Technical analysis update: USOIL (26th August 2021)West Texas Intermediate oil continues to march higher. Yesterday it traded as high as 68.51 USD. RSI continues to rise since 20th August 2021. Although, yesterday it started to flatten little bit. MACD's averages crossed and point to the bullish direction now. However, we need to note that MACD is still in the bearish zone. Stochastic is bullish. We will observe price of USOIL in the following days for any weakness. Current level of the most importance is 65 USD and 70 USD. In our opinion if USOIL manages to hold above 65 USD pricetag then price will continue its rise. We are currently bullish.
Recent thoughts from 24th August 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Wtioil
WTI OIL aiming at the 1D MA50Pattern: Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price (a) made a strong rebound on the Higher Lows trend-line, (b) near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and (c) broke above the Pivot Zone.
Target: The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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WTI OIL Double bottom at $65?WTI Oil has been trading within a Channel Up on the 1D time-frame since March. Despite the relative weakness we saw in July and so far in August, yesterday the price held on the 65.00 level , which if it holds will be a Double Bottom event.
This is not a formation that WTI Crude Oil is unfamiliar with, as on April 05 it made the very same Double Bottom while being on a corrective wave under the pressure of Lower Highs. Once those broke, the price went on to post Higher Highs within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fibonacci extensions. With the RSI on a Higher Lows much like in April, we expect to see new Highs once the Lower Highs trend-line breaks. Until then you may target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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WTI OIL Golden Cross 1W. One last top before major correction?Last week the Golden Cross (when the MA50 crosses over the MA200) on the 1W time-frame for WTI Oil went unnoticed. Last time we had a 1W Golden Cross was way back in April 2018. This raises an interesting fractal comparison.
As you see the price action when the Golden Cross happens is within a Channel Up both now then in 2018. Interestingly enough, when the Channel Up pattern started on both occasions, the RSI started printing Lower Highs, meaning it was on a Bearish Divergence. In 2018 that ultimately led to a blow-off top. Both sequences hit the $77.00 as their Highs. Does that fractal comparison indicate that WTI has one last dead-cat bounce to make before a major correction? What do you think?
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Technical analysis update: USOIL (5th August 2021)USOIL experiences selling pressure after its short rebound above 70 USD per barrel. Currently, price trades around Support 1. Next important level to watch is Support 2 at 65.11 USD. At the moment we expect this price level to hold. ADX is low which suggest neutral trend and thus sideways moving price action. MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all bearish on daily timeframe. Despite that we remain optimistic on future price of oil. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD.
Here is hourly timeframe:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: USOIL (27th July 2021)WTI oil continues to trade around 72 USD per barrel. Recently OPEC deal cleared out uncertainty about future supply boosts in the oil market. Despite initial selloff as reaction to the announcement of a deal we view this agreement among OPEC as bullish developement for medium and long term price of oil. Rising vaccination rates are leading to higher mobility in the U.S. and Europe. Higher mobility and less lockdowns subsequently hint to higher demand for oil in the near future. Earlier this year OPEC announced that it expects oil demand to rise by 6 million bpd this year. In addition to that IEA announced that it expects oil demand to rise by 5.4 million bpd this year and by another 3.1 million bpd next year. Though, pre-pandemic levels of demand (approximately at 100.6 million bpd) are expected to be reached by end of 2022. This points to the fact that oil market recovery is still in the progress and has plenty of room to continue. RSI and MACD are flattening out and becoming neutral. Stochastics is bullish. ADX contains low value suggesting weak or no trend. Our medium term price target is 77.50 USD per barrel and our long term price target for oil is 80 USD per barrel.
Developements from 20th July 2021:
Here we stated that price was very attractive for taking entry on long side of the market (price traded at 66.57 USD at time of publication). Then price rebounded back above 70 USD per barrel and continued further above 72 USD per barrel.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL needs to break this Lower Highs trend-linePattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks or if the MACD forms a Bullish Cross.
Target: 80.00 (below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (22nd July 2021)On 20th July 2021 USOIL halted its decline at 65.11 USD per barrel. Price traveled back to its short term simple moving average. Simultaneously, RSI reversed above 30 points, not piercing oversold line. This phenomenon tends to accompany strong trends of higher degree. In regards to oil it suggests that bullish trend of higher degree remains intact. MACD is flattening out. We think there are high odds of that correction ceased already. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD per barrel.
Developements from 20th July 2021:
Here we announced that OPEC deal would be bullish in medium and long term for price of oil. This is mainly due to clearing out uncertainties about future supply boosts to the market. We also hinted at possibility of WTI oil going towards 65 USD under selling pressure. We also stated that any price below 67 USD per barrel would be attractive entry point for taking long position.
Prior developements from 5th July 2021:
Here we stated that we remain bullish despite increasing odds of correction. We set medium price target to 77.50 USD and long term price target to 80 USD.
