WTI Crude oil : Last chance to buy before new ATH? 18.05Inflation, inflation, inflation.
In China, 15/16 districts have zero Covid cases and all restrictions are set to be cancelled by June.
Globally, the disease is under control - Pretty much insuring a very busy summer for travel.
So fundamentally - Crude oil has plenty of room to rise in the short-term and mid-term.
When we look at the technicals we see :
1) Clear breakout and retest above triangle consolidation which led to strong bullish movement and bull trend ongoing now.
2) Clear close above key support/resistance zone of 108-109.
3) Probable immediate term target is resistance zone of 112.90 to 114.80.
4) A break above 114.80 could be strong confirmation for rally back to previous high and above.
5) Range trading between 108 to 114.80 is also very possible.
Bottom line -
Good chance for strong rally, downside to 108 is possible.
A close below 108 would be bearish in the immediate term.
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Wtioil
WTI OIL Important test for the uptrend on the 4H MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been closely following our recent projections, both the perfect buy entry caught 12 days ago after spotting the Lower Lows bottom fractal similar to September 26, as well as the most recent buy 6 days ago after the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) held as Support:
We are again on the 4H time-frame, with the price continuing to replicate the post September 26 rise. At the moment it is testing the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price took a 1 day pause on October 04. Our signal to continue this uptrend is a closing above the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), where we will expect a new Lower High near the diverging Channel Down (dashed line) around the Rectangle.
Failure to do so, should have the price pull back and test the 4H MA50 again where a 1D closing below, will be a bearish signal for us targeting 72.00.
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WTI (CRUDE OIL) shortterm forecastHi dear traders.
WTI (Crude OIL) created nice trend channel started from 73.37. Upper border of the channel is 75.60.
Although, oil prices is moving between these prices from 16 December, as soon as it will jump to 77.55 level.
This is my private opinion and this is good opportunity for buyers.
Signal characteristics:
WTI will move down firstly, then possibly impulse here. Small impulse will reach to 76.29. Then will come retracement. It will retest 75.80-76.00 secondly.
As a resut, second impulse will take us to target.
Of course, we need entry, take profit and stop loss levesl for signal:
ENTRY: 75.62
TP 77.50
SL 74.25
Signal can reach our target during this week. Do not forget to put Stop Loss because trading without SL is gambling only. This will be non-professionalism.
Good luck and follow us ))
WTI OIL We caught a perfect buy entry, proceed as plannedOn our last WTI Oil (USOIL) analysis 6 days ago we caught the perfect buy entry after spotting the Lower Lows bottom fractal similar to September 26:
That chart was on the 1D time-frame and as you see, we got a perfect rebound that, moving into today's analysis on the 4H time-frame, broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We now have a similar pull-back to September 30 and the price is testing the 4H MA50 as Support. If we get the 1D closing above it, we expect this rebound to continue at least 79.50 (which is the former Channel Down top (1st red flag), below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). If the price closes above the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line), be prepared for a potential new Lower High on the diverging Channel Down (dashed lines, 2nd red flag).
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WTI OIL Set to rebound back to $84 based on this patternWTI Oil (USOIL) is repeating the September correction pattern, which made a September 26 Low and then rebounded aggressively. A common feature is the symmetrical Lower Lows on the 1D RSI sequences. If that rebounds here next week, we expect Oil to reach, first the top of the June Channel Down (blue circle) and if broken, then move at least to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a diverging Channel (dashed lines).
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WTI OIL Shouldn't rebound before testing this levelWTI Oil (USOIL) failed emphatically last week to break the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it was rejected just below it and made yesterday and today a new market Low. Based on the RSI sequence as well, the rejection seems similar to September 14 that ended up making a new Low on the Lower Lows Zone (since July 14) on the -0.3 Fibonacci extension.
This extension is currently at 67.55 and we don't expect any meaningful rebound before testing that level. If it does, a rebound back to the 1D MA50 to test again the strength of this multi-month correction is very likely.
Alternatively you can keep an eye on the 1D RSI. Once it gets oversold near 30.00, buy and if it breaks the Lower Highs trend-line, confirm the 1D MA50 target.
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WTI OIL: Support broken, targeting 70.00The price eventually dived back to the 74.00 Support as the previous Low was compromised. The 4H MA50 is near oversold territory (RSI = 34.019, MACD = -2.320, ADX = 29.655) and since November 10th that has always caused a +5.50% rebound at least but since 73.00 broke, that means more heavy selling to 70.00.
Notice the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that is being repeated inside the Channel Down since June. The past two time after the Head/ Support broke, the price made a Lower Low on the 1.236 Fibonacci, with the 1D RSI hitting also a Lower Lows Support. Every rebound to the 4H MA50 (blue), is a sell opportunity until 70.00 gets hit.
