WTI shortCrude oil short on the 1Hr timeframe.
The sky blue line is EMA25.
Wait for pullback as both price & EMA are headed into the 'red-zone', an area that looks ripe for a short, especially now as price is disobeying the dotted red diagonal support line.
I have two targets set up. First target is at 36.53, & the second target - for the more aggressive trader - is set at 34.93.
Pick your entry reason, and here's to Success 💪🏼😎
Wtishort
Oil ( WTI ) Bulls are slowing down.The bull run in WTI is definitely losing momentum.
It is evident from the fact that negative divergence is coming in play between the price structure and MACD, after the 5 legs impulsive movement.
Now the price is stuck between the key support at 34.86 and the critical resistance zone from 39.60 to 42.00 above.
I have marked the two possible scenarios:
1. The bulls giving up immediately from the current levels ( marked in yellow )
2. It may get one more push higher to the critical zone and then start the correction towards 33.60/30.30/28.40 & 24 based on the Fibo levels.
USOIL 10.59 - 18.67% GOOOD DAY TRADERS....
A LOOK AT THE CRUDE OIL COULD WE SEE THE CRUDE OIL CONTINUE ITS FALL
> CRUDE HAS BEEN EXTENDING LOSES SINCE THE OPEN ON MONDAY
> WEAKENING SHARPLY ON CONTINUED CONCERNS ABOUT THE OVERSUPPLY AND LACK OF STORAGE SPACE..
HAS 2 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ON THE OIL
TIGHT STOPS
RISK MANAGEMENT
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MASSIVE SHORT CRUDE OIL - as "smart money" playersU.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, has fallen to the $15 range as global economies remain on lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, crushing crude demand. Also global oil storage is reaching its limits. The situation is so dire, in fact, that the Department of Energy is even considering paying domestic oil producers to keep crude in the ground.
Even if the RRC follows through with their plan to interfere with the free markets, however, many experts suggest that as much as 20-30 million barrels per day in demand is being decimated by COVID-19 - a far cry from what global oil producers have cut so far.
I would recommend to take contrarian trade to the herd, who expect oil rebounce - SHORT SELL the hell out of it until the end of the April.
WTI TA & FA, targets explained.. - Epic RR 19:57:19 (UTC) Considering adding at these levels to an existing long position. I don't think that the teens will be met. I think $20/bbl will hold. If it doesn't, then it is manipulation of price virtually, as here in Texas the Permian basin is solid and in fine shape compared to Canadian heavy barley getting 4$ bids. I see this is more of a fundamental investment rather than a swing trade at this point. Proper risk management is always applied, with a per risk trade of 2% max; negating a failed account in the long-run of a thousand trades.
Bullish arguments: include cuts from open assuring a $20 spot market. Cuts from OPEC+ and other producers mean that a unilateral bottom has been agreed on.
Suppliers control this market with the flip of a switch (lertaly). My target for May of this year is $41/bbl. The drop in demand has been forced. Fundamentally, anyone who's traded in a market with forced demand/supply knows how to handle this.
Bearish argument:
Slow down in demand.. obvious. The suppression is forced, and those that weren't leveraged and had good cash flow going into the year with adequate solvency are fine. It's the ones that were desperate for gain that want to see Oil to 0$. Of course, it already has been trading negative in parts of the world that don't have the infrastructure to maintain profit with these prices.
According to my source 4$/bbl in Canada is enough to break-even. While firing and downsizing. The infrastructure for heavy crude in Canada is expensive and can't just be towed off of the lot like it can here in Texas. Bears shouldn't be worried about WTI, they should be looking at Brent and heavy Canadian.
19:59:32 (UTC)
Tue Apr 14, 2020
CRUDE OIL (WTI) | Bearlish scenario The graphs of CRUDE OIL (WTI) and BRENT OIL are very similar. However, I want to show a separate scenario for CRUDE OIL (WTI
Scenario for BRENT is BELOW
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THE WOUNDED BEASTOil markets yesterday have experienced what is considered a technical correction, creating much expectation about a further recovery. However, it would be hard to claim that it is objectively true. Still, the market needs to deal with the Covid-19 and the disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance.
The market remains under sellers pressure, where investor and traders are still weighting the immediate impact in the global economy with the spread in different latitudes of the virus, newly affected countries are considering stronger lockdowns, that definitely will create mayhem in the oil demand.
Today's weekly report will have two charts to explain and easily spot the bearish pressure in the weekly reign and the technical correction in the H4 domain. In W1 (weekly charts) Oil has recorded a 69.20% plunge from its January high reaching levels last seen in Feb 2002, next support level from 1998 at 16.24 could be achieved even with economic stimulus announcements and the end of the price war between the Saudis and Russians. It would take time for the oil market to cope with the intense never seen disruption in the demand before finally correcting.
Now in the H4 domain (4 hours charts), the price experienced a recovery of 38% from its lowest level, never seen before, giving some enthusiasm to the market. Some experts said it was due to Trump's proposal on increasing the national oil reserves supporting the American drillers hammered by the plunge in oil prices. However, personal opinion, this was a more technical correction after reaching a critical demand zone of $20 per barrel; bulls were sitting there expecting to fill up their orders, and clearly, it just happens, pushing the price action back to the daily moving averages. Finding resistance close to 50 Fibonacci level price action is still under a clear bearish bias, where the last line of defense for the bears could be the next Fibonacci level at around 61.8. Now, 50 EMA and 200 MA continue in bright free fall. MACD (not displayed in the chart sorry) showed some bullish divergence that confirmed this encountered correction. The market will continue to check on the Bulls' endurance for this short-term correction.
As a last note, this downturn in prices for the oil producer dependent countries could vanish governments revenues by up to 85%, for instance, Venezuela, Ecuador, Iraq, Nigeria, Angola are at particular risk, opening the door for the international financial institution to step in and take extraordinary measures. Iraq's oil minister had pledged the call for an emergency meeting with the OPEC this week when price tested the $26 handle, with no confirmation on that front yet, let's get into the weekend and see what next week will bring to the market.
Fresh Mind Oil analysis and My Trading Plan The latest analysis was made a little unclear :-) There are three scenarios for the daily and four hour periods. But each of them implies a reduction in oil prices in the near future. I am interested in making money next month, and oil provides such an opportunity.
This is the start of a very "short" dayThe roll over has begun. The stochs are bottomed out for the most part and money flow is low. The big drop in the current candle, I believe is just the beginning. Oil has been up all week and has pierced the upper limit on the channel, but hasn't busted out. I believe we are going to see a drop all the way back into the $53s. If it goes past that, I expect it will bottom out around $51. Trade carefully and always use SL. Have a great weekend.