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Wtioil

Oil continues to oscillate within the wide range For some time now, we have been skeptical about the overly bullish narrative in the oil market. Additionally, we have disagreed with calls for a return to triple-digit prices while noting multiple times that oil was likely to be choppy throughout 2023, oscillating within a wide range. In fact, we later presented a similar view from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which sees WTI crude oil average $77 per barrel in 2023. Today, we continue to stick to our previous assessment. Indeed, we are inclining toward the notion that oil will likely dip below $70 during the year (which may not be that far). However, we voice a word of caution as the price drop might be shortlived due to the U.S. administration seeking to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at the lower end of $70. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. If the price breaks below the sloping support, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL. Additionally, it shows two simple moving averages (SMAs). The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement toward these SMAs. If the price holds above them, it will be bullish. Contrarily, if the price breaks below SMAs, it will be bearish in the short-term. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
10
WTI OIL Bearish reversal confirmedWTI Oil (USOIL) is so far following the trading plan we presented 11 days ago, rising first towards the 83.40 Resistance and as it failed to break above it, it instead broke the short-term Channel Up downwards: This basically confirms the bearish reversal of January's rally, with the price breaking below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but at the moment finding Support on both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). A new rejection on the 4H MA50 and closing below the 4H MA200/ 1D MA50 cluster, will be a sell signal for us, targeting first the Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line and the 70.10 in extension on the longer term. Check also how the 1D RSI got rejected emphatically on its own Lower Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
3
WTI OIL: Top of Rising Wedge. Trade the rejection or the break.WTI Crude Oil hit the top (HH 1) of the Rising Wedge and got rejected initially but today we see a strong push back to the top. The 1D technicals are bullish (RSI = 61.888, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 33.690) and probably is what's pushing the price back to test the HH 1 again. Until the time the HH 1 breaks, we are staying neutral, but with more bearish bias. Those will be confirmed if the 4H MA50 breaks, which is the bearish trigger. Then we will sell with TP = 77.00 - 76.00, depending on the 4H MA200 as well. Then as long as the Rising Wedge and HL 1 hold, we will buy again with TP = 82.50 (R1). Break below HL1 will be an additional sell with TP = 72.50 (S2). The bullish trigger is the R1 whose top is 83.30. Above it we will buy with TP = 87.00 (R2). Previous analysis: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
WTI OIL Limited upside, significant downsideIt is time to update our WTI Oil (USOIL) thesis, which was bullish last week as the Resistance within the Channel Up broke: This time we see one last rise as a possibility since the price is rebounding on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but limited to the 83.40 Resistance. An exception can be made to an overextension to the 85.00 - 86.00 range on the red zone, which is the top (Lower Highs) limit of the 5-month Channel Down (dashed lines). On that point or if the price breaks below the 4H MA50 first, we expect a strong drop, with the downside open to at least the 70.10 Support. A more likely scenario in our opinion. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
3
Consumer savings decline, economy slows down, and EIA's forecastSince December 2022, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has been moving choppily between $70 and $83. Currently, one barrel trades near $77.50. We continue waiting on the sidelines for the market picture to clear. However, we are still unconvinced by bullish scenarios for oil, forecasting a return of $100 and above. That is because we already see a significant slowdown in economic activity around the globe and evaporating savings of consumers in the United States, both of which are likely to weigh on the oil demand in the coming months. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see USOIL break below $70 after some time. However, the U.S. administration might put a temporary floor for oil around that level due to its plans to refill Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the lower range of that price tag. As a result, this makes a compelling case for the continuation of choppy price action in oil; interestingly, that coincides with the latest assessment of the EIA. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global petroleum production will increase by 1% (1.1 million b/d) in 2023. As for U.S. petroleum production, it sees an increase of 5% (1 million barrels per day). In addition to that, it expects OPEC's output to grow by 0.5% (160 000 barrels per day), and, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and war-related sanctions, the EIA expects Russia’s production to drop by more than 12% (from 10.9 million barrels per day in 2022 to only 9.5 million barrels per day) in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stay relatively flat through the first half of 2023. After that, it expects the price to decline through the end of 2024. As a result, the agency foresees WTI crude oil to average $77 per barrel in 2023 and $72 per barrel in 2024. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. It also shows 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Yellow arrows indicate retracements toward these levels, which acted as corrections of the downtrend. We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA and whether it will halt the price rise in the future; if it fails (and the price breaks above it), it will bolster the bullish case for oil in the short term. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7
