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Wyckoff

BITCOIN WEEKLY WYCKOFF — DISTRIBUTION OR REACCUMULATION?BTC has formed a textbook Wyckoff structure on the weekly chart — but are we entering Phase D markdown, or is this just a trap before continuation? 📉 Distribution Case (Primary Bias): BC → UT → UTAD clearly defined Bearish RSI divergence at UTAD confirms momentum exhaustion Volume drying up = weakening demand 🎯 Targeting the 0.618–0.66 fib zone near 87k–89k, confluence with previous structure 🧠 Reaccumulation Possibility (Alternative Scenario): Structure also mimics Reaccumulation Schematic #2 If support at 101k–104k holds and price reclaims 112k with strong volume → UTAD may prove to be a SOS, not a trap ⚠️ Levels to Watch: 🔺 UTAD: 112,087 🔸 BCLX: 108,496 → structural pivot 🔻 AR: 92,160 → distribution confirmation if lost 🎯 Target: 89,050 – 87,206 (fib + horizontal confluence) 🟠 Final invalidation for reaccumulation: weekly close below 87k Whether we’re heading for Phase D markdown or one final shakeout before markup, this structure will define BTC’s path for the coming months. Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims UTAD with strength. Conviction: Grows with breakdown + volume spike under 101k.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by BitcoinMillio18
POLAND - WIG20 - ALLEGRO going UP soon (MID THERM)Im watching this asset few months now with all its latest ups and downs. There is my trading plan for near future. Based on Elliot waves theory and Wyckoff accumulation schematic i think that we are see higher tops soon. Elliot: Currently in the beginning of third impulse wave. Second wave ended at 0.618 of first wave. Wyckoff: End of phase C / beginning of phase D First target 38-39 PLN Second target 42-45 PLN Third target (end of 3rd impulse wave) 49-52 PLN. Let me know what you think in the comments below, happy trading. Its only my opinion, not investing advice.
GPW:ALELong
by miloszgierczak
2
BTCUSDT – Bear Flag Breakdown Imminent?Price is forming a textbook bear flag following the sharp drop from ~108.8K. The structure shows rising lows in a tight channel, typically a pause before further downside. 📉 Bear Flag Anatomy: Breakdown support: ~104,000 Measured move target: 98,810 RSI: 49.94 — hovering just below neutral, watch for dip <40 for breakdown confirmation. Volume: Still low — waiting for a spike to confirm supply pressure. 🧨 Trigger Conditions: 4H close below flag support RSI < 40 Volume spike above 20-bar average (~1.96M) 🎯 Short Plan: Entry: Rejection from the fib golden pocket or flag support breakdown TP: 98,800 (pattern target, confluence with prior support) 🔍 If confirmed, this breakdown could mark the start of a Phase E markdown in Wyckoff terms. 💬 Let me know your thoughts below — are you shorting this flag or expecting a fakeout? #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #BearFlag #ShortSetup #Wyckoff #PriceAction #4HChart
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by BitcoinMillio18
BTC Breakdown – Reaccumulation at RiskBitcoin just posted a decisive 4H candle close below 55 SMA, mid-Bollinger Band, and the primary ascending trendline. Volume spiked to 7.31M, and RSI dropped to 38, confirming bearish momentum. ⸻ 🧩 Wyckoff Structure Under Threat: • ❌ LPS level invalidated • ❌ Phase D uptrend broken • 📉 No breakout above ATH (~109.8K) after three attempts • 🟠 Still holding BC (Pole End) at ~105.8K • 🔁 If this breaks next, the entire Phase D/E thesis collapses ⸻ 🔻 What’s Next? • Support: • S1: Lower BB (~106.9K) • S2: 105.8K (BC level — key structural base) • Break of 105.8K = invalidation of reaccumulation, transition into potential distribution. Watch for daily close for confirmation. • S3: Point of control at 104k ⸻ 📊 Breakdown Triggers Confirmed: • ✅ Close below mid-BB (108.9K) • ✅ RSI < 45 • ✅ High-volume red candle • ✅ Structural break of ascending LPS pattern A short hedge can be initiated with a tight stop over breaking candle high. Note that this could be the shakeout moment i mentioned in my related post. ⸻ Unless BTC recovers 108.5K+ with rising volume quickly, this is now a valid short breakdown, and reaccumulation thesis hangs by a thread. #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Wyckoff #Breakdown #CryptoTA #BTC4H #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by BitcoinMillio18
