BTC the "Wyckoff Re-Accumulation" Hello Traders,
Today we are looking at a the current consolidation or trading range of BTC over the past 4 months. When an asset is consolidating or trading range it could be either in an accumulation or a distribution phase per Richard Wyckoff. Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was an American stock market investor, and the founder and onetime editor of the Magazine of Wall Street (founding it in 1907). He was also editor of Stock Market Technique.
During his early years Wyckoff studied many of the most well known early stock traders and later created his own techniques to navigate the markets now known as the Wyckoff Method.
The Wyckoff Method is a technical analysis approach developed by Richard Wyckoff that emphasizes the relationship between price and volume to understand the psychology of the market. Wyckoff believed that by studying price action and volume patterns, traders could identify the intentions of large institutions, often called "smart money," and anticipate future market movements. This method focuses on specific phases within a trend, with accumulation being a key stage where large institutions discreetly buy shares before a potential price increase. This buying activity often leads to periods of consolidation, which Wyckoff saw as crucial phases in the accumulation process. Let's delve deeper into these consolidation phases, also known as trading ranges, and how Wyckoff interpreted them.
Within the Wyckoff Method, trading ranges, also known as consolidations, represent periods where the price action gets stuck in a defined zone. This sideways movement reflects a temporary tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. While bulls (buyers) try to push the price higher, bears (sellers) attempt to drive it down. Neither side can gain a decisive advantage, resulting in the price bouncing between established support and resistance levels. Wyckoff viewed these consolidations as a crucial phase during accumulation, where large institutions strategically absorb selling pressure from weaker hands. By analyzing volume patterns within the trading range, Wyckoff aimed to identify signs of underlying strength or weakness, ultimately gauging the probability of a future breakout in the direction of the dominant force.
Richard Wyckoff developed schematics to illustrate the various stages of accumulation and distribution within his trading method. These schematics weren't rigid formulas, but rather a framework to understand the underlying behavior of large institutions during these phases.
One of the schematics portrayed in Wyckoff's accumulation schematic is the re-accumulation. The Re-accumulation similar to a normal accumulation is derived of multiple moving parts focusing on price action and volume. Below are the moving parts of a Wyckoff accumulation and the acronyms defined to better help you understand the schematic listed below. Please take a moment to understand these different stages of events in the schematic as we will be applying them to the current trading range which we are analyzing on the current BTC chart.
PSY ( Preliminary Supply ): This marks the initial stage where large institutions begin discreetly selling shares after a significant upward movement. Volume might not be exceptionally high, but there's a subtle increase in selling pressure.
BC ( Buying Climax ): This is a period of frenzied buying activity, often driven by retail investors. Volume surges, and the price might reach a temporary high. However, this buying is often filled by large institutions happy to unload their remaining shares.
ST ( Secondary Test ): After the buying climax, the price might revisit the area of the BC to gauge remaining buying interest. This is a test of demand and can be a good entry point if volume is low, suggesting the selling pressure is fading.
AR ( Automatic Reaction ): This refers to a short-lived price movement in the opposite direction of the underlying trend. It's an automatic response to the previous price movement and doesn't necessarily reflect a shift in the overall trend.
Spring : a price movement that tests remaining supply of a security after a period of consolidation. It's a short-lived, sharp downward movement that often appears near support levels. The Spring is now always a part of the Wyckoff re-accumulation schematic.
LPS ( Last Point of Supply ): This is the final significant selling pressure before a potential breakout. The price might reach a new high (higher high) on relatively low volume, indicating a lack of sellers and a potential increase in buying power.
SOS ( Signs of Strength ): These are bullish price movements on increasing volume, often accompanied by higher highs and higher lows. They signal that demand is overcoming supply, and the price is likely to move upwards.
Phase A
(2/25-3/15)
Preliminary Supply
As you can see in the first move of Phase A of the chart shown between 2/24 and 3/04 we had a large buy up of proven to be institutional buyers which can be shown by the buying pressure in the graph below the new ETF inflows and outflows. This would represent the Primary Supply or (PSY). Sometimes followed by the shake out as you can see happened right after the build up of the PSY.
