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Wyckoff

SPX Structure This can be summarized as a distribution at the end of 2021 which produced a corrective markdown (I do not have the EWC labled but this top was a wave III peak). The equilibrium point/level produced from the supply/demand trendlines off the distribution phase is right at the pre-covid peak - which indicates there is support right below the 2022 low. I am expecting that to be the end of wave IV for the following reasons (this implies the bottom is in): A larger accumulation structure has been forming as an inverse head and shoulders. - the left shoulder was formed from minor accumulation in summer 2022 with an equilibrium level in the 3700s - the markup from this did not exhibit in distribution before it got hit to form the head, which indicated significant further downside likely not in the cards or there would have been re-distribution. - head formed in the 3400s near the major late 2021 distribution equilibrium, and there was another round of minor accumulation before the pop in Fall 2022, with an equilibrium level formed in the low 4000s - The most recent selloff came after minor distribution at the EQ level fromed by the head, but did not establish its own specific equilibrium point as a funnel/expanding structure - now we are showing minor accumulation with support exactly at the equilibrium level formed by the left shoulder (as well as support at the late 2021 distribution trendline) Expect markup to begin with a break above ~4100 in 2023 (likely next couple months). Targets are given - end goal is 5000s with a point target of 5300 and possible highs in the 5600s as the wave V completes and they begin true major distribution preceeding the corrective wave after 13 year bull market. Peak will likely be in 2024
SP:SPXLong
by JerryManders
2
Wyckoff simplified + entries & exitsI'm going to explain Wyckoff to you in a simplified manner and show you how you can use it for entries & exits. What is Wyckoff? Large market orders by huge entities come in gradually. If the market only consisted of buying and selling, it would be too easy to make money as it would be too predictable. So instead, orders are injected into the market via an accumulation process (i.e. Wyckoff schematic) Basically, the big players of the market try to take out the retail traders’ stoplosses by injecting orders into the market (to move price toward the stoplosses and hit them). They inject these orders gradually (to avoid being predictable and to trick the retail traders). Basic Wyckoff schematic This is a bearish Wyckoff schematic: Let’s break this down. BC - This stands for Buying Climax. The Buying Climax marks the end of buying and is confirmed by an Automatic Rally. AR - This stands for Automatic Rally. This is when price goes in the opposite direction of the climax. In this case, the AR was to the downside. This confirms that it is the end of buying because it shoots straight down (indicating strong selling pressure). This confirms the Buying Climax by going into the Discount level (bottom 25%) and by being bigger than all the other downward pullbacks which happened before. Test - Price goes close to the Climax point and re-tests it. Then, traders take sells because they think that because of the AR, price would go down. The traders think that price went up for the last time and will finally go down. Because of their sell orders, price falls a little. Purge - The big players try to take out the traders’ sell orders by moving price up to the Climax point. They push price a little higher than the Climax point to take out all the stoplosses. RTO - This stands for Return to Origin. Because of the purge, traders think that price broke structure to the upside. So, they buy which makes price form the RTO. They’re trying to make price revisit the Climax point. Then, price moves lower and they get stopped out again. SOW - This stands for Sign of Weakness. When structure breaks to the downside after the RTO, this shows that selling pressure is coming in. LPS - Last Point of Support. This is the consolidation which must happen before price breaks out of the consolidation to convince you that price is bearish and no longer bullish. Here is how a bullish Wyckoff structure looks like: Let me explain this once more so that you understand it. The main trend was a down trend on the left side of the chart. Then, price had a strong bull move up (the AR) which means that there were buy trades (i.e. Automatic Rally). That confirms that there was a Selling Climax (i.e. SC) and that it’s the end of selling (because if it wasn't the end of selling, the AR wouldn't go so high) After that, price came down to re-test the Selling Climax zone (which is called the Test). Then, traders took a buy because they thought that because of the AR, price would be going up. Then the big players pushed price down a little lower than the Selling Climax to hit the buy orders' stoplosses which forms the Purge. After that, because the Purge happened, it made traders think that price broke structure to the downside which led them to sell. Then, price went down because of those sell orders (forming the RTO) and rejected from the Selling Climax (price went up). Price rejected from that level because there were buy orders from the big players which made price go up. Since price went up, those sell trades got taken out. Because price went up, it formed an SOS (i.e. Sign of Strength). It means