1
BTC Daily Breakdown – Major Uptrend BreachedBitcoin has now closed below the multi-week ascending trendline on the daily chart — the same trendline that defined the entire Phase D markup structure. ⸻ 🔍 Breakdown Highlights: 📉 Daily Close: 107,764 → well below trendline ✅ 🔻 Volume: 18.42M (near 20-day average) → not a panic candle, but confirms exit ✅ 📉 Fibonacci Cluster: 0.5 (107,093) and 0.618 (105,495) now in play ✅ ⚠️ RSI (14): 61.14 → still neutral, but diverging from price ❗ 🧱 Next supports: • 106,146 = BB basis • 105,821 = BC Pole End • 104,000 = Point of control from volume profile ⸻ 🧩 Structural Impact (Wyckoff View): • ❌ Trendline break = Phase D invalidated • ❌ No breakout above ATH (109,852) after 3 attempts • 🟠 Still not fully invalidated — if 105.8K holds, Spring-like scenario still possible • 🔻 Close below 105.8K = Phase C fails → transition into Redistribution ⸻ ⚠️ What to Watch Next: • Bounce from 106.1–105.5K with volume could offer one last recovery setup • A close below 105.8K confirms structural invalidation ⸻ 🧠 Final Take: The trendline break is real. Bulls need to defend the Fibonacci cluster + BC base around 105.8K. If that gives way, this becomes a failed reaccumulation and BTC risks a deeper structural rotation. #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Breakdown #Trendline #TechnicalAnalysis #Wyckoff #BTC #CryptoMarkets #BTCdaily
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by BitcoinMillio18
PLUG 1H Long Swing Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + 1/2 correction + volume zone - strong approach + ICE level + support level + volumed Sp Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Trend "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 level + support level + biggest volume 2Sp- + weak test" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + support level + T2 level + biggest volume reaction bar = below 1/2 correction" Yearly CounterTrend - short impulse Will add more after successful test on 1H and / or after test completes on 1D.
NASDAQ:PLUGLong
by MishaSuvorov
BTC 4H – Final Shakeout Before Markup?Bitcoin continues to coil below ATH resistance, now forming a second symmetrical pennant after the first flagpole breakout. Price is wedged between the ascending trendline support and persistent ATH rejection (~109.8K) — and the next move could define the entire Phase D → Phase E transition. 🧠 Wyckoff Reaccumulation Context: ✅ Spring + Test confirmed ~May 19 ✅ Multiple LPS retests held around 107–108K ✅ Two clear SOS rallies tested above the creek 📌 Currently in late Phase D, facing third rejection from ATH ⚠️ Compression Observations: RSI (14): 49.88 → neutral to bearish momentum Volume: No conviction from either side Lower BB + BU lows (~107K): A logical Spring zone for a potential wick-down fakeout Price remains within channel and trendline support 🔄 Key Scenarios: 🟡 Bullish (Spring + Markup) Wick below trendline to 107K zone RSI bounce + green volume spike Break + close above 110K → Confirms Phase E Markup 🎯 Targets: Measured Move 1: 116,199 Measured Move 2 (Pennant): 119,958 Fib Cluster: 117,444 – 118,234 🔴 Bearish Breakdown Close below 107K LPS with volume RSI drops < 45 Structural failure → risks reversion to AR (~100.6K) and possibly BC 🧭 Conclusion: Bitcoin is in the decision apex of a second pennant. If we see a wick-down + bounce (Spring-like behavior), it could be the last reload before a markup wave. But without volume and momentum, this remains a fragile structure — stay patient, let the chart confirm. #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Wyckoff #Pennant #CryptoTA #BTC4H #VolumeAnalysis #RSI
