BTC | Testing ATH — Breakout or Trap?Daily close just under ATH at 109,609
We had only 1H confirmation above ATH, with the first 4H close above ATH likely in 30 minutes. The breakout volume is well above average (Volume MA: 172.89k), but daily candle still below resistance.
This could be:
• A Sign of Strength (SOS) transitioning into Phase E markup,
• Or a premature breakout without higher timeframe validation.
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Breakout Validation Checklist:
1. 1H Close Above ATH (~110k) ✅
▸ Initial signal confirmed, but not sufficient alone.
2. 4H Close Above ATH (Pending ~30 mins)
▸ Must close above 110k, with no strong upper wick.
▸ Confirms intermediate-term strength.
3. Daily Close ≥ 110k
▸ Still missing. Required for macro breakout confirmation.
▸ Watch for candle body, not just wick.
4. Throwback & Support Hold at 109.6–110k
▸ Ideally after 4H confirmation, a retest and bounce = textbook
SOS → BU → Markup pattern.
5. Invalidation Risks:
▸ Daily close <109k with high volume
▸ RSI divergence on 4H
▸ Rejection from 114k–116k Fib cluster
▸ Large bearish engulfing below ATH
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Wyckoff Context:
We’re likely in Re-Accumulation Phase D, testing the breakout.
No signs of UTAD or distribution — but low conviction breakouts at ATH are known trap zones.
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What’s Next?
If 4H + Daily confirm, momentum may push toward:
• TP1: 114,449 (Fib 0.618)
• TP2: 116,199 (Measured move)
• TP3: 118,237 (Upper Fib extension)
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Follow for real-time BTC setups based on structure, RSI, and volume — no hopium.
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