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Wyckoff

Near Term Bitcoin LTF Weakness to Establish HTF TR BottomThe New Year is looking bright for Bitcoin with the most recent report from Franklin Templeton predicting “nations to adopt strategic Bitcoin reserves in 2025.” It should be interesting to see how sustainable it will be for Bitcoin to be a practical method to both store and transfer value, given its TPS limitation as more Nations and Institutions become larger players on the chain. I believe this presents an incredible opportunity for quality POW governance tokens to shine and become a very real complementary alternative. But I digress – what’s up with Big Daddy Bitcoin and the No Santa Rally? On the LTF (1D) Point and Figure, the formation is currently printing a distribution pattern, forming a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) at a local high of $96,000 to retest the prior local high at $95,400 Bitcoin established after moving into Phase D Distribution of the distribution cycle. True to form in Phase D of a Distribution Cycle, the formation printed the preliminary sign of weakness, dropping to the $91,400 handle before the retest. The characteristic of Phase D Distribution is a Major Sign of Weakness occurs at the end of Phase D which “Breaks the Ice” of the lower level of support (in this case $90,800). The horizontal price count suggests a potential near-term fall from the current level to the $$86,600 region from a Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), before a relief rally to “Return to Ice” and subsequent Preliminary Support (PS) and Selling Climax (SC) are established. The positive take should be on the Higher Time Frame (HTF), this PA is all about establishing the bottom of the new Trade Range, which has recently established the $108,300 handle at the upper limit of this Trade Range. Consolidation within this range should happen for a bit to establish both future direction and build cause within the formation to build potential (much like coiling a spring) for the next move. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
PIKK 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level ? (new spread) + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction - SOS level above JOC + support level + volumed Sp + weak test" Monthly context "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + biggest volume 2Sp+ in 4d" Yearly context "- no trend - context direction short"
RUS:PIKKLong
by MishaSuvorov
ALRS 1D Long Investment Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test + first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit 1/3 - 1 to 2 R/R 1/3 - 1D T2 / 1M T2 1/3 - 1/2 of 1Y Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit 1/3 - 1 to 2 R/R 1/3 - 1D T2 / 1M T2 1/3 - 1/2 of 1Y Monthly CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + volumed Sp + test" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level + manipulation"
RUS:ALRSLong
by MishaSuvorov
SMLT 1H Swing Long Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse - unvolumed T1 + support level + volumed 2Sp+ + weak test + biggest volume first buying bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + support level + biggest volume manipulation" Yearly trend "+ T1 level + support level + biggest volume manipulation?"
RUS:SMLTLong
by MishaSuvorov
LLY 1H Swing Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade - short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test + first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction - expanding T2 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level - biggest volume manipulation" Yearly Context "+ long impulse - neutral zone"
NYSE:LLYLong
by MishaSuvorov
AFKS Swing 1H Long Conservative CounterTrend TradeConservative CounterTrend Trade + long balance + 1/2 correction + volumed ICE level + support level + biggest volume 2Sp- + weak test - above first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Context "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 level + volumed manipulation + support level" Monthly Context "- short impulse + biggest volume T1 level - below 1/2 correction + support level - one bar reversal?!" Yearly Context "- short impulse - neutral zone"
RUS:AFKS
by MishaSuvorov
GBP/USD Sells from 1.2700 back downThis week, I expect GBP/USD to continue its downtrend, following a clear change in character and a break of structure on the higher timeframe, signaling bearish momentum. My primary plan is to wait for a retest of the 2-hour supply zone, located above the Asia high. Once the Asia high is taken, I’ll look for confluences to execute potential sell trades. If the 2-hour supply zone fails to hold, I’ll shift my focus to the 10-hour supply zone, which represents a significant structural point. Should price distribute in this area, I’ll look for major sells to align with the prevailing bearish trend. Confluences for GBP/USD Sells: - Liquidity Below: There’s substantial liquidity to the downside waiting to be taken. - Bearish Momentum: The pair has been bearish over the past two weeks. - Break of Structure: Price has broken key levels to the downside on the higher timeframe. - DXY Correlation: The dollar index (DXY) is aligning with this bearish setup. - Key Supply Zone: A well-defined supply zone caused the initial downside move. Note: As price approaches the 8-hour demand zone, I’ll also consider any long opportunities to take price up to the supply zone for a countertrend move, rather than waiting for bearish setups exclusively.
