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Wyckoff

UNI - Wyckoff Accumulation SOS/LPS + Volume#UNI I love to see these #Wyckoff Schematics play out, so profitable if you just add patience to your toolkit. This is exactly what we want to see, after the breach of the heaviest #resistance on chart, then that coil up resting on top of the now #support followed by that retest with heavy #volume sling shotting PA into infinity. If you missed the Spring and Adam & Eve at the bottom, and somehow all the signs before this, you still have time, you know what to do...
Long
by ANobleNerd
EWT - Wyckoff Accumulation + Volume #EWT This beautiful falling wedge or #bullflag has all the mechanics of a #Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic built into it, which can be seen by #volume tells in all the right places. After The low was breached note the negligible #volume, then observe the volume on the first solid bullish candle to break through the #wedge. What we want to see after is the follow-through retrace candles reaction, and not just the #volume, but the fact it snatched the stops on the candle a month before it. Pair that all with my favorite leading indicator, #OBV, which has already breached the last swing. I like this PA...
KRAKEN:EWTUSDLong
by ANobleNerd
#ETHBTC - #Wyckoff & #Volume & #Divergences & #Sentiment#ETHBTC The Broadening Wedge has a track record of being one of the most brutal patterns for emotional Traders to navigate, but if we peel back the layers to see what's happening of actual importance, that's when things start to get really interesting, IMO. This is very possibly a textbook Wyckoff bottom. It's presenting all the signs of what we want to see plus #ETHBTC has a history of combining extremely low sentiment with ruthless patterns. But once again just focus beyond the noise of PA and we can see what is volume or lack thereof in all the right places, paired with stacked divergences. Nothing is 100% certain in this place, but based on probabilities gauged over history and the rest of the story, I know what I'm doing...
Long
by ANobleNerd
LINK - The Stair Step + Double Bounce#LINK After a beautiful ABC correction after an Impulse wave #Link has taken multiple shots and cracked up through resistance and is now coiling up and stair stepping on top of support. When PA is as clean as this, with volume in all the right places. Yes there is incredible potential for clean gains, but more than that it's a spectacular example to learn from IMO. Such a beautiful illustration of how support & resistance work. I hope this helps provide a lens through the noise of PA so you can truly appreciate what's taking place in plain sight and hopefully also how to use this as a map for future gains.
Long
by ANobleNerd
Bears, if you're reading this it's too late We are in a highly volatile, increasingly risky environment with overwhelming bearish sentiment. - What the news has to say: "no hope, inflation, recession, bear market, war, fire, brimstone, kim kardashian tho, inflation, recession, etc..." (I can paraphrase: FUD) - What the math has to say: Most likely path over the next few weeks is an explosive run to 430s to complete X2 of a triple combo, followed by one more leg down to around 348 to complete Z - and thus, complete corrective wave IV. After that we will see a new All time high in wave V in late 2022/early 2023. ...This is nothing new, a lot of ideas are circulating on tradingview by those that know Elliot Wave very well - and until I get confirmation otherwise I have to agree that is the most likely case. This post, however, is meant to accomplish 2 goals: 1) Emphasize/make everyone aware that we are set up to see some very explosive upside over the next few weeks, starting Tuesday July 5th. I'm not talking about the usual pop and drop everyone has been conditioned to expect these last 6 months. Rather, at least +50 points of squeeze-the-FUD upside is about to unfold and be realized by the end of July/early August. I have reason to believe, based on the math, that the big money has been carefully setting the stage for this run. The objective is to test their horns... see if they can leverage this negative environment to mark this up and invoke chaos - which they'll use to their advantage to test carryover demand and confirm the overhanging supply has been absorbed as my chart suggests. 2) Present an alt. path to new highs in August 2022. I'm talking MOASS. Without going into detail on the math here, I must admit the setup is both sophisticated and familiar - evidence to the trained eye that bears might be in some serious trouble. Talk is cheap though, I said everything I want to say in the chart, now here is my prediction... I suggest you mark this post in case what I'm indicating does indeed play out, you'll want to know the timeline, roadmap, and time frames to look for: - We will gap up above 384.11 Tuesday morning, 7/5. We won't look back. - We will continue to fill the gap from 396-401, and end next week (7/8) above 404 - We will then have until July 12th to make it over 424.12 for the alt. path to remain on the table... There is something that occurs above 424 (given it is hit by 7/12) that will trigger explosiveness to break above the blue trendline across the higher high we ran into early June? What is that something? It has to do with the determinant of a linear system composed of retracement and extension pairs shifting orientation in space (within the temporal constraints defined by implicit and explicit supply/demand equilibrium points... if you figure it out then you're welcome, you've tasted the forbidden fruit). From here I'll give the conditional expectations: ~ If we clear 424 by 7/12 the next stop will be 463.69 by July 25th, followed by a test of the blue trendline for support, and then if we make above 463-468 by July 25th we will see something that I'd expect to go down in history as the Mother Of Really Even All Squeezed Shorts... Led by GME (no cap)... and resulting in a new All time High sometime in August 2022. If this occurs I expect consolidation at 505, 524, and then the beginning of the true distribution phase around 536 where wave V should complete before