a transitional market before the direction is chosen.The current support and strong support for oil prices are the 74.3 line on the wedge-shaped extension cord and the 72.3 line on the extension cord of the shock box below. The resistance above the short period is at the 76.5 line, and the stronger resistance is at the 77.6 line at the intersection of the short-period moving average and the Bollinger band.
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Will crude oil continue to rebound strongly? Long or short?In the crude oil market, due to the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and bullish expectations for Chinese demand, concerns that the Federal Reserve's more aggressive interest rate increases will slow economic growth and weaken oil consumption have limited the rebound in oil prices, so the crude oil market is still uncertain.
Judging from the trend, the current crude oil has rebounded strongly in the short term after fluctuating at a low level, but it is not enough to change the daily shorting situation, indicating that the overall trend of crude oil at a large level is still weak.Although the short-term rebound is shown on the 2-hour level chart, the short-term rebound is quite strong, but the pressure is heavy above, and the short-term continuity is a problem. It may continue slightly, but it is difficult to say how much room there is to continue without breaking the low range for the time being.Short-term may be accompanied by resistance loops, the market has returned to operate within the weak range.
In terms of strategy, yesterday's thinking was also high-level shorting, but today's thinking is still high-level, supplemented by low-level long-selling.
Crude oil is shorted near 77.8-78, and the first target is near 75.5
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WTI OIL Sell opportunity halfway through the bearish wave.WTI Oil (USOIL) is on a short-term bearish wave after getting rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line of January 23. As the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to form a Golden Cross with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), we are opening a new short-term sell targeting 74.50, right above the Higher Lows trend-line. As you see every 4H Golden Cross has been a respectable sell entry, all of which aimed ad the Higher Lows trend-line.
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USOIL WTI cautiously bullishWith the 4% drop on Tuesday, it appears that USOIL is likely to experience some moderate fluctuations over the next few trading sessions. While there are a number of factors that could impact price action, it seems that the market is currently in a relatively stable state despite the dump.
I would like to outline three potential scenarios:
USOIL could see some gains early today as the falling wedge looks set for reversal.
There may also be some resistance at $77.40, which could limit the extent of any upward movement. with a potential retest of $76.06
Watch out for a potential retest of previous low ($76.07) before finding upwards momentum.
Overall, and right now, I think it is difficult to predict exactly how USOIL will perform today and tomorrow but I'm cautiously bullish plus it's Friday!
Trade safely and don't take my word for it!
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Oil prices have stopped falling, and the bulls are back?Crude oil was suppressed by fundamentals and high pressure. Yesterday, the daily line fell all the way, and finally the daily line closed the negative line. Crude oil currently continues to maintain a wide range of oscillations on the daily line. The 4-hour level trend is also after a continuous decline. The current deviation rate is slightly too large, and the technical patterns on the small-cycle trend are also beginning to be gradually repaired, and there is a high probability that there will be some room for rebound and repair in the short-term trend.On the news side, short-term attention will be paid to Powell's further remarks and EIA data within the day.
Operationally, crude oil is recommended to be short at 78.3, below the target of 76.6.
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TVC:USOIL TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
USOIL stuck between $70 and $82A month ago, we noted that USOIL would likely stay stuck within the wide range between $70 and $82. We outlined several developments that pointed to a neutral trend and said that even if the price fell below $70, we would expect it to be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) near that price tag. A week later, the U.S. announced it would release 26 million barrels of crude oil into the market (in line with its mandate). However, based on the publicly available data, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves have remained unchanged since the start of 2023, at 371.58 million barrels. That indicates U.S. officials are waiting for a higher oil price at which they could unload their reserves at a profit. With the price of USOIL approaching $80 per barrel, this event might not be that far away. Our view has not changed; we still expect the oil price to stay choppy within the wide range for an unforeseeable future.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL within the wide range and two simple moving averages. Previously, we said that the flattening of these moving averages indicated a neutral trend.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOUSD Daily: 22/02/2023: Will buyers push the price up?
As you can see, the price is in the bearish structure and we expect the price to see lower levels. I am bearish till the price is below the weekly resistance.
But for now, we can see that price move in the trading range for a while and it means there is huge liquidity on both sides of this range.
In addition, we are under 50% of the previous bearish wave so we are in discount and searching for a buy setup.
In that case, from here or low time frame demand zone with low time frame confirmation we can go long.
our first target can be the supply zone and then 50% Fibo level and finally, above 83.31 we can close our position.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️22/02/2023
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WTI: It all comes down to the green… 💵🌿It all comes down to the green . This saying is especially true for WTI as it has yet to dive into the green zone between $70.12 and $35.77. To get this done, the course should push further off the upper side of the turquoise trend channel and drop below the support at $70.08. This should grant WTI direct access to the green zone, where it should finish wave 2 in green before heading northwards again. However, a 32% chance remains that WTI could turn upwards and climb above the resistance at $82.64, in which case the course would develop wave alt.(b) in blue above the upper resistance line at $93.74 first before resuming the descent.
WTI OIL One last upside target. This is the signal to sell.We are updating our WTI Oil (USOIL) outlook on last week's buy signal:
Target 1 (78.50) has been hit as the price reached the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the January 27 High. If a 4H candle closes above this trend-line, you can extend buying towards Target 2 (80.00), which is where the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is, posing as the Resistance.
We will open sells when the 4H RSI makes a Lower High. This has worked 100% on all three previous Highs of the December - February range.
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WTI OIL Rally is halfway there. Still a buy.WTI Crude Oil is now supported on the MA50 (4h).
The Channel Up that started on Support Zone (1) is similar to all previous 4 Channels that started on that level.
Price got rejected on the Mid level structure, indicating that we are only halfway there.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 80.50 (under Resistance Zone 1).
Tips:
1. The Declining Resistance shows that since November, there have been 2 such Cycles and we are about to completed the 2nd.
2. MACD (4h) right over its neutral level, an additional factor indicating that the Channel Up is halfway there.
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Notes:
This is an extension of this trading plan:
WTI OILWTI Oil, a benchmark for crude oil prices, has been gradually rising recently, indicating an uptrend in the market. By analyzing the available charts, it is possible to identify entry points for traders to buy at the same time as identifying an exit point.
To further refine the strategy, traders can use different technical indicators to help them make informed decisions. One potential approach involves looking for a little pullback on the middle trendline, which can serve as a testing ground for a "BUY" signal.
Overall, this strategy can be effective for traders looking to capitalize on the current trend in the WTI Oil market. By carefully monitoring the charts and utilizing appropriate indicators, traders can identify optimal entry and exit points to maximize their profits.