Short
by Hassan_fx
BTC 1h updateAt 9 AM on December 13, the market established a balance. I'm anticipating the price to approach the resistance level at 100,480. At this point, we might experience either a false breakout or a genuine breakout. If a reliable upthrust occurs, it could present a favorable entry opportunity on the 5-minute chart. It's important to note that a spring pattern formed at the support level at 9 AM. Additionally, selling volume has been slightly lower than buying volume, and the approach to resistance has shown moderate strength. Let's remain patient and observe how the situation unfolds.
Short
by MrXade
Understanding Wyckoff Reaccumulation: A Comprehensive Guide## Introduction to Wyckoff Theory Richard Wyckoff developed his methodology in the early 20th century, creating a systematic approach to market analysis that remains relevant today. His method is based on the principle that market movements are primarily driven by large institutional investors, whom he called "composite operators." ## The Concept of Reaccumulation Reaccumulation is a sideways price pattern that occurs during an ongoing uptrend. Unlike basic accumulation, which occurs at market bottoms, reaccumulation represents a pause in an existing upward trend where institutional investors reload their positions before continuing higher. ### Key Characteristics of Reaccumulation 1. **Prior Uptrend**: Reaccumulation always follows a significant price advance 2. **Trading Range**: Price enters a sideways consolidation period 3. **Volume Analysis**: Typically shows declining volume during the range 4. **Price Structure**: Forms a series of higher lows and lower highs within the range ## Phases of Reaccumulation ### Phase A - Preliminary Support (PS) - Marks the initial support level where the uptrend first pauses - Often accompanied by increased volume - Creates the trading range's support level ### Phase B - Secondary Test (ST) - Price tests the trading range's support - Usually shows decreasing volume - May form several tests of support with springs or upthrusts ### Phase C - Last Point of Support (LPS) - Final test of support before markup - Often shows diminishing volume - Can include a spring below support ### Phase D - Sign of Strength (SOS) - Strong price move up on increased volume - Breaks above local resistance levels - Confirms the reaccumulation structure ### Phase E - Last Point of Supply (LPSY) - Final pullback before sustained markup - Generally shows lower volume than SOS - Creates higher low compared to LPS ## Identifying Reaccumulation vs. Distribution Understanding whether a trading range is reaccumulation or distribution is crucial for traders. Key differences include: ### Reaccumulation Characteristics: - Forms after an uptrend - Shows stronger support than resistance - Springs more common than upthrusts - Volume increases on upward price moves ### Distribution Characteristics: - Forms after an uptrend - Shows stronger resistance than support - Upthrusts more common than springs - Volume increases on downward price moves ## Volume Analysis in Reaccumulation Volume plays a crucial role in confirming reaccumulation patterns: - Decreasing volume during consolidation - Higher volume on tests of support - Strongest volume on breakouts above resistance - Low volume on pullbacks after breakout ## Trading Reaccumulation Patterns ### Entry Strategies: 1. **Spring Entry**: Enter after a spring below support with volume confirmation 2. **SOS Entry**: Enter on the break above resistance with increasing volume 3. **LPSY Entry**: Enter on the last pullback before markup ### Stop Loss Placement: - Below the spring low - Below the last point of support - Below the trading range support ### Target Setting: - Measure the height of the trading range - Project this distance from the breakout point - Consider previous resistance levels ## Case Study Analysis Examining the provided chart, we can identify several key Wyckoff elements: - Initial trading range establishment after uptrend - Multiple tests of support with declining volume - Formation of higher lows within the range - Strong volume on breakout moves - Successful continuation of the uptrend ## Common Mistakes to Avoid 1. Misidentifying the larger trend context 2. Ignoring volume confirmation 3. Taking premature positions before pattern completion 4. Missing important support/resistance levels 5. Failing to consider market context ## Conclusion Wyckoff reaccumulation patterns provide valuable insights into institutional behavior during uptrends. By understanding these patterns, traders can better position themselves to profit from continuation moves while managing risk effectively. Remember that successful trading requires patience, practice, and proper integration of multiple technical analysis tools alongside Wyckoff methodology. Remember: All technical analysis methods, including Wyckoff theory, should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes proper risk management and consideration of multiple timeframes and market contexts.
Education
by javaman1376