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China's turmoil, SPRs, and further deterioration in outlookIn our previous update on West Texas Intermediate crude oil, we updated our price target from long-term to medium-term. Additionally, we stated that this price target could soon become short-term, depending on oil market developments. Today, finally, USOIL hit a new yearly low at 73.62$, further confirming our bearish thesis. Accordingly, we continue to maintain our price target at 70$.
Our views are based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors. We expect the global recession to weigh heavily on oil prices in the coming months. In addition to that, we expect the United States to offset any price increases with more releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR).
As if it was not enough, turmoil in China also does not support the bullish narrative, putting higher prices at risk. The same applies to OPEC member countries that seek to increase their production despite a slowing economy. Overall, we have no reason to change our bearish outlook.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The illustration shows the daily chart of USOIL, simple support/resistance levels, and two moving averages. At the moment, the price appears too far from these moving averages, likely foreshadowing a correction to the upside (as the price deviated too far from its MAs). Now, these MAs act as significant resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL 5th DECEMBER 2022Organization of Petroleum Exporters and its Allies (OPEC+) maintained production cuts, keeping production at 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November to 2023. Oil prices weakened as China's zero-covid policy weighed on demand. However, after the regulation was relaxed in a number of cities including Beijing and Shanghai, oil prices slowly moved up. WTI and Brent oil are significantly bullish, this is partly driven by the easing of China's covid-19 lockdown.
Technically, oil prices are still in a bearish trend, but bullish is possible in the next few days until the resistance area. recommendation to sell in the resistance area marked by the red area. Prices can go higher, pay attention to several points that can make oil prices tend to be bullish: opec policy, easing lockdown in china, and weakening USD.
WTI OIL Inverse H&S completed. Ready for a $90 rebound?The WTI Oil (USOIL) materialized the rebound that we called on Monday exactly on the 73.60 bottom:
The pull-back since yesterday's High is close to the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) and is similar to the one during September 29/30, which is within the rebound sequence we've been modelling the new rebound from. The Channel Up (green) doesn't need to be as aggressive as then but the 1D RSI seems to be right on track also rebounding near oversold levels.
This time we see a clear Inverse Head & Shoulders forming (IH&S), basically about to get completed, which is a technical reversal pattern found on market bottoms. Short-term traders can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. On the longer term we expect the price to reach the Zone within the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (89.45) and the 90.15 Symmetrical Resistance.
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TRADE THE OPEC CHANNEL - LONG & SHORTI've done a full blown video on the analysis of this trade see my idea links below and the ideas behind the pin bar reversal price action training chart (how to enter the trade).
We're in a downtrend so this possible reversal so i recommend a smaller risk trade,
Beginners - Take profits on the way up after taking T1, move T1 and T2 your stops to zero (No risk)
Advanced - leave your stops alone, you know this thing could reverse back and bouce up, like it did Friday 25th Nov.
The buyers are in our favour on a move lower into the SPR and OPEC buying zone.
Take profits at T1 and let the rest of the trade run up to T2 and T3
Oil buyers step in at $72/bbl: Is the downside limited?The oil market has seen a lot of activity, with recent developments mostly easing worries about market tightness.
In China, Covid-related restrictions have been reinstalled in major cities, triggering rare protests and consequently reducing outlook for oil consumption, in striking contrast to perceived moves to reopen the economy at the beginning of November.
On the supply side, reports that the United States granted Chevron Corp permission to restart oil production in Venezuela, as well as Iraq's statement that it will add 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day of oil export capacity by 2025, weighed on oil prices.
The oil future curve is no longer in a backwardation state. The price premium that spot WTI held over its future contracts ( 3A1! ; 4A1! ; 5A1! ) has been fully wiped away by the most recent leg of oil depreciation. In essence, the spot price of oil is currently trading at par compared to its 6-month future delivery, indicating that the market is not currently concerned about prompt supply.
This condition has not been observed since January 2021, and it may be prudent to be wary of surprises at this time.
Bad news is priced, but positive catalysts are still to come?
With most bad news already priced in by the market, it may take something new to stop oil prices from falling. In October, the US White House signalled that it intends to repurchase crude to replenish its SPR stocks when WTI prices are at or below about $65/bbl and $72/bbl. Consequently, this area could present a strong price support and thus limit the downside relative to current market prices.
Additionally, supply-side risks have not completely disappeared. The G7 has postponed a price ceiling on Russian oil, but Russia said that it may retaliate, restricting supply, if the G7 applies a price cap. In view of recent market developments, OPEC+ could also reinforce its very restrictive supply strategy on Sunday, December 4th.
Dip buying to resume at $72?
Technically speaking, oil has revised its lows for 2022 and is currently experiencing a negative year-to-date performance.
