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Wyckoffdistribution

Wyckoff Distribution + InflationThe IWM has completed It's classic Wyckoff Distribution and we are now at Phase E. The target is 170-169 where we have found support. This is a warning for the entire Stock Market to abandon ship while you still can. The IVM is the Titanic and has hit the ICEBERG. We don't have enough boats to save everyone. People will be left on the ship stuck at all time highs holding the bags. "The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists." Ernest Hemingway This post is not Financial Advise.
AMEX:IWMShort
by nerdrx
NZD/JPY 4H Wyckoff 23:1 Risk to Reward RatioWyckoff Trading Method is amazing to understand the market and the big players who move the market. The idea is to understand when the market consolidates and wether it is in a distribution/re-distribution phase or accumulation/re-accumulation phase. Wyckoff gives you a big Risk to Reward Ration if entered right. In the NZD/JPY attached picture, the price consolidated and before it there was a change of character, there I have identified the PS (Point of Supply). Then the SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) were identified alongside ST (Second Test) to mark the end of Phase A. Trading Ranges are identified by SC & AR. Phase B had an Ultimate Thrust followed by an ST for Phase B. Phase C is where the big players trick you into thinking the price will go down while in fact the want to push it up. That is called the Spring which is then followed by a Test. The Test usually happens to gather the hedge funds companies to join along. Phase D is where we see Signs of Strength and could be followed by a Last Point of Supply for any companies to join along. You could enter a trade in Phase C or Phase D only and you could even go on lower timeframes for better entries. You have to have patiences when trading Wyckoff because you could have Re-accumulation instead of Accumulation. In our online courses, we'll teach you how you can identify the difference :) Please share and support and let me know what you think in the comments section. Thanks !
by yousifkf
$F which one of these gaps are we filling first, boys?Bull gap BELOW current SP - 6.3 pips 15.92 ; 16.55 Bear gap ABOVE current SP - 12.4 pips 18.63 ; 19.87 Personally, I am bearish short term, expecting to kiss that lower gap and possibly fill it before a potential bounce back to the upside. Possible Wyckoff Distribution setup was forming on 1D prior to earnings. Personally took a puts gamble on earnings. I have been following $F for some time now and the strength of the stock was obviously slowing. (Not to mention Cramer was pumping it lol) Hasn't had much legs since pumping and retracing quickly back to consolidation/support zone which was then lost on a big gap down after most recent earnings. Which way do you think she's heading? As always, manage your risk and GOOD LUCK! Not advice just insight*
NYSE:F
by Senor_C
2
Bitcoin Daily Chart - Wyckoff Distribution and Downtrend BreakAs the majority of traders have began showcasing various bearish signals, it is important that at this moment we zoom out of the chart and we observe the longterm pattern that has been created. On the daily chart we can observe a potential Wyckoff Distribution being completed which should continue with a downtrend. As of today, bulls are attempting to break off from the downtrend and enter two possible scenarios: - a shoot to ~47,000 breaching the strong resistance at ~45,000 which has already been tested several times. - sideways trading to consolidate the downtrend break, and build new support before finally attempting to pump in the ~50,000 price range. We are still considered to be in no mans land until a confirmation appears. The most likely scenario is sideways training and here is why: 1. FED actions to taken in consideration 2. Russia - Ukraine situation. Ukraine deciding not to follow their NATO membership ambitions is a positive step towards temporarily resolving the tense circumstances at the border. 3. The crypto ecosystem is technologically booming. A 12-24 months bearish crypto market does not represent the logical uptrend of the overall crypto world, unless external factors are significantly negative.
by UnknownUnicorn35305092
2
Bitcoin: Potential Wyckoff Distribution completedAlthough still continuing with an uptrend on the 4h chart, we now can see a clear Wyckoff Distrbution being completed for bitcoin which can be a signal for a significant upcoming drop. If this Wyckoff Distribution is confirmed with a drop within the next 24 hours, we can expect bitcoin price to go down and test support at ~39,000 mark. However, at this moment we are in no mans land for various reasons but specially because: 1. Wyckoff Distribution forming or complete, waiting for reaction 2. Potential golden cross between the 20 and 50 EMA forming in the upcoming hours. 3. Superbowl event is expected to have an effect as crypto commercials will take place which is a historical moment 4. Russia vs Ukraine geopolitical situation is one of the major factors to watch as any news regarding this can cancel all other signals. It is recommended for traders to refrain from any trades and observe a market trend shift.
