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Wyckoff

NVS 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level - biggest volume 2Sp- Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R within 1H range take profit Daily Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + JOC level + support level - above 1/2 of entire 1D wave at the support level of 1M" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + support level + JOC level - unvolumed manipulation" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse - resistance level + less than a month left and it looks to break + long volume distribution" NVS @NYSE Bought NVS Market, Day Filled 8:27 AM 104.89325 Profit Taker Sell NVS Limit 105.87, GTC Submitted 8:27 AM
NYSE:NVS
by MishaSuvorov
ES may not close high this fridayCME_MINI:ESH2025 is likely will not close above Thursday high today (Friday). If it is so, then we may see the test of Thursday and Wednesday Cash session Low, which are poor low, On Monday. but that shall be only a temporary correction. ES fail to stay above Yesterday high and ON high today, but it doesn't show aggressive liquidation today. so, need more caution for shorting ES on Monday. CME_MINI:NQH2025 also doesn't show any strength on Friday session one. for now, ha
CME_MINI:ESH2025Short
by ruby_kinetix
The Wyckoff Accumulation Method. And how it can make you money.Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was a trailblazer in the early 20th century, known for his innovative technical methods in stock market analysis. He ranks among the five great figures of technical analysis, alongside Dow, Gann, Elliott, and Merrill. At just 15 years old, he began his career as a stock runner for a brokerage in New York. By his twenties, he had already risen to the position of head of his firm. Wyckoff was a passionate learner of the markets, deeply engaged in tape reading and trading. He closely monitored the market manoeuvres and strategies of the iconic stock traders of his era, such as JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. Through his keen observations and discussions with these prominent figures, Wyckoff distilled the most effective practices of Livermore and others into a set of laws, principles, and techniques that shaped his trading methodology, money management strategies, and mental discipline. Mr. Wyckoff noticed that many retail investors were consistently being taken advantage of. In response, he committed himself to educating the public on “the true rules of the game” as dictated by major players, often referred to as “smart money.” In the 1930s, he established a school that eventually evolved into the Stock Market Institute. The primary focus of the school was a course that combined Wyckoff's insights on recognising the accumulation and distribution strategies of large operators with techniques for aligning one’s investments with these influential entities. His enduring principles remain just as relevant today as they were when he first shared them. “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2) Wyckoff advised retail traders to try to play the market game as the Composite Man played it. He claimed that it doesn't matter if market moves “are real or artificial; that is, the result of actual buying and selling by the public and bona fide investors or artificial buying and selling by larger operators.” Wyckoff, drawing from his extensive observations of the market activities of major players, imparted several key insights: The Composite Man meticulously strategises, implements, and wraps up his market campaigns. He entices the public to invest in a stock where he has built a significant position by engaging in numerous transactions, effectively promoting his stock and creating the illusion of a “broad market.” To truly grasp the dynamics at play, one must analyse individual stock charts to discern the behaviour of the stock and the intentions of the large operators who influence it. With dedicated study and practice, individuals can develop the skill to decode the underlying motives reflected in a chart's movements. Wyckoff and his colleagues believed that by understanding the market behaviour of the Composite Man, traders could spot numerous trading and investment opportunities early enough to capitalise on them. One goal of the Wyckoff method is to enhance market timing when entering a position by predicting an upcoming movement that offers a favourable reward-to-risk ratio. Trading ranges (TRs) represent areas where the previous trend, whether upward or downward, has paused, creating a relative balance between supply and demand. During these TRs, institutions and large professional players gear up for their next bullish or bearish strategies by either accumulating or distributing shares. In both accumulation and distribution phases within TRs, the Composite Man is actively engaged in buying and selling. The key difference lies in the fact that during accumulation, the volume of shares bought exceeds those sold, whereas in distribution, the opposite occurs. The degree of accumulation or distribution ultimately influences the nature of the subsequent movement out of the TR. Springs and shakeouts typically happen towards the end of a trading range (TR), providing key players in the stock market an opportunity to thoroughly assess the available supply before initiating a markup phase. A "spring" occurs when the price dips below the lowest point of the TR, only to rebound and close back within the range. This maneuver can create confusion among the public regarding the future direction of the stock, allowing major investors to acquire more shares at lower prices. A terminal shakeout, which takes place at the conclusion of an accumulation TR, is essentially an amplified version of a spring. Additionally, shakeouts can happen even after a price increase has begun, characterized by a swift drop designed to prompt retail traders and long-position investors to sell their shares to larger market players. To sum up, while there is much more to explore on this topic, Richard D. Wyckoff's groundbreaking contributions in the early 1900s highlighted that stock price movements are largely influenced by institutional players and significant market operators who often sway prices to their advantage. Although many professional traders incorporate Wyckoff's techniques, his comprehensive approach remains underutilised among retail investors, despite his aim to educate the public on the "true rules of the game." His methods for stock selection and investment have proven resilient over time, thanks to their detailed, systematic, and logical framework for pinpointing high-probability, lucrative trades. This disciplined strategy empowers investors to make rational trading choices, free from emotional bias. By applying Wyckoff's principles, investors can align themselves with the strategies of influential "smart money" players, avoiding the pitfalls of being on the wrong side of market movements. Mastering Wyckoff analysis demands significant practice, but the rewards are undoubtedly worthwhile.
