OIL IS LIKELY GOING TO SELLWhen examining this asset, there is evidence of an M-pattern formation occurring across weekly, 4-hour, and 1-hour time frames.
Although the right arm of the M-pattern has not yet begun on the weekly timeframe, it is about to commence on the 4-hour timeframe. There is also a clear formation of the right arm of the M-pattern taking place on the 1-hour timeframe.
Aggressive traders may opt to enter using the 1-hour timeframe, while conservative traders may prefer to use the 4-hour timeframe. Conservative and long-term holders may choose to ride with the weekly timeframe.
Ultimately, the choice of timeframe depends on individual trading style.
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Wtoil
WTI OIL Long term Channel Down holdingWTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since late July, completing 6 months of a structured downtrend.
Every technical decline has been following a similar pattern, dropping -22% and -25% respectively.
Right now the price is on the last counter trend rise before the final decline starts.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the spot as every MA100 1D rejection has been bearish.
Targets:
1. 65.00 (marginally above a measured -22% decline).
Tips:
1. The price is a strong sell every time the RSI 1D approaches the 60.00 level.
Successful trade on this pattern:
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COMMODITIES running wild everywhere. Decade-long cycles in play.The talk of the street, since the war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, has been how aggressively commodities have been rising. Of course this rise hasn't started this month or the previous but is the outcome of inflation running high on historic levels since the March 2020 COVID crash, when global central banks (more importantly the Fed and the ECB) engaged in enormous economic rescue packages through liquidity by money printing at a historic pace.
I have excluded Gold (XAUUSD), which is the obvious counter to inflation and safe haven during times of geopolitical unrest and instead have included WTI Oil, Corn, Lumber and Wheat as representative commodities. I will not go into detail for each one separately, as the charts are pretty much self-explanatory. The goal here is to illustrate their long-term Cycles and how similar today's rise is to those of the previous cycle.
As you see, what is happening today is no different to what happened in the previous Cycle. All commodities seem to be approaching their respective symmetrical tops when compared to their previous Cycle. That is more evident on WTI Oil, Corn and Lumber. When their previous Cycles peaked, the price always went back to the 1M (monthly) MA200 (orange trend-line).
If you are a long-term investor, such charts help at giving a very clear perspective as to what action should be taken in portfolio making.
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Is it possible for OIL prices to fall below $ 40?After falling from $ 107 to $ 26, the price stopped at $ 76 in a bullish wave. After falling price below $ 12, it was able to cross the $ 76 area in the next uptrend. We are currently waiting for the price correction. The ranges $ 46-43 or $ 36-33 could push the price towards the $ 103-108 .
OIL Intraday. Aiming 1:10 RRRisk 1% and aiming for 10% on this trade. No indicators used. Pure price action. Like to keep my chart clean. Simply trading structure, nothing else!!
All trades closed on the same day. Entries are taken on 1 min chart. Stop loss is moved to cost after structure break. Don't chase the trades, wait for the next opportunity.
Also, please view price action on 1 min chart if you're following my entries. It will make sense. Trading view doesn't allow to post entries on charts smaller than 15 minutes.
Mostly trade 12-5pm UK time NY session. Sometimes London Session. Don't like the idea of watching charts the whole day.
Crude Oil: Easy Swing TradeThe reversal of crude oil happened after breaking the weekly channel couple of weeks ago as anticipated in my previous post (See link), a nice short trade was initiated. Was really one good trade. Oil was ever good to us, providing another setup to go short again.
Wait for a rejection around the upper line of the symmetrical triangle.
trade safe & Good luck!
WTI OIL Trading PlanPattern: Bullish formation based on Fibonacci retracements and extensions. Every Higher Low is on a +0.118 Fibonacci retracement interval. Every Higher High on a -0.118 Fibonacci extension interval.
Signal: Buy near the 0.618 Fib retracement which is also the 4H MA50.
Target: 48.00 (just below the -0.382 Fibonacci extension).
Previous WTI OIL trade:
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