by UnknownUnicorn35305092
BTC USD Nearing Resistance in the Daily TimeframeHere I show stepping stone re-distribution trading ranges for BTC USD in the daily timeframe. From Oct 20, 2021 to Dec 3, 2021, the BTC price was observed in a horizontal re-distribution trading range. The upper and lower boundaries of this trading range are given by the horizontal black dotted lines. The gray shaded areas show support and resistance zones. Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance, are given by the blue shading. The BTC price dropped down to a second, lower horizontal re-distribution trading range. The BTC price was observed in that trading range from Dec 4, 2021 through Jan 21, 2022. Although the BTC price recently has been trending up, it is not likely that the price will significantly exceed the upper bounds of the linear regression channel. The upper and lower bounds of the linear regression channel are given by the solid green and red lines, respectively. The solid black line is the midpoint of the linear regression channel. In this case, I expect the upper bound of the linear regression channel to act as strong resistance and the lower bound of the linear regression channel to act as strong support. Shown in the bottom panel is the Phoenix Ascending indicator, comprised of the green exponential moving average (EMA), red stochastic relative strength index (sRSI), blue least squared moving average (LSMA), and the grey energy (GE). The ideal short entry occurs when the red sRSI is on the downswing and is about to be contacted by a green EMA on the downswing. Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), automatic reaction (ARe), buying climax (BC), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), phase A (Ph A), phase B (Ph B), phase C (Ph C), phase D (Ph D), phase E (Ph E), secondary test (ST), selling climax (SC), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), upthrust action (UTA). This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Eightchains
15
US Equities in Wyckoff Phase B SOW Reaction Rally; Lower Soon!Read Wyckoff, heed the master. Having reached an ATH, big players prop up share prices in order to distribute their supply to retail investors (YOU!) at highest possible price. Tops take months to unwind, this one now going on for three months and probably gonna get one more massive bear flag rally after this selloff corrective structure completes. Pls read the phases below and visit the source document to study the pattern; once price enters Phase D it breaks below TR and the waterfall begins. It will get really really scary ugly then, a bottomless plunge. NB: Rally stalled exactly at the 0.62 Fibo on 1/12/22. Perfect retracement. Expect a measured move down to or near 4500 next week. Following the corrective structure another rally may ensue to a lower high in Feb. J Powell has already suggested the first rate hike might be in March, so holding rates at Jan meeting will likely spark another stupid pop. This would be a Wyckoff UTAD rally, these may or may not occur (see below). IMO we had UTAD from Santa Rally in December, tough to label these until the structure fully reveals, do expect a last squeeze before break. This is not investing advice, it's a notion. I'll give you free advice, worth every penny you pay for it: IF you're in the Market LONG, GTFO NOW!. IF you're not in the market, STFO and do not get Risk On! LOL Thereyago. Don't say I didn't tellya. Trade at ur own risk, GLTA! Wyckoff Abbs (source and a must read; school.stockcharts.com): TR—trading range PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: A UTAD MAY NOT OCCUR. Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and a secondary test (ST) of the BC, often upon diminished volume. However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume; less upward progress is made on each rally before significant supply emerges. In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, Phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, Phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top. Phase B: The function of Phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about Phase B in distribution are similar to those made for Phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside. Phase C: In distribution, Phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and, subsequently, sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move. Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY. Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, Phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR. Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble. Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
42
Bitcoin Wyckoff distributionA Five-Step Approach to the Market The Wyckoff Method involves a five-step approach to stock selection and trade entry, which can be summarized as follows: 1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Is the market consolidating or trending? Does your analysis of market structure, supply and demand indicate the direction that is likely in the near future? This assessment should help you decide whether to be in the market at all and, if so, whether to take long or short positions. Use both bar charts and Point and Figure charts of the major market indices for Step 1. 2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend. In an uptrend, select stocks that are stronger than the market. For instance, look for stocks that demonstrate greater percentage increases than the market during rallies and smaller decreases during reactions. In a downtrend, do the reverse – choose stocks that are weaker than the market. If you are not sure about a specific issue, drop it and move on to the next one. Use bar charts of individual stocks to compare with those of the most relevant market index for Step 2. 3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective. A critical component of Wyckoff's trade selection and management was his unique method of identifying price targets using Point and Figure (P&F) projections for both long and short trades. In Wyckoff's fundamental law of “Cause and Effect,” the horizontal P&F count within a trading range represents the cause, while the subsequent price movement represents the effect. Therefore, if you are planning to take long positions, choose stocks that are under accumulation or re-accumulation and have built a sufficient cause to satisfy your objective. Step 3 relies on the use of Point and Figure charts of individual stocks. 4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move. Apply the nine tests for buying or for selling (described below). For instance, in a trading range after a prolonged rally, does the evidence from the nine selling tests suggest that significant supply is entering the market and that a short position may be warranted? Or in an apparent accumulation trading range, do the nine buying tests indicate that supply has been successfully absorbed, as evidenced further by a low-volume spring and an even lower-volume test of that spring? Use bar charts and Point and Figure charts of individual stocks for Step 4. 5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index. Three-quarters or more of individual issues move in harmony with the general market, so you improve the odds of a successful trade by having the power of the overall market behind it. Specific Wyckoff principles help you anticipate potential market turns, including a change of character of price action (such as the largest down-bar on the highest volume after a long uptrend), as well as manifestations of Wyckoff's three laws (see below). Put your stop-loss in place and then trail it, as appropriate, until you close out the position. Use bar and Point and Figure charts for Step 5.