PULSEX:HEXWPLS_F1F4EE.USDLong
by BallaJi
Bitcoin and Wyckoff Accumulation D1BINANCE:BTCUSDT Lets check classic Wyckoff Accumulation phase since drop In June. This is D1 Timeframe and if Historically October is green month with 15-60% moves up. We have an all chances break resistance and hit even 28-30K. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. * Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ * For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITMEX:XBTLong
by Crypto4light
5
Bitcoin LTF Signals Wyckoff Phase D Potential Near Term WeaknessSeems volatility is the name of the game as power changes hands in Washington, D.C., and Memecoins are set to swallow up market liquidity (for better or worse). Personally, I’ve never really cared for Memecoins, and tend to focus on POW governance tokens for long term value. Seems the “interesting times” of that Chinese Proverb are upon us. On the LTF (1D) Point and Figure, the formation is currently printing a distribution pattern, completing Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution pattern. Phase C in a distributive phase generally reveals itself through a (or some) strong Upward Thrust (UT) and/or a (or some) Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD). The formation has already printed a Shakeout Distribution Spring to the $89,200 handle in Phase B, and subsequently printed the first Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) to the $105,800 handle signaling the beginning of Phase C distribution had started. The formation printed a subsequent UTAD to the $109,200 handle - all typical activity we would expect to see in Phase C of a distribution cycle. The following Test of that UTAD at the $106,400 handle, printed a lower high and signaled both (i) the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) for Phase C of this distribution cycle, and (ii) the end of Phase C of this distribution cycle. Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is generally signaled when the formation prints a Major Sign Of Weakness (MSOW) which “Breaks the Ice” of the lower level of support within the Trade Range. This sets up an excellent Risk/Reward opportunity for a potential short swing trade position. The current formation suggests that a move to the $90,600 handle is in play in the near term as Phase C of this distribution cycle completes and moves into Phase D. There is a potential longer near-term play for $85,600 as the formation moves into the final phase (Phase E) of this distribution cycle. Provided the LPSY formed on the Return to Ice move tops out at the $92,800 handle the Horizontal Price Count should be accurate. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
SMLT 1D Aggressive Investment CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse + biggest volume T1 + support level + biggest volume 2Sp+ + weak test + first bullish bar closed entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit CounterTrend 1M "+ short impulse + biggest volume TE / T1 level + support level + biggest manipulation?" Trend 12M "+ SOS test level - far below 1/2 correction + support level + biggest volume manipulation?" They say company is going to bankruptcy, but why would it concern technical analysis?!
