MU ACCUMULATIONLooks Like accumulation into break-out soon or possibly last leg of Accumulation with Final Shake-Out
Wyckoffaccumulation
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave Theory, Part 3Hello Traders. With the new year upon us, I think sufficient time has passed for the charts to develop from our previous #Bitcoin analysis. Having accurately forecasted the macro trends for each pivot within a reasonable margin of error, I believe we're approaching another pivotal moment this year, aligning with our previous predictions. Please take this post with a grain of salt, and more importantly, please use it to add confluence to your personal theories.
In this post, we will be diving deeper into the Elliott Wave Theory by also integrating the Wyckoff Market Cycle Theory.
By combining the two theories, the chart below represents our current position within the final leg for what could be giving us signs of a possible reversal (again, within margin of error depending on how far wave 5 extends):
Wyckoff believed that markets move in cycles, which arguably has a direct correlation to the Elliott Wave 5-wave/3-wave cycle. Wyckoff introduced a four-stage market cycle , attributing it to the actions of institutional players who strategically influence price movements to capitalize on the behavior of uninformed traders. Simply put, the theory gives us a further understanding of 'cause and effect' within the markets.
In my view, the Wyckoff cycle also does a fantastic job of representing market psychology. And if intertwined correctly with the Elliott Wave Theory, price action tends to follow patterns in similar ways. The Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Theory often overlap in their application and interpretation of market behavior, but they approach the market from different perspectives. Both theories aim to understand and predict market movements based on the behavior of market participants and price cycles, making them complementary in many ways.
Commonalities Between the Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Theory:
Market Cycles
- Wyckoff Theory identifies a four-stage market cycle: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. The Elliott Wave Theory also emphasizes cyclic behavior through a fractal structure of impulsive and corrective waves within broader market cycles.
- Both theories suggest that price movements are not random but follow identifiable patterns driven by market psychology.
Psychological Basis
- Wyckoff focuses on the interaction between "big players" (institutional traders) and "uninformed traders," highlighting group psychology and how institutional actions exploit public sentiment.
- Elliott Wave focuses on the crowd psychology behind price movements, suggesting that mass investor sentiment drives waves in predictable patterns.
**Both theories reflect the influence of human behavior and emotions on market prices.**
Application Across Timeframes
- Both theories are applicable across multiple timeframes, from intraday trading to long-term investments. This flexibility allows traders to use them in conjunction for deeper market analysis.
Identification of Trends and Reversals
- In Wyckoff Theory, phases like Markup and Markdown align with Elliott Wave's impulsive trends, while Accumulation and Distribution phases can correspond to corrective wave patterns.
- Both approaches aim to identify key turning points in the market, helping traders anticipate trends and reversals.
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The Four Stages of the Market Cycle According to Wyckoff
Accumulation Phase
This is a sideways range where institutional traders accumulate positions quietly to avoid driving prices higher. During this phase, the asset remains out of the public spotlight, and uninformed traders are largely unaware of the activity. On a price chart, the phase appears as a range-bound movement between areas of support and resistance.
Markup Phase
Following the accumulation phase, the market enters a classic uptrend. As prices rise, uninformed traders begin to notice and join in, further fueling the rally. Institutional players may take partial profits or continue holding for greater gains. Short sellers caught off guard are forced to cover their positions, adding additional buying pressure and driving prices to new highs.
Distribution Phase
After the uptrend loses momentum, the market transitions into a sideways range, marking the distribution phase. Institutional players use this period to offload their holdings, while uninformed traders, still expecting higher prices, continue to buy. Some institutional traders may also initiate short positions during this phase to benefit from the subsequent price decline. On the price chart, this phase appears as a reversal of the uptrend into a sideways range.
Markdown Phase
The markdown phase is characterized by a downtrend following the distribution phase. Institutional traders add to their short positions, while uninformed traders, recognizing the decline too late, sell in panic, creating further downward pressure. The market eventually reaches new lows as selling accelerates.
The Model of Group Psychology
After the markdown phase, the cycle often repeats, moving from accumulation to markup, distribution, and markdown again. The Wyckoff cycle offers a simplified perspective on market behavior, focusing on the psychological dynamics between two groups: institutional traders (the "big players") and uninformed traders (the "small players"). It highlights how the mistakes and emotional reactions of uninformed traders often benefit institutional players.