by cryptoTradingAnalytics
9
Russell 2K (IWM) showing Wyckoff Distribution?Richard Wyckoff theorized that one could understand the market and its movement through analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume, and time. According to Wyckoff, the market moves in cycles. First, there is a period of accumulation followed by a mark up period. Then there is a period of distribution followed by a mark down period. The cycle then repeats itself. Seeking to improve efficiency when trading, Wyckoff created the Wyckoff schematics which depict trading ranges of accumulation and distribution by smart money. In 2020, we saw a major market crash as COVID caused the world to shut down. Once the F.U.D. diminished, the Wyckoff accumulation cycle began and the Russell was quickly marked up in a matter of months. In 2021, the Russell has traded mostly sideways. Following Wyckoff's cycle, one could presume that this is the Wyckoff distribution pattern which can take up to a year to fulfill. The Wyckoff Distribution Pattern is split into phases. I have outlined each phase on the chart to provide clarity. The distribution is broken down as such: Phase A: The Preliminary Supply (PSY) is established. This is where big money begins to offload some of their accumulated position. It is bought up by retail traders and sent to new highs. Big money then offloads a larger portion of their position at the Buying Climax (BC). This causes a massive wave of selling as supply significantly outweighs demand. Panic selling ensues and stop losses are triggered. An Automatic Reaction (AR) occurs as the supply and demand balance out. The low of the AR and high of the BC establish a trading range for the rest of the distribution. Phase B: This phase consists of supply and demand testing. Buyers will attempt to reclaim the trend through upthrusts (UT) but big money meets this demand with more supply and sends shares back into the trading range. Big money will then perform secondary tests (ST) and look for signs of weakness (SOW) to assess the remaining supply and demand imbalances. This results in a long period of consolidation. Not that we should see low volume in the middle of the range and volume spikes toward the boundaries. Phase C (Optional): This phase is characterized as a false breakout. It is used to trick traders out of their positions so big money can offload more supply, sending shares lower in one final push. Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) Phase D: This phase will often illustrate a clear imbalance between supply and demand. Price will show large volume and price declines toward the lower boundary of the trading range. At this point, big money has little to no long position left and has likely initiated a short position. The market will begin to make a down-trending structure of lower highs and lower lows. I believe we are currently at this phase of the cycle. Phase E: The mark down period begins. There are several possible catalysts to trigger phase E. The most obvious is the anticipation of rate hikes from the Fed. From here, we will begin to look for the start of the next accumulation period. **It is important to note that the Wyckoff Distribution Pattern is only a model and that the chart wont match it perfectly. As long as the fundamental concepts of the model hold true, the pattern should work. I will be looking for short signals and confirmations via market structure and volume. Let me know your thoughts on this unusually long explanation. Happy trading!