WTI OIL 4H Death Cross. Trade the break-outs.WTI Oil (USOIL) formed yesterday a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such (bearish) formation in almost 2 months (since November 17 2022). The price got rejected exactly on both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) following last week's rejection (January 03) on the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). We covered this on our last week analysis: The only pattern that is in favor of Oil rising is the Channel Up of October 18 to November 07, which held the Medium-term Support. A similar Channel Up can re-test the 1D MA50 but as always on risky set-ups, it is best to trade the break-out. That is the 76.70 Resistance, between the 4H MA200 and 4H MA50. On the downside, a break below the 72.50 Support, targets a Lower Low on the long-term Channel Down (dashed) close to 68.00. As before, keep an eye on the 1D RSI, which has a clear Lower Highs trend-line that offers solid sell entries. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
4
WTI OIL: Heavy 1DMA50 rejection. Bearish long/oversold shorttermAs WTI failed to close the 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (81.07) yesterday, it got rejected and turned heavily bearish after closing below the 4H MA50 (78.66). With 4H now on Lower Lows and the RSI approaching the oversold barrier (RSI = 32.360, MACD = -0.350, ADX = 39.455), we could expect a dead cat bounce to test the 4H MA50 and make the sell entry if you missed it, but on the medium-term my target remains 74.10. If 73.50 breaks, I will go again go short and target 70.30. All prices on my analysis are on CL NYMEX current contract in front. Previous trade:
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
Recession is poised to weigh on the oil demand and higher pricesSince our previous idea, USOIL broke above 80$ and halted its rise slightly below the 50-day SMA. After that, it faltered to 79$ handle where it currently trades. Meanwhile, we noticed bullish calls emerging all over the place. However, while we allow for the possibility of a further price increase, we do not think it will be as dramatic as many people forecast. At this point, we are very skeptical about the narrative claiming a retest of 100$ and continuation of the rally beyond this price level. That is because economic activity shows a significant decline in 2022. Furthermore, as if it was not enough, economic activity is poised to slump even more in 2023, with signs of a recession on the horizon. As a result, we expect the economic slowdown to weigh heavily on the oil demand. It would not surprise us to see the U.S. administration put more pressure on oil producers, prompting them to pump more oil out of the ground, especially if the prices continue to climb higher. In turn, that could offset some price increases and help to balance the market. Therefore, we are cautious and pay close attention to market developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement toward the 50-day SMA, which often coincides with a strong downtrend correction. In this case, the price failed to fully retrace and break above the 50-day SMA, which may hint at signs of exhaustion for the rally. Therefore, we raise our level of cautiousness. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
20
WTI OIL 4H MA50 holding as Support. Levels to buy and sell.The WTI Oil (USOIL) is having so far a full-action day as it hit the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line) for the first time since November 16 and got rejected and tested once again the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which has been holding as a Support since December 14. This is basically the same time when the short-term Channel Up emerged and as you see so far has two clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows. We had forecasted this 1D MA50 test almost a month ago based on the 1D RSI Lower Lows fractal similarities with September: This long-term Target is now done and we can only enter a new buy either after a candle close above the 1D MA50 or now with a tight SL at the bottom of the Channel Up. In both cases the target is 83.90, a new Higher High. The 4H Golden Cross pattern (MA50 crossing above 4H MA200 (orange trend-line)), hasn't always been bullish though as on October 11 it signaled the top. Ideally that should be on the 1D RSI Lower Highs trend-line, but if the price closes below the 4H MA200, it would be a late sell signal, aiming at the 73.35 Support. Tight SL on both buys and sells, and this approach should work in your favor on the medium-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL Struggling on the 1D MA50.It has been almost 20 days since our buy signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) after it hit the bottom of the (diverging) Channel Down (dashed lines): As you see, the price hit our target on the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the previous Channel Down, but yesterday failed to break the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and gor rejected downwards. If it breaks and closes above the 1D MA50 (which happens to be around the 0.5 Fibonacci), we expect one last extension to the 0.618 Fib (84.80) and max the 0.786 Fib (88.80) and test the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Diverging Channel Down. If however the price breaks and closes below the 4H MA50 (yellow trend-line), we will turn bearish instead, targeting the 73.30 Support and potentially (we will update the conditions with a new analysis) the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down. As you may remember, the basis for our buy signal early in December was the similarities with the September sell-off fractal. See how on the 1D RSI the indicator got rejected exactly on the level where on October 04 the price hit the 1D MA50. Unlike yesterday and today, the price broke above it on Oct 05 as a result giving as a significant divergence from our model. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
