WTI Oil Turning Parabolic 82.50Since WTI Oil broke the former two Resistance levels (74.15 and 77.00), the price turned parabolic outside the Channel Up that dominated most of the price action in September. There seems to be a Buy/ Support Zone consisting of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and a Resistance Zone on the RSI Higher Highs trend-line.
Technically those two pressure levels should provide the next dip buy and target. I've applied the Fibonacci Channel to assist in finding the target and as you see every Fib extension prices a Higher High (1.0, 1.5, 2.0). Naturally the 2.5 Fib extension is next, I project a Higher High around $82.50.
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Wtioil
USOILSPOT - ShortThe pair has carved out a five wave decline followed by a three wave rally (which could extend a little further). Whether the two big waves are part of an impulsive wave lower (1-2) or part of a zigzag correction (A-B), another leg lower should follow, targeting the 0.8650 support. This idea is viable as long as we trade below the 94.00 resistance.
WTI OIL Head and Shoulders top on the Megaphone?I haven't updated my WTI Oil thesis since the start of the month when I first started calling for a potential market top and a stop to buying activity.
Well this top may have been formed now as WTI has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, right at the top (with the Head actually slightly above it) of the Megaphone pattern. Also that took place exactly on the Ichimoku Squeeze which was a marker for the prior Higher High of the Megaphone on October 25 2021. On top of all that, the 1D RSI got rejected, in fact made a Double Top rejection exactly on its 77.00 Resistance, which made the rejections of the two previous Higher Highs of the Megaphone on July 05 and October 25 2021.
I am expecting the price to start pulling back this week or by next the latest (depending of course on the Ukraine conflict) and correct towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term.
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Crude Oil Finds Buyers on Dips | WTIWTI crude oil prices remain on the front foot at around $91.45, up 1.30% intraday while consolidating the first weekly loss in nine during Monday’s Asian session.
Although fears among the energy bulls could be spotted as the key catalyst for the black gold’s first weekly loss in multiple weeks, geopolitical noise surrounding Russia and Ukraine joins the OPEC+ supply concerns to keep WTI buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting that the Fed’s rate hike chatters and inflation woes add to the upside filters of the energy prices.
That said, Ukraine and the West continue to suggest an imminent Russian military attack on Ukraine. However, Moscow rejects the claims. Recently, a Reuters’ witness said, “Explosion was heard in the center of the rebel-held city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.” It’s worth noting that a diplomatic meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov can provide a ray of hope to witness a de-escalation of the geopolitical fears and hence the WTI bulls take a cautious approach ahead of the key meeting outcome.
Elsewhere, the OPEC+, a group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, struggle to match the output hike promises. Recently, OPEC President Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua mentioned that the oil supply is not now enough and blamed oil companies for not investing enough. "OPEC+ should stick to its current agreement to add 400,000 barrels of oil per day each month to output, ministers of Arab oil-producing countries said on Sunday as they gathered in Saudi Arabia, rejecting calls to pump more to ease pressure on prices," said Reuters.
Alternatively, fears of the Fed’s faster rate hikes and inflation woes challenge oil traders at multi-month highs. On the same line is the latest risk-off mood, portrayed by downbeat US Treasury yields and stock futures.
WTI crude oil traders will keep their eyes on the Russia-Ukraine developments for fresh impulse ahead of the key US-Russia meeting late in the week. Should the tension de-escalate, the odds of witnessing a sharp pullback in the oil prices can’t be ruled out.
Technical analysis:
The 21-DMA precedes a monthly support line, respectively around $89.10 and $87.95, to limit WTI pullback. However, firmer RSI and ability to stay beyond key supports, not to forget strong fundamentals, keep oil buyers hopeful to renew 2022 high, currently around $94.00.
- WTI bulls keep reins despite snapping an eight-week uptrend.
- US highlights possibilities of imminent Russian invasion, Moscow rejects claims.
- DXY fails to cheer risk-off mood amid downbeat yields.
- Fedspeak, PBOC rate decision may offer immediate catalysts, PMIs, US PCE Inflation will be crucial.
- It's important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long-term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
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| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
S&P500 and WTI OIL remarkable divergence and convergence patternEver since the COVID recovery started, both the S&P500 index and the WTI Oil, have followed similar courses, especially since the start of 2021. There is a very interesting pattern of divergence and convergence, which the two follow on a consistent basis.
As this chart on the 1D time-frame shows, when S&P500 (blue trend-line) diverges from the shared upward path with WTI (black trend-line), within the blue zone, they have always converged back (yellow zone). Ever since mid January 2022, it is WTI that diverged from the S&P500 as the index dropped violently while WTI continued its rapid price growth. Last time this happened was in the mid Feb 2021 - mid March 2021 Divergence, as the other two Divergence Phases, it was the S&P500 that rapidly expanded while WTI was correcting.
Naturally, if this pattern continues to play out, we should now have a new Convergence phase where the two assets cross trend-lines again and continue their course when they will eventually diverge again. This means that we should be expecting S&P to recover while WTI pulls back from its current highs.
Do you think that will be the case? Let me know in the comments section below.