that the selling pressure had weakened, and the buying pressure had strengthened. Finally, price formed a consolidation (i.e. LPS) which tricked traders again into thinking that price will go down. The traders sold and the big players pushed prices up to hit their stoplosses one last time. This is a basic Wyckoff pattern in a nutshell. You’ll be more likely to predict the Wyckoff pattern in its later stages when some parts of it have formed. The earlier it is, the riskier it’ll be. Advanced Wyckoff schematic Let’s talk about the 2nd variation of the Wyckoff pattern. This is the same as the basic Wyckoff schematic except that the Test will go beyond the BC/SC. It will look like a purge, but it won’t be. It will be a fake purge. Then, after the Test, the actual Purge will happen. This is to trick most of the Smart Money Concept traders into thinking that the purge has already happened and that price will form an RTO and go lower (in case of a bearish schematic). The traders will then sell. The big players will then push price up to break the Test and form the actual Purge. All the traders will get wiped out because price has hit their stoplosses. In case of a bullish schematic, the traders will think that the purge has already happened and that price will form an RTO and go higher. They’ll buy. The big players will then push price down to form the actual Purge and take out the buy orders. Here is how it looks like: Structures Before I explain how you can use this to trade, let’s first understand market structures. There are 2 types of market structures which I’ll be talking about: Support & Resistance and Supply & Demand. There’s also 1 more thing to understand: ranges. A range is the area between the latest swing high and swing low. 👉 Supply & Demand Structure This is when price forms a new range by forming a new high or a new low. Then, it comes back into the old range. When price comes back into the range, it finds more buy orders to push it up again. When price comes back into the range, it finds more sell orders to push it down again. 👉 Support & Resistance Structure This is the same thing as the Supply and Demand structure except that price will not come back into the range but instead bounce off of the highs/lows. Let’s see how we can use structures with Wyckoff to take entries and exits. We’re first going to use the Supply & Demand structure. Then, we’ll see how we can use the Support & Resistance structure. Supply & Demand Entry We’re going to take entries using the Supply & Demand structure. This strategy uses 2 timeframes to take entries (Macro & Micro). We’re going to look at a buy example. For a sell, simply use the opposite logic. The main idea is to trade with the trend. So, first go to a higher timeframe and find a Supply & Demand structure. Then, look for when price forms a new low/high. We can see that, in this case, price formed the first lower low. Now, we know that because this is a Supply & Demand structure, price will go back up into the range. So, to take advantage of this up move, we can take a buy. We first have to know where to buy. So, go down to a lower timeframe. Then, look for a bullish Wyckoff schematic. Look for the Selling Climax (i.e. SC). This means that it is the end of the downtrend. Then, wait for price to form the AR, Test, Purge and RTO. You can buy when the RTO or LPS happens. You can exit when you see a bearish schematic. This bearish schematic has to reach the Premium level. First, find the Premium level by going back to the higher timeframe and taking the upper 25% of the down leg. Then wait for price to form a bearish schematic and reach that premium level. The Premium level will be reached when price forms a Purge (during a bearish schematic). We can see (in the picture below) that during the bearish schematic, price did Purge and break into the Premium level. Exit your buy here. There’s also another way you can take a trade (look at the picture below). You can sell during the bearish schematic. Sell when you see the RTO or LPS (during the bearish schematic). You can exit at the Purge of the next bullish schematic. It is more preferable to sell than to buy, in this case, because the larger trend on the higher timeframe is a bearish Supply & Demand structure. So, price is going down on the larger trend. When you trade with the trend, the probability of your trade giving profits is higher. This was in case of a sell. If the larger trend was bullish, a buy would’ve been taken at the RTO or LPS of a bullish schematic. Then it can be exited at the Purge of the next bearish schematic. Support & Resistance Entry To trade a Support & Resistance structure, we do the exact same things we did for the Supply and Demand structure. The only difference is that instead of looking for a Purge near the upper 25%/bottom 25%, look for it where price will react (near the red line). After you’ve found it, you can enter your trade when the RTO, SOW or LPS comes. This is in case of a buy. For a sell, use the opposite logic. Like I’ve said before, you can also take a sell to trade with the trend on the higher timeframe. You can sell during the bearish schematic. Sell when you see the RTO or LPS (during the bearish schematic). You can exit at the Purge of the next bullish schematic. If the larger trend was bullish, a buy would’ve been taken at the RTO or LPS of a bullish schematic. Then it can be exited at the Purge of the next bearish schematic. I hope you found this useful!
