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USD/CHF UpdateAt this point we simply measure and count out to have a double combo pattern for a "B" wave. I said I would prefer to see Uchf retest zone. It did and I circled where the "Real" sell setup was. The thing about trading these combo "B" wave patterns is you have to understand the possibilities and time your entries properly. Can it correct and go up more for a triple combo?.... Yes... And if it did that I would then probably be looking for it to do a running flat, not breaking the low (which I think Usd/Jpy is doing). But we have a completed pattern that barely broke the high and is coming down. I would think we should be looking for sell setups (smaller corrections) for continuation down. If you got in near top, I would let it run.
Short
by thillygoosth
USD/CHF UpdateI hope you caught that buy... Now the question is, did we complete a combo pattern "B" wave? If so, one heck of a trade in a "C" wave. So Far, this correction has played out beautifully as one to trade, ever since the breakout of the choppy channel labeled "A". Should have caught the sell from breaking the high, sorry, been busy with other stuff. Just be careful, wave wise it does still have the potential to produce a running flat or triangle, but I will be looking for sell setups for my "C" scenario until something changes. I would prefer to see it test that zone again though. That last wave seems a little suspicious to me to spike up again.
by thillygoosth
XAU/USD Daily- Refer to weekly firstRefer to my weekly analysis first. If I look at this last move as a 3 wave (which is what I would expect with the larger swing pattern).. It came off equal length at the 50% fib retrace. That box would be where I would be looking. They may not drop it down more considering people watching the trend line. It will come down to whether or not the dollar is done and is pulling back. We don't have confirmation on this stuff yet but I can see happening, or about to happen.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by thillygoosth
1
XAU/USD weekly Long TermGold counts out pattern and fib wise for one more up, every way I look at it which would make sense, breaking the high it never broke. When you look at the chart with nothing on it, it looks like a sell, but not when you consider the modern swings of the market. It is at the 50% retrace, approaching the 200 MA on weekly. It just reacted to the 800 MA on the daily. Don't just jump in a buy without a strategy and accounting for time frame. There was a 1 hr diagonal and but entry off the 50% fib and 800 on daily. I believe that to be the first entry on attempting for the swing, but I would think we would get more of a reversal pattern. This may take some time. But AudUsd did come of the exact level I indicated to the pip. If that was to keep going, Gold may too. At this point I would be looking for setups and definitely watching that 200MA on weekly, and the .618 level.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by thillygoosth
2
NZD/USDWatch NU at the .618 level. You have equal length lining up there also, pitchforks. Very strong level. Wave pattern on the larger scale tells me one more up to break the high. AU has been holding at the .618. Would be worth taking a look at Aud/Nzd when NU hits the .618 level. May get a sell on it when that happens. I think NU is correcting to complete a larger triple combo pattern with a large move down in the future completing a "Z" wave. But where it is at in this smaller corrective pattern has me expecting this move to be corrective to make one more push up.... Watch that level. Could take some time to develop.
by thillygoosth
4
Eur/AudEA looks to have produced a sell setup. I would think we might get a trend line break. It is coming off the 50% retrace. You see the .618. I would think we would get a larger structured correction if it is gonna go down more. We have what looks to be a "W", so I would be looking for an X. If it hits that first zone, we may get a quick 5 wave up to the .618 when you consider it in relation to the top trend line. If that did happen I would then be looking for a 3 wave correction from there. If it were to break out and hit that lower zone, you may want to just let some ride to break the low, but also consider taking a buy setup if you get one, with the possibility of a larger correction up, but also a running flat. It will all just come down to how the pattern and price action develop to and at these levels.
by thillygoosth
USD/CAD LOLI know you can't see the chart, neither can I. But what I can tell you is that the 134.00 price level (basically the .786 from B-C high to low, is a key fibonacci level for many reasons, pitchforks, multiple trend fibs. I've looked at this pattern every way I can and it labels corrective every time. We may even get a nice sell from here, but that's a totally different discussion pattern wise. But basically, if Ucad hits 134.00, it should react down and there should be a long term sell to downside, at least to correct 50-62% of this upward pattern with the possibility of breaking the low. But I am talking about some long term stuff here. It looks like it is consolidating above trend line for a sell, but I am not completely convinced just yet.
