Get started

Wyckoff

GOLD - EOM Update Monthly candle closed so here's an update - GOLD has now closed below 2011 resistance and it is now very apparent that this year's Upthrust has been a shakeout pattern (SOP) as was the 2020 top. Both these tops have similar characteristics that share similarity also with the 2 candle Evening Star pattern: A bullish candle, an upper wicked reversal candle and a bearish candle. And through this 3 candle pattern on both occasions price passed above 2011 resistance to then fall back below. Through the lens of Wyckoff this entire area since August 2020 top will most likely prove to be a Distribution phase and March low will prove to be SOW Sign Of Weakness which will eventually break to the downside and collapse into the more impulsive Mark Down. Taking the previous 2 major pivots in retracement ('15 - '22) and the previous 3 major pivots in projection ('11 - '15 - '22) finds an inverted phi (0.618) band between $1358 and $1423. And so I suggest that the next major pivot will be in that area. Also notice that there are quite a few minor tops in that area that would act as support. If market conditions are ripe then this may be a good area to buy however it may not be the eventual bottom. Not advice.
TVC:GOLDShort
by dRends35
6
Price Doubling Markup BrewingMajor major accumulation here. Can see in the DMI and stochastic, as well as the chart. Activation of markup is above 98. My initial target is the 111-127 range by July 11-15th. If it makes it above 133 I expect it to continue to as high as 177 by August (post-earnings). Goal Target by July 25th is 152-157. The yellow, orange, red zones are profit taking area - not financial advice but I like the July and August calls from 95-110, take some off in yellow, more off in orange, more in red zones. It will likely need to consolidate or pullback before attempting to break 133. Look to Roku's past for evidence it has major runs in it, my belief is that the time for the next major run is about to begin.
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by JerryManders
It is TimeActivates above 19762.41 Just to be clear I think the solid green or dashed green paths are most likely. We have until July 16th to get above 26330.82, else 32760.44 becomes a resistance with low probability of breaking. This probability decreases with time, and after July 27 the probability approaches 0. Based on the accumulation structure that developed recently, my best guess is they will use this window to mark this up explosively - If we can clear 26330.82 and then 32760.44 in this window then the initial target becomes 35259.49 by as soon as 6/16/2022 . If we clear initial target then it confirms the bottom of this cycle was in on June 18th; if the above becomes realized then the next target is 47048.92 by as soon as 8/24/2022. Please note this doesn't have to unfold, but probability is on the side of the bulls if this becomes activated above 19762.41 and price keeps up with time. A failed markup will risk a drop to as low as 6k-9k (but more likely 11k-13k, or until remaining overhanging supply is completely absorbed). The paths are moreso illustrative, this is after all a stochastic process. The solid green line is what I most expect and it will be something that will shock the world, mathematically they will invoke chaos with respect to demand. I believe this begins today. Heed, YOY Guardian {case 4.669201609...} We are from the dimension that exists in Y our future, translated in O ur past via R.E.M. within the dimension that exists in Y our present... or did
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by JerryManders
7
Markup ActivatedMarkup was activated this morning above 1089.43 If we clear 1111 I expect explosive upside to 1713.53 If we clear 1713.53 by July 12 (7/12/2022), it can run to test resistance at 2333.93 If we clear 2333.93 by July 21st, the initial target becomes 2752.20 - can hit this by July 25th Above 2752.20 (within this time window) and they invoke chaos with respect to demand. Goal target will become 3458.32 by 8/4/2022, but it can reach as high as 6189.97-7665.74 by October 27 This window of opportunity closes on 9/1/2022, after which the probability of being able to break resistance at 2333.93 begins to accelerate, and approaches 0 past October 27 2022. A realization of 2333.93 after Sep 1 will likely result in a rejection, followed by a downside move to a new low where they will re-attempt an accumulation setup that can end this corrective wave.
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by JerryManders
22
MONDAY OVERVIEW - Long term and intraday setups on INDEX and FXHi Traders, This is my view for this week on: - SPX500 - NAS100 - DAX - NZDUSD - GOLD - EURJPY I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are. Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected. If you follow my strategy you will be able to identify the right filters and triggers to enter correctly the market and avoid fake signals. I really hope you liked this video and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below this video to give me your point of view. Pit DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
by kitchen_trading
Markdown phase Hey all, I think GCO is in the beginning phases of a markdown phase. It is a retail stock(which I have a very bearish thesis on through year-end). I'm not currently short on this stock, but I would jump at the opportunity to get short should it get back into the high 50's. Considering it ran over 1000% from the pandemic low to its highs, it has a lot of potential room down and is seemingly out of steam. It has over a year's worth of buyers overhead that will look to sell and push down the price as it goes lower and lower; keep an eye on this one as it could move fast to the downside when the time is right. Considering I think the market will bounce in July(ahead of another leg lower), I am hesitant to enter short positions. That being said, I am definitely keeping an eye peeled on this name.