Education
by SamaaraDas
🔄 BCH: Fractals of Accumulation, Manipulation and DistributionIn the intricate dance of market dynamics, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) appears to be orchestrating a familiar tune, following the classic pattern of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Understanding this cyclical behavior may provide valuable insights for traders navigating the BCH landscape. Chart Analysis: Unraveling the Pattern Accumulation Phase: BCH has entered a phase of accumulation, characterized by sideways movement and the formation of a trading range between $177 and $270. Accumulation suggests the gathering of positions by savvy investors, preparing for a potential upward move. Manipulation Dynamics: Historical patterns indicate that BCH often experiences manipulation after accumulating within a range. Traders should be alert to sudden and unexpected price swings as manipulation unfolds. Distribution Anticipation: Following the manipulation phase, BCH typically enters a distribution phase, where accumulated positions are released. This distribution could lead to a swift decline, potentially revisiting lower support levels. Projected Scenario: A Cautious Path Forward Range Trading: $177 to $270: Traders may anticipate range-bound movements within the $177 to $270 zone as accumulation continues. Establishing strategic positions within this range might be a prudent approach. Manipulation Swings: Be prepared for sudden and sharp price swings, indicating manipulation in progress. Active risk management is crucial during these volatile periods. Downside Potential: $160 Target: In the event of manipulation leading to distribution, a potential downside target is around $160. This level represents a historical support zone that could attract buying interest. Upside Momentum: $370 Objective: Upon completion of the distribution phase, a swift reversal and surge towards $370 may unfold. This upward momentum could signal the start of a new bullish cycle. Strategic Approach: Navigating the BCH Landscape Range Trading Tactics: Traders can capitalize on the range-bound nature of BCH by strategically entering and exiting positions within the $177 to $270 range. Risk Mitigation During Manipulation: In anticipation of manipulation, active risk management, including the use of stop-loss orders, is crucial to safeguarding capital. Long-Term Perspective: Long-term investors may view the accumulation phase as an opportunity to accumulate BCH at favorable prices, anticipating the potential for a significant upward move. Conclusion: BCH's Symphonic Movement As Bitcoin Cash (BCH) dances through its accumulation, manipulation, and distribution phases, traders and investors alike have the opportunity to decipher the symphony of market dynamics. By understanding and strategically responding to these phases, participants can navigate the BCH landscape with greater confidence. 🔄 Accumulation in Progress | 📉 Anticipating Manipulation | 🔄 Distribution Patterns ❗See related ideas below❗ Share your perspectives on Bitcoin Cash's market movements, contributing to a collaborative analysis that enhances the collective understanding of this digital asset. 💚🚀💚
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
🔥 Bitcoin In Wyckoff Distribution: Top Is In?Over the last couple of week's I've been very bullish on the market. My 40.000 thesis for this year is still my personal most likely scenario, but that doesn't mean that we can't look at the market from a more bearish perspective. So, in this analysis I want to take a look at a bearish Bitcoin scenario that might be playing out at the moment. Bitcoin might be trading in a Wyckoff distribution pattern. As seen on the chart, the BC/UT/UTAD are nearly identical as on the schematic. Three higher-highs, of which the first two are sold off quickly, and the last (UTAD) took a while before it turned bearish. AR and SOW are also fairly identical to the schematic. Difference is that we had two retests of the AR-low between UT and UTAD. In the end, the schematic is just a schematic and the market will rarely follow it exactly. I'm interpreting it more as a guideline instead of an exact science. Were this pattern to play out, Bitcoin will likely retest the SOW area in the near future, and likely fall through the SOW support. This would also mean that 38.4k is the 2023 top, with a move towards 30.000$ being fairly likely. Like mentioned before, I'm still bullish on the market. However, it's important to spot bearish signs when they are there. The fact that we had three higher-highs which were all sold off is alarming at the very least. Time will tell if this pattern will play out. For now, keep your eyes open and be watchful. Share your thoughts in the comments, interested to see what the community thinks of this pattern.🙏
