WTI OIL Rejection on the 1D MA50Pattern: Megaphone on the 1D time-frame.
Signal: Sell as the price has been rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and buy before it touches the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or when the RSI hits the Support Zone.
Target: 85.40 (the October 23 High).
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Wtioil
🛢️ Crude Oil - Wti Back to 70,64 🚢🔱Don't fill your tanks (or tankers) yet because we see an unchecked level at 70,64$ that will most likely need to be checked.
High dollar, inflation worries, Oil must be 'controlled' and the battle to tame inflation. Biden knows, Europe knows, China knows.
Price is under an ascending channel and this is a highly bearish signal that triggered the correction. Price is attempting to rise but the 80$ mark is a technical and psychological resistance that will be hard to breach over.
Fill your tanks and tankers next month.
the FXPROFESSOR
CL USOIL (WTI OIL) Possible Bullish BatCL USOIL (WTI Oil) is forming what it looks like a possible bullish bat formation.
As more my liking, I do not like how high the C point is at however if the pattern is completed, the formation still valid. The price must test the zones after the 0.382 time zone in order for the pattern to be valid, if price does it before then a trade should not be considered.
Just because the price is forming the structure does not mean that the price will reach such area but if it does, and if it is after the 0.382 time zone, then it will be wise to look at price action to see if it provides with a valid entry opportunity to enter a long trade. If it does not provide a confirmation then a trade should not be entered.
Be patient, always wait for your trade set ups to be completed, wait for a confirmation, follow your rules!.
WTI OIL can go much lower based on this patternIt was exactly one month ago (October 19) when I reversed my bullish thesis on WTI Crude Oil, calling for a top and a reversal:
As you see, the top got priced exactly on the March Higher Highs trend-line and the rejection successfully took place. Even early into November, the Lower Highs peak formation was clear:
Back to today. In my firm's outlook, since the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) broke, the only level that may support Oil is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and that only temporarily. Why? Because this is what happened last time on July 20, a short-term hold there followed by a dead-cat bounce above the 1D MA50 again only to serve as a new rejection towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price eventually made the bottom.
As you see, the major pattern since March is a Bullish Megaphone which besides the Higher Highs, has also a Higher Lows trend-line that Supports. A new contact with that trend-line would be on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which was where the bottom was formed last time on the Higher Lows trend-line in August 20. Corrections of -15% are common within this Megaphone pattern and another such correction would make a low right above the 1D MA200, which I believe will be the bottom and will prevail over a deeper contact on the Higher Lows trend-line.
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (18th November 2021)We abandoned short-term price target of 85 USD in our previous idea (as correction resumed). In addition to that, we noted that it was very likely that price would drop towards 78 USD. Currently, USOIL trades slightly below that level. We will observe WTI oil in the following days and we will look for more weakness or possible end of correction. Though, at the moment, we think it is likely correction will continue little further towards 76 USD. Because of that we will watch support level at 76.95 USD; and we will observe whether this support will be able to hold further selling pressure. Technical analysis on daily time frame suggests more weakness for oil. Despite that, we think current price is very attractive to start considering (re)entry of long position in WTI oil, however, with big cautiousness.
Picture below shows USOIL on daily time frame.
It also shows possibility of bearish breakout below crucial support level at 76.95 USD. If this support is broken then we expect price to drop even further.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are very bearish as they continue to move downward. MACD is also very bearish. Indeed, MACD nears crossover into bearish area. If MACD manages to perform crossover then we expect such occurence to be accompanied by more selling pressure. ADX contains low value which suggests that trend is either neutral or very weak. Technicals are overall bearish and suggest more trouble ahead for USOIL.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI has bearish structure. MACD remains in bullish territory, however, it strives to reverse into downside. Similarly, Stochastic is in bullish area but it already reversed its direction into downside. DM+ and DM- still suggest that bullish trend is present but ADX continues to decline which reflects that this trend is weakening.
Support and resistance
Major resistance sits at 85.39 USD while major support lies at 61.58 USD. Short-term support level sits at 76.95 USD. Another (closest) important support appears at 75 USD (as psychological support).
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
USOIL LONGNews:
The Biden administration has asked some of the world`s largest oil consuming nations - including China, India and Japan - to consider releasing crude stockpiles in a coordinated effort to lower global energy prices, according to several people familiar with the matter.
The unusual request comes as US President Joe Biden fends off political pressure over rising pump prices and other consumer costs driven by a rebound in economic activity from lows plumbed early in the coronavirus pandemic.
We are thoroughly reviewing the U.S. request, however, we do not release oil reserve because of rising oil prices. We could release oil reserve in case of supply imbalance, but not to respond to rising oil prices," the official said.
WTI Cude (OIL) SELL TRADE IDEA
💹WTI Crude Oil ⏬ SELL @ 80.99
✅TP-1# 80.09
✅TP-2# 79.10
✅TP-3# 78.10
⛔️SL 82.00
N.B- If have small balance to trade. Plz avoid OIL trade now.
Because market highly volatile.
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
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WTI OIL Bearish Reversal patternWTI Oil is on a typical Bearish Reversal pattern and the first signs of this were given last week as posted on my most recent analysis:
Right now the price is on Lower Highs, similar to the July peak and reversal fractal. If a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bearish Cross is formed, it will confirm the sell target of the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That is currently around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and even though the price may dip even lower, that is a solid short-term short target.
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (28th October 2021)On 25th October 2021 USOIL reached our price target of 85 USD per barrel. After that we announced that we would not be surprised to see shortlived correction since USOIL reached overbought condition in the short-term. Now it is clear that price retraced from high of 85.39 USD to as low as 80.62 USD today. It is likely that correction will continue little longer since indicators point to more downside. In short-term we are bearish and we will observe whether support at 80 USD will manage to stop selling pressure. However, in long-term we remain bullish and we think that current price drop presents good opportunity for long position (re)entry. Our long-term price target remains 90 USD.
Technical analysis
RSI penetrated 70 points to downside. It is bearish. MACD and Stochastic also turned bearish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform bearish crossover. ADX started to decrease from recent peak. Price retraced towards 20-day SMA. We will observe whether price manages to hold above 20-day SMA which would be bullish sign. Overall technical analysis is very bearish for WTI oil.
1-day RSI:
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance sits at 82.60 USD while major resistance sits at 85.39 USD. Support 1 appears at 80 USD and Support 2 sits at 76.95 USD. Support 3 lies at 74.21 USD. Major support sits at 61.58 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
OIL SALES? After reaching the 261% fibbo extension, hitting the guideline of the last two highs on the high side, after 9 consecutive weekly green candles and plus the sum of the first low of the uptrend since 60 is a good time to think about sales. no?
This last weekly candle has left us a curious wick and the formation of an MHM, apart from all this we have to bear in mind that the price comes with a lot of upward force due to this we have to watch for false leaks at the maximum.
I don't want to waste too much. Greetings and good luck.
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen rather hard to kick off the trading session on Thursday, but as you can see, we have rallied quite drastically to recapture the $82.50 region. By doing so, we ended up forming a bit of a hammer, which of course is a bullish sign. By doing so, I do think that it is only a matter of time before we continue to go higher. After all, we are in a very strong uptrend and that has not changed, despite the fact that we have pulled back over the last couple of days. Looking at this chart, the $80 level underneath is significant support, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The $80 level underneath has been important more than once, so therefore I think we will continue to pay close attention to it. At this point, I like the idea of picking up bits and pieces of value on dips, as the crude oil market has been so heavily influenced by the reopening trade and of course the fact that we are looking very likely to continue to see demand pick up due to the fact that there was so little in the way of capital expenditure over the last several months, and of course there has been an increase in burn rate. Furthermore, other forms of energy have failed miserably, and therefore power plants are being forced to burn petroleum as well. With the noisy behavior, I think it is only a matter of time before we see this market go looking towards the $85 level. The $85 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and one that will be a target. If we can break above there, then it is likely that this market takes out to the upside.
Underneath, the $80 level should offer quite a bit of psychological and structural support, so that being said it is likely that we will see plenty of buyers in that area. The 50 day EMA currently sits just above the $75 level, and it does suggest a certain amount of resiliency and could be the “floor the market” going forward. Regardless, this is a longer-term uptrend, and we cannot fight it. Energy demand will continue to be very strong going forward, and therefore we should continue towards $90 over the longer term.
WTI OIL Reversal confirmed if daily closes below the 4H MA100Even though my firms thesis has been very bullish on WTI Oil long-term throughout the whole year, that doesn't stop me from spotting potential medium-term tops and technical corrections that only serve for sustaining the uptrend on the long-term. An example was my following idea on October 19:
So far it appears that the price was indeed rejected on the Internal Higher Highs trend-line and is pulling-back on a potential technical correction towards at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). However, further confirmation of this potential reversal can come if the price closes a day below the 4H MA100 (red trend-line). What's the importance of the 4H MA100? Well for the whole year, this has been the short-term support during WTI uptrends and every time a session closed below it, then the 1D MA50 was hit a few days later.