The Wyckoff cycle provides valuable insights into market behavior but is not without limitations:
Limitations of the Wyckoff Trading Cycle
Difficulty in Identifying Phases
Distinguishing between accumulation and distribution phases can be challenging. What appears to be an accumulation phase might turn into a distribution phase, with the market unexpectedly breaking lower.
Timing Challenges
Entering trades during accumulation or distribution phases is difficult due to the lack of clear stop-loss levels. Placing stops around support and resistance often leads to being trapped.
Complexity in Trading Trends
Trading the markup and markdown phases requires skill, as they are filled with complex price action patterns. Modern markets often experience frequent trend reversals, complicating trade execution.
Irregular Cycles
The market does not always follow the textbook sequence of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Variations such as accumulation followed by markdown or other combinations are possible.
Despite its limitations, the Wyckoff cycle remains a useful framework for understanding market behavior. It is best combined with other strategies, such as price action and market dynamics, to enhance its practical applicability. While modern markets may reduce the cycle's predictive reliability, it still serves as a powerful tool for traders who know how to apply it effectively.
Proper Application of the Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Overlap (in Practice):
Trend Identification:
The Markup Phase in Wyckoff often aligns with Elliott's Impulse Waves (1, 3, and 5), while the Markdown Phase aligns with corrective waves or bearish impulses.
Sideways Markets:
Wyckoff’s Accumulation and Distribution phases correspond to Elliott’s Corrective Waves (A-B-C) or sideways consolidations (Flats and Triangles).
Volume Confirmation:
Traders can use Wyckoff’s volume analysis to validate Elliott Wave patterns, especially in identifying wave 3's (typically accompanied by high volume) and wave 5's (often showing declining volume).
Timing and Execution:
Wyckoff’s emphasis on identifying support/resistance levels and trading ranges can help refine the entry and exit points suggested by the Elliott Wave Theory.
Combining the Two:
Many traders find value in combining these theories:
- Use Wyckoff to identify key price levels and market phases (e.g., when accumulation or distribution is occurring).
- Use Elliott Wave to determine the broader trend structure and anticipate the next moves within those levels.
- By integrating Wyckoff’s volume-driven approach with Elliott’s fractal patterns, traders can gain a comprehensive view of the market and improve their ability to time trades effectively.
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By integrating the concepts from both theories and the outlined schematics, we can now take a closer look at how Bitcoin is behaving through the lens of these frameworks.
As observed, Bitcoin appears to be nearing the completion of the potential 5th wave we've been discussing over the past year. In my view, a bear market (or at least a significant correction) may be approaching. While timing is uncertain due to the unlikely nature of extensions, we can use insights from both Wyckoff and Elliott Wave theories to gauge our current position. I believe we are likely in the Distribution phase, which aligns with the 5th wave.
The 5th wave can extend as much as it wants, but it won't change the overall conclusion of the cycle. We still anticipate the cyclical behavior that Bitcoin has shown in the past. While past price action isn't necessarily a predictor of future movements, it often follows a similar pattern.
GBP USD Complete Analysis - Top Down - Structure wiseHi guys,
Below im going to go through a detailed breakdown of GBP USD for longer term swing trades and what i am looking for to confirm any trade direction.
Firstly i want to start of at the monthly time frame:
Below is a photo of the monthly timeframe clearly showing bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows:
So our monthly bias is bearish, and the last rally could just be a pull back to continue lower, However, considering that the low that was created in September of 2022 created a new all time low for the pair, i am skeptical that this pair will go any lower. Furthermore, looking at the price action from the low of 2016 till date we can see that price has been pretty much range bound, which also looks to be a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. However this will only be confirmed once price breaks above the last high marked up in the above drawing, as this will confirm bullish strength and a break of long term structure to the upside.
Conclusion of monthly time frame analysis: Trend is bearish but it seems to be at it's turning point. So we need to see confirmations of lower timeframe to determine weather price will continue to drop or go higher.
