WTI Oil: Buy opportunity short term. Scenarios moving forward.Oil is trading sideways on the 1H chart (RSI = 47.613, MACD = -0.080, ADX = 28.589) as it is consolidating on the 19.20 Support. The MACD on the 4H chart just made a bullish cross and if the sequence of March 31 is repeated then we can have a rebound towards the 29.20 Resistance. That would however break the 4H MA200 (orange trend line) which hasn't been testes since January 10th and if broken would be a sign of stabilization and recovery for the market. So until then it is best to target the Lower High trend line of the Descending Triangle.
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Wtioil
WTI TA & FA, targets explained.. - Epic RR 19:57:19 (UTC) Considering adding at these levels to an existing long position. I don't think that the teens will be met. I think $20/bbl will hold. If it doesn't, then it is manipulation of price virtually, as here in Texas the Permian basin is solid and in fine shape compared to Canadian heavy barley getting 4$ bids. I see this is more of a fundamental investment rather than a swing trade at this point. Proper risk management is always applied, with a per risk trade of 2% max; negating a failed account in the long-run of a thousand trades.
Bullish arguments: include cuts from open assuring a $20 spot market. Cuts from OPEC+ and other producers mean that a unilateral bottom has been agreed on.
Suppliers control this market with the flip of a switch (lertaly). My target for May of this year is $41/bbl. The drop in demand has been forced. Fundamentally, anyone who's traded in a market with forced demand/supply knows how to handle this.
Bearish argument:
Slow down in demand.. obvious. The suppression is forced, and those that weren't leveraged and had good cash flow going into the year with adequate solvency are fine. It's the ones that were desperate for gain that want to see Oil to 0$. Of course, it already has been trading negative in parts of the world that don't have the infrastructure to maintain profit with these prices.
According to my source 4$/bbl in Canada is enough to break-even. While firing and downsizing. The infrastructure for heavy crude in Canada is expensive and can't just be towed off of the lot like it can here in Texas. Bears shouldn't be worried about WTI, they should be looking at Brent and heavy Canadian.
19:59:32 (UTC)
Tue Apr 14, 2020
WTI OutlookAfter an extremely volatile week, WTI found support in 22 zone and the price is consolidating now.
I believe this support will hold and a new wave of gains are coming for WTI oil.
A clear confirmation comes in with a break of 23 confluence resistance and the price could rise to at least 25 zone
USOIL Short Entry Update (+375 pips) Update on the short entry I took last week and posted on the channel. Currently floating +353 pips and I've closed 50% of my original position and am floating in profit with stoploss above breakeven for a risk-free trade. The geopolitics between SA, US, and Russia will be a dynamic that will move the price quickly this week so staying protected at all times will be key.
07:03:28 (UTC)
Mon Apr 13, 2020
Oil- ready to explode again?- updateIn the morning I wrote that OIL could reach 30 this week...
As we can see from the chart, the correction seems to be over and the price is consolidating in a very narrow range.
A break of 27.20 would accelerate gains and we can see it reach 30 sooner rather than later.
This scenario is valid as long as the price stays above 26
WTI Crude Oil: Channel Up on 4H aiming 30.00.Oil appears to be trading within a Channel Up formation on the 4H chart (RSI = 62.702, MACD = 1.460, ADX = 28.496, CCI = 59.3622) having so far made two Higher Highs and one Higher Low.
Since the MACD is about to make a Bear Cross, we are expecting the price to pull back now for its 2nd Higher Low and make contact with the 4H MA50 (blue trend line). Our Target Zone is 30.00 - 32.00 which is where we expect to price its 3rd Higher High and make contact with the 4H MA200 (orange line).
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WTI Crude Oil: Channel Up on 1H. Sell and Buy targets.Oil is trading within a Channel Up on the 1H chart (RSI = 66.305, MACD = 0.410, ADX = 40.465) and has just priced the Higher High on the 1H MA200 (orange line). Roughly a -9.00% pull back is expected for the next Higher Low (20.50) and then the bullish leg for the next Higher High at 22.90 (0.618 Fibonacci).
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