RUS:SMLTLong
by MishaSuvorov
WARNING: BTC USDT MOVE! US SELLS THEIR BTC (silk road BTC)💰 Current Bitcoin Price: Bitcoin is trading at approximately $93,456.76, with a 7-day decline of 3.54%. 📊 Macroeconomic Factors: Strong US economic data and inflation concerns have negatively impacted Bitcoin as the Federal Reserve moderates interest rate cuts. 💵 Global Liquidity: Bitcoin’s price is pressured by contractions in the M2 money supply, though historical trends show potential for recovery with increased liquidity. 😟 Market Sentiment: The Greed & Fear Index has shifted from extreme fear to cautious optimism, reflecting mixed investor confidence. 🪙 Investor Behavior: Exchange withdrawals are reducing supply, while profit-taking activities have influenced recent price corrections. 📉 Historical Patterns: January slumps are common for Bitcoin following US presidential elections, aligning with historical trends. 🚀 Future Outlook: Institutional interest and potential increases in global liquidity could drive Bitcoin’s price recovery and stability in early 2025. STUDY TIME! PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes, as heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. Test—Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume. SOS—sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. LPS—last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU—”back-up”. This term is short hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level. Note: Springs or shakeouts usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by osodatsismoso
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave Theory, Part 3Hello Traders. With the new year upon us, I think sufficient time has passed for the charts to develop from our previous #Bitcoin analysis. Having accurately forecasted the macro trends for each pivot within a reasonable margin of error, I believe we're approaching another pivotal moment this year, aligning with our previous predictions. Please take this post with a grain of salt, and more importantly, please use it to add confluence to your personal theories. In this post, we will be diving deeper into the Elliott Wave Theory by also integrating the Wyckoff Market Cycle Theory. By combining the two theories, the chart below represents our current position within the final leg for what could be giving us signs of a possible reversal (again, within margin of error depending on how far wave 5 extends): Wyckoff believed that markets move in cycles, which arguably has a direct correlation to the Elliott Wave 5-wave/3-wave cycle. Wyckoff introduced a four-stage market cycle , attributing it to the actions of institutional players who strategically influence price movements to capitalize on the behavior of uninformed traders. Simply put, the theory gives us a further understanding of 'cause and effect' within the markets. In my view, the Wyckoff cycle also does a fantastic job of representing market psychology. And if intertwined correctly with the Elliott Wave Theory, price action tends to follow patterns in similar ways. The Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Theory often overlap in their application and interpretation of market behavior, but they approach the market from different perspectives. Both theories aim to understand and predict market movements based on the behavior of market participants and price cycles, making them complementary in many ways. Commonalities Between the Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Theory: Market Cycles - Wyckoff Theory identifies a four-stage market cycle: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. The Elliott Wave Theory also emphasizes cyclic behavior through a fractal structure of impulsive and corrective waves within broader market cycles. - Both theories suggest that price movements are not random but follow identifiable patterns driven by market psychology. Psychological Basis - Wyckoff focuses on the interaction between "big players" (institutional traders) and "uninformed traders," highlighting group psychology and how institutional actions exploit public sentiment. - Elliott Wave focuses on the crowd psychology behind price movements, suggesting that mass investor sentiment drives waves in predictable patterns. **Both theories reflect the influence of human behavior and emotions on market prices.** Application Across Timeframes - Both theories are applicable across multiple timeframes, from intraday trading to long-term investments. This flexibility allows traders to use them in conjunction for deeper market analysis. Identification of Trends and Reversals - In Wyckoff Theory, phases like Markup and Markdown align with Elliott Wave's impulsive trends, while Accumulation and Distribution phases can correspond to corrective wave patterns. - Both approaches aim to identify key turning points in the market, helping traders anticipate trends and reversals. ----- The Four Stages of the Market Cycle According to Wyckoff Accumulation Phase This is a sideways range where institutional traders accumulate positions quietly to avoid driving prices higher. During this phase, the asset remains out of the public spotlight, and uninformed traders are largely unaware of the activity. On a price chart, the phase appears as a range-bound movement between areas of support and resistance. Markup Phase Following the accumulation phase, the market enters a classic uptrend. As prices rise, uninformed traders begin to notice and join in, further fueling the rally. Institutional players may take partial profits or continue holding for greater gains. Short sellers caught off guard are forced to cover their positions, adding additional buying pressure and driving prices to new highs. Distribution Phase After the uptrend loses momentum, the market transitions into a sideways range, marking the distribution phase. Institutional players use this period to offload their holdings, while uninformed traders, still expecting higher prices, continue to buy. Some institutional traders may also initiate short positions during this phase to benefit from the subsequent price decline. On the price chart, this