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Wxyxz

Sand P in Double Combo Wave Correction; Z wave incoming?!Chart says all. Had one of these in 2019. Bulled like crazy afterwards. These waves are brutal trade killers, terrific whipsaw. If this plays out same way as last year, the wriggly worm will slip off the hook at 'Z' and the fish will jump after it...! Short until pivot near 3300 - 3360, then all in long, target 3750 - 3830, based on measured move +560 pips. Alternate possibility: this Triple Top is end of run and breaks way back down... Just ideas, not advice, trade at your own risk, GLTA!
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
5
SPX: WXYXZ RECOVERY PATH? Chart says all. This recovery in bear market will be longer and more volatile by far than the 2018 minicrash V-recovery. Historically, most bears follow a WXYXZ path, with second X weaker than first, a lower high. The Z leg might be at or slightly above the 23 March low; a 5th wave extension could push it down to 1.272 x wave 1, to carry index around 1770. The current 'Y' wave should give a higher low in the target box zone, before pushing back up to join channel top. IMO buying on double bottom later in 2020 will be an historic opportunity... This is just an idea, does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk, GLTA!
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
5
SPX near ending diagonal EW structure; More Pain AheadEW labels as charted suggest an ABC is unfolding in a Zig-Zag corrective structure: The 5-3-5 pattern is emerging, with the C wave 5-impulse remaining to fill; Bear market rally 'B' wave has taken form of a WXYXZ 3-3-3 minute wave pattern, 3 counter waves each in turn consisting of 3 minute waves (minute labels omitted for clarity); the double topping ending diagonal near the 0.62 Fibo is ominous; 100% extension of A wave by 'C' is shown; the 0.62 extension would bottom at ~2140; the 1.24 extension would reach 1400 index price; NB, below: IF 'C' wave reaches 1.62 extension of A, then it likely represents the Third wave of an impulsive 5-wave correction, which would imply a crash to extreme low prices: This is just an idea for your amusement and education; trade at your own risk; reference: Education; from elliottwave-forecast.com 5.1 Zigzag Elliott Wave Theory Zig zag Guidelines • Zigzag is a corrective 3 waves structure labelled as ABC • Subdivision of wave A and C is 5 waves, either impulse or diagonal • Wave B can be any corrective structure • Zigzag is a 5-3-5 structure Fibonacci Ratio Relationship • Wave B = 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A • Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave A • If wave C = 161.8% of wave A, wave C can be a wave 3 of a 5 waves impulse. Thus, one way to label between ABC and impulse is whether the third swing has extension or not
SP:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
67
Seems like the formula for a bearish bartWhen it heads up to the top of a channel like that in a big swoop then stalls out the most logical thing in a bear market is to expect a bart. People are getting all frothy about it shooting to the moon from here but I am not buying it. I am not actively shorting it yet but I am lightening up a little on the long term long positions I accumulated at lower prices because I expect the market is going to give plenty of chances to buy back in much lower. I still think 5800 is a very reasonable scale in zone and given the uncertainties in the world as a whole it's also possible for it to test into the 4k area again. I don't really think it's going below the floor which stock-to-flow put in at 3800 but it's also not totally impossible. My overall plan is still the same, to spend the entire summer building a long term position for when the bull market finally returns, and the key to that is to not chase fakeout-style price action like this. Oil is still heading south which is a strong indicator to me that the economy is not out of the woods. That means the crypto market still has lots of time to shake people out and I would rather be buying the bottoms of the shakeouts than be the one getting shaken out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by mljones
3
Sand P Double Bottom Soon? Bounce; A = CTie-in to my EW combo wave idea for DJI. Indexes could move a bit higher off this shallow pullback on 4/13, to the 0.618 Fibo at 2937, as we saw at the 0.382 level; or rollover straight from here. A = 360 pips = C... ominous IMO. The secondary selloff could terminate at or near first selloff bottom ~2190; or dig a little deeper, or form a higher low, but it is coming IMO. The WXYXZ recovery pattern after a shock has been present in most crashes. Significantly, another bounce following this pattern may provoke further Bear Behavior, as the true lows in '29/30 and '08/09 came after the pattern completed. V-shaped recovery is not likely IMHO. Trade at your own risk; this isn't investment advice.