Important notice: Such a confirmation was also given by another indicator, the RSI, last time for the formation of the peak on the Fib 2.0 (as seen I've plotted the long-term uptrend on the Fibonacci Channel). The RSI made a Triple Top on the exact same Resistance that gave the July 06 peak on Fib 1.5. Keep an eye on such confirmations, they come quite useful when determining reversals that are hard to see coming when the price is on a trend.
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (26th October 2021)WTI oil continues to rise along with other commodities. Recently, USOIL reached our short-term price target of 82.50 USD and then our medium-term price target of 85 USD. In light of these events we would like to change long-term price target of 90 USD to medium-term price target. In short-term we remain neutral as price of USOIl remains overvalued at the moment. Because of that we would not be surprised to see shortlived correction in WTI oil. Despite that we continue to be bullish on USOIL as rising demand and other fundamental factors support bullish case for it.
Technical analysis
RSI continues to move sideways in overbought territory. Its current value suggests that price is due to correct which would be very healthy for oil before next climb to 90 USD per barrel. We await reversal in RSI which will be accompanied by selling pressure. However, Stochastic and MACD remain bullish. Though, MACD loses momentum. ADX continues to grow which suggest that bullish trend is very strong and it is possibly nearing its peak.
Suport and resistance
Short-term support sits at 82.50 USD while short-term resistance sits at recent high of 85.39 USD. Support 1 lies at 80 USD and Support 2 sits at 76.95 USD. while Support 3 appears at 74.21 USD. Then major support sits at 61.58 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially rally during the trading session on Monday, reaching towards the crucial $85 level. The $85 level of course has a certain amount of psychological importance attached to it, so it is worth paying attention to the fact that we have fallen from that level. The market forming a bit of a shooting star suggests that we are ready to pull back just a bit, but I do think there is enough support underneath to keep this market going forward. All things been equal, the market is very bullish, and nothing has changed. I anticipate that there is probably a certain amount of resistance to the $85 level based not only upon psychology, but probably based upon the options market as well. Nonetheless, I do like the idea of pulling back and finding value that we can take advantage of going forward. The $82.50 level attracts a certain amount of attention, and most certainly the $80 level will as well. I think the $80 level is your short-term support level, and therefore I think that is the bottom of the overall range.
Keep in mind that there is a major amount of demand for crude oil, and we had also seen a lack of production during the pandemic, so therefore we have a bit of a “perfect storm” for higher pricing as the economies around the world continue to reopen, and of course demand surges for energy. We are not only seen this in the WTI market, but we are seeing it in the Brent market, natural gas markets, and quite frankly even the coal markets. In other words, anything energy related is going to continue to have quite a bit of momentum attached to it. With that in mind, I think this continues to be a “buy on the dips” scenario, and therefore I am not looking for selling opportunities. Longer-term, I do think that we break above the $85 level and go looking towards the $90 level. Looking at this chart, the market has been very bullish, and should continue to be so as we are simply grinding away in a 45° angle, which is a very healthy amount of momentum overall. It is not until we break down below the 50 day EMA that I would consider shorting this market.
Oil sales? The Oil analysis is very simple, we follow an upward trend with a projection up to 86/87. Tambein made small operations without confirmation in case he decides to change trend. Today 10/20/21 I keep a short with the SL at the maximum of laterality. If it surpasses this (No false breakout) it should remain bullish. We are attentive.
The entrance is Sclaping but the operation is Swing with strokes up to 75/60/50
WTI OIL is about to top soon. Reversal imminent.On my most recent WTI Oil idea I laid out the reason why I expected it to tun parabolic towards $82.50:
That target has now been reached and on the 1D time-frame, WTI is approaching a very strong Support cluster both on price and RSI terms.
As you see the price is close to the internal Higher Highs trend-line that connects the March 08 and July 06 Highs. Also it is approaching the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the Fibonacci Channel that is trading on since March. This extension is key because as you see the previous Higher Highs have been rising on a +0.5 Fib interval (1.0 and 1.5). The next in line is arithmetically 2.0.
At the same time, the 1D RSI is testing the 76.30 Resistance. The July 06 High came on a RSI Triple Top. We already have a Double Top. Watch this sequence closely as a potential Triple Top may be the signal for the correction. The 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 are there to offer Support.
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