Now lets look at the daily time frame:
Looking on the daily time frame we clearly see bullish structure, with higher lows and higher highs, however remember this entire structure could just be a pull back of the monthly time frame's bearish structure.
So when will this move be considered a pull back of the bearish monthly structure? if price manages to break the recent low marked up in the above drawing at around 1.204. this will indicate a break of the bullish structure on the daily timeframe and a shift from bullish to bearish structure.
As long as price is above this low, 1.204 then the structure will remain to be bullish.
So to recap, on the monthly we are overall bearish but we are expecting that we are at the end of the bearish move, but we need to see the lower timeframes confirm if price wants to go higher. As of now, the daily structure is bullish and the structure is holding. So we can look for buys at this point.
Lets go down to the 4 hr time frame:
On the 4 hr timeframe we can see the clear bearish structure. but remember that as long as price is above the 1.204 mark then we are bullish on the daily, so this bearish structure gives us opportunities to enter long positions at lower prices. But in order to confirm that this bearish structure will not just continue to drop and shatter the 1.204 mark, then we need to see a shift in structure from bearish to bullish, which will occur when price breaks above the high in the above photo at around 1.28. This will indicate the end of this bearish pull back and a change in structure from bearish to bullish, so then we will have bullish structure on the 4 hr and the daily time frames. Entries however will be taken on the 15 or 5 min timeframes, when the time comes. For now i need to wait and see if the 4 hr structure will turn bullish or not.
Also another note on the 4 hr timeframe, structure aside, we can see some signs of accumulation where we have just done a quick sweep and stop hunt of the lows which also indicate that bullish strength may enter soon. As shown in the below photo:
So overall i am bullish on GBP USD but i need the 4 hr time frame to confirm my bias by breaking structure upwards and clearing the 1.28 mark. At that point we will scope in on the 15 min for entries on pull backs.
The other scenario is if price continues to be bearish, and breaks the low on the daily time frame at around 1.204, this will completely shift our bias from bullish to bearish, and will look for sell positions on pull backs.
So for now, we wait. Wait for price to show you what it wants to do, does it want to respect the bullish structure on the daily time frame? or does it want to shift the structure from bullish to bearish? this will be the deciding factor here. And based on that we can analyze further and look to take some good swing trades.
If you made it this far, i thank you for your time and patience, and i hope this helped you in some way.
Thank you, and happy new year to everyone!!
Wyckoff Accumulation SchematicBTC has formed a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic on the H4 even more distinguishable on H1.
According to it, we are only in phase B, so it's a long way to go before we will see a new ATH.
Fill up your bag, it's a great buy opportunity before the crazy 2025 run.
Litecoin the Rumpelstiltskin of Crypto Ready to Wake UpI hope Santa treated everyone well for the holidays. It’s been a while since I’ve shared some TA, I thought it might be good to check out a dark horse which has been showing some signs of life and a bit of buzz lately. Dino-Coin everyone loves to hate – Litecoin.
On the LTF (1D) Point and Figure, the formation is currently printing a reaccumulation pattern, with strong support consolidating around the $97 handle after printing a Shakeout Spring pattern to the $87 handle in Phase B, a subsequent test of that support at the $97 handle, and a Jump Across the Creek (JAC) in Phase C.
The horizontal price count suggests a potential near-term move to the $140 from a Sign of Strength (SOS), with the potential to cap out the Buying Climax (BC) at the $170 handle.
Given Bitcoin PA appears to be in Phase E of a distribution pattern targeting the $87,000 handle, it’s possible the $87 handle would be tested during this Bitcoin distribution cycle.
Should Litecoin break support at the $97 handle and successfully retest support at the $87 handle, the horizontal price count in this scenario suggests a potential near-term move to the $129 from a Sign of Strength (SOS), with the potential to cap out the Buying Climax (BC) at the $170 handle.
A break below $86 would show a Change of Character from accumulation to distribution, which would invalidate the formation.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
FTM ready to Go-Break out of the downtrend has been completed One of the best strategies, breakout of the down trend and retest it.
Strengths Points: one week candle has broken the blue down trend and it may continue to enter the white wide range, also reverse head and shoulders pattern formed
Target points and Stop Loss are marked on the chart.