Short
by FieryTrading
30
Wyckoff DistributionMy assessment of the current consolidation pattern for the S&P 500. 15 minute chart so just under the limit for publication so this will pan out fast. Buying climax occurring on higher volume and subsequent rallies on lower volume. UTAD is testing demand and looks like there was a wide range price bar with low volume which may be signaling that demand is weakening. If price reaches lower support lines then higher probability price will continue to go down. If price breaks above resistance then likely see another peak rally. Wave count looks a little off and UTAD may just be a wave 3 peak. Will know soon though with the short time frame evaluated.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HedgehogLanding
GBPUSD Shorts - A grade setup blueprintThis is how I would execute my trades after I analyse on the higher time frames to give me the perfect A grade setup that I go for once price enters my POI. On Sunday I posted a GBPUSD break down of price reacting off the 6hr supply, I mentioned that sells could possibly play out on a Monday which it did, so now I'm going to show you guys how my confluences generates an edge for me to execute these trades. Firstly once price mitigates my 6hr Supply zone I would monitor price and wait for the asian high to get swept first before I validate a potential sell. Then I would wait for a clean CHOCH on the 10 or 15min to validate my UTAD (upthrust after distribution.) Once a CHOCH is formed it would typically leave a last point of supply (LPS), that will have a clean unmitigated order block that would have caused the expansion to happen. If it leaves an imbalance during this process it's usually a very good sign that price should come and retrace back to the LPS. After I have my OB marked out I would set my sell limit In which I would then wait for price to come back and tap me in. From this point I would have already have pre defined my risk, written the confluences and set a take profit target for my trade to hit (in this case we will be targeting the touch of the 4hr imbalance as that acts as a magnet for price to come towards.) In this specific scenario as you can see price didn't come back to the original 10min OB I had marked out. Price then decided to create a small BOS to the downside leaving another LPS for me to enter from which was the 6min OB. From there price came back to tap that 6min OB and literally melted towards our take profit target for a 1:15 RR with minimal drawdown. P.S. when price entered my POI I would make sure that majority of the reversal magnets are eliminated i.e. any trendline liquidity, equal highs/lows, and asian highs/lows, so that price can move swiftly in our desired direction. Hope you guys found this post insightful! as I wanted to show how I would typically execute my trading strategy using Wyckoff to catch big RR moves that enter my Higher time frame POI's.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS VIEW OF BITCOIN 6/11: WAITING FOR THE FALL!Hello traders! In the past 2 weeks, Bitcoin price tried to test the 36000 price range and accumulated in the 33000 to 36000 range until now. Last weekend we also witnessed the action of whales transferring a large amount of Bitcoin to the exchange, which signals that there will be large price fluctuations in the coming weeks, most likely a profit-taking action by traders. big. Next week we also look forward to the speech of Fed Chairman Powell and other members. Most likely, combining the above two events, Bitcoin price will adjust sharply to have notable price actions before entering the last month of the year. Let's come to some technical analysis comments according to Wyckoff on the BTCUSDT pair on November 6: Timeframe H1 (BTCUSDT pair chart on Binance): Figure 1: Now is the time to wait for Bitcoin's collapse (source: Tradingview) Events that took place during the distribution phase: - Price has completed forming phases A, B, C and is in phase D of the distribution phase according to the Wyckoff model. - In phase D, the price retested the upper edge of the trading range with 2 LPSY events. Prices increased but volume decreased, demonstrating the weakness of demand. Now, as long as the big guys or the bears are determined to step down, the price will drop sharply. - Possible plan: continue to sell more immediately after the price tests the upper boundary of the trading range or create new LPSYs. Wait for the price to break the lower boundary of the trading range to create the final SOW in phase D, then you can completely close out the position and pull the stop loss of the remaining positions to the entry point, while preserving the positions. Just continue to wait for the following declines to take more profits. Safe trading! @dvd
