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Wyckoff

XAU/USD to continue dropping?From both technical and fundamental analysis I believe we should be seeing the beginning of a gold drop. Gold has been nothing but bullish with extreme euphoric movement. Following Donald Trumps win in the American election we can expect the dollar to begin its bullish ascent meaning that its time for the XAU/USD to finally start its descent. from my charts we can see that I predict a slight bullish move from the market open reacting of an 8H Imbalance taking Asian high liquidity from the upside and reacting from another 8H IMB to ultimately continue in its downtrend at least until the daily zone that caused a previous break of structure to the upside.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JamelCapital
SLB 5M Daytrade Long Aggressive CounterTrend tradeAggressive CounterTrend trade - short impulse + support level - unvolumed T1 level + volumed 2Sp- - weak test closed below T1 + first bullish bar closed entry - target beyond 5M / 1H range Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit expandable to swing / investment trade 1 Hour CounterTrend "- short balance + expanding ICE + support level + biggest volume manipulation" 1 Day Trend "+ long impulse + SOS test level + support level + 1/2 correction" 1 Month Trend "+ long balance + expanding ICE level + support level + 1/2 correction + volumed manipulation" Sell SLB Limit 44.54, GTC Sell SLB Stop 42.29 LMT 43.06, GTC
NYSE:SLBLong
by MishaSuvorov
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.09200 back down This week’s analysis for EUR/USD is somewhat different from GBP/USD. I expect price to continue dropping from one of the two supply zones I’ve identified. I’ll be watching for a potential Wyckoff distribution pattern to form at these zones. Once I see signs of distribution, I’ll look to enter short positions, targeting the liquidity pool below. If, during the week’s election events, price drops to fill the gap left at Sunday’s open, I see potential for buys from the 1-hour demand zone. I’ll wait for signs of price slowing down and accumulating to identify good entry points for long trades. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: - Price is approaching a premium supply area. - Significant liquidity lies below, including untouched Asian session lows. - The higher timeframe trend remains bearish. - The DXY still shows strong bullish pressure. P.S. Although there’s been a recent shift in character to the upside, I still view EUR/USD as bearish on the higher timeframe, especially with the dollar’s ongoing bullish momentum. I’ll observe price behavior within my points of interest to determine the best entries.
Short
by Hassan_fx
Increase the difficulty level on yourself. Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more". Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis. If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out. Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market" Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden. Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets). 1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise). You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second. When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways. The second rule; Each trend has three phases: Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion. Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase) Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit. This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap. Then, the 3rd rule. The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news). 4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend. (I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.) Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend. As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.) You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles. The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall. In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift. Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest" We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame. At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down. Something like this; You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
9
EUR/USD Sells to continue from 1.08300 or 1.08500EU Analysis Breakdown: My bias for EU aligns closely with GU, anticipating a continued bearish trend as long as the DXY remains bullish. I’ve marked out two supply zones and will wait for either to be mitigated, followed by my lower time frame execution model involving Wyckoff principles. Once I spot a Wyckoff distribution pattern, liquidity sweep, and CHOCH, I’ll initiate a sell position to keep with the downward trend. If price reaches the 9-hour demand zone at 1.07500, I’ll assess potential buy opportunities there. Confluences for EU Sells: - Strong bullish momentum in the DXY supports a downward bias for EU. - EU’s consistent bearish structure aligns with this trend-following approach. - An untouched supply zone provides a key area for potential sell entries. - Significant downside liquidity offers additional targets. P.S. Price could alternatively rise due to the liquidity above the supply zone, particularly around Asia session highs. Trade safely and stay smart out there!
Short
by Hassan_fx
USDC.D In a Wyckoff Distribution range - Breakdown imminentUSDC.D Looking bearish as hell here in its Wyckoff distribution range. Compare it to USDT.D and see the similarities. The difference being USDC.D is leading here and weaker, compared with USDT.D. Both still look great for the downside here and its only a matter of time before they roll over and the market runs to new highs! USDC.D: USDT.D: Once this breaks down with USDT.D, we are in for the next bullish expansion in the market to new ATHs!
CRYPTOCAP:USDC.DShort
by marshyyy
USDT.D Incoming bearish reversal and a bullish market and Q4!Im loving the look of USDT.D right now, it looks so bearish with the recent HTF closes. It looks done for and in the perfect wyckoff distribution. Following the plan to a T, rejecting off the 5.90% level as discussed in the prior analysis where this was a key resistance level from the first PSY event. Price has refused to push to the upper limit of the range, rejecting from the last supply point and PSY in the range, formed a swing high on the daily, swept that high and is now continuing to distribute lower in line with the HTF picture. This does look like a local top here following the last points of supply and we could be putting in local bottoms in the market. Market could start its next run higher anytime over the next couple weeks now! Be patient, we are almost there!