I am Just sharing insights and market trends for learning and growing every day and it is not financial advice.
Wajani Investment...Long-term investment in this currencyGBPCAD 12/24/2024
This trade is for those looking to invest in a currency. This is a long-term trade (investment).
This pair entered consolidation or has been in accumulation since 2016 (PS) . It created a Spring (SP) sometime in 2022 and finally the l ast point of support (LPS) in 2024 .
It has taken approximately nine years of accumulation to reach LPS. For those who are familiar with Wyckoff trading method , this is more understandable.
This shit is gonna explode like BTC lol
If you are interested in learning more, please reach out. Remember, this is for educational purposes ONLY.
Let me know your thoughts.
For educational purposes only.
USD/JPY Trade Recap: Precision at Its Best!This trade on USD/JPY played out beautifully, showcasing the power of a well-structured approach and advanced tools like the WiseOwl Indicator. Let’s break it down:
Trade Context:
On the 1H timeframe, the market was respecting a clear bullish structure.
Using the WiseOwl Indicator, I spotted an ideal entry point at the breakout of the accumulation phase, which aligned perfectly with the higher timeframe trend.
What Happened:
The entry signal was spot on, and price moved precisely toward my medium-term target of 156.74 and even beyond.
Currently, price is hovering around 157.45, and I’m watching for a potential pullback into the 155.50–156.00 zone for the next move.
Key Takeaway:
The WiseOwl Indicator helps simplify decision-making by highlighting key setups in alignment with market structure. Paired with patience and a solid understanding of context, this creates high-probability opportunities.
💬 What are your thoughts on this trade? Are you using similar tools to refine your entries and exits? Let’s discuss below!
TSLA in the way to the all time highTSLA has jumped across the Greek (Wyckoff) and currently above the wide range for 2 weeks.
Now , TSLA heading to the all time high that marked in white color and may be reach before D.Trump inauguration on January 20, 2025
Target points and Stop Loss are marked on the chart.
I am Just sharing insights and market trends for learning and growing every day and it is not financial advice.
BITF linked with BTC performance and may achieve good targetsBITF linked with BTC performance and may achieve good targets
Incase of the down trendline has broken, we may see new big target achieved as marked in the chart
RKLB: Rocket Lab Approaching Final Phase of Wyckoff AccumulationRocket Lab ( NASDAQ:RKLB ) appears to be nearing the final stages of the Wyckoff accumulation pattern, where the stock is showing signs of strength and potential upward breakout.
GBPJPY BUY TRADE Oct 8 2024This trade comes to fruition after checking for manipulation of lows using 4H-1H-30min-15min.
Allowing me to activate the said pending order -Buy limit during London session (metatrader 4 platform) . I marked that demand because using the order flow, I can see enough evidence to go long. Risking 0.5% of the capital. Every trade that I initiate comes from the basic idea of supply and demand.
(please check the attached charts for a detailed structure of entry and exit points)
Always be patient and look for proof before you put pending order.
TOTAL - Wyckoff Accumulation 2 Setting up!Price come into the monthly demand at the $1.8 trillion level and we have since formed range conditions after a selling climax event with a massive volume rejection on the weekly and daily wicks into the monthly demand range as shown on the chart. This was also discussed and noted on 05/08 at the height of the crash where i noted the presence of high volume being a positive thing in stopping the proceeding bearish trend alongside the fear and greed index reading 26 in fear as we come into key levels after the capitulation showing us great signs.
TOTAL Volume Analysis from 05/08:
Since then we have formed a local range after the high volume capitulation low got put in and many question whats next in this range?
For me, im seeing this as an accumulation range after the SC event just like ive detailed on BTC.
I think we have bottomed in the market, i think we are accumulating here in this local range and we are likely to form a last point of support (LPS) and HL in the range before a breakout of the highs into new highs over Q4.
Its setting up great here and im confident we dont put in new lows from here. Im expecting a little more correction in the range as shown into the LPS but overall im focused on the upside from here in line with the HTF!