phase appears as a reversal of the uptrend into a sideways range. Markdown Phase The markdown phase is characterized by a downtrend following the distribution phase. Institutional traders add to their short positions, while uninformed traders, recognizing the decline too late, sell in panic, creating further downward pressure. The market eventually reaches new lows as selling accelerates. The Model of Group Psychology After the markdown phase, the cycle often repeats, moving from accumulation to markup, distribution, and markdown again. The Wyckoff cycle offers a simplified perspective on market behavior, focusing on the psychological dynamics between two groups: institutional traders (the "big players") and uninformed traders (the "small players"). It highlights how the mistakes and emotional reactions of uninformed traders often benefit institutional players. The Wyckoff cycle provides valuable insights into market behavior but is not without limitations: Limitations of the Wyckoff Trading Cycle Difficulty in Identifying Phases Distinguishing between accumulation and distribution phases can be challenging. What appears to be an accumulation phase might turn into a distribution phase, with the market unexpectedly breaking lower. Timing Challenges Entering trades during accumulation or distribution phases is difficult due to the lack of clear stop-loss levels. Placing stops around support and resistance often leads to being trapped. Complexity in Trading Trends Trading the markup and markdown phases requires skill, as they are filled with complex price action patterns. Modern markets often experience frequent trend reversals, complicating trade execution. Irregular Cycles The market does not always follow the textbook sequence of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Variations such as accumulation followed by markdown or other combinations are possible. Despite its limitations, the Wyckoff cycle remains a useful framework for understanding market behavior. It is best combined with other strategies, such as price action and market dynamics, to enhance its practical applicability. While modern markets may reduce the cycle's predictive reliability, it still serves as a powerful tool for traders who know how to apply it effectively. Proper Application of the Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Overlap (in Practice): Trend Identification: The Markup Phase in Wyckoff often aligns with Elliott's Impulse Waves (1, 3, and 5), while the Markdown Phase aligns with corrective waves or bearish impulses. Sideways Markets: Wyckoff’s Accumulation and Distribution phases correspond to Elliott’s Corrective Waves (A-B-C) or sideways consolidations (Flats and Triangles). Volume Confirmation: Traders can use Wyckoff’s volume analysis to validate Elliott Wave patterns, especially in identifying wave 3's (typically accompanied by high volume) and wave 5's (often showing declining volume). Timing and Execution: Wyckoff’s emphasis on identifying support/resistance levels and trading ranges can help refine the entry and exit points suggested by the Elliott Wave Theory. Combining the Two: Many traders find value in combining these theories: - Use Wyckoff to identify key price levels and market phases (e.g., when accumulation or distribution is occurring). - Use Elliott Wave to determine the broader trend structure and anticipate the next moves within those levels. - By integrating Wyckoff’s volume-driven approach with Elliott’s fractal patterns, traders can gain a comprehensive view of the market and improve their ability to time trades effectively. ---- By integrating the concepts from both theories and the outlined schematics, we can now take a closer look at how Bitcoin is behaving through the lens of these frameworks. As observed, Bitcoin appears to be nearing the completion of the potential 5th wave we've been discussing over the past year. In my view, a bear market (or at least a significant correction) may be approaching. While timing is uncertain due to the unlikely nature of extensions, we can use insights from both Wyckoff and Elliott Wave theories to gauge our current position. I believe we are likely in the Distribution phase, which aligns with the 5th wave. The 5th wave can extend as much as it wants, but it won't change the overall conclusion of the cycle. We still anticipate the cyclical behavior that Bitcoin has shown in the past. While past price action isn't necessarily a predictor of future movements, it often follows a similar pattern.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
22
ES still in decision after drop before xmasBond Auction Demand Analysis The recent 10-year Bond Auction showed weaker demand with a 0.2 tails basis point, indicating reduced investor interest compared to previous auctions. The high bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53 suggests challenges for the stock market rally as investors seek higher yields. A 30-year Bond Auction on January 9th will provide further insights into market trends. Jobless Claims Report Impact The Initial Jobless Claims report showed favorable results, which could support a steady move in the market, particularly in the CME_MINI:ESH2025 ES index. Traders are closely monitoring these developments as they assess the implications for interest rates and overall market performance. Market Reaction and Expectations During the first session of the US market, there was little decision-making movement, indicating a need for more information on market reactions. With a national holiday approaching and a 30-year Bond Auction scheduled, a quieter market is expected in the interim.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ruby_kinetix
ES on early Jan'25 CME_MINI:ESH2025 Market Balance Dynamics The market is currently exhibiting a prolonged initial balance on the downside, indicating a period of consolidation. Accumulation of Passive Buyers There seems to be a potential accumulation of passive buyers taking advantage of the downtrend, suggesting that buying interest may be building. Uncertainty in Market Movements However, it is still too early in the market to predict definitive movements, leaving room for either further downward trends or recovery.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ruby_kinetix
