Wyckoff
Volume chart BTC 05/11/2020-01/11/2022This chart show the wake top BTC made late 2021 and early Summer (69k$-64.8k$).
I have the belief that BTC top on Friday the 08/01/2021 at a round price of 41950$.
This in is line with GBTC start the continued selling of there BTC supply.
The time in between 08/01/2021 and the most recent bottom of 17622$ on the 18/06/2022.
Has bin an inverted bear market. This because of the famous market patterns BTC/USDT formed in this period.
Being a Wyckoff Market Cycle.
Forming a quad top from 02/2021-06/2021 and a double top in 11/2021 above the 41950$ markt top.
Following a cycle of downside from 26/11/2021 to the end for the trend 18/06/2022.
Leave a comment down below with thoughts if you have questions about this Wyckoff market Cycle.
After the worldwide panic that was this downside cycle BTC top again at 25211$.
Just above what is now a volume RES zone range of 45% of all volume that happened since the 05/11/2021 14093$
The zone 45% range low is 18393$ and mid range is 19.2k$.
Any price action below the mid range or range low should be a instant BUY for the next 3-5 year.
Targeting 100k$+ / 332k$ (--->1m$+)
If this LVL is broken again for a longer time I see the 15k$-14k$ range come in to play
And because of recent high relative volume coming mainly from the US zone and EURO zone.
Can result in mass panic!!! And a likely V shape bounce.
Think 03/2020 or 11/2018-05/2019.
PLS NOTE:
At last this is post is the result of a 4 HOUR NIGHT of thinking AND IS NOT ADVICE.
ONLY TO BE USED as new way of thinking about BTC and current life.
With 1,75 year experience 05/2021 to my name as of writing this.
🔥 Bitcoin In Wyckoff Distribution: Is This The Top?Bitcoin has been trading sideways for the better part of two weeks now. Yesterday, there was a short-lived break out through the FOMC resistance, which got sadly sold off quickly.
Since the break out was only minor & short-lived, there's a probability that we're currently trading in a Wyckoff distribution pattern, which could signal that this is area is the Bitcoin top for the foreseeable future. Check out the theoretical schematic below.
If we'd follow this Wyckoff distribution pattern, that would indicate that there's still one more move up before the real sell-off. As long as the price does not break below the AR-support (purple) before breaking above the UT-resistance (yellow), this pattern is valid. Furthermore, the UTAD break out can't reach much higher than the UT top ($30k?) before being sold off.
Consequently, the UTAD top would be in an area of heavy resistance from the last two years of trading, see yellow area below.
Do you think we're in a Wyckoff distribution pattern? Are we breaking down? Share your thoughts below.
Note: I'm still bullish on BTC, especially in the long-term. However, I think it's valuable to look at different perspectives of the market, even if it goes against my bias.
Wyckoff distribution eventAfter failled attempt to break down form support (26 700), Btc is testing highs, again. In case we will fail breaking the resistance to the upside there is potential for distribution event. Also the RSI showing us bearish divergence on many timeframes. On the other hand we are in strong uptrend for last monthes and there is possibility for testing the 30k level. So setup your SL on top of the potential SFP. Be patient and wait for Swing failure pattern.
Good luck.
GBPJPY Buy Idea** BEFORE I BEGIN, ALLOW ME TO APOLOGIZE FOR ERASING MOST OF MY DRAWING. I know it would have been more beneficial to leave it but I'll leave it from here on. **
So for this one, I started on the monthly and worked my way down until I could find a nice entry point. On the monthly, I noticed structure and marked off the closest SD zones in relation to the current price. From there I went down to the weekly and daily looking for zones inside of zones.
Once on the daily, I noticed a re-accumulation schematic and dropped to the 4 hour where I was able to find the POI for entry once structure was broken. Now it just a waiting game for price to come back to my entry point.
#Ethereum - thoughts out loud #8]Good evening, we are from Ukraine!
Continuation of the movement.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success.
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #06Good evening, we are from Ukraine!
Extension of the agreement. The action plan remains unchanged. A mistake made by UT without confirmation.
Restart. The targets are unchanged.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success.
Sometimes you win/sometimes you learn.
#Bitcoin
EGLDBTC: Re-accumulation or Distribution?I have been looking at patterns for re-accumulation for a while for $EGLDUSDT, but it is actually when looking at EGLDBTC when it could really fit with the traditional patterns. As we know, both wyckoff patterns are exactly similar at the beginning, and it is difficult to find out which one could be playing out, if any.
It is difficult to imagine that EGLD goes as far as to overcome previous top, right? But we all thought the same when it did the previous top :) The number of features that MULTIVERSX has created recently is impressive, and it really depends on the discussion that is happening today of having or not an ALTCOIN SEASON coming soon or not.
What do you think?
XAUUSD Gold Analysis, 2hFor the short term, I think this is the way to go.
Gold Spot (XAUUSD) is forming a Wyckoff pattern in 2h time frame and this sketch is my opinion.
I haven't any exact target but you can take a short position on the third top (~2000$) with high risk, or after breaking the bottom after the pullback with low risk. Also, make sure to set StopLoss.
But, as always, not financial advice.
The spring is over! accumulation for BTCMy previous idea got rejected, we have now a clear situation of accumulation schematics and the SPRING has already passed! We are in Sign of Strengh (SOS) in Phase D now. Thinking of opening long position at around 25K, with targets at 29K, 34.8K and 37.5K (40%-50% up!)