TOTAL - Wyckoff Accumulation Range in Progress!Price come into the monthly demand at the $1.8 trillion level and we have since formed range conditions after a selling climax event with a massive volume rejection on the weekly and daily wicks into the monthly demand range as shown on the chart. This was also discussed and noted on 05/08 at the height of the crash where i noted the presence of high volume being a positive thing in stopping the proceeding bearish trend alongside the fear and greed index reading 26 in fear as we come into key levels after the capitulation showing us great signs.
TOTAL Volume Analysis from 05/08:
Since then we have formed a local range after the high volume capitulation low got put in and many question whats next in this range?
For me, im seeing this as an accumulation range after the SC event just like ive detailed on BTC.
I think we have bottomed in the market, i think we are accumulating here in this local range and we are likely to form a last point of support (LPS) and HL in the range before a breakout of the highs into new highs over Q4.
Its setting up great here and im confident we dont put in new lows from here. Im expecting a little more correction in the range as shown into the LPS but overall im focused on the upside from here in line with the HTF!
GBPJPY Oct 4 2024 pending buy limit activatedDetailed entry on GBPJPY maximizing liquidity grab. :)
This trade was taken during N.Y session of Oct 3 2024. I set pending buy limit because I saw Slow motion while approaching fair value gap (see charts arrow) . As I go to my fundamentals i saw an important NEWS --> NFP USD. Anticipating large momentum because of the demand introduced this week. This trade was a success, years of learning and charts behavior observation. Trade with confidence and patience. :)
Have a great day folks!
#wyckoff
#supplyanddemand
BTC Wyckoff accumulation Schematic 2 - Moving as planned!BTC Update:
So since my analysis on BTC, price has delivered beautifully and exactly as anticipated from the forecast, having took the internal highs at FWB:65K and into HTF supply from the prior weekly bearish leg and we had the bearish reaction from this area.
Price has pushed back into the daily range with a lovely bearish reaction, further fuelled by the FUD news, timed pretty much perfectly to the bearish momentum and downturn in the market as we sit in this accumulation range. However im not worried regarding the news as i see it as FUD in line with my wyckoff understanding.
In line with my USDT.D update also posted recently, im still seeing a little downside risk in BTC and im expecting it to continue bearish and push down deeper into the levels marked up between GETTEX:59K - $52K. This level is the discount of the accumulation range and the HTF weekly range and aligns with the weekly demand range, 3D demand range and daily demand range, alongside resting SSL to target at $57,500 in this area, making a prime reversal level and key level imo.
As im viewing this as a reaccumulation range, following wyckoff schematic 2 as shown, im looking at price to form a last point of support in this area and a bullish reversal to form and expand out of it as shown. This is my main idea and thesis so far as we continue to range here after the capitulation event. Now my idea could get invalidated at a later time but right now its aligning pretty perfectly alongside what im seeing on USDT.D in its distribution range and price doesn't have to take the lows again on BTC so don't be fooled into thinking it does as right now its not suggesting this and im not looking for it.
Patience is needed here as we need more price action to form to work with, but overall its looking great, i aint worried and my focus remains on the range.
As a result, i expect alts to continue to bleed and underperform, especially as BTC.D continues to push up into HTF supply and ETH is looking rather weak here with potential to take its lows again, which could end up being SMT divergence between ETH and BTC as it forms its bottom here over the coming weeks.
With Q4 just starting, im looking for the next expansion phase in the market to begin within this quarter, alongside the US elections next month which is typically a bullish event in the market! Its all aligning in my opinion for a bullish Q4 and Q1 of 2025, we just need to have patience here and not get shaken out in this range.
In addition to this China has started quantitive easing and their market has went on a massive bullish run the last week, with the US also easing up on interest rates cutting them by half a point, leaving investors able to acquire debt at a cheaper rate which typically fuels further bullish momentum in the market, as the M2 money supply increases too which i will delve into in another post.
Essentially as global money supply increases, money markets tend to also increase and ill break down this relationship in some other charts to show you just how correlated this is as its very interesting stuff.
The technicals are aligning with the macros and i think its shaping up to be a great Q4 and Q1 of 2025!