we enter the real recession, the real bear market, the real long winter. ~~ If we get rejected at or before 424 and it fails to breach it by 7/12, then we will still likely make one more leg up to the 430s where they will distribute at a much smaller scale before throwing in the towel (for now) and preparing for a Z wave down to around 348.. from there they will devise a successful accumulation scheme to end this wave IV once and for all in September - November 2022. *Note: they already failed once back in March, they failed because it couldn't breach the critical level (at the time) of 468, and then it failed to hold 458, so they had to scramble and distribute down that disgusting Y wave until the overhanging supply was completely absorbed (that intersection of the light purple and light blue trendlines formed back in September/October of 2021 is what I'm referring too - that intersection of the 2 at the end of last week is what I'm seeing as confirmation its been dealt with. Assume they condition their algos to adapt like they condition retail to buy dips and sell pops at the perfectly worse time - an operant response. If you can figure out whats going on in the busy regions then great for you. If not, don't worry, you can FOMO soon like everyone else with or without eyes. Love you too. Heed, XOX Guardian yP.S. we are from the dimension that exists in Y our future, translated in O ur past via R.E.M. within the dimension that exists in Y our present... or did
AMEX:SPYLong
by JerryManders
42
SPX Structure This can be summarized as a distribution at the end of 2021 which produced a corrective markdown (I do not have the EWC labled but this top was a wave III peak). The equilibrium point/level produced from the supply/demand trendlines off the distribution phase is right at the pre-covid peak - which indicates there is support right below the 2022 low. I am expecting that to be the end of wave IV for the following reasons (this implies the bottom is in): A larger accumulation structure has been forming as an inverse head and shoulders. - the left shoulder was formed from minor accumulation in summer 2022 with an equilibrium level in the 3700s - the markup from this did not exhibit in distribution before it got hit to form the head, which indicated significant further downside likely not in the cards or there would have been re-distribution. - head formed in the 3400s near the major late 2021 distribution equilibrium, and there was another round of minor accumulation before the pop in Fall 2022, with an equilibrium level formed in the low 4000s - The most recent selloff came after minor distribution at the EQ level fromed by the head, but did not establish its own specific equilibrium point as a funnel/expanding structure - now we are showing minor accumulation with support exactly at the equilibrium level formed by the left shoulder (as well as support at the late 2021 distribution trendline) Expect markup to begin with a break above ~4100 in 2023 (likely next couple months). Targets are given - end goal is 5000s with a point target of 5300 and possible highs in the 5600s as the wave V completes and they begin true major distribution preceeding the corrective wave after 13 year bull market. Peak will likely be in 2024
SP:SPXLong
by JerryManders
2
Wyckoff simplified + entries & exitsI'm going to explain Wyckoff to you in a simplified manner and show you how you can use it for entries & exits. What is Wyckoff? Large market orders by huge entities come in gradually. If the market only consisted of buying and selling, it would be too easy to make money as it would be too predictable. So instead, orders are injected into the market via an accumulation process (i.e. Wyckoff schematic) Basically, the big players of the market try to take out the retail traders’ stoplosses by injecting orders into the market (to move price toward the stoplosses and hit them). They inject these orders gradually (to avoid being predictable and to trick the retail traders). Basic Wyckoff schematic This is a bearish Wyckoff schematic: Let’s break this down. BC - This stands for Buying Climax. The Buying Climax marks the end of buying and is confirmed by an Automatic Rally. AR - This stands for Automatic Rally. This is when price goes in the opposite direction of the climax. In this case, the AR was to the downside. This confirms that it is the end of buying because it shoots straight down (indicating strong selling pressure). This confirms the Buying Climax by going into the Discount level (bottom 25%) and by being bigger than all the other downward pullbacks which happened before. Test - Price goes close to the Climax point and re-tests it. Then, traders take sells because they think that because of the AR, price would go down. The traders think that price went up for the last time and will finally go down. Because of their sell orders, price falls a little. Purge - The big players try to take out the traders’ sell orders by moving price up to the Climax point. They push price a little higher than the Climax point to take out all the stoplosses. RTO - This stands for Return to Origin. Because of the purge, traders think that price broke structure to the upside. So, they buy which makes price form the RTO. They’re trying to make price revisit the Climax point. Then, price moves lower and they get stopped out again. SOW - This stands for Sign of Weakness. When structure breaks to the downside after the RTO, this shows that selling pressure is coming in. LPS - Last Point of Support. This is the consolidation which must happen before price breaks out of the consolidation to convince you that price is bearish and no longer bullish. Here is how a bullish Wyckoff structure looks like: Let me explain this once more so that you understand it. The main trend was a down trend on the left side of the chart. Then, price had a strong bull move up (the AR) which means that there were buy trades (i.e. Automatic Rally). That confirms that there was a Selling Climax (i.e. SC) and that it’s the end of selling (because if it wasn't the end of selling, the AR wouldn't go so high) After that, price came down to re-test the Selling Climax zone (which is called