SP:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
DJI Bear Market Path to Lower Low: WXYXZ EW Pattern RepeatsChart says most all. Expect lower low around 17K in late May or early June. In 2008 and again in the two zig-zags of 2018, we saw the Elliott complex wave WXYXZ recur. W is pretty clearly carved out, lol. X1 is nearly completed, or at completion. Short entry for Y. Y has been a higher low, followed by a lower high at X2, giving the 'hunchbacked M' pattern which is a Bearish butterflly or bat and precedes the final impulse to the bottom. A strong rally typically ensures; however, this may STILL NOT BE THE BOTTOM! In 2008 after the WXYXZ pattern completed, a final bottom carved out months later. Whether this happens again depends on the length and severity of Coronaviral economic impact.
TVC:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
8
Long Story Short [ ;) ]By my analysis, the prices could stop the motion now or at 111 maximum, we are located at 2nd wave which his character is bearish and could make you give up your position, patients is the name of the game, don't be panic guys, we are just experiencing a tough time just before the euphoria... here at this analysis I presenting the Rationale behind my words. IF YOU WANT SOME MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS IDEA, PLEASE GO TO MY ANALYSIS "The Similarities ETH vs BTC"
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by josque
12
Bullish View If Z Leg Already FoundUsing measured moves to find the WXYXZ waves it looks like the final z wave might have already been found, or at least if it hasn't then the low would be around 5750. This is in contrast to the previous chart I posted which summarized philakone's chart. In it he found the projection for the bottom of the z wave using internal elliot wave counts and found the the z leg is likely to go below $5k. If the measured move count is correct and we're already into a bullish reversal then the main challenge going upward is breaking out of this very solid downward channel. It's right on the edge of the andrew's pitchfork line and I would strongly expect near term bearishness. I don't think it's going to shoot straight up from here, this is probably a good area to take profits on any profitable longs and ratchet up protective stops on any long losing positions. For my long term trades I do think there will be better opportunities to get better prices, it is probably going to chop a bit before forming a distinctive 1 wave base that will be the starting point for a move back to the teens. I think 9100 is about as far as this bull move will go and then I will really be looking for shorts intraday. Right now I'm mainly sitting on the sidelines and only taking trades from the far edges of the daily ATR lines and trading back to the center. It's probably going to start to see range compression so intraday mean reversion is probably the best approach for day trades.
by mljones
Bear case if z leg of wxyxz still to be foundThis is based on philakone's chart from the 24th. It's complicated but the basic idea is the region from 8400 to 9250 is likely to be toppy and there is still another major bear leg in the works that could take btc to below $5k before the bull market is official This is because according to philakone we're in a large wxyxz pattern and are still looking for the final z leg down. So around here I am scalping intraday with a bullish bias until it looks like there's a reversal back down. For longer term trades I have been looking to buy up eth and have posted my accumulation zones on other charts. If BTC does go below $5k I will treat that as my last chance to load up before the bull run. I think the fact that philakone hasn't posten anything in a while means the RRR isn't all that great in either direction just yet. The long term pattern is upward but there is a strong chance for a multi-month move lower before the big upward move begins. I would not at all be surprised if 2020 were incredibly choppy for BTC and plunges to a major low and then shoots to a major high by december. So I am being patient with this and taking it one day at a time and looking to gradually add on weakness and not chase strength.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by mljones
Bitcoin Launch Pad moving into place at ~$5400?Looks like Bitcoin is preparing to make its final drop to $5400 which is the 78.6% retracement from $3k to $14000 setting up a nice launch pad to send us to new all time highs! We could break through the channel with force or maybe see slight resistance dragging us along $5500ish but as soon as we break the channel after bouncing from $5400 we will see the new impulse send us to the moon! This image actually turned out right. Not sure why main image shifted
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by KondrackiKarl