Dont be fooled by the first bearish tones to Q4, think of the monthly candle in terms of the PO3 Power of three formation, we have started the new monthly candle, forming the downside wick before the true expansion to the upside begins!
GBPJPY BUY Trade Activated Sept 26 A simple trade using the knowledge of market structure and checking the story from higher TF to lower TF.
As you can see, it is moving in the upward direction. I was waiting for buy trade using my old time buddy lists :) ---> POI ---> IMB, OB, Supply and Demand with validity or proof using BOS --> CHOCH or liquidity grab in the direction of the trend.
This trade was activated by a buy limit order at around N.Y session. Aiming for 4:1 RR :)
#smartmoney
#patience
#characterandiscipline
Snoflake [SNOW] Wyckoff Bullish PatternsVery fundamental company. The last consolidation after very large drops is a good prognosis for an upward exit. It is necessary to focus on Wyckoff Wave Volume, which decreases at the bottoms. This means a decrease in selling pressure. There were two shafts with a very large purchase volume and a wave marked with volume 200. It was a very large sale that did nothing to the price. This sale was absorbed by buyers.
This security has typical accumulation features. In my opinion, it is on BUY with a target of $ 140/150
For more analyses using price and volume and the Wyckoff method, subscribe to the profile
Wyckoff accumulation Schematic 2 setting up in the market:My thoughts on the crypto market looking at the HTF to the LTF setups playing out in these lows in altcoins.
Im thinking we capitulated into HTF key demand levels and SSL in August for the august monthly candle leaving a large downside range in most pairs creating the sellers climax (SC) event with huge volume nodes and wicks, starting the initial phase of the accumulation process in this local range and stopping the previous trend.
We have then ranged further and reaccumulate in the August candle in key levels creating the AR, ST and UA events in the range. Then as we moved into the September monthly candle where we failed to run the august lows with the ST event in phase b, as seller volume droped off as price tests the range lows indicating a lack of sellers after the SC event, giving us a possible wyckoff accumulation model 2 taking place as shown in the schematic below.
In turn leaving SSL intact on the august lows below $49,500 which we may not run, whilst people expect another sweep lower to take the LTF range lows, not realising its a potential accumulation range setting up in a larger overall range from the capitulation, without the need for an external LQ sweep to the lows again.
Im seeing a lot of coins following last points of support in accumulation structures on the LTF in key levels, flipping LTF bullish on the daily and now pushing higher.
Im thinking we see a possible expansion set up for October Q4 out of the lows in line with LTF bullish structure, going from LTF bullish accumulation following last points of support (LPS) into new HTF bullish structure as we come into Q4.
Thats kinda how im seeing the market set up right now and im leaning towards not seeing a further crash lower into new lows and the prior August lows for the most part just yet and more so towards this being an accumulation range with a pullback to LPS before a new bullish move higher into ATHs
[MANAUSDT] - Keep ur eye on it!as u see ... clearly wyckoff accumulation on weekly chart
price now is at a rock bottom
i recommend it for long term investment.
best regards Ceciliones🎯
Does Solana will continue their bounce play more than 45% !!Solana has gained more than 45 % from last fall down that was in 5th August 2024
the trend right now is inside the range ( Phase C - Wyckoff Method )
The far target is 216 ( Top of the side way range) if the Re-accumulation phase has succeed.
SL is 141.46 ( this for me is consider thin stop loss due to the high BINANCE:SOLUSDT volatility of the crypto market)
I am Just sharing insights and market trends for learning and growing every day and it is not financial advice.
PFE is it completed the Accumulation and Going to Fly ?! It is the first time to break out the wide range since DEC 2023
Now We are in Phase E ( Trading outside the Range) - Wyckoff Method
Supply showing Effort with no result
Demand has Increased
Also there is upcoming earning
so, Is the accumulation phase has completed and we are going to 🚀 ?!
TP 01 : 34.71
TP 02: 37.17
SL: 29.30
I am Just sharing insights and market trends for learning and growing every day and it is not financial advice.
Litecoin buyPrice made a TR with signs of strength, las down swing has been with diminished volume so I'm expecting this is a phase C of a re-accumulation.
let's see if price breaks the channel and wait for a successful test of the support line on the TR