BINANCE:BTCUSD.P
by BitcoinMillio18
BTCUSDT 4H – Reaccumulation Apex Compression | Decision Time📌 Price is now being squeezed between major trendline support and ATH resistance (~110K) — forming an apex structure, typical of Wyckoff Phase D → Phase E transitions. 🧠 Wyckoff Structure So Far: Phase A/B/C: BC → ST → UT → Spring → LPS Phase D: Multiple SOS rallies followed by a BU (backup to edge of creek) Now: Testing the upper boundary of the range again — is this the launch point for Markup (Phase E)? 🔼 Bullish Breakout Conditions: ✅ 4H close above 110,625 ✅ Rising volume above 27.4K MA ✅ RSI > 60 🟢 Targets: TP1: 116,199 (measured move from pennant) TP2: 117,449–118,237 (Fib confluence zone) TP3: Trailing TP with 1.0% callback 🔽 Bearish Breakdown Risk: ❌ Close below 107,867 with RSI < 45 + rising volume Would signal failure of the BU and reversion toward: BC: 105,863 AR: 100,678 📊 Indicators: RSI: 55.77 (neutral/bullish) Volume: Still below average — shows compression 55 SMA: 107,762.7 BB Midline: 108,653.9 ⚖️ No hedge short entry valid yet Let the apex resolve — patience until confirmation. #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Wyckoff #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BTC
by BitcoinMillio18
BTCUSDT – Reaccumulation Breakout or Bearish S/R Flip?Timeframes: 1W • 1D • 4H Structure: Wyckoff Reaccumulation nearing Phase E — but ATH is acting as resistance 🔹 WEEKLY OUTLOOK: Macro Structure Points to Markup Last weekly candle closed above the reaccumulation Buying Climax (BC), showing bullish intent Weekly upper Bollinger Band is rising toward 113k RSI at 67, strong but not overbought Structure suggests we’re entering Wyckoff Phase E Weekly Targets: 🟢 TP1: 113,049 (Upper BB) 🟢 TP2: 116,199 (measured move) 🟢 TP3: 118,237 (Fib 0.66 extension) 🔹 DAILY OUTLOOK: Still Holding Above Reaccumulation Range Multiple daily closes above the BU (backup) zone, but all below 110k ATH RSI is strong (~66), and price is tracking near the upper BB, but volume is not convincing Until a daily close above 110,000, breakout remains unconfirmed 🔹 4H OUTLOOK: Structure Valid, Momentum Rising BU zone held; price made two lower lows followed by a higher high RSI has reclaimed 57+, and volume is picking up modestly 4H structure looks like an early Phase E breakout attempt, but... ⚠️ Caution: Is This a Bearish S/R Flip? While the broader Wyckoff structure suggests a transition into markup, we must also consider the bearish scenario: BTC may be failing a support/resistance flip at 110k All timeframes have rejected at or below 110k, despite multiple attempts If we see a lower high under 109k + 1D close below 105,863 with red volume and RSI < 45 → this becomes a confirmed bull trap 📊 TL;DR: BTC is structurally bullish — but we are at the final test zone. 🔓 Breakout confirmed: Daily close above 110k 🔒 Failure confirmed: Close below 105,863 + red volume + RSI breakdown Stay nimble. This is either the last shakeout before markup… or the top of the range before reversal. #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Wyckoff #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Reaccumulation #Breakout #SupportResistance
Long
by BitcoinMillio18
Looking for new ATH for PPC?Interesting chart with a few options. Overall, liking the current 4th time breakout (pending current monthly close), but must be careful as it's a small cap. The range has been developing well since 2009 with price now in a clear uptrend. We're now expecting a SOS to range highs/major 50% level followed by a pullback to continue into phase E. Once we get the pullback there isn't much resistance until the supply structure then near ATHs *please note the lines are not time analysis just price pathing
ASX:PPCLong
by AlvinDeo96
