WTI trade analysis
Crude oil fluctuated upward last week, with the lowest at 86.6 and the highest at 90.7. The weekly closed at 90.3. From the weekly perspective, oil prices will continue to rise. On the daily line, the price fluctuated upward. In summary, the operation ideas this week are mainly callbacks. During the day, The four-hour line fluctuates upward. The hourly line fluctuates in a range. In summary, the main trend during the day is shock and upward. Let’s first look at the 88-91 range.
Wtioillong
Crude oil trend analysis
Crude oil showed a bottom-out trend on Wednesday. The low point stabilized and rose at the 81.0 level, and the highest point put pressure on $81.8. The daily trend chart of crude oil shows that the big positive line has risen again, breaking through the previous day's cross star high, and the bulls have been extended; from the short-term trend, the Bollinger Bands opened downward, and after the oil price touched the 77.5 level for the second time, Oil prices are operating in an upward trend. After the oil price above encountered resistance and retreated at the 84.7 line, the oil price faced adjustment, with the neckline at 81.7-82.0 US dollars. After further breakthrough, crude oil bulls will test the previous high. In the upward trend of crude oil shocks, 80.3 is the watershed between long and short trends. The upper part focuses on the resistance of 82.0-83.0 US dollars, and the lower part focuses on the support of 80.3-81.
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USOIL: Bottom fishing, with potential return to $80 per barrel
US crude oil has fallen for three consecutive days, pushing oil prices below $70 per barrel. As the market continues to revise down expectations for economic growth, and rising crude oil supplies offset the boost from China's reopening and the instability caused by the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse and Credit Suisse crisis, the financial market is facing huge instability, which has led to a sharp drop in oil prices.
As the development of fundamentals continues to weigh on risk sentiment, US crude oil has extended its decline, breaking through the previous support (now turned into resistance) at the important psychological level of $70. As of Wednesday's close, US crude oil has fallen more than 12% this week, pushing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) into oversold territory. At the same time, this round of decline has pushed oil prices towards the 200-week moving average (MA) of around $66, and oil prices have temporarily found support at this level.
Personally, I am bottom fishing and going long on USOIL at $66-68 per barrel. Due to the huge volatility of energy products, please control your position size. Only consider following my strategy if you have sufficient capital. Enter the market with a small position and aim for long-term profits, with a target of $80 per barrel on the upside.
I have conducted in-depth research on futures products such as cryptocurrencies, forex, stocks, gold, and crude oil. I also update my daily operation strategies. Thank you for your attention and support. If you have any questions, please feel free to leave a message, and I will provide the most secure advice. I hope I can help you.
USOIL:$78 next week is crucial
On Tuesday this week, the testimony of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Congress raised concerns about risk assets in the market. In this testimony, Powell stated that "if it is necessary, the Federal Reserve is prepared to speed up the pace of interest rate hikes, and terminal interest rates may be higher than expected." These words indicate that the Federal Reserve not only did not cool down the rising expectations for interest rate hikes over the past month, but also further pushed up the expectations for interest rate hikes.
Powell's speech caused shock in the market, as the market saw from Powell's speech a determination to lower the inflation rate at the cost of suppressing demand and employment. On that day, the US dollar index soared, risk appetite deteriorated, and US stocks fell sharply, accompanied by a sharp drop of 4% in oil prices from above $80 per barrel.
However, there was a reversal in oil prices on Friday. After testing the support at $74.5, the market quickly rebounded above $76 and successfully stabilized. Our long position in crude oil at $75 also reached the first take-profit level smoothly. However, there is still a certain distance from the recent high of $80, and the upper resistance level to watch is in the 76-78 area. This dense resistance area may limit the upward space. But if it breaks through $78, there will be an opportunity to challenge the $80 level again. Let's keep an eye on it, and I will update the trading strategy in a timely manner.
I have in-depth research on futures products such as cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, stocks, gold, and crude oil, and I also update daily trading strategies. Thank you for your attention and likes. If you have any questions, please leave a message, and I will provide the most secure advice to help you.
Specific analysis and ideas of crude oilThe biggest mistake in life is constantly worrying about making mistakes. The greatest sadness in life is not losing too much, but caring too much. This is also a major reason why a person is unhappy.
Last Friday, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal, there were internal discussions within one of the OPEC member countries, the United Arab Emirates, about the possibility of exiting OPEC. The report indicated that there are significant differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on various issues, including production capacity releases, competition for foreign investment, and the conflict in Yemen.
The market is concerned that if the United Arab Emirates were to exit OPEC, it would directly undermine the overall influence of OPEC. As a result, WTI crude oil was hit, dropping by 2.7% to $75.83. As a consequence, our previous bearish view on crude oil has yielded good results, and we hope everyone has gained profits. However, later, UAE officials denied the aforementioned report, stating that the UAE has no plans to exit OPEC. As a result, WTI crude oil quickly rebounded, recovering all losses and rising to $79.9, approaching the $80 mark.