This graph denotes the new Spot Bitcoin ETF's and companies that run them such as Blackrocks BTC ETF ( NASDAQ:IBIT ) headed up by the very well known name in finance Larry Fink with the company's Trillions under management in a whole. Greyscales BTC Trust turned ETF ( AMEX:GBTC ) Headed by the recently appointed Peter Mintzberg> Fidelity ( AMEX:FBTC ) leading the company as CEO of the larger asset fund manager Abigail Johnson. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ( AMEX:ARKB ) headed up by Cathie Wood. Bitwise ( AMEX:BITB ) ran by CEO Hunter Horsley and for all intent purposes we will leave the other 5 ETF's. These are listed in order of largest BTC holdings to smallest just for some context.
Buying Climax
The second stage in Phase A is the Buying Climax which is predominantly dominated by an increase of volume of retail buyers which you can see in the chart below showing the retail to institutional investor ratios between the time period we are currently looking at on the chart. This is also matched with institutional traders selling into the buying of the asset being bought up by retail. For this instance we can reference the data shown above in the Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows. AMEX:GBTC seemed to be the only large institution that was selling into this buy volume by us little folks.
Phase B:
(3/15-4/24)
Secondary Test
As defined above, this is when price action comes down into a demand zone and tests as selling pressure starts to diminish. This becomes a good point of entry for buyers. This is a crucial stage that tests the demand base established during the beginning of the re-accumulation phase. It involves the price action revisiting the area of the buying climax. This offers valuable insight into the strength of the accumulation process.
Automatic Reaction
After the secondary test you can see on the chart the price action had a swift return to the upper resistance zone creating the AR we are discussing now. The automatic response is a bounce off the lower support area of the consolidation range of the schematic. From the chart we can see a large bullish candle jumping from the bottom of the range happening on 3/20 followed by continued price action up to the top of the range, suggesting we have confirmed the AR within this schematic.
Phase C
(4/24-5/05)
The Spring
The Spring is known to be the Primary Shake out of the consolidation period. This is intended to shake out the "weak hands" within the asset. By creating a sense of urgency, it can entice short-term traders and those with shaky confidence to sell their holdings. The spring is characterized by a sudden and rapid decline in price, often accompanied by a moderate increase in volume. Another characteristic is low volume. After the Initial shake out there will be a price action rebound that Signifies the selling pressure has been exhausted and buyers are stepping back in.
As you can see on the chart, the price breaks the bottom support range shortly after jumps back in proving buyers are back in the market.
Phase D
(5/05-current)
Last Point of Supply
As defined above, this event consists of a price movement to the upper part of the range with lower selling volume when the price pushes off the resistance area of the range. This is very indicative of the LPS stage of this phase.
Sign of Strength
The last stage in Phase D is the Sign of Strength. For the time being we are waiting to see this event unfold. The first indication we will have that this is taking place is the break of the top of the trading range around $73,250. If this happens we can expect the expansion phase out of the range to take place.
In conclusion, by analyzing the recent price action of Bitcoin through the lens of the Wyckoff re-accumulation schematic, we've identified several key events. The presence of a Buying Climax, Secondary Test, Automatic Reaction, and Spring all suggest a potential accumulation phase might be underway. The recent price movement towards the upper resistance zone with lower volume hints at a Last Point of Supply, which could be followed by a breakout if confirmed by Signs of Strength, such as a surge in volume accompanying a price move above the consolidation range. While further observation is needed to solidify these signals, the Wyckoff framework offers valuable insights into the possible direction of the Bitcoin market. Remember, the Wyckoff method is a probabilistic tool, and future price movements can deviate from these expectations.
Quote From Richard Wyckoff
"I not only aim to make money but, to keep it and make it grow"
Stay Growing My Friends,
Savvy