the Test). Then, traders took a buy because they thought that because of the AR, price would be going up. Then the big players pushed price down a little lower than the Selling Climax to hit the buy orders' stoplosses which forms the Purge. After that, because the Purge happened, it made traders think that price broke structure to the downside which led them to sell. Then, price went down because of those sell orders (forming the RTO) and rejected from the Selling Climax (price went up). Price rejected from that level because there were buy orders from the big players which made price go up. Since price went up, those sell trades got taken out. Because price went up, it formed an SOS (i.e. Sign of Strength). It means that the selling pressure had weakened, and the buying pressure had strengthened. Finally, price formed a consolidation (i.e. LPS) which tricked traders again into thinking that price will go down. The traders sold and the big players pushed prices up to hit their stoplosses one last time. This is a basic Wyckoff pattern in a nutshell. You’ll be more likely to predict the Wyckoff pattern in its later stages when some parts of it have formed. The earlier it is, the riskier it’ll be. Advanced Wyckoff schematic Let’s talk about the 2nd variation of the Wyckoff pattern. This is the same as the basic Wyckoff schematic except that the Test will go beyond the BC/SC. It will look like a purge, but it won’t be. It will be a fake purge. Then, after the Test, the actual Purge will happen. This is to trick most of the Smart Money Concept traders into thinking that the purge has already happened and that price will form an RTO and go lower (in case of a bearish schematic). The traders will then sell. The big players will then push price up to break the Test and form the actual Purge. All the traders will get wiped out because price has hit their stoplosses. In case of a bullish schematic, the traders will think that the purge has already happened and that price will form an RTO and go higher. They’ll buy. The big players will then push price down to form the actual Purge and take out the buy orders. Here is how it looks like: Structures Before I explain how you can use this to trade, let’s first understand market structures. There are 2 types of market structures which I’ll be talking about: Support & Resistance and Supply & Demand. There’s also 1 more thing to understand: ranges. A range is the area between the latest swing high and swing low. 👉 Supply & Demand Structure This is when price forms a new range by forming a new high or a new low. Then, it comes back into the old range. When price comes back into the range, it finds more buy orders to push it up again. When price comes back into the range, it finds more sell orders to push it down again. 👉 Support & Resistance Structure This is the same thing as the Supply and Demand structure except that price will not come back into the range but instead bounce off of the highs/lows. Let’s see how we can use structures with Wyckoff to take entries and exits. We’re first going to use the Supply & Demand structure. Then, we’ll see how we can use the Support & Resistance structure. Supply & Demand Entry We’re going to take entries using the Supply & Demand structure. This strategy uses 2 timeframes to take entries (Macro & Micro). We’re going to look at a buy example. For a sell, simply use the opposite logic. The main idea is to trade with the trend. So, first go to a higher timeframe and find a Supply & Demand structure. Then, look for when price forms a new low/high. We can see that, in this case, price formed the first lower low. Now, we know that because this is a Supply & Demand structure, price will go back up into the range. So, to take advantage of this up move, we can take a buy. We first have to know where to buy. So, go down to a lower timeframe. Then, look for a bullish Wyckoff schematic. Look for the Selling Climax (i.e. SC). This means that it is the end of the downtrend. Then, wait for price to form the AR, Test, Purge and RTO. You can buy when the RTO or LPS happens. You can exit when you see a bearish schematic. This bearish schematic has to reach the Premium level. First, find the Premium level by going back to the higher timeframe and taking the upper 25% of the down leg. Then wait for price to form a bearish schematic and reach that premium level. The Premium level will be reached when price forms a Purge (during a bearish schematic). We can see (in the picture below) that during the bearish schematic, price did Purge and break into the Premium level. Exit your buy here. There’s also another way you can take a trade (look at the picture below). You can sell during the bearish schematic. Sell when you see the RTO or LPS (during the bearish schematic). You can exit at the Purge of the next bullish schematic. It is more preferable to sell than to buy, in this case, because the larger trend on the higher timeframe is a bearish Supply & Demand structure. So, price is going down on the larger trend. When you trade with the trend, the probability of your trade giving profits is higher. This was in case of a sell. If the larger trend was bullish, a buy would’ve been taken at the RTO or LPS of a bullish schematic. Then it can be exited at the Purge of the next bearish schematic. Support & Resistance Entry To trade a Support & Resistance structure, we do the exact same things we did for the Supply and Demand structure. The only difference is that instead of looking for a Purge near the upper 25%/bottom 25%, look for it where price will react (near the red line). After you’ve found it, you can enter your trade when the RTO, SOW or LPS comes. This is in case of a buy. For a sell, use the opposite logic. Like I’ve said before, you can also take a sell to trade with the trend on the higher timeframe. You can sell during the bearish schematic. Sell when you see the RTO or LPS (during the bearish schematic). You can exit at the Purge of the next bullish schematic. If the larger trend was bullish, a buy would’ve been taken at the RTO or LPS of a bullish schematic. Then it can be exited at the Purge of the next bearish schematic. I hope you found this useful!