Many people are now concerned about whether they should chase the rise of crude oil. Indeed, the decisions made by OPEC member countries will affect the trend of crude oil. Considering that the main disagreement driving the oil market currently is the demand outlook, and in the context of Russia's production cut in March, OPEC+ maintains a strong influence on the market. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices rebounded quickly after the UAE denied its exit from OPEC. However, investors should pay attention to the relationship between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
With the expectation of a recovery in demand, oil prices are expected to break out of their three-month consolidation range. According to some reports and data, a medium to long-term upward trend in oil prices may have been established, but the process is unlikely to be smooth. From a medium to long-term perspective, the upward trend in oil prices is expected to be established, but considering that US service sector inflation remains high and is difficult to quickly fall back in the short term, this will exacerbate the risk of economic recession in the US and thus impact demand prospects.
Investors this week should pay particular attention to the semi-annual monetary policy testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in both houses of Congress, as well as key events such as US non-farm payrolls for February, China's trade balance, CPI and PPI, M2 and social financing data, which are expected to have an impact on oil prices in the future.
Technical analysis:
The daily chart shows that WTI crude oil stabilized above $77.0 and further rebounded to touch the $80 level, indicating that the bulls have further upward momentum. It is expected to break through the consolidation range of the past three months ($73.0-$83.0). The author maintains a cautious bullish view on oil prices.
If the oil price breaks above $83.0, it may open up further upside potential, and even have the potential to test the $100 level in the medium term. However, if the oil price falls below $73.0, it is necessary to be vigilant about the possibility of further downside and a potential test of the key support level of $70.
Operation idea:
The main strategy is to buy on dips, and it's also possible to chase the price higher when it breaks through 82. Given the unclear news, it's important to control the position size.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (3rd September 2021)Our short term price target of 70 USD was reached yesterday. USOIL currently trades around 70.30 USD. We remain bullish on WTI oil. Our medium term price target is 77.50 USD and our long term price target is 80 USD. We would like to set new short term price target for USOIL to 72.50 USD.
Technical analysis
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD has bullish direction and we will observe it closely in the following days. We will look for crossover above 0 points (to the bullish zone). We expect this phenomenon to further bolster bullish case for the WTI oil. Previous short term resistance (at 69.60 USD) now acts as short term support. Medium term resistance is at 74.21 USD. Major resistance sits at 76.95 USD and major support sits at 61.58 USD.
Depiction above is another interesting setup for USOIL when a line is drawn from the peak of 76.95 USD and extended through the peak of 74.21 USD.
Latest news in the oil market
1.OPEC continues to keep its supply boost agreement in place signaling healthy oil market. News media report that OPEC+ is expected to raise its 2022 oil demand growth forecast to 4.2M bbl/day from its previous outlook of 3.28M bbl/day.
2. EIA reports that the U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 7.2M barrels to 425.4M barrels. This is despite domestic production continues to climb to a 15-month-high.
3. Yesterday Javad Owji (Iran’s new Oil Minister) met with top official from the China national Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to discuss cooperation and expansion of bilateral relations.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (1st June 2021)USOIL reached our short term price target of 67.50 USD per barrel. Currently, resistance sits at 67.94 USD. Technicals and fundamentals remain bullish. In adddition to that demand is expected to pick up over the summer. Because of these reasons we would like to update our short term price target to 70 USD per barrel.
Our previous thought from 24th May 2021:
Our previous thought from 29th April 2021:
Oil to trade over $100 Beginning of 2019 we saw a change in character with a sharp bull move to 66.20 level end in May 2019.
Oil as been in a accumulation until February 2020 where we saw a run on equal lows. Sweeping out stops positioned below the 50.20 level then trading higher.
This area dips down into the buy zone of the 61.8 fib retracement level. Institutions are defending the 50.5 level with a higher move above $100 handle, with a projected target of 113.20
WTIUSD - LongSince 1st Nov 2019 until now, there were 3 times price bouncing regarding the RSI(14) at level of 45.
There is a potential that the price possibly bounce this time. Besides, the price is above MA200, basically we are following the trend.
Trade with care, this is just my opinion sharing to you guys !
Cheers
WTIOIL - all the way upstairsTo find reversal points of a market is not easy but still possible, as we have found out using the example of WTI oil.
Analysis "WTI ÖL - Again 61,8% - Only short-term long entry?" from the 07th of June 2019
or
Analysis "WTI oil - Is the trend change for halving?" from April 12, 2019
or
Analysis "WTI - till$ 45, no major trend reversal." from 13th Nov. 2018
Every market has its peculiarities and with time you may be lucky enough to find a pattern. This works as long as some ghostly good, until the diva "StockMarket" flips, new patterns emerge and you can start all over again.
So I have no access to the Pentagon or the CIA and do not know in advance of which tankers in the Persian Gulf accidentally (after the US fleet was back) could be attacked :-).
However, the indicators are already overheating so that the profits must definitely be hedged. It should be considered that at first some profits should be taken. If oil come bake, we are looking for the new entry, but not necessarily come, as you can see in the Dax.
Analysis "Waiting for the bullrun": from May 30, 2019