Bitcoin Breakout Under Threat or Bullish Retest?1D Chart • Price broke above ATH (~110K) on May 22 with a +1.87% gain, backed by strong volume (~413K vs 190K avg) — signaling legitimate breakout intent. • May 23 followed with a -3.93% bearish engulfing candle, closing back below ATH on elevated sell volume (~279K). • Despite the rejection, the breakout bar showed no upper wick exhaustion, so not a blow-off. • RSI = 63.26 — still bullish but curling down. • Price is testing the channel midline; Fib extensions (117.4K–118.2K) remain unmet. Conclusion: Initial breakout was technically valid and volume-confirmed, but price is now under threat. Loss of 103.9K would invalidate the structure and raise distribution risks. ⸻ 4H Chart • Price closed 4 times below mid-Bollinger Band — short-term momentum has weakened. • RSI bounced back above 50, avoiding breakdown territory. • Volume is tapering (weekend), and price is hovering just above the previous LPS zone. • Watching for resolution from a potential Backup (BU) retest. ⸻ Wyckoff View • Still within Phase E of re-accumulation — unless 103–105K breaks decisively. • Valid structure: Spring → LPS → SOS → BU(?) • A break below structure = possible UTAD scenario ⸻ Key Levels • Support: 105,863 / 103,986 / 100,678 • Resistance: 110,000 / 112,100 / 116,199 • Target Extension Zone: 117,449 – 118,237
Long
by BitcoinMillio18
BTCUSDT 4H — Re-Accumulation in Play or Breakdown Brewing?Bitcoin is currently testing a critical confluence zone just below the prior ATH breakout (110k). After a clear Sign of Strength (SOS) breakout, price has retraced to retest the: 🔸 Mid Bollinger Band (108.9k) 🔸 Previous ATH breakout zone 🔸 Local channel support & uptrend line RSI is neutral at 50.76 and volume remains slightly elevated — suggesting a potential BU/LPS retest phase in this Wyckoff re-accumulation. 📉 Breakdown Risk? So far, no breakdown triggers confirmed per our risk model: ⛔ Price > lower BB (104.5k) ⛔ RSI > 45, not in weak momentum ⛔ No pattern breakdown with RSI < 40 That means no short hedge activated yet — but caution is warranted. A close below 104.5k with weak RSI & volume spike would invalidate the bullish structure. 🎯 Upside Targets if BU Holds: Resistance: 113.2k (Upper BB) Measured move from the pennant: 116.2k Further confluence at 118.2k (Fib 0.66 extension) 🧠 Weekend Watchlist: Do not trade based on 4H chart to avoid fakeouts and traps. Use it as early signal and confirm with daily close! 🔹 Hold above mid-BB keeps re-accumulation valid 🔹 Breakdown below lower-BB = structural failure 🔹 Volatility likely to spike — stay risk-managed 📚 Still within Wyckoff markup logic unless proven otherwise.
by BitcoinMillio18
1
BTC Re-Accumulation Breakout | Daily Close Confirmed | Phase DBitcoin just confirmed its first daily close above the pennant breakout, reclaiming the previous ATH (~110K) with conviction. We now have both structural breakout confirmation on the 1D chart and clear Wyckoff Phase D progression on the 4H. ⸻ 1D Chart Highlights: • Daily Close: 110,993 • Breakout from bullish pennant • Volume expanding into the breakout • RSI: 75.38 → strong momentum, not overbought exhaustion • TP Ladder: • TP1: 112.8K (Upper BB) • TP2: 116.2K (Fib 0.618) • TP3: 118.2K (Fib 0.66 + trailing) ⸻ 4H Chart Highlights (Wyckoff Re-Accumulation): • SPRING → TEST → LPS → SOS • Structure has shifted into Phase D • Currently forming a BU→ATH zone retest (textbook Back-Up) • Volume declining, showing lack of supply • RSI: 67.60 (bullish territory) ⸻ No Short Hedge Triggered ⸻ Summary: This is a low-risk consolidation above previous ATH, backed by strong momentum and classic Wyckoff mechanics. As long as BTC holds above ~110K and volume remains controlled, bullish continuation toward 116–118K remains the base case. ⸻ #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Wyckoff #Crypto #Reaccumulation #Breakout #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #PhaseD
Long
by BitcoinMillio18