The most recent wave of decline was dramatic, bringing the daily RSI close to oversold territory. In the past, massive selloffs in oil prices, with the daily RSI in oversold territory, produced some near-term price recovery. WTI prices are currently 14% and 30% below their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which appears overly pessimistic considering the persistence of upside risks.
Given how sharp the recent downward trend was and the fact that a positive catalyst might happen soon, dip buying may start to come back at these levels.
WTI OIL Strong rebound on oversold RSI Resistance.The WTI Oil (USOIL) almost turned oversold on its 1D RSI today and the last time it approached the 30.000 level was on September 26. That was the low of the multi-month downtrend, with Oil making a counter trend rebound to 93.65 in just 10 days!
On the short-term, the Resistance that has been intact since November 15 is the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). Breaking above it would be confirmation of the rebound extension. On the medium-term the target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). On the long-term it can be within 89.50 - 90.00, the first is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the second represents a +22.60% rise, identical with the rise of September 26 - October 10.
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WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKCrude Oil benchmark WTI broke its previous established support at 81.75 and continued its downtrend through Wednesday after G7 talk for implementing a price cap on Russian supply. The mark cap of 65-70 USD per barrel was higher than the market expected, which elevate some of the fears of supply distribution of the oil. Another positive news for the global oil supply is that Chervon Corp. might expand operations in Venezuela.
Both MACD and RSI technical indicators are confirming the downtrend with MACD histogram below the 0 line and RSI below the 50 neutral line.
If the trend continues the price might try to reach levels of 73.65 or even 70.47 In the opposite scenario, the price might revert and test its resistance at 81.75
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WTI OIL Buy opportunity to 83.00 and 86.00 short-termWTI Oil (USOIL) posted a Bull Flag pattern today similar to September 28 - 30, which is the rebound formation is shares many similarities with. The drop that led to the bottom on both sequences is very similar and you can see that by plotting the September 14 - 26 on November 09 - 18.
The 4H MACD is also on the same pattern, it appears that the price is on the cross point (red flag). The target is now the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) with an early projected hit at 83.00 and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) around 86.00.
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WTI OIL: Strong bottom formation. 4H MA50 and MA200 eyed.Massive development yesterday as Oil broke even below the 76.20 Support of the September 26th Low and reached as low as 75.30 before a massive rebound back to 80.00 that almost closed the day with no losses. This turned 4H neutral again (RSI = 45.032, MACD = -1.560, ADX = 33.080). Since the price broke above the 1H MA50 (yellow) again, we have a confirmed bullish continuation and the target is the 4H MA50 (blue) and 4H MA200 (orange) in extension.
Watch how this is so far the very same Inverted Head and Shoulders bottom into rebound formation as on the September 26th Low. That rebound hit the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 and formed a Resistance level at 93.65 that was pushed to 93.75 on the November 7th High. We can't yet call for such a high test this time as there is the 1D MA100 (red) posing as a Resistance first, just above the 4H MA200.
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WTI OIL: Can have a huge upswing long term.Crude Oil seems to be virtually repeating since November 2020 the past Cycle that started after the January 2009 recession bottom. All levels are the same and even though this March 2022 top smashed through the symmetric Resistance Zone due to the war in Ukraine, it pulled back below it.
Right now the price is rebounding on the Huge Pivot line as in August 2011 (see the Pivot acted as a Resistance on October 2018) after being rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue line). The RSI is also a copy paste of that period. The model suggests that WTI oil as long as it closes this week above the 1W MA100 (green), it should break above the 1W MA50 again and test the Resistance Zone again. There is also a Rising Support (Higher Lows) below since March 2021, which was also present from July 2009 to August 2014. The strongest technical support is the 1W MA200 (orange). It will be really interesting to see how the market handles this input.
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WTI OIL Strong Support cluster. Fractal pointing to $93.00.The WTI Oil (USOIL) followed the exact projection we made earlier this week, as after a rebound to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it got rejected again and even broke as low as the Support Zone 1:
By doing so it reached the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is the most important long-term Support. Last time it hit that level (September 26), it made an incredible rebound immediately. As you see we projected this drop on the bearish fractal of October 10 - 18. Plotting (yellow line) it on the price action since the November 07 rejection, it made a fairly accurate projection. This time we even looked at the September 14 - 26 bearish leg and as you see, the yellow fractal fits that one fairly well too. Also the resemblances between their 4H MACD sequences are evident.
Technically the 1W MA100 should hold and provide a rebound first to the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and then towards the 93.75 Resistance. As with the September 26 bottom, we give it a small tolerance limit to allow for a fake-out. If this is exceeded, we'll take it as a sell break-out signal, targeting the 77.25 - 76.25 Support Zone (2).
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