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MARKET SENTIMENT DRIVEN BY CALLSThe oil market started this trading week recording a new low at 19.29 US$, a level last seen 18 years ago, with a shadowed and gloomy projection of the global oil demand falling by more than 20 Mb/d, the yesterday’s rebound in the oil price could be only temporary relief.
Technical reading prevails clear bearish bias, oil market tilted towards the upside yesterday to later closing with a firm rejection and seller pressure right at the support zone in red. Only this week, the price was able to recover some lost ground, almost 42%, fighting not only with the support level but additional finding rejection from the 18 EMA.
Starting the week, the headlines that capture the spotlight in the energy market were regarding Trump’s talks with Putin. President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, and they agreed to have their top energy officials to discuss the sliding oil demand. Trump is clearly showing concern about the price war and direct impact that is already causing in the US oil rigs.
Later on, Wednesday report with the surge in the US stockpile inventories by 13.8 million vs. 3.5 million forecasted did not cause the expected selloff as expected; instead, price closed in green supporting the theory of a broken global oil market. Storage facilities are filling up, according to Bloomberg. At the current rates, storage could overflow in just a few months. The physical oil market has seized up.
The risk sentiment in the oil market is currently that shallow that even a tweet from President Trump about his conversation with Saudis and Russians yesterday moved the market in one day by 28% up to later drop and close with a 17%, closing in green but signaling a strong seller pressure, again technical correction as the bearish bias remain to hover the energy sector. With no confirmation yet on agreements after the talks, the market will close this week with the skepticism in place.
STALLED WEEK FOR THE OIL MARKETAfter the technical correction experienced in the market last Friday, the wrecked oil market had what is considered a flat trading week, forming a consolidation channel within 25- & 21-dollar range, market sentiment remains skeptical with investors in “sit-and-wait” mode weighting the outcomes of events in different fronts before placing their bets.
On one side, the market is waiting for April to validate the ramp-up in production announced by the Saudis that will overflow the market with the black commodity, budgetary cuts in major oil producers’ companies were also announced. And last but not least, the confirmation this week of a possible alliance between the US and Saudis to curb the damaged oil market.
The technical chart does not say much. The market is still under intense bearish pressure, trading within a consolidation channel. Here MACD also confirms a flat trading week. Moving averages reducing their falling angle.
Although not comment on the alliance front, the news was enough to booth the sentiment in the market. Big oil players are already announcing a significant cut in spending, as the oil price remains in the $20 handle. It is a fact that with current oil prices, US oilfields activity will collapse.
Additionally, as the virus continues to destroy demand, Australian refiners viva energy (ax:vea) and Caltex Australia ltd (ax:ctx) said they expect jet fuel demand to shrink by 80% to 90% due to air travel grinding close to a halt and plan to take in less crude.
With price showing enough room to fall further, the price could reach levels previously seen in 1986 or 1998 of around $10 per barrel.
Leaving aside the presumption of the ability to predict the market, technically and fundamentally speaking, the carts are on the table. Let’s stay in the “wait-and-watch” mode until further notice. Happy weekend ahead. See you next Friday.
OIL going to Retest 22.05Oil is been rejected from resistance line at $28, now oil will retest the $22,
is a double bottom, so let's see how interact with the support line.
It could be a potential breakout to the downside.
MACD and SRSI pointing down.
Also oil price could be affected by the news, so please be careful and also use SL, especially when you use leverage.
also your risk/reward is higher near the support/resistance lines (key levels)
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OIL - the commodity they are killing for...If the oil would drop through the blue line, I start to believe that 10 dollars per barrel is coming next.Fractals in oil. What would happen in the world to send oil to 10 dollars? ..the commodity controlled by three men only... Black gold. :) Anyway, not looking good for oil... Do not take it too seriously, but consider it. Have fun, trade with smile folks.
Buy Oil Below 50, Target: 55Waiting for long stops around 49-49.5 to get hit, with initial TP at 38.2 fib near 55 psychological level, and 2nd TP at 61.8 fib. Most likely it will go go ranging here in 50 psychological level for some quite time before rallying soon after being oversold especially with the risk of corona virus spreading being more controlled now compared to 2 months ago.
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Need to be cautious still though because markets are generally still risk-off now which is fundamentally bearish for oil and a continued slide down to 42 is highly probable.
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