AMEX:IWMShort
by Decam9
3
Bear claws taking a big swipeBeen some rough days for the bulls lately. I've update my Wyckoff trading channel. Friday's trading was very steep and high volume that may, just may indicate a selling climax. It is possible we get another low but I count 5 waves over the last several days which could indicate the finish of a C wave in this correction for an expanded flat or zigzag. Pure Elliot Wave has some nice Elliot wave assessments from Lara that are really helpful in keeping track of these trading channels. I placed a downward trading channel for this down movement but likely too steep for any significant value. Volume has been increasing for the most part over this bearish pattern and with Friday's candle closing on the low on high volume, still indicates bearish sentiment. Had that candle been green or a bigger tail on high volume, would indicate a turn towards upward movement I would think. This is information only and by no means implies any suggestions for trades. Trade at your own risk. Good luck.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HedgehogLanding
SPY Wyckoff DistributionI wanted to get this analysis out last week. But anyway Spy has been looking like BTC was when it topped out in April/May. It has been playing out the Wycoff Distribution on the daily along with bearish divergence on multiple time frame charts. We appear to be in phase D or starting Phase E. Spy has a target of 430. Key entries would have been that last retest of 473 or last retest of 465. Right now bounces should be shorted until the downtrend reverses. 450 is the next good looking short opportunity. I was short options since 458 yesterday and sold this morning at 443. Looking to re enter soon. I want 450, but I may wait to see how the market digests everything over the weekend. Any trades rn should proceed with caution. Today was options expiration and we are very volatile right now. Patience Pays. Good luck out there everyone
AMEX:SPYShort
by anamaly
TOTAL CRYTOCAP: Wyckoff schematic #1 & #2Among most indexes across the globe I have spotted a variation of both wyckoff distribution schemes on the total cryptocap. As I said in my previous analysis; the markets have run hot and in no way market makers, early investors and whales would consider a scenario of WAGMI. Market makers in crypto have learned a tough lesson during 2018 when bear markets could run hot - even for them. Another 3 years of bots, algorithms and machine learning have made them the perfect liquidity (or better said: liquidation) hunters amongst any market in the globe. This is not only because of their "brilliance and analytics" but more so; because they have one of the few retail dominated markets. Every dip should either be bought or diamond handed and every pump even more so. In fact, it is the mentality of the counterpart that made market makers record profits during 2020 and 2021. The expectations nothing less than a record breaking year for more profit. The machine learning machines that act as intelligent liquidity miners at the fraction of the cost of a Bitcoin mining farm printed new results; the slow bleed. The slow bleed has ever showed to be the best returning strategy to contain the crypto enthousiast. Downtrends come with a few phases: Phase 1: flash corrections retracting "the floor" that upholds the price of a coin Phase 2: a quick absorption of liquidity through a cascade of liquidations and stops Phase 3: a fast vectorized return to a higher floor downplaying the actual floor by a huge wick Phase 5: the local uptrend creating new hope; "the bottom is in" Phase 6: the vectorized liquidity chop absorbing the liquidity up and down in the new zone Phase 7: the short squeeze; "WAGMI" Rinse and repeat. The downfall of the bull market itself are in fact the bulls themselves with overleveraged longs or calls, overplaying their hand without a hedge towards the opposite direction, the direction of the market maker. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
15
Spring or continuation?I was a bit surprised at the upward movement but still maintained a correction sequence based on Elliot wave theory. I was counting that upward movement as a Wave 4 correction and came close to invalidation by overlapping Wave 1. Close but no cigar. I think we will finish up Wave 3 on overnight trading and into tomorrow's session with a nice correction and probably a short Wave 5 to finish up the "Spring" if the overall count is bullish. It's quite possible this is a start of a bigger correction that will last for quite a while.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HedgehogLanding
Gonna Bounce SoonBetter close ur shortz. Look at time and price patterns past two weeks. Down, down, Up; down, down....UP coming See SqMo get ready to turn see WT bending, RSI oversold, people say, gonna get more oversold! Maybe so, won't last much longer. Get ready for a big pop, a short-killer. When greedy put holders close out for loss the MMs can wind up their short futurz and BAM! Up she blows. (OFC you know when MM sells a put, they short the futures to cover it, right? When the put covers, they BUY the Futurz BACK... and up she goes) After the first lift on futurz covering, short sellers head for the exits and spark the next pop, and she goes, pop...pop...pop... you do not wanna be short here IMO. These pops are explosive and sudden, watch your puts melt in seconds! If you holding UVXY, watch it vaporize... Wyckoff UTAD possible, at least lift to the TL as shown, ~4680, then more distribution, eh. Probly gonna open lower and dig down a bit in AM. Watch for the pivot. 2-3 day rally incoming IMO
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DaddySawbucks
3
Wyckoff ConsolidationRiding the fence tonight providing a couple of options for price movement. This is looking like a really nice Wyckoff consolidation pattern but time will tell whether it is accumulation or distribution. The effort (ie volume) is in the red candles with increasing volume vs decreasing volume on consecutive green candles. Personally I think this is a massive accumulation range that will continue upward long term but for now will be sideways trading. Pricing is respecting channels so far so there are opportunities if you can handle any draw down. From an Elliot perspective, this is looking like an impulse wave and in the middle of Wave 3. Wave 1 was a big one so will see how this shakes out. Impulse waves are 5 wave patterns that can exist as Wave's 1 3 or 5 on impulse waves or Wave A and C on corrections. Personally I think we are in a Wave C correction going down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HedgehogLanding