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by marshyyy
BTC - Wyckoff Reaccumulation Cycle stages **The Wyckoff Reaccumulation Cycle Within an Uptrend: A Comprehensive Guide** The Wyckoff Method is a technical analysis framework developed by Richard D. Wyckoff in the early 20th century. This approach helps traders and investors identify market patterns and trends, providing valuable insights for buying and selling decisions. One essential component of the Wyckoff Method is the reaccumulation cycle, which occurs within an uptrend. In this article, we'll explore the stages of the Wyckoff reaccumulation cycle within an uptrend, providing a comprehensive guide for traders and investors. Preliminary Support The reaccumulation cycle within an uptrend begins with preliminary support. This phase marks the consolidation of the uptrend, as prices bounce off a support level. Preliminary support indicates that buying interest is present and that the market is stabilizing. During this phase, traders and investors should look for signs of accumulation, such as increasing demand and decreasing supply. Buying Climax After preliminary support, the buying climax phase occurs. This phase is characterized by a sharp increase in prices, often accompanied by high trading volume. The buying climax is a sign of strong buying demand and marks the beginning of the reaccumulation cycle within the uptrend. Automatic Rally Following the buying climax, the automatic rally phase begins. Prices continue to rise, but at a slower pace than the initial uptrend. This automatic rally is a natural response to the buying pressure and provides an opportunity for traders and investors to buy or add to their positions at lower prices. Secondary Test In the secondary test phase, prices reach the high but then experience a minor decline. This decline tests the preliminary support level, providing an opportunity for traders and investors to assess the market's strength and identify potential buying opportunities. Sign of Weakness After the secondary test, the sign of weakness phase occurs. Prices decline further, indicating that selling pressure is increasing. This sign of weakness can be a warning that the uptrend is losing momentum, and traders and investors should be cautious. Up Thrust Following the sign of weakness, the up thrust phase begins. Prices experience another sharp increase, often accompanied by high trading volume. This up thrust is a bullish signal, indicating that buying demand is strong and that the market is regaining its upward momentum. Up Thrust After Distribution In the up thrust after distribution phase, prices continue to rise but then experience a minor decline, testing the preliminary support level again. This up thrust after distribution is a sign of strength and potential for further advance. Test After the up thrust after distribution, the test phase occurs. Prices decline further, testing the preliminary support level once more. This test is a normal part of the reaccumulation cycle and provides an opportunity for traders and investors to assess the market's strength. Spring Following the test, the spring phase begins. Prices experience a sharp increase, often accompanied by high trading volume. This spring is a bullish signal, indicating that buying demand is strong and that the uptrend is regaining its momentum. Test Again In the test again phase, prices decline again, testing the preliminary support level for the third time. This test again is a normal part of the reaccumulation cycle and provides a final opportunity for traders and investors to assess the market's strength. Jump Across Creek After the test again phase, the jump across creek phase occurs. Prices experience a sharp increase, breaking through the previous high and confirming the new primary advance. This jump across creek signals the end of the reaccumulation cycle and the beginning of a new phase in the uptrend. Last Point of Support The last point of support phase marks the final support level before the new primary advance. Prices may test this level one more time before moving higher, providing a final opportunity for traders and investors to buy or add to their positions. Conclusion The Wyckoff reaccumulation cycle within an uptrend is a natural part of the market's evolution. Understanding these stages can help traders and investors identify potential buying and selling opportunities, manage risk more effectively, and make informed trading and investment decisions. As always, it's essential to use this information in conjunction with other indicators and market analysis to achieve success.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TraderE9
1
WYCKOFF - A BITCOIN MOVE!I've been implementing this macro pattern in my trading activity even before 2023 started, due to the Tritch Matrix, a cycle theory of investment proposed by George Tritch. The theory suggests that it's time to purchase assets at the beginning of a new cycle, which is predicted to peak in 2026. With this understanding, investing in Bitcoin seemed to be the optimal strategy considering its past performance trend. Currently, we can observe the perfect unfolding of this pattern and can identify our existing position. Moreover, it's important to be aware of the recent manipulation tactics often employed by the media to affect markets, particularly retail, nudging them into providing liquidity, also referred to as 'Dumb money.' Don't get caught out - have a plan and stick to it!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TraderE9
SLF WYCKOFF WYCKOFF accumulation/distribution pattern on the SLF chart. Could this be the start of a reversal and a move up?? I think it could. My reason is as a fresh new coin this is good for a Bullrun, little to no selling pressure as price rises due to no bag holders selling at break even from previous bull cycles. A rounded bottom structure can provide a base for price to rally from, it proves a growing confidence from buyers, once the top of this mini range gets breached and accepted above it's a great breakout play. ATH is at +156% from current price, and as I stated before there is little to no selling pressure on the way up either which will help this to grow quickly once it gets going. A project that is in its first Bullrun in price discovery is a great combination!