Education
by SamaaraDas
🔄 BCH: Fractals of Accumulation, Manipulation and DistributionIn the intricate dance of market dynamics, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) appears to be orchestrating a familiar tune, following the classic pattern of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Understanding this cyclical behavior may provide valuable insights for traders navigating the BCH landscape. Chart Analysis: Unraveling the Pattern Accumulation Phase: BCH has entered a phase of accumulation, characterized by sideways movement and the formation of a trading range between $177 and $270. Accumulation suggests the gathering of positions by savvy investors, preparing for a potential upward move. Manipulation Dynamics: Historical patterns indicate that BCH often experiences manipulation after accumulating within a range. Traders should be alert to sudden and unexpected price swings as manipulation unfolds. Distribution Anticipation: Following the manipulation phase, BCH typically enters a distribution phase, where accumulated positions are released. This distribution could lead to a swift decline, potentially revisiting lower support levels. Projected Scenario: A Cautious Path Forward Range Trading: $177 to $270: Traders may anticipate range-bound movements within the $177 to $270 zone as accumulation continues. Establishing strategic positions within this range might be a prudent approach. Manipulation Swings: Be prepared for sudden and sharp price swings, indicating manipulation in progress. Active risk management is crucial during these volatile periods. Downside Potential: $160 Target: In the event of manipulation leading to distribution, a potential downside target is around $160. This level represents a historical support zone that could attract buying interest. Upside Momentum: $370 Objective: Upon completion of the distribution phase, a swift reversal and surge towards $370 may unfold. This upward momentum could signal the start of a new bullish cycle. Strategic Approach: Navigating the BCH Landscape Range Trading Tactics: Traders can capitalize on the range-bound nature of BCH by strategically entering and exiting positions within the $177 to $270 range. Risk Mitigation During Manipulation: In anticipation of manipulation, active risk management, including the use of stop-loss orders, is crucial to safeguarding capital. Long-Term Perspective: Long-term investors may view the accumulation phase as an opportunity to accumulate BCH at favorable prices, anticipating the potential for a significant upward move. Conclusion: BCH's Symphonic Movement As Bitcoin Cash (BCH) dances through its accumulation, manipulation, and distribution phases, traders and investors alike have the opportunity to decipher the symphony of market dynamics. By understanding and strategically responding to these phases, participants can navigate the BCH landscape with greater confidence. 🔄 Accumulation in Progress | 📉 Anticipating Manipulation | 🔄 Distribution Patterns ❗See related ideas below❗ Share your perspectives on Bitcoin Cash's market movements, contributing to a collaborative analysis that enhances the collective understanding of this digital asset. 💚🚀💚
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
🔥 Bitcoin In Wyckoff Distribution: Top Is In?Over the last couple of week's I've been very bullish on the market. My 40.000 thesis for this year is still my personal most likely scenario, but that doesn't mean that we can't look at the market from a more bearish perspective. So, in this analysis I want to take a look at a bearish Bitcoin scenario that might be playing out at the moment. Bitcoin might be trading in a Wyckoff distribution pattern. As seen on the chart, the BC/UT/UTAD are nearly identical as on the schematic. Three higher-highs, of which the first two are sold off quickly, and the last (UTAD) took a while before it turned bearish. AR and SOW are also fairly identical to the schematic. Difference is that we had two retests of the AR-low between UT and UTAD. In the end, the schematic is just a schematic and the market will rarely follow it exactly. I'm interpreting it more as a guideline instead of an exact science. Were this pattern to play out, Bitcoin will likely retest the SOW area in the near future, and likely fall through the SOW support. This would also mean that 38.4k is the 2023 top, with a move towards 30.000$ being fairly likely. Like mentioned before, I'm still bullish on the market. However, it's important to spot bearish signs when they are there. The fact that we had three higher-highs which were all sold off is alarming at the very least. Time will tell if this pattern will play out. For now, keep your eyes open and be watchful. Share your thoughts in the comments, interested to see what the community thinks of this pattern.🙏
Short
by FieryTrading
30