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USOIL Head and shoulder formation. Potential sell The USOIL is forming the right Shoulder of an Head and Shoulder formation. This is a reversal sign and we expect the price to drop once the shoulder is completed.
Watch out for the breaking of trend line to enter a sell position.
There are 3 potential targets with the first one more conservative and the second and third more aggressive.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (17th January 2022)WTI oil continues to march higher and we continue to maintain a bullish outlook on oil. Our view is supported by a combination of bullish technical and fundamental factors. Currently, we will observe whether USOIL will manage to break above the major resistance at 85.39 USD which will further bolster the bullish case for WTI oil. We would like to set a new short-term price target for USOIL to 85 USD per barrel. Our long-term price target is 90 USD per barrel.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bullish and due to perform crossover above 70 points (into overbought zone). We expect such a phenomenon to be accompanied by further rise in price. However, after completion of crossover we think it is likely that price will retrace lower before continuing towards a price tag of 90 USD per barrel. MACD and Stochastic are also bullish. DM+ and DM- signal bullish trend. Additionally, ADX exhibits growth which suggests that the prevailing bullish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bullish. Same applies to MACD and Stochastic. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover recently. ADX undergoes reset as it declines. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Support and resistance
Major resistance sits at 85.39 USD while major support lies at 61.76 USD. Support 1 sits at 80.81 USD and Support 2 at 78.28 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL Potential Market Top. Time to sell again? Risk involved.Those who follow me for a long time here and on Reddit know how bullish I've been on WTI since the rescue packages arrived in 2020. Since March 08 2021, though a new and very well structured Megaphone pattern has emerged that has allowed us to trade both directions with high efficiency. Most recently, since November 30 to be exact, I've started with buy trades on the expected rally to the Higher Highs trend-line of this Megaphone:
All targets during that leg have been accomplished and now WTI Oil is getting very close to the top of the pattern. Notice that during the previous rally of late August - late October 2021, this Top was projected by the Ichimoku squeeze. This squeeze is only 1 week away, so technically it is a valid strategy to start selling again. Now of course selling a long-term bullish market is a counter-trend move and involves higher risk than dip buying, so approach this strategy in accordance to your risk tolerance.
Technically, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or at least the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is a viable option.
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Short Oil to $75?In order for the uptrend to remain intact, price would need to hold above the $83 level as support. However, because the moving averages on the ichimoku are really spread apart, it tells me price needs to snap back to equilibrium before a continuation of the uptrend.
I think it's likely that price move back to the $75 range before a continuation of an upside move.
CRUDE OILWe can see the formation of a head and shoulders pattern on oil. We expect the decline, targeting the level of 70 as the first target and 55 as the second target. 53 The third target, the stop loss will be at the level 92, For a safe entry, wait for the trend line to break, the entry area when the price formed the double top
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (3rd January 2022)WTI oil rose over 20% since its low at 61.46 USD on 2nd December 2021. We previously noted that weakness in the general stock market posed a threat for further rise of the price of USOIL in the short-term. However, since then the general stock market seems to stabilize. Because of that we regained our bullish view; additionally, we would like to set a short-term price target for USOIL to 77 USD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI continues to develop bullish structure. Stochastic is also bullish and MACD performed a bullish crossover above 0 points which further bolsters the bullish case for USOIL. DM+ and DM- show mixed conditions; and ADX declined substantially which suggests that the prevailing trend lost strength.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI points to the upside which is bullish. Stochastic is bullish too and MACD started to flatten (still in the bullish zone). We will observe MACD in the following weeks and we will watch out whether it manages to stay within the bullish zone and reverse back to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions while ADX continues to decline. Though, ADX's value is a little bit higher than the value of ADX on a daily time frame.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the weekly chart of USOIL. It also shows setup for head and shoulders being formed. We will observe whether this pattern will continue to develop further. However, at the moment, we believe this pattern will get distorted and price will continue higher.
Support and resistance
Following support and resistance levels are derived from the peaks and troughs in price of USOIL. Short-term support sits at 73.30 USD and short-term resistance lies at 77.41 USD. Next closest resistance appears at 79.20 USD and then at 81.78 USD. Major resistance lies at 85.39 USD. Major support level can be found at 61.76 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
OIL Analysis. Buy and Sell POIs marked
Will look for a Sell or a buy in the marked POIs. No direct entries.
Risk 1% and aiming for 10% on this trade. No indicators used. Pure price action. Like to keep my chart clean. Simply trading structure, nothing else!!
All trades closed on the same day. Entries are taken on 1 min or lower timeframes. Stop loss is moved to cost after structure break. Don't chase the trades, wait for the next opportunity.
Also, please view price action on 1 min chart if you're following my entries. It will make sense. Trading view doesn't allow to post entries on charts smaller than 15 minutes.
Mostly trade 12-5pm UK time NY session. Sometimes London Session. Don't like the idea of watching charts the whole day.
OIL: Huge Head & ShouldersWow! Could this be the right shoulders forming on OIL?
The remaining imbalance is being filled and we are creeping up into the main supply, if we see rejections, we could have a bearish move all the way down into the equal lows.
Traders, if you have your own opinion about this idea, write in the comments section, I always reply.
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Trading Crypto, Futures, Forex, CFDs, and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use a tight stop loss.
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