by ProR35
THE PLAN IS THE PLAN Like i said before and i will say again im bullish on tesla and after the event im MEGA bullish on tesla As i managed to anticipate the scam dump since yesterday on premarket dont think the market is bearish dont be triggered to think it is, DONT BOTTOM SHORT. We are at the 100 daily EMA and that is MEGA FAIR VALUE for WALLSTREET. This whole dump is to grab retail traders money. BUY NOW while you can. CUP AND HANDLE TARGET IS 400! We are right now on october lowest point and below the value area high and actually at the 3 months POC. i've been covering tesla since around august dont say you didnt know! TSLA MOONING
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Captainobvious5454
TOTAL - Wyckoff Accumulation 2 Setting up!Price come into the monthly demand at the $1.8 trillion level and we have since formed range conditions after a selling climax event with a massive volume rejection on the weekly and daily wicks into the monthly demand range as shown on the chart. This was also discussed and noted on 05/08 at the height of the crash where i noted the presence of high volume being a positive thing in stopping the proceeding bearish trend alongside the fear and greed index reading 26 in fear as we come into key levels after the capitulation showing us great signs. TOTAL Volume Analysis from 05/08: Since then we have formed a local range after the high volume capitulation low got put in and many question whats next in this range? For me, im seeing this as an accumulation range after the SC event just like ive detailed on BTC. I think we have bottomed in the market, i think we are accumulating here in this local range and we are likely to form a last point of support (LPS) and HL in the range before a breakout of the highs into new highs over Q4. Its setting up great here and im confident we dont put in new lows from here. Im expecting a little more correction in the range as shown into the LPS but overall im focused on the upside from here in line with the HTF!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by marshyyy
TOTAL - Wyckoff Accumulation Range in Progress!Price come into the monthly demand at the $1.8 trillion level and we have since formed range conditions after a selling climax event with a massive volume rejection on the weekly and daily wicks into the monthly demand range as shown on the chart. This was also discussed and noted on 05/08 at the height of the crash where i noted the presence of high volume being a positive thing in stopping the proceeding bearish trend alongside the fear and greed index reading 26 in fear as we come into key levels after the capitulation showing us great signs. TOTAL Volume Analysis from 05/08: Since then we have formed a local range after the high volume capitulation low got put in and many question whats next in this range? For me, im seeing this as an accumulation range after the SC event just like ive detailed on BTC. I think we have bottomed in the market, i think we are accumulating here in this local range and we are likely to form a last point of support (LPS) and HL in the range before a breakout of the highs into new highs over Q4. Its setting up great here and im confident we dont put in new lows from here. Im expecting a little more correction in the range as shown into the LPS but overall im focused on the upside from here in line with the HTF!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by marshyyy
TATN 5M Daytrade Short Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade - long impulse + biggest volume T1 + biggest volume 2Sp- + weakness - didn't wait for test to complete + target before 1/2 of hourly wave Calculated affordable stop loss 1 to 2 R/R take profit 1H Trend "+ exhaustion volume + short impulse + 1/2 correction + SOW / T2 volumed level + volumed manipulation" 1D CounterTrend "- long impulse - T1 level + resistance level + biggest volume manipulation" 1M Trend "+ short impulse + SOW level + 1/2 correction + resistance level" Convertible to Swing / Investment trade if 1H and 1D close right. Watch out for the gap since it's a stop market!
