USOIL stuck between $70 and $82A month ago, we noted that USOIL would likely stay stuck within the wide range between $70 and $82. We outlined several developments that pointed to a neutral trend and said that even if the price fell below $70, we would expect it to be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) near that price tag. A week later, the U.S. announced it would release 26 million barrels of crude oil into the market (in line with its mandate). However, based on the publicly available data, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves have remained unchanged since the start of 2023, at 371.58 million barrels. That indicates U.S. officials are waiting for a higher oil price at which they could unload their reserves at a profit. With the price of USOIL approaching $80 per barrel, this event might not be that far away. Our view has not changed; we still expect the oil price to stay choppy within the wide range for an unforeseeable future.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL within the wide range and two simple moving averages. Previously, we said that the flattening of these moving averages indicated a neutral trend.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Wtioil
USOUSD Daily: 22/02/2023: Will buyers push the price up?
As you can see, the price is in the bearish structure and we expect the price to see lower levels. I am bearish till the price is below the weekly resistance.
But for now, we can see that price move in the trading range for a while and it means there is huge liquidity on both sides of this range.
In addition, we are under 50% of the previous bearish wave so we are in discount and searching for a buy setup.
In that case, from here or low time frame demand zone with low time frame confirmation we can go long.
our first target can be the supply zone and then 50% Fibo level and finally, above 83.31 we can close our position.
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🗓️22/02/2023
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WTI: It all comes down to the green… 💵🌿It all comes down to the green . This saying is especially true for WTI as it has yet to dive into the green zone between $70.12 and $35.77. To get this done, the course should push further off the upper side of the turquoise trend channel and drop below the support at $70.08. This should grant WTI direct access to the green zone, where it should finish wave 2 in green before heading northwards again. However, a 32% chance remains that WTI could turn upwards and climb above the resistance at $82.64, in which case the course would develop wave alt.(b) in blue above the upper resistance line at $93.74 first before resuming the descent.
WTI OIL One last upside target. This is the signal to sell.We are updating our WTI Oil (USOIL) outlook on last week's buy signal:
Target 1 (78.50) has been hit as the price reached the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the January 27 High. If a 4H candle closes above this trend-line, you can extend buying towards Target 2 (80.00), which is where the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is, posing as the Resistance.
We will open sells when the 4H RSI makes a Lower High. This has worked 100% on all three previous Highs of the December - February range.
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WTI OIL Rally is halfway there. Still a buy.WTI Crude Oil is now supported on the MA50 (4h).
The Channel Up that started on Support Zone (1) is similar to all previous 4 Channels that started on that level.
Price got rejected on the Mid level structure, indicating that we are only halfway there.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 80.50 (under Resistance Zone 1).
Tips:
1. The Declining Resistance shows that since November, there have been 2 such Cycles and we are about to completed the 2nd.
2. MACD (4h) right over its neutral level, an additional factor indicating that the Channel Up is halfway there.
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Notes:
This is an extension of this trading plan:
WTI OILWTI Oil, a benchmark for crude oil prices, has been gradually rising recently, indicating an uptrend in the market. By analyzing the available charts, it is possible to identify entry points for traders to buy at the same time as identifying an exit point.
To further refine the strategy, traders can use different technical indicators to help them make informed decisions. One potential approach involves looking for a little pullback on the middle trendline, which can serve as a testing ground for a "BUY" signal.
Overall, this strategy can be effective for traders looking to capitalize on the current trend in the WTI Oil market. By carefully monitoring the charts and utilizing appropriate indicators, traders can identify optimal entry and exit points to maximize their profits.
WTI OIL Two break-out buy signals11 days ago we took the best possible sell entry we could have as we shorted the exact top, calling for the best sell opportunity since December:
Right now the price is on a strong rebound, slightly higher than Support 1 (73.25) but with the 1D RSI on a confirmed reversal within its range. If you missed the bottom buy opportunity, wait for a 4H candle closing above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as this was a confirmed buy opportunity on all previous three occasions (circles). First target at 78.50 and if the price closes above the Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line, we will re-buy targeting 80.00.