Bitcoin - A quarter of a million dollars - is it possible?Good Morning, Good Evening! A new year brings new candles, new opportunities and new challenges. I decided to write down my new thoughts and, where appropriate, reflect on my previous analyses. Naturally, my primary focus is on the asset that leads the cryptocurrency market – Bitcoin. I must mention that I am not someone with formal education in this field. I am self-taught, placing a strong emphasis on using Technical Analysis as the main component of my decision-making process. This stems from my belief that although the chart is difficult to read, it largely allows for the interpretation of the hidden intentions of "smart money." I want to stress that the following words reflect only my personal point of view, which may not be correct, and that this publication is by no means investment or educational advice as understood by any law regulating such matters. I simply intend to ramble about topics I don’t fully understand. Background Since its inception, Bitcoin has been in a continuous long-term upward trend. Throughout this time, there have been four minor reaccumulation structures and four major ones, occurring chronologically. Each structure has taken progressively longer to form, and the upward trend has been gradually flattening over time. Technical Analysis and Thoughts In this analysis, I will apply tools from volume analysis, Wyckoff methodology, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), and Elliott Wave Theory. At the beginning, I will refer to an analysis I published about a year and a half ago on this platform: "Comparative Analysis of BTC," 24.09.2023 (links attached). Looking back at my previous analysis, I see that my reasoning and chosen tools were correct. As is often the case in attempts to master the market using Technical Analysis, the price action deviated from the expected scenario. However, the primary trend remained intact. I missed certain key structures, such as the Spring, which I would interpret differently today. But I will get to that later. The key resistance levels, derived from price structure and Fibonacci extensions, appear to have been recognized by the market. The price stalled just below the resistance level at 2.618, an extension based on the Spring-Buying Exhaustion range from 2015 and 2017/2018 reaccumulation phases. Similarly, the external measurement of 1.618, calculated from the 2017/2018 Spring to the 2021 Upthrust, was respected by market participants. Both levels align perfectly with significant price points. I mentioned that today I would approach the topic differently. This is due to the revealed market structure (it's always easier to analyze when you can see everything, right? 😉) as well as the experience I've gained by continuously expanding my analytical horizon. Looking at the latest high-order reaccumulation structure (December 2021 – March 2024), I realize I made an error in my interpretation. The overall price action indicates a lack of supply around the $16K level. Interestingly, BTC/USDT on Binance shows significant accumulation, which I deduce from Bag Holding candles. The core point of my argument is that I have witnessed the formation of a large accumulation structure, whose elements align with the Wyckoff methodology. The market behaved as expected based on this interpretation. One particularly important element is the Last Point of Supply (LPS), represented by the March 2024 – November 2024 reaccumulation phase. I discussed this process in detail in my September 6, 2024 publication titled "Bitcoin – Technical Analysis." The ~250-day trading range, during which the price was stuck, allowed Smart Money to accumulate assets from those willing to sell. Despite the temporary stagnation, which I currently observe, the upward trend will likely continue. The strength of this trend is confirmed by the use of volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the Test of Phase C, according to Wyckoff's methodology. When analyzing the three most recent tests in the three highest-order reaccumulation structures, I observe that the price moves within a channel defined by the second and third standard deviations. I think that the current sideways structure is a Back Up to the Creek from the latest high-order reaccumulation phase. Its characteristics resemble a reaccumulation phase. At this stage, I am unsure whether this structure will directly lead to a breakout to significantly higher price levels, or whether it will result in an Upthrust of a higher-order structure, followed by another Spring. The structure shows declining volume and several Bag Holding candles, marked with green arrows on my chart. The Upthrust does not exhibit distribution characteristics but instead suggests a lack of demand. The candle marked with a question mark is interesting due to its dual nature. However, upon closer examination of the 4-hour interval, it appears to be an Upthrust of a lower-tier structure, aimed at absorbing supply. I want to highlight the relationship between the Test of Phase C and the structure forming along previous peaks. Considering the two most recent reaccumulation phases, the situation is as follows: I do not take into account overly optimistic price movements that exceed the 8.0 external retracement level, due to the flattening of the global trend over time. Instead, I consider more realistic targets based on Fibonacci levels, such as 3.618 and 2.618 extensions, indicating a price range between $170K and $230K. In my September 24, 2023 analysis, I mentioned $240K as a 3.618 external retracement level measured from March 2020 to October 2021. Using 1:1 geometry, I estimate that the price could reach around $250K, which aligns with my other methods. Conclusion of the Analysis I have presented various methods to identify the direction and potential range of Bitcoin's price movement. Although it is difficult to pinpoint the exact peak of the trend, the analysis provides sufficient signals