RUS:TATNShort
by MishaSuvorov
BTC Wyckoff accumulation Schematic 2 - Moving as planned!BTC Update: So since my analysis on BTC, price has delivered beautifully and exactly as anticipated from the forecast, having took the internal highs at FWB:65K and into HTF supply from the prior weekly bearish leg and we had the bearish reaction from this area. Price has pushed back into the daily range with a lovely bearish reaction, further fuelled by the FUD news, timed pretty much perfectly to the bearish momentum and downturn in the market as we sit in this accumulation range. However im not worried regarding the news as i see it as FUD in line with my wyckoff understanding. In line with my USDT.D update also posted recently⁠, im still seeing a little downside risk in BTC and im expecting it to continue bearish and push down deeper into the levels marked up between GETTEX:59K - $52K. This level is the discount of the accumulation range and the HTF weekly range and aligns with the weekly demand range, 3D demand range and daily demand range, alongside resting SSL to target at $57,500 in this area, making a prime reversal level and key level imo. As im viewing this as a reaccumulation range, following wyckoff schematic 2 as shown, im looking at price to form a last point of support in this area and a bullish reversal to form and expand out of it as shown. This is my main idea and thesis so far as we continue to range here after the capitulation event. Now my idea could get invalidated at a later time but right now its aligning pretty perfectly alongside what im seeing on USDT.D in its distribution range and price doesn't have to take the lows again on BTC so don't be fooled into thinking it does as right now its not suggesting this and im not looking for it. Patience is needed here as we need more price action to form to work with, but overall its looking great, i aint worried and my focus remains on the range. As a result, i expect alts to continue to bleed and underperform, especially as BTC.D continues to push up into HTF supply and ETH is looking rather weak here with potential to take its lows again, which could end up being SMT divergence between ETH and BTC as it forms its bottom here over the coming weeks. With Q4 just starting, im looking for the next expansion phase in the market to begin within this quarter, alongside the US elections next month which is typically a bullish event in the market! Its all aligning in my opinion for a bullish Q4 and Q1 of 2025, we just need to have patience here and not get shaken out in this range. In addition to this China has started quantitive easing and their market has went on a massive bullish run the last week, with the US also easing up on interest rates cutting them by half a point, leaving investors able to acquire debt at a cheaper rate which typically fuels further bullish momentum in the market, as the M2 money supply increases too which i will delve into in another post. Essentially as global money supply increases, money markets tend to also increase and ill break down this relationship in some other charts to show you just how correlated this is as its very interesting stuff. The technicals are aligning with the macros and i think its shaping up to be a great Q4 and Q1 of 2025! Dont be fooled by the first bearish tones to Q4, think of the monthly candle in terms of the PO3 Power of three formation, we have started the new monthly candle, forming the downside wick before the true expansion to the upside begins!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by marshyyy
USDT.D Pulling back into Last Point of SupplyUSDT.D Update: The markets pulling back as expected, this is as USDT.D pulls back into the range with some momentum, creating a bearish pullback in BTC and alts in conjunction with my prior BTC and USDT.D analysis Nothing to be worried about, simply pulling back into the range forming a last point of supply in the distribution range on USDT.D and a last point of support on BTC in its range. We still have some pain to come where i anticipate USDT.D to push higher into the areas marked up before seeing the reversal back bearish, what matters here is sticking to the plan and remaining patient. If your not allocated in the market, this pullback will provide ample opportunity to get some exposure and risk on before the next bullish leg in the market as USDT.D breaks down out of this range. This will be one of the last chances you get to get in coins that are still priced in discounts relative to the HTF! As price has pushed into this area im seeing an increase in volume from the latest 2 daily candles which is a good sign imo as we come into this key area and supply. However, theres no signs yet to suggest the trend on USDT.D is over and we remain bullish on the daily and 4h as we push into the range high. As a result, im still expecting more pain in the market and red until USDT.D tops out and there is still room to the upside for it to push into as shown on the chart. I remain patient here and confident in my bias and idea still as nothing has changed at all. There is a lot of resistance coming up on USDT.D and id be surprised to see it continue to the upside when theres a lot of levels to clear in this range as well as the prior resistance at 6.51% and the PSY at 5.90%. These areas key areas and im looking for USDT.D to reject from these areas, with high volume before breaking down from the 4h into the daily and then pro trend in line with the HTF picture as discussed here: ⁠free-analysis-channel⁠. Patience needed here and some confirmations from these areas over the coming week or so! Never surprised, never worried and always composed 🫡
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by marshyyy
We are we doiiiingggg lol ?Daily: Tuesday trading was bearish pushing into the weekly low. Wednesday's price failed to take out Tuesday's daily low creating indecision. For me, that's giving the idea that Thursday can go either way 4hr: RTH shows that the NY session had mostly bullish volume but still a bearish presence at the highs. Longs will be favored if we can get above 20.266.00 M15: After the NY session on Tuesday, the price went into accumulation and attempted the expansion today leaving behind a m15 imbalance that I will be curious how the price reacts to if retested If it holds we can see long stepping back in, but if it fails price might push back to the lows I want to see how the overnight session trades to see if it gives any sentiment of price moving higher or lower in the Asian and London sessions.
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by martiedirect