NYSE:GCOShort
by MichaelEugen1
1
BTC LONG Until 21.4k / 22.3k then SHORT to 16.3k!I made a previous Wyckoff chart too early on and I imagine lots of Bears were expecting a dump a lot earlier than how it actually happened. Now we are at this point, the situation is very clear. I can see this whole dump has been circled around the Monthly close. Now sometimes, there will be an initial Bull trap pump on the Monthly close, so I won't be setting Limit orders at 21.4k because I could wake up rekt. I am aware this could take us to 22.3k. (Apologies, my 2nd red squiggy line should have drawn it to 22.3k) However a max of 21.4k here is also a possibility, before we finally dump. I will be Market ordering based on what I see on the 1 minute charts during these levels. I am currently LONG 20,680 with a TP of 21,390. Something tells me I won't be getting much sleep 1st-2nd July!
by reiiss7
3
TDOC (zoom in from bigger picture idea)I posted the bigger picture view in my previous post where I provided the context for this idea, which is my near-term projection with 2 most likely paths of price action from current level)... see context overview below: To summarize: - the main pattern I am watching is the completion of wave C of an expanded flat - this is potentially wave II of a larger cycle, invalidated if price drops below 9. A local bottom at 27.30 on May 12 fits the criteria as the 5th subwave of C of this expanded flat, which would make it a 2.00 retracement of wave B of that EF (wave B is also my primary wave 5 at the all time high (ATH) of 308 back in Feb. 2021. - (1) - (2) of circle C was a double combo off correction off the ATH that broke down and has been forming the Z of a triple combo off the ATH that encompasses wave circle C of the expanded flat - (3) - (4) of circle C ended in an expanding triangle around the 1.618 retracement of circle B, this resulted in a nasty gap down to the level that TDOC went public (~28).. this was necessary to realize the 5th and final count of circle C, and also to retest TDOCs IPO level for support. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So now were here. The goal of the big money seems to accumulating shares and establishing a bottom at larger cycle wave II before beginning mark up. The move off the new low has the setup to be very explosive upside for a couple reasons: - it will simultaneously complete the expanded flat correction and the primary corrective wave - there is a massive gap to fill to the upside - potential for short squeeze with over 23% float, and the entire market is a dangerous enviroment for shorts right now if names like TDOC, SPOT, EPAM, etc. (i.e. solid companies with significant near-term upside potential) trigger the squeeze Here's what the chart and the math is telling me for TDOC - there is room next week to make a run to low-mid 40s (point target 46) and complete E of the new triangle forming at (5) of circle C. There is also evidence that wyckoff accumulation began after the gap down and is now in either phase b or c. -if c, then the spring was just realized at D of the blue triangle, and the next thing we will see is a sign of strength to a level > blue A. Looking at the trendline resistance through the highs of blue A & C, TDOC just broke above that Friday 6/24, and made a low just above the resistance (indicating potential support). The marginal gap is at 46, so it is possible to see a test of marginal gap fill at 46, which would be the SoS, followed by a backup/retest of the upper triangle for support before markup. I am getting confluence for the initial target from current level = 46, so I am expecting that to be the next level reached from here {confluence: 46 is my time series forecast by July 15, 46 is the extrapolated level that will be realized if RSI makes it to around 70 and becomes oversold - bullish momentum pointing to that, 46 is the 0.382 of the upper part of previous triangle (i.e. (4) of circle C), and 46 is the marginal gap). Thus, if blue D was in fact the spring, then expect the solid black path to materialize and continue to around 60 (0.618 w.r.t (4) of circle C, and just above the nominal gap fill in the mid 50s). Would likely consolidate at ~60 before deciding if it has the fuel to begin larger cycle III. If so, the next target will be 93 by Jan. 2023. IF solid black path is realized then will likely see an impulse wave off the 2022 low that has just begun to materialize. - if we are only in phase b of the wyckoff accumulation, then it is likely the spring will be at a lower low around 14-19. So the dotted black path is second most likely and would look like: - pop to 46 to complete blue E - drop to 14-19 to complete (5) of circle C, Z of triple combo, and ultimately larger cycle II - pop to low 50s to mark the SoS - retest triangle resistance around mid 30s - pop to 0.618 at ~60, consolidate, and then continue toward 90s by early 2023 * indication in favor of solid black path materializing is via a proprietary method I developed using stochastic