to expect supply levels within the indicated price ranges. Confirmation of a trend reversal would require a high-order distribution structure visible on higher time frames. Final Thoughts I have intentionally referred to my previous analyses to maintain continuity and to highlight both successes and mistakes. The purpose of this reflection is to improve my analytical process by identifying what I did well and where I need to focus more in future analyses. I believe that Technical Analysis, practiced for over a century, holds a certain beauty and logic. The process of applying it, and reaping its rewards, is an intellectual delight. Ultimately, the weakest link is not the tool, but the person using it. Therefore, continuous improvement and patience are essential. The chart is the only reliable source that reveals the intentions of Smart Money or Composite Man, depending on the interpretation of market personality. Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts. I hope you found them insightful, and that your time was well spent. Wishing you health, perseverance, and successful trades. May you master the art of recognizing well-formed market structures. CatTheTrader
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by CatTheTrader
GBP USD Complete Analysis - Top Down - Structure wiseHi guys, Below im going to go through a detailed breakdown of GBP USD for longer term swing trades and what i am looking for to confirm any trade direction. Firstly i want to start of at the monthly time frame: Below is a photo of the monthly timeframe clearly showing bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows: So our monthly bias is bearish, and the last rally could just be a pull back to continue lower, However, considering that the low that was created in September of 2022 created a new all time low for the pair, i am skeptical that this pair will go any lower. Furthermore, looking at the price action from the low of 2016 till date we can see that price has been pretty much range bound, which also looks to be a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. However this will only be confirmed once price breaks above the last high marked up in the above drawing, as this will confirm bullish strength and a break of long term structure to the upside. Conclusion of monthly time frame analysis: Trend is bearish but it seems to be at it's turning point. So we need to see confirmations of lower timeframe to determine weather price will continue to drop or go higher. Now lets look at the daily time frame: Looking on the daily time frame we clearly see bullish structure, with higher lows and higher highs, however remember this entire structure could just be a pull back of the monthly time frame's bearish structure. So when will this move be considered a pull back of the bearish monthly structure? if price manages to break the recent low marked up in the above drawing at around 1.204. this will indicate a break of the bullish structure on the daily timeframe and a shift from bullish to bearish structure. As long as price is above this low, 1.204 then the structure will remain to be bullish. So to recap, on the monthly we are overall bearish but we are expecting that we are at the end of the bearish move, but we need to see the lower timeframes confirm if price wants to go higher. As of now, the daily structure is bullish and the structure is holding. So we can look for buys at this point. Lets go down to the 4 hr time frame: On the 4 hr timeframe we can see the clear bearish structure. but remember that as long as price is above the 1.204 mark then we are bullish on the daily, so this bearish structure gives us opportunities to enter long positions at lower prices. But in order to confirm that this bearish structure will not just continue to drop and shatter the 1.204 mark, then we need to see a shift in structure from bearish to bullish, which will occur when price breaks above the high in the above photo at around 1.28. This will indicate the end of this bearish pull back and a change in structure from bearish to bullish, so then we will have bullish structure on the 4 hr and the daily time frames. Entries however will be taken on the 15 or 5 min timeframes, when the time comes. For now i need to wait and see if the 4 hr structure will turn bullish or not. Also another note on the 4 hr timeframe, structure aside, we can see some signs of accumulation where we have just done a quick sweep and stop hunt of the lows which also indicate that bullish strength may enter soon. As shown in the below photo: So overall i am bullish on GBP USD but i need the 4 hr time frame to confirm my bias by breaking structure upwards and clearing the 1.28 mark. At that point we will scope in on the 15 min for entries on pull backs. The other scenario is if price continues to be bearish, and breaks the low on the daily time frame at around 1.204, this will completely shift our bias from bullish to bearish, and will look for sell positions on pull backs. So for now, we wait. Wait for price to show you what it wants to do, does it want to respect the bullish structure on the daily time frame? or does it want to shift the structure from bullish to bearish? this will be the deciding factor here. And based on that we can analyze further and look to take some good swing trades. If you made it this far, i thank you for your time and patience, and i hope this helped you in some way. Thank you, and happy new year to everyone!!
Long
by mohamed_hammoud
4
NFLX Elliot Wave, Wyckoff Method with Head & Shoulders PatternIt is not always easy to time a short, but looking at this chart I will share a couple of confluences that are interesting from a technical analysis point of view. First, there is a 5 wave completion of the Elliot Wave pattern. Then, based on the Wyckoff method of accumulation to distribution, we can gauge areas of UTAD and LPSY takes place. Lastly, we can form a Head & Shoulders pattern (a small one) and a neckline. One can carefully enter the short after the break and retest of the trendline, which is the safest way.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by solfury