1
WTI Crude oil : Last chance to buy before new ATH? 18.05Inflation, inflation, inflation. In China, 15/16 districts have zero Covid cases and all restrictions are set to be cancelled by June. Globally, the disease is under control - Pretty much insuring a very busy summer for travel. So fundamentally - Crude oil has plenty of room to rise in the short-term and mid-term. When we look at the technicals we see : 1) Clear breakout and retest above triangle consolidation which led to strong bullish movement and bull trend ongoing now. 2) Clear close above key support/resistance zone of 108-109. 3) Probable immediate term target is resistance zone of 112.90 to 114.80. 4) A break above 114.80 could be strong confirmation for rally back to previous high and above. 5) Range trading between 108 to 114.80 is also very possible. Bottom line - Good chance for strong rally, downside to 108 is possible. A close below 108 would be bearish in the immediate term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean a lot. Don't hesitate to comment/ask me anything - I promise to respond to each and every one. I am not a financial advisor and encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when trading. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Exactus
16
WTI OIL Important test for the uptrend on the 4H MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been closely following our recent projections, both the perfect buy entry caught 12 days ago after spotting the Lower Lows bottom fractal similar to September 26, as well as the most recent buy 6 days ago after the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) held as Support: We are again on the 4H time-frame, with the price continuing to replicate the post September 26 rise. At the moment it is testing the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price took a 1 day pause on October 04. Our signal to continue this uptrend is a closing above the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), where we will expect a new Lower High near the diverging Channel Down (dashed line) around the Rectangle. Failure to do so, should have the price pull back and test the 4H MA50 again where a 1D closing below, will be a bearish signal for us targeting 72.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
2
WTI (CRUDE OIL) shortterm forecastHi dear traders. WTI (Crude OIL) created nice trend channel started from 73.37. Upper border of the channel is 75.60. Although, oil prices is moving between these prices from 16 December, as soon as it will jump to 77.55 level. This is my private opinion and this is good opportunity for buyers. Signal characteristics: WTI will move down firstly, then possibly impulse here. Small impulse will reach to 76.29. Then will come retracement. It will retest 75.80-76.00 secondly. As a resut, second impulse will take us to target. Of course, we need entry, take profit and stop loss levesl for signal: ENTRY: 75.62 TP 77.50 SL 74.25 Signal can reach our target during this week. Do not forget to put Stop Loss because trading without SL is gambling only. This will be non-professionalism. Good luck and follow us ))
TVC:USOILLong
by Forexcues
WTI OIL We caught a perfect buy entry, proceed as plannedOn our last WTI Oil (USOIL) analysis 6 days ago we caught the perfect buy entry after spotting the Lower Lows bottom fractal similar to September 26: That chart was on the 1D time-frame and as you see, we got a perfect rebound that, moving into today's analysis on the 4H time-frame, broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We now have a similar pull-back to September 30 and the price is testing the 4H MA50 as Support. If we get the 1D closing above it, we expect this rebound to continue at least 79.50 (which is the former Channel Down top (1st red flag), below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). If the price closes above the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), be prepared for a potential new Lower High on the diverging Channel Down (dashed lines, 2nd red flag). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL Set to rebound back to $84 based on this patternWTI Oil (USOIL) is repeating the September correction pattern, which made a September 26 Low and then rebounded aggressively. A common feature is the symmetrical Lower Lows on the 1D RSI sequences. If that rebounds here next week, we expect Oil to reach, first the top of the June Channel Down (blue circle) and if broken, then move at least to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a diverging Channel (dashed lines). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
WTI OIL Shouldn't rebound before testing this levelWTI Oil (USOIL) failed emphatically last week to break the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it was rejected just below it and made yesterday and today a new market Low. Based on the RSI sequence as well, the rejection seems similar to September 14 that ended up making a new Low on the Lower Lows Zone (since July 14) on the -0.3 Fibonacci extension. This extension is currently at 67.55 and we don't expect any meaningful rebound before testing that level. If it does, a rebound back to the 1D MA50 to test again the strength of this multi-month correction is very likely. Alternatively you can keep an eye on the 1D RSI. Once it gets oversold near 30.00, buy and if it breaks the Lower Highs trend-line, confirm the 1D MA50 target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
3