USDJPY accumulation in a trading rangeWe may have seen a low volume spring on the USDJPY today too.
If you had the capital and the tolerance for holding risk over the weekend, this may be the trade for you.
However, if this is an accumulation phase, this is the start of a new bull leg higher. So buying pullbacks will be the way to get in on the action next week.
Patience is a virtue and initializing a trade this late on a Friday is never a way to have a peaceful weekend. Better to come in next week and identify a rising trend.
BTC New Bull Market 99% Confidence99% Confidence
It is now official that BTC has started its new bull market cycle after a confirmed weekly candle close above 25.5k. Major Wyckoff accumulation phase is over, now is the time to mark up the price. Elliot Wave analysis also confirmed that the whole move in the last quarter is a new cycle wave 1. And price has already made weekly candle close above 50/200 EMA and 200 SMA, a very convincing move.
BTC can still go up somewhere to 30-37k and then stop, next it will make a corrective move of cycle wave 2 for 6-8 months and land above major Wyckoff accumulation trading range, so it will be somewhere at 25-27k or maybe higher. The low of wave 2 will be the third best time to buy. So wave 3 is around Q4 2023-Q1 2024.
I still amazed by how BTC can still going up and stay in its traditional cycle despite all the odds that conventionally only gold survived. And even now BTC strongly inverse correlated with SPX, a decouple phenomenon, maybe only temporary.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #05Good evening , we are from Ukraine!
The price range has been reached. Next, I assess the weakness of the acquisition recovery. UT is fixed, UTAD is possible. I'm going to support the trade.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success .
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #04Good evening , we are from Ukraine!
I'm finishing the previous idea and continuing the new one.
Action plan for this trade:
I'm waiting for UT/UTAD because there is liquidity there, then confirmation. I'm targeting the price of 25652.
Good luck to everyone!
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success.
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin
Analysis of Wyckoff Accumulation Models and Prediction of BTCI have been closely following two models of accumulation: Wyckoff Events and Phases, specifically Accumulation #1 and Accumulation #2.
Accumulation #1: Wyckoff Events and Phases is a model that describes the different stages that a market goes through during an accumulation phase. These stages include the Spring, the Test, the Upthrust, and the Markup. In this model, the Spring is the point at which the market reaches its lowest point, and a potential reversal is on the horizon. The Test is where the market tests the Spring's lows and forms a higher low, indicating that a new uptrend is forming. The Upthrust is where the market rises above the previous high but ultimately fails to sustain this level. Finally, the Markup is where the market rallies and moves higher in a sustained uptrend.
Accumulation #2: Wyckoff Events and Phases is another model that describes the market's behavior during an accumulation phase. This model follows a similar progression to Accumulation #1 but with some key differences. The first difference is that it includes a preliminary support level, which is a level below the Spring where buyers start accumulating the asset. The second difference is that it includes a Last Point of Support, which is the final level of support that holds the market up before the Markup begins.
Currently, I am closely monitoring the market's behavior as it approaches the liquidation zones. Based on my analysis, I am sticking to my plan of events and expect the market to withdraw and drop the target to the area of $15500 - $14000. I will continue to closely watch Bitcoin's price action and adjust my strategy accordingly.
DXY:
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
SP500 - 2023
SP500 - 2008
SP500:
In the next few years, it is expected that cryptocurrency regulations and taxes will become more prevalent, which may lead many people to leave centralized exchanges due to account blocks and the inability to prove the source of their funds. Uniswap and DyDx are predicted to be the leading trading platforms in the near future. However, Ethereum may also face tighter regulations, resulting in wallet blocks for USDT, USDC, Ethereum, and other tokens. If such a scenario occurs, anonymous coins such as Monero, Litecoin (mimble wimble), and Bitcoin with the Taproot system could become a new trend. We will need to observe how the situation unfolds.
In addition, high inflation worldwide may cause Bitcoin to reach a price of $250,000 in the next couple of years.
BTC Wyckoff AccumulationNotice: Since January 16th I have charted out this possible Wyckoff accumulation schematic. I have only updated the supply and demand boxes to justify the moves that have happened, but the pathway hasn't been touched. With this most recent push up to 26k I thought now was the time to publish this idea.
BTC is at a point where my idea is either invalidated or it will continue to playout until it is invalidated. A weekly close above the weekly swing high will change my expectations for this chart, but could still have a similar pathway. If we get a close above, then we will have an actual market structure shift on the weekly since the bear market started. At that point I would be looking for a double bottom and the lows to be revisited, or possibly a sweep of the lows were we never get a close below.
If we don't get a close above then this idea is still in play and I will be looking for the "Sell in May" to start to bring the market down, apathy to kick in and people to stop caring for a little while. Summer Lull will continue to bring the market lower, with a rally here or there but ultimately the downtrend to stay intact. Coming into Aug/September, a bottom to be formed and wash out all the bulls that were calling for the bottom to already be in. Nov/Dec we can get our Q4 rally heading into the new year where we could see an actual change in market sentiment, just in time for the FED to start QE and heading into the halving where we will see the start of a new bull market. This chart takes wyckoff and pairs it with seasonality and the current market conditions that makes sense to me. Everyone seems to not want to take the current macro economic conditions going on into consideration. This idea I believe does.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #02Good evening , we are from [b ]Ukraine!
At the price of 19549.09 , there is a resumption of acquisitions, as I said in the previous idea.
The deal is for the current period of time.
I'll continue with the previous idea.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success.
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin