WTI oil - The EU ban on Russian oil risks higher pricesRecently, we stated that USOIL has bottomed out and is due to drift lower during the rest of the year. We continue to maintain this stance. However, over the past few days, there has been an increase in talks about the EU ban on Russian oil. Indeed, several media outlets reported that the EU is about to proceed with this step. Though, it is just a rumor at the moment. But if the EU manages to ban Russian oil, it will force us to abandon bearish bias for USOIL. Actually, in such a case, we think the oil ban would revive the rally and drag prices higher, possibly reaching a new high.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows USOIL on the daily time frame. It also shows the resistance at a slope (white line) and the bullish breakout above it (indicated by the yellow arrow). We will look for a potential breakdown in price and invalidation of the bullish breakout.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are bearish. However, MACD is trying to break above 0 points into the bullish zone. If it manages to do so, it will bolster the case for USOIL. Stochastic reversed to the upside and points in the bullish direction. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. However, ADX contains a low value, indicating no significant trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI started to flatten recently. However, its bearish structure remains intact. MACD is in the bullish zone; however, it began to decline first and then flatten. Stochastic is bearish. DM+ and DM- signal bullish conditions in the market. ADX declines, which suggests that the prior bullish trend of a higher degree is weakening. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above portrays the weekly RSI of USOIL. The bearish structure can be seen intact.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Wtioil
WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance.
Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break.
A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling.
A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario.
The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone.
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WTIUSD OIL bearish mediumtermWTIUSD OIL bearish
WTI broke below a key long-term pennant that had been squeezing the price action earlier in the week, with some technicians taking this as a sign that WTI will fall back towards support in the $90 area.
Projection would be 60. But on Mediumterm i think we will have conditions to go to 93.50 or 90.00. Would be our targets.
I will be a false breakout we will recover to retest ma50 4h near 102 area.
For now seems we retested today the pennant and we have conditions to have an impulse to the downside.
Targets. Supports, Resistances on chart.
I will love to read your comments. Please put a like, join use following and give us your comment.
Be carefull, patient and discipline.
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This Plan can be changed anytime, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not.
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WTIOIL: BEARS ON TOPRecently WTI OIL is trading below its trend line as well as above its support price 99, price is under EMA 10. There is lack of transparency in the direction. The is a bit conjuction in signals from indicators. No trade is currently recommended. If one have opened a fresh long position than strictly keep stop loss at 92 and for the short holder 99 is stop loss.
WTI must give its breakout either side to clarify the trend..
USDWTI : INTRADAY VIEWWTI is been consolidating b/w 99-106 and avoiding volitlty since 3 days. But when you look at chart it clearly state that there is strong support and a trend line i.e helping wti sustain above 99.
WHAT DOES CHART SAY FOR TODAY(INTRADAY)
WTI can take a small dip again to 99-100 taking support and will sustain above the trend line underlying at 98.5
HOW TO TRADE PROFITABLE TODAY?
I would suggest buy on dip would be great deal for today. As after taking the support of trend line at 99-100 WTI may enter into uptrend and will change its dynamics from consolidation to Bullish A-B-C patter.
You can take a small quantity at 99.5 the accumulating quantity on every dip would be a great DEAL for LONG traders.
And for INTRADAY traders 105 would be Profit booking price.
WTI OIL is correcting. Continue to fall or new rally ahead?A month ago when WTI Oil was testing historic Highs due to the escalation of the Ukraine - Russia war, I called for the need to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
That day turned out to be the market top (to this date) and Oil did pull-back to the 1D MA50. In fact after the first 1D MA50 test (and hold), the price rebounded but only managed to make a Lower High and eventually got rejected back towards the 1D MA50 again, which held (so far) for the 2nd time. It is obvious that as long as it holds, it makes a stronger case for a new rebound. If that breaks above the prior Lower High/ Resistance of 117.00, then we can claim that the long-term bullish trend will be extended and in the next 3 months we will see successive Higher Highs. The basis for this, as I also analyzed on my March 08 analysis, is the similarities of the past 6 months of Oil's price action with the September 2020 - March 2021 sequence.
On the other hand, if the 1D MA50 fails and a 1D candle closes below it, WTI should seek the next Resistance Zone which consists of the Prior High of 85.50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 80.75. A closing below the 1D MA200, could open the way to a new Bear Cycle.
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WTI OIL Can the death fractal of 2008 be repeated?We haven't looked into WTI Oil recently, the last post I made was on March 08, calling what I thought at the time as the medium-term peak:
The price did eventually pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded as it constitutes the medium-term Support, following the March 2021 sequence.