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AW WTI Crude Oil - Learn The Waves To Never Miss This...This is just an update to show you how you could of already been in what will be a very profitable trade.
Linked below in related ideas is the video that told you to get in at the levels mentioned in this video.
I make these video to show you how learning the waves will make you an amazing trader.
You will catch moves that some people only dream of in hindsight.
All the hard work was put into making the AriasWave methodology over many years.
We will see just how insanely profitable this trade is once we hit those lows.
How will we know when the low is in? ...I will be tracking all these moves as we progress through the coming recession.
This recession will be the last recession before the huge bull market that awaits us once it's done.
I will also be posting another idea soon on how to enter this trade on a pull back when I see the right patterns.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
WTI OIL Perfect shortCrude Oil crossed under Support A on Friday but today is rising and hit the 1day MA50 again. We followed a very successful model last time as indicated below for selling high and buying low:
Based on this, today's rise is the countertrend rebound that both of the previous short constructs followed. We believe it will be short lived and serves as a new sell point. We target 73.50.
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WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKUS YoY CPI came above expectations yesterday, which led to expectations of further push of the prices. Although US Oil cushion reserve came above expectations, OPEC reported declined production of the month of January, and the expectations are for further increase of global demand for the crude oil.
On the 1H graph the price had broke the resistance of the Flag pattern, suggesting a start of a bullish movement, where, if continues, the price might test levels of 79.63
In the opposite scenario the price might fall to levels of 79.03
Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the bullish scenario.
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WTI OIL Approaching the best sell entry since December.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been rising within the short-term Channel Up as presented on our analysis last week:
As previously mentioned, since December 12, WTI hasn't closed below the 72.40 Support or above the 83.30 Resistance. That keeps the price ranged and recurring patterns emerge. One of those is the current Channel Up which is quite similar to the Channel Up patterns of December 16 - 27 and January 05 - 18.
This is what helped us take the buy last week above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) gave a boost on February 09. The price is now approaching the orange Resistance Zone and technically a price near 81.50 is a Sell despite the presence of a Higher Highs trend-line.
The reason is that the previous two Chanel Up patterns took approximately 36 and 38 candles respectively from bottom to top. A 36 bar sequence gets completed tomorrow so by Wednesday the latest (if this fractal gets repeated again), the Channel Up should top. We are waiting for that top, or better yet Double Top, to sell again and target the 73.25 Support.
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WTI OIL: This uptrend has more fuel.As WTI Oil hit technical neutrality on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 51.471, MACD = -0.510, ADX = 37.488), it reached Pivot1 (P1) and the 4H MA200 to pause and consolidate. As with the previous two rallies, we expect this to have some more fuel left and we are aiming at the 1D MA100 (TP = 80.50) that rejected the last uptrend 3 times.
After that, our sell trigger is a break below P1, and we will aim at the top of S1 (TP = 73.50). We are not waiting for the extension to R1 but rather will wait for the HH to break (bullish trigger) and aim below R2 (TP = 87.00).
P.S. Perfect execution of our last Oil signal:
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WTI OIL Recurring pattern turning it neutral mid-term?Our previous WTI Oil (USOIL) signal couldn't have gone any better as the bearish reversal was confirmed and we took the sell:
Following the rebound however after the (marginal) fake-out just below the 72.40 Support, we see the medium-term scene turning neutral. The reason is that since December 12, so effectively in the past 2 months, WTI hasn't closed below the 72.40 Support or above the 83.30 Resistance. And on top of that, the current rise looks quite similar to the Channel Up patterns of December 16 - 27 and January 05 - 18.
As a result, a clear candle closing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, is a buy signal targeting at least the 81.05 December 26 High. Also look how well the 1D RSI also fits into a range itself.