by thillygoosth
Cad/Jpy Weekly wave analysisCJ seems to be counting and measuring out to make a double combo pattern long term. Right now it is breaking the .618 retrace and looks like it is making a small buy setup on 30 min.. possibly. Yes it's been going down and there is no way for me to properly explain this concept or how or when to go about trading it. But right now we have a 5 wave up and are on a 3 wave down on the smaller scale. The fact that the last wave retraced 61% instead of 38% on this weekly chart makes me look at this as not a 5 wave impulse down. And when I consider the fibs and the swing pattern it makes sense. It could take some time to unfold and comes down to entry and strategy. There will be buys and sells, but I am more personally interested in the buy setups. Right now, larger time frame says it is in a sell currently, however, right now you might be getting a buy like I said, but I want to see a buy setup on 4 hr. This "B" wave it is doing right now could become more complex of a correction. It could be in a downtrend when I look at the 200 and 800 MA on daily, but I will still be looking for at least one more up for "C" even if we don't get that 7 swing I drew out, but it sure measures and counts out for it.
by thillygoosth
NZD/USD updateOk..... SO, look at the correction NU just made on the 1hr and compare that with the daily/weekly and train your eyes to see that. As of now, NU is coming off the 1.236 fib extension in a W-X-Y pattern, which makes sense (which could just be a bullish trend even though corrective looking). However, what doesn't make sense is the the length of the the last wave and the fact that I am use to seeing those do one more to break the high, or an "ending diagonal" if retracement/reversal is ready. I drew up a triple combo scenario which would line up with a higher period moving average cross, at which point we may even have a running flat signifying even more possible bullishness. My point is, it made a w-x-y correction, it was corrective. I don't see a sell setup yet. If it pulls down more it will probably do as my red trend lines say, thus producing a buy setup. Maybe is doesn't reach the 1.618 extension, however, it has to correct the opposite direction before I consider to take the sell down. I want to at least see it break the high it just made, or pull down and then make a bearish flag, then I will consider the sell. Can it sell down from here? Anything is possible, but I am telling you what I see as most likely... Double combo now...possibility of triple combo (even better for entry), until something changes.
Long
by thillygoosth
1
USD/MEXSo, Umex appears to be in a corrective structure considering its pattern. I am just pointing out that as I type this, it is rejecting equal length at the .618 fib level as it has broken out of pitchfork. It does have the possibility of extending to that 1.236 level considering this wave's trend line (which is questionable in my opinion) and still being within the potential pattern. The idea here is if it makes a complex "B" wave as these pairs usually do, then that would be a very large trade to the downside. But keep in mind the very large zone I am pointing out up to that 1.236. However, very strong level right now. USD news in about an hour. Although, this is some high time frame stuff, so know that.
Short
by thillygoosth
BTC ... what becometh of you? Here we are, what should I do?Hello everyone! So here, we are ... BTC, tried to get to 8100 on an IHS (see chart). Stalled just over 7.7k territory. Now what? A few days ago, I posted an idea about a back test of the 7k bottom ... I also didn't like the fact that we didn't quite hit the rising 6 month trend line (now almost 9 months long!), which was sitting at 6.9k. So, I do think we are in the wave that will take us down to that trend line ... by the time we get there, it will be at around 6970 to 7000. Here's why: - I've gone back and checked all the subwaves of the main drops (20k to 6k, up to 11.7k, down to 6.5k, up to 10k, and now down to ??). - the sub waves are NOT likely ABC corrections ... they seem to be WXY corrections. - an ABC correction is a 5-3-5 system (so check if we have that from 20k to 6k)?? - a WXY correction is a (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system ... which fits better for all the main drops and rises. - for this correction I see a WXY pattern forming from 10k ... and we've done (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3 ...), so I think this is the final (5) .... which I've plotted in the gold line. - note that I like showing alternatives on my chart ... there's one interpretation that shows we did complete the full 5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system down to 7k ... could be, but I say lower probability, particularly because we didn't touch the bottom of the triangle ... and we still have 2 days left until the close of the cycle on the 5th of each month ... (every reversal ended on 5th of each month, and the market flipped on the 6th from bull to bear, or vice-versa). Also, a back test of 7k bottom is confirmation ... much needed confirmation. So, we can get that now, with the trend line being so close to 7k. But, if I'm wrong about my primary interpretation, then this is WAVE E, another WXY up to the top of the triangle ... and the next move needs to be up to minimum 8100, and real confirmation is really above 8300 .. it really does need to go there and not much lower than it is now. So, we should know by tomorrow. In the meantime, I suggest it's going to drop further, and the targets are 7270, 7040, 6980, 6425, 6000, 5400, 4400 ... as we go down that chain of targets, the probability lowers ... but I do have the highest probability as somewhere between 6900 to 7100. Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome. Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
10