differntial equations. I won't go into the details here, but I have learned not to bet against it when it gives a bullish signal - I got that signal Friday 6/24. Also, the fact that we got bought up at the critical support around the IPO price is a good sign it doesn't need to make a new low... however, if they want to do one more shakeout before markup then they will take it lower ** indication in favor of dotted black line materializing is that the DMI at the daily level does not yet show the properties I'd expect to see if spring was already realized (sorry not shown), it does, however, exhibit the properties of a spring already occuring at the 2-4 hour intervals. Also, I use proprietary control charts as supplemental analysis and they indicate there is moderate probability that after 42-46 there will be risk to 14-19. Here is my plan of action based on the above, as well as the linked idea of the bigger picture (this is not financial advice): - Buying shares Monday and will add in the bounce zone of 14-19 if given the opportunity - Buying Jul 8 2022 35.00 calls and looking to sell when underlying reaches 42 and then 46 next week (both paths are pointing to initial target of 46) - Buying Oct 21 2022 50.00 calls with expectation we see solid black path, hedging with July 15 30.00 puts in case we see dotted black path - in which case I will exit the Oct calls if TDOC closes below 32 and then re-enter Oct 21 45.00 calls once TDOC bounces at 14-19 using the profits from the hedge. Bye.
NYSE:TDOCLong
by JerryManders
AAPL redistribution before next leg lowerHey everybody, I've been noticing that the patterns leading up to the fakeout rallies in March have been repeating themselves in numerous market-moving names- namely NVDA, MSFT, and AMZN. I think there's a strong possibility that AAPL goes to test new lows in the next two weeks, only to be met with tremendous buying pressure that will subsequently lead to a fakeout rally that could take it to around $150/share before the next leg lower(redistribution). I think this could push AAPL to the low 100's and possibly double digits by the end of Summer. I am expecting to play this both ways- I will buy any 52-week low made on AAPL in anticipation of a large countertrend rally, and I will subsequently sell the rip and possibly short it in anticipation of the next leg lower. Mind you AAPL is still very high up relative to some other names. Disclaimer: I do believe we're at the end of a market cycle(a crash) and are simply redistributing before the next leg lower which should begin sometime around late July or early August.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by MichaelEugen1
5
DEERE IN HEADLIGHTSHey guys, As the other names in the market have been crashing, DE has always stood out to me for how well it has held up to this point. That being said, I do not expect this to hold up for much longer. Starting with basic fundamental analysis, DE is overvalued compared to its historical figures- the stock generally is usually at a single-digit P/E ratio, but currently rests above 16. On a technical analysis basis, the stock is extremely extended to the upside, is fresh off of a false breakout, and has a lot of room down before the year-end. In the immediate term, I expect the stock to hold up through July and maybe even see a little fakeout rally. That being said, I think the stock is entering a markdown phase and should be headed lower in a violent manner by August. This is backed by other distribution patterns in other agriculture names(CF, CAT) and in mutual funds such as MOO. I would not be surprised if this stock saw its pre-pandemic levels before year-end. Disclaimer: I'm currently short on DE with a cost basis of $388/share and am looking to size up my position
NYSE:DE
by MichaelEugen1
1
MOO running out of grassHey everybody, I've been following MOO as of late as I'm currently short DE and waiting on an entry for CAT short as well; I've noticed that it has essentially been forming a Wyckoff-style distribution pattern, and is one of the few sectors in this market that isn't brutally beaten down at this point. I'm currently expecting a countertrend rally upwards in this name, but I fully expect the rally to be faded and for this sector to enter a brutal markdown phase that will take it to pre-pandemic levels well before 2023. The question in my eyes is when and where will the rally be faded? My current ideal entry short on this name rests around $92/share
AMEX:MOO
by MichaelEugen1
1
Possible short setup XLBHey y'all, On XLB, there is little to suggest that we aren't going to have a counter-trend rally in July. That being said, there are even fewer things suggesting that said rally would not be faded, though predicting where exactly the rally will be faded is an incredibly difficult task. If it somehow manages to push its way up to $82/share, I think it would be an incredible short, though I think it may only make it to around $80. Good luck with your trading!
AMEX:XLBShort
by MichaelEugen1
2