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Oil continues to oscillate within the wide range For some time now, we have been skeptical about the overly bullish narrative in the oil market. Additionally, we have disagreed with calls for a return to triple-digit prices while noting multiple times that oil was likely to be choppy throughout 2023, oscillating within a wide range. In fact, we later presented a similar view from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which sees WTI crude oil average $77 per barrel in 2023. Today, we continue to stick to our previous assessment. Indeed, we are inclining toward the notion that oil will likely dip below $70 during the year (which may not be that far). However, we voice a word of caution as the price drop might be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at the lower end of $70.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. If the price breaks below the sloping support, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL. Additionally, it shows two simple moving averages (SMAs). The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement toward these SMAs. If the price holds above them, it will be bullish. Contrarily, if the price breaks below SMAs, it will be bearish in the short-term.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI OIL Bearish reversal confirmedWTI Oil (USOIL) is so far following the trading plan we presented 11 days ago, rising first towards the 83.40 Resistance and as it failed to break above it, it instead broke the short-term Channel Up downwards:
This basically confirms the bearish reversal of January's rally, with the price breaking below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but at the moment finding Support on both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). A new rejection on the 4H MA50 and closing below the 4H MA200/ 1D MA50 cluster, will be a sell signal for us, targeting first the Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line and the 70.10 in extension on the longer term.
Check also how the 1D RSI got rejected emphatically on its own Lower Highs trend-line.
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WTI OIL: Top of Rising Wedge. Trade the rejection or the break.WTI Crude Oil hit the top (HH 1) of the Rising Wedge and got rejected initially but today we see a strong push back to the top. The 1D technicals are bullish (RSI = 61.888, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 33.690) and probably is what's pushing the price back to test the HH 1 again.
Until the time the HH 1 breaks, we are staying neutral, but with more bearish bias. Those will be confirmed if the 4H MA50 breaks, which is the bearish trigger. Then we will sell with TP = 77.00 - 76.00, depending on the 4H MA200 as well. Then as long as the Rising Wedge and HL 1 hold, we will buy again with TP = 82.50 (R1). Break below HL1 will be an additional sell with TP = 72.50 (S2).
The bullish trigger is the R1 whose top is 83.30. Above it we will buy with TP = 87.00 (R2).
Previous analysis:
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WTI OIL Limited upside, significant downsideIt is time to update our WTI Oil (USOIL) thesis, which was bullish last week as the Resistance within the Channel Up broke:
This time we see one last rise as a possibility since the price is rebounding on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but limited to the 83.40 Resistance. An exception can be made to an overextension to the 85.00 - 86.00 range on the red zone, which is the top (Lower Highs) limit of the 5-month Channel Down (dashed lines).
On that point or if the price breaks below the 4H MA50 first, we expect a strong drop, with the downside open to at least the 70.10 Support. A more likely scenario in our opinion.
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Consumer savings decline, economy slows down, and EIA's forecastSince December 2022, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has been moving choppily between $70 and $83. Currently, one barrel trades near $77.50. We continue waiting on the sidelines for the market picture to clear. However, we are still unconvinced by bullish scenarios for oil, forecasting a return of $100 and above. That is because we already see a significant slowdown in economic activity around the globe and evaporating savings of consumers in the United States, both of which are likely to weigh on the oil demand in the coming months. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see USOIL break below $70 after some time. However, the U.S. administration might put a temporary floor for oil around that level due to its plans to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the lower range of that price tag. As a result, this makes a compelling case for the continuation of choppy price action in oil; interestingly, that coincides with the latest assessment of the EIA.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) in 2023. As for U.S. petroleum production, it sees an increase of 5% (1 million barrels per day). In addition to that, it expects OPEC's output to grow by 0.5% (160 000 barrels per day), and, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and war-related sanctions, the EIA expects Russia’s production to drop by more than 12% (from 10.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to only 9.5 million barrels per day) in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stay relatively flat through the first half of 2023. After that, it expects the price to decline through the end of 2024. As a result, the agency foresees WTI crude oil to average $77 per barrel in 2023 and $72 per barrel in 2024.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. It also shows 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate retracements toward these levels, which acted as corrections of the downtrend. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and whether it will halt the price rise in the future; if it fails (and the price breaks above it), it will bolster the bullish case for oil in the short term.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.