On a much larger scale though, and since the war isn't over yet and inflation runs wild, I thought it would be beneficial looking at the last time similar conditions were leading the Oil market higher. Sadly, that was during the 2008 peak of the U.S. Housing Bubble.
As you see, today's 2021-2022 fractal can be related to a great extent to the 2007-2008 sequence. If the market dynamics have been indeed aligned as in 2008, then Oil has entered the final phase towards the blow-off top, as it rebounded on its 1D MA50. Now of course, reaching the 2.382 Fibonacci extension around $178.00 for a blow-off top, seems even under the latest aggressive conditions, as unrealistic. But a value around $150.00 as a Higher High to the March 08 shock, could very well be printed.
Do you think the market will follow in 2008's footsteps and if so what is your projected top?
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🛢️ CRUDE OIL - 17% Higher Since our PERFECT Post 🦉💙
Our previous Oil post was perfectly on support. It is now over 17% higher since our entry.
Even more impressively, you may go back to our post on March 3rd:
also here:
and here:
Pure perfection..FXPROFESSOR style
OIL PRICES:
War in Ukraine is the biggest issue here. Inflation equally the other big issue. Then again you know a lot about these 2 factors but there is a third one:
Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales
Talks between Riyadh and Beijing have accelerated as the Saudi unhappiness grows with Washington.
Unfortunately we must keep our eyes open on all these and pray for the best. Situation is not a good one.
Keep safe people.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
OIL trend has changed. Big profits on shortA simple analysis of the trend without indicators just following the basic trendline guidance.
As we see with don't have an uptrend anymore and that will be more clear the next 2 days.
If nothing bad happens again between Russia and Ukraine i think we will go back to the 80-90 dollar region fast.
So we go short expecting huge decline and high profit.
Good Luck to all, hope you all make money this week.
USOIL formed a breakout and retest pack on the 110 resistanceMarket Instrument: USOIL
Timeframe: Weekly
Analysis: Technical
Structure: Resistance Breakout and Pull Back
Prediction: Bullish
USOIL has successfully breached the resistance formed at 110 with a huge buying pressure with the war between Russia and Ukraine. So if the following price action is not going for a fake-out on the breakout formed. Then we may see a continuation of this bull rally towards the next resistance formed close to 146 which has happened during 2008. And fall hard rejecting at the 110 area will invalidate the setup.
There's 90% chance this is the bottom of the $oil pricehistoric falls of oil shows 77% before the next rally. we might be at the end of it. current drop is 77% from near top.
also to notice this is making massive falling wedge, for this to be reality. oil has to close above 20$ on weekly chart. which is most possibly as looking at shorts are very high. short squeez is immanent.
WTI OIL in need of a pull-back to the 1D MA50.One of the biggest (if not the biggest) winner of the current war between Russian and Ukraine, is Oil. Energy crises are almost a certainty in times of geopolitical conflicts involving major producers. Even though it is tough predicting technically WTI prices while war is ongoing, charting past fractals could give an idea to where, at least the next consolidation phase could be.
The price action from November 2021 to today has been so far fairly similar to the sequence from November 2020 to March 2021. Both have gone on a slightly above +100% rise since their November lows. Right now the current 1D RSI sequence is exactly on the February 17 2021 RSI top, which prompted the price to enter a Channel Up that eventually led to a Top two weeks later.
Based on this and of course assuming that the war is entering its final stage and will not escalate into a multi-month conflict involving more countries, WTI Oil may be entering an exhaustion channel that will eventually lead to a pull-back on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is what happened in March 2021. After that, and depending on how the geopolitical stage will look like, we will re-evaluate our thesis.
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CRUDE OIL, Paramount Breakouts + Growing Demand Means Bullish!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about WTI CRUDE OIL and the monthly timeframe perspectives. Since the Russia-Ukraine-Conflict began we can see many countries upfront with the E.U. sanctioning Russia and preventing Oil exports out of Russia, cutting off all supply chains including oil. These developments mean there is a growing demand for oil and gas on the world market because Russia normally holds 12% of the whole world's oil and gas exports and therefore countries need to move to other sources of oil and gas and as countries, especially in the E.U. have normally almost 40% of their oil and gas imported from Russia there is also a falling supply combined with growing demand on the world market showing the fuel for the steep rising in prices we have seen so far in the recent times. In my chart, you can watch how WTI CRUDE OIL already completed this massive descending-triangle-formation, and now recently with these developments also moved with heavy volatility above the major 10-Year-Resistance marking in my chart. All these developments point to a continuation of the bullish volatility that was established over the recent days, also the main descending-triangle-target-zone marked in my chart has an increased likelihood to be reached with the current dynamics.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.