More prior developements from 1st June 2021:
Here we correctly predicted move above resistance and subsequently reached our short term price target of 70 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
CL1 Short to 0.618 fibIRAQ IS SEEKING HIGHER OPEC+ PRODUCTION BASELINE: DELEGATE
UAE ENERGY MINISTRY SAYS NO AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED YET WITH OPEC+ ON SUPPLY DEAL, DELIBERATIONS CONTINUE
With the OPEC agreement in a state of deliberation, and compliance a real question, the market is needing to price in some bearish risk potential. Especially given the recent extension that we've had. I believe that there is a real market deficit still, but this bearish risk is also very real.
I would be comfortable entering a short CL1 position until around $70, and reassessing before flipping long.
Of course, any significant news can change this view... all eyes on are OPEC
WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price (a) reached the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up, (b) entered the Ichimoku Cloud and (c) the RSI hit its 1 year Support line.
Target: 77.80 (the previous Higher High).
Previous WTI OIL signal:
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Technical analysis update: WTI oil (16th July 2021)WTI oil continues to experience selling pressure due to the stalemate within OPEC deal . However, anonymous sources hinted that some form of agreement has been struck between Saudi Arabia and UAE. If true, this would be bullish developement for price of oil. Before the selloff started we stated that selling would cease around 70 USD per barrel. Then price found its support at 70.79 USD and reversed back to the upside. Currently price fluctuates between 70 USD and 77 USD. MACD, RSI and Stochastics are all bearish. However, RSI shows first signs of flattening. Despite bearish technicals we remain bullish. We expect OPEC to reach agreement and view this as catalyst for move up. Our medium term price target remains 77.50 USD and our long term price target remains 80 USD per barrel.
Thoughts from 5th July 2021:
Here we warned investors about overbought condition in WTI oil. We also stated that odds of correction are increasingly growing.
More thoughts from 1st June 2021:
Here we predicted move above resistance and reached our price target of 70 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL, H4 - inverted HSH and harmonic patternInverted head and shoulders pattern suggests further uptrend. Target could be 88.6 of Fibo where is resistance level and harmonic pattern
CRUDE OIL - 73,54 Is Now ResistanceOur updated chart on WTI CRUDE OIL shows that the corerctyion is probably incomplete and the oirce under it's previous support/ now Resistance at 73.54
According to Reuters , Crude futures slipped on Monday as concerns over slowing global growth outweighed the prospect of tightening supply after talks among key producers to raise output in coming months stalled.
In the meantime, U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row as oil prices recently rose to their highest since Oct. 2018, prompting some drillers to return to the well pad. Clearly the intention of the US is to control prices, with CPI tomorrow going to be crucial data for what happens next with the US dollar.
On the other hand, last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, failed to reach an agreement to increase output from August while Saudi Arabia , the world's top crude oil exporter, will supply full contractual volumes of August-loading crude to at least five Asian countries but has turned down two of the buyers' requests for extra barrels....
In other words, the price is expected to keep being volatile but our charts suggest a short position unless it breaches over this crucial new resistance (73,54$).
the FXPROFESSOR
WTI OIL Getting closer to a buyPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy when contact is made with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) or the RSI enters the long-term buy zone.
Target: 79.50 (top of the Channel).
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OIL- OPEC Deal or No Deal?What a lovely day this is, what a fantastic thing Technical Analysis is.
Yes, we took profit perfectly today on what was a rather easy and predictable trade.
The price dropped minutes later from resistance to support and off from support bouncing back up at the moment.
What is important to understand now is the fundamentals.
Oil price surge triggers new inflation fears as Opec talks break down
The United Arab Emirates refused Saudi Arabia’s demands to increase production, leaving the meeting collapsing with no decision.
Some analysts are now predicting oil will climb to $100 a barrel. Economists said surging oil prices threaten to destabilise the world economy’s fight back from the Covid doldrums. As well as being key to the cost of powering factories, oil and its associated products form a key element in most consumer goods...
Check the idea below and remember who the greatest Bull of ALL TIMES is...(inflation)
Technical analysis update: USOIL (22nd June 2021)On 16th June 2021 we said that we might see small and shortlived correction towards 68 USD per barrel. However, USOIL stopped its decline at 69.80 USD on 17th June 2021. Then it reversed back up and made a new peak. Our medium term price target remains at 75 USD per barrel. MACD, Stochastics and DMI are all bullish. Although, RSI remains in overbought zone. In addition to that RSI again shows signs of reversing to the downside. We think analysts should be cautious about this observation. It is possible that USOIL will drop again below 70 USD before finally going to 75 USD.
Here are our thoughts from 16th June 2021:
Here we said that price drop could send us to Support 2 around 68 USD per barrel.
Here are prior thoughts from 4th June 2021:
Here we outlined case for 70 USD and 72.50 USD pricetag.
More prior thoughts from 24th May 2021:
Our first idea from 28th April 2021:
Here we outlined case for 65 USD pricetag with simple use of moving averages.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
WTI OIL Channel Up rejection shows strong pull-back nextPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the price got rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up. This will be confirmed once the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross.
Target: The 4H MA200 initially (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in extension where yuo can shift to a buy.
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