Short
by saitama5ever
LONG WAY TO PARADISEWell, I wish that I could tell you it was easy, Just take the paved road right to paradise But the truth is my friend, the pain and suffering never ends Make amends with medicine, amnesia, and lies The grains sift coarsely through the hour glass And they pound like boulders on the brain All those things you did for fun, Never hurting anyone, Careless shadows in the sun, just empty and lame And it's no, it's no use thinking that you're wrong The past is old and gone It's best to move along and find your Avalon...
CRYPTO:EGLDUSD
by CryptoPummel
1
BTCUSDT Analysis_IS THE BITCOIN ETF EXCITEMENT OVER?Hello traders! As of the October 31 analysis, Bitcoin is still in the distribution zone and is in phase B of the distribution phase according to Wyckoff. The event that the FED kept interest rates unchanged did not create any significant boost but created an important price action for Bitcoin during this period. Excitement over Bitcoin ETF news is over. “Buy rumors, sell news” has happened. Let's come to some technical analysis comments according to Wyckoff on the BTCUSDT pair on November 2: Timeframe H1 (BTCUSDT pair chart on Binance): Figure 1: Bitcoin price has moved into phase C of the distribution phase (source: Tradingview) Events that took place during the distribution phase: - As analyzed on October 31, the price has gone through the events in phase A and is in phase B of the distribution period. - The creation of UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) marked the official formation of phase C. This event was caused by the big guys wanting to check if the demand was still large. And the truth is that all the demand was absorbed, the price shot up to touch 36,000 and then quickly returned to the trading range confirmed for this event. - The possible upcoming scenario is to wait for the price to form LPSY (Last point of supply) events. There the supply zone is weak: prices increase weakly with low volume. LPSY positions are suitable for opening additional short positions. - If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the trading range, the final SOW event will occur. Safe trading! @DVD
Short
by saitama5ever
2
BTCUSDT Analysis_Buy the rumor, Sell the truthHello traders, here is the DVD! Last week saw a strong increase in price of not only Bitcoin but also the crypto market in general. The bullish story stems from market-wide excitement about Bitcoin ETFs soon receiving approval from the SEC. There are many big players in the financial industry who have applied for approval to the SEC such as: Blackrock, Grayscale,... So if at least one BTC ETF is approved, large institutional cash flow will pour in hundreds of billions, even venting trillions of dollars into the crypto market. With such extreme mania, Bitcoin and the entire market have increased in price regardless, and many people have thought that the cryptocurrency winter is over and spring has returned. However, let's sit down and review whether the above is correct: - The FED and major central banks have not yet started the monetary easing cycle. This is the key point, because the era of cheap money has not yet come. Until there is a firm "dove" monetary policy from the FED, Bitcoin and crypto or any other risky assets cannot have a miraculous increase. - Up until now, all the news from the press that made the news last week was still just rumors about the approval of Bitcoin ETF funds. All current buying is based on rumors. Once the truth is exposed like Bitcoin ETF will not be approved or the approval process takes a long time, then the act of selling the truth will take place. Let's come to some technical analysis comments according to Wyckoff on the BTCUSDT pair on October 31: Events that took place during the distribution phase: - At 5:00 a.m. on October 23, a candle had strong buying pressure (price increased rapidly and volume spiked) and pulled down but still closed over 50% of the candle, creating PSY (Preliminary Supply). - Next, at 9:00 a.m. on October 24, the buyers continued to frantically buy more in a hurry. It was also the time when news broke that Bitcoin ETFs were about to be approved. This is when the big guys gradually take profits from the amount of goods they have previously stored. We have point BC (Buying Climax) as shown on the graph. - Because the supply from the big guy is very large, after point BC, naturally we have a rebound in price, which means the big guy can close out a quantity of goods in this segment. That creates AR (automatic reaction). - The price returned to the supply and demand zone BC to retest this zone, 2 withdrawal candles along with a decrease in volume compared to the previous points PSY, BC and AR confirmed: supply is greater than demand. to is gradually dominating and closing their sales volume. Because if there is still a lot of demand, the price increase combined with large volume must be enough to break through resistance BC. At the end of the first ST generation, phase A of the accumulation phase has formed. Trading range is made up of AR support and BC resistance. - Entering phase B, the big guy showed off his abundant supply with a strong downward candle that retested AR support, the large volume here showed this, creating a SOW (Sign of weakness). ). - Continuing in the following hours, the price moves inside the trading range so that the big guys gradually distribute all the goods. Events that may occur in the near future and guide trading: - Phase B has been taking place. However, the UT (Upthrust) event has not yet occurred: the price broke through the BC resistance and quickly closed back to the trading range with large volume. - The most feasible plan right now is to wait for the UT event to take place and sell short. The main entry point is the closing price of the candle confirming the completion of the UT, the stop loss point is above the top of the UT, the take profit point is AR support. Let's wait and see if Bitcoin's upcoming actions reflect the true idiom: "Buy the rumor, sell the truth". Safe trading! DVD
Short
by saitama5ever
BTC Breaks Out from 200 Days Range Bitcoin has been on quite a journey, spending over 200 days locked in a range-bound pattern. But, as the saying goes, "good things come to those who wait." Bitcoin has finally made a breakout move to the upside, and it's got its sights set on an ambitious target of $40,000. However, it's essential to recognize that it will likely need some time for reaccumulation before testing the range once more and forging ahead. 📈🎯 Breaking Free from the Range: Look closer how this reaccumulation looks at 1H time-frame : We are always moving from one liquidity to another For what felt like an eternity, Bitcoin has been trading within a range, caught between certain price levels. But now, it has broken free, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, and its upward journey has begun. 🌅🚀 The Reaccumulation Phase: After such a substantial breakout, it's only natural that Bitcoin would want to take a breath and reaccumulate its strength. This period of consolidation is essential to fortify the newfound levels and gather momentum for the next phase. ⏳🔍 Retesting the Range: Before aiming for the ambitious $40,000 target, Bitcoin is likely to revisit the range it spent so long in. This retest will serve as a confirmation of the new support levels and ensure the foundation is solid for further upward movement. 🔄💪 Trading Strategy: Observation: Keep a close eye on Bitcoin's price action and how it interacts with the former range boundaries. Patience: Be prepared for a period of reaccumulation and consolidation. It's during these times that savvy traders position themselves for the next leg up. Risk Management: Maintain sound risk management practices, especially when dealing with a market as dynamic as Bitcoin. Conclusion: Bitcoin's breakout from its long-standing range is an exciting development. However, it's crucial to remain patient and adaptable. The cryptocurrency market can be both exhilarating and unpredictable, so it's essential to be ready for a range retest and subsequent movements. As Bitcoin sets its sights on $40,000, make sure you stay informed, exercise caution, and be prepared for the journey ahead. ❗️Get my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! Link below🔑
by AlexWhale