TOTAL CRYTOCAP: Wyckoff schematic #1 & #2Among most indexes across the globe I have spotted a variation of both wyckoff distribution schemes on the total cryptocap. As I said in my previous analysis; the markets have run hot and in no way market makers, early investors and whales would consider a scenario of WAGMI.
Market makers in crypto have learned a tough lesson during 2018 when bear markets could run hot - even for them. Another 3 years of bots, algorithms and machine learning have made them the perfect liquidity (or better said: liquidation) hunters amongst any market in the globe. This is not only because of their "brilliance and analytics" but more so; because they have one of the few retail dominated markets. Every dip should either be bought or diamond handed and every pump even more so. In fact, it is the mentality of the counterpart that made market makers record profits during 2020 and 2021. The expectations nothing less than a record breaking year for more profit.
The machine learning machines that act as intelligent liquidity miners at the fraction of the cost of a Bitcoin mining farm printed new results; the slow bleed. The slow bleed has ever showed to be the best returning strategy to contain the crypto enthousiast. Downtrends come with a few phases:
Phase 1: flash corrections retracting "the floor" that upholds the price of a coin
Phase 2: a quick absorption of liquidity through a cascade of liquidations and stops
Phase 3: a fast vectorized return to a higher floor downplaying the actual floor by a huge wick
Phase 5: the local uptrend creating new hope; "the bottom is in"
Phase 6: the vectorized liquidity chop absorbing the liquidity up and down in the new zone
Phase 7: the short squeeze; "WAGMI"
Rinse and repeat.
The downfall of the bull market itself are in fact the bulls themselves with overleveraged longs or calls, overplaying their hand without a hedge towards the opposite direction, the direction of the market maker.
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Wyckoffdistribution
Spring or continuation?I was a bit surprised at the upward movement but still maintained a correction sequence based on Elliot wave theory. I was counting that upward movement as a Wave 4 correction and came close to invalidation by overlapping Wave 1. Close but no cigar. I think we will finish up Wave 3 on overnight trading and into tomorrow's session with a nice correction and probably a short Wave 5 to finish up the "Spring" if the overall count is bullish. It's quite possible this is a start of a bigger correction that will last for quite a while.
Gonna Bounce SoonBetter close ur shortz. Look at time and price patterns past two weeks. Down, down, Up; down, down....UP coming
See SqMo get ready to turn see WT bending, RSI oversold, people say, gonna get more oversold! Maybe so, won't last much longer.
Get ready for a big pop, a short-killer. When greedy put holders close out for loss the MMs can wind up their short futurz and BAM! Up she blows. (OFC you know when MM sells a put, they short the futures to cover it, right? When the put covers, they BUY the Futurz BACK... and up she goes)
After the first lift on futurz covering, short sellers head for the exits and spark the next pop, and she goes, pop...pop...pop... you do not wanna be short here IMO. These pops are explosive and sudden, watch your puts melt in seconds! If you holding UVXY, watch it vaporize...
Wyckoff UTAD possible, at least lift to the TL as shown, ~4680, then more distribution, eh. Probly gonna open lower and dig down a bit in AM.
Watch for the pivot. 2-3 day rally incoming IMO
Wyckoff ConsolidationRiding the fence tonight providing a couple of options for price movement. This is looking like a really nice Wyckoff consolidation pattern but time will tell whether it is accumulation or distribution. The effort (ie volume) is in the red candles with increasing volume vs decreasing volume on consecutive green candles. Personally I think this is a massive accumulation range that will continue upward long term but for now will be sideways trading. Pricing is respecting channels so far so there are opportunities if you can handle any draw down. From an Elliot perspective, this is looking like an impulse wave and in the middle of Wave 3. Wave 1 was a big one so will see how this shakes out. Impulse waves are 5 wave patterns that can exist as Wave's 1 3 or 5 on impulse waves or Wave A and C on corrections. Personally I think we are in a Wave C correction going down.
Continuation of Trading ChannelUpdate on Wyckoff Trading channel that I've been publishing for a while now. There looks to be at least a couple of other channels based on resistance and support lines and have those indicated on the chart. Today's price action bounced off one of the channels. Large down moves continue on higher volume which to me indicates a bearish bias to the current distribution pattern.
XAUUSD Wyckoff Distribution - In progressPrice has left the TR and currently testing support. Expecting this rally to fail and continue onto price objectives highlighted in previous idea linked.
I hope you found this idea useful, do leave your thoughts in a comment below.
As always, a 'like' and 'follow' provides encouragement to share further ideas.
Thank you for taking the time.
BeyondEdge
Your Edge Is Your Perception. Go Beyond.
DKNG: another bounce candidate?DKNG :
Some pros and cons to play a potential bounce.
--Big Wyckoff distribution on weekly and daily.
++ Hammer candlestick on weekly (indicating bullish reversal if next candle confirms it, i.e.we get follow through)
++ Bullish RSI divergence on daily (that you can't see on my weekly chart)
Since I like the set up I will look for an entry today, but only for a swing trade (maybe 1 or 2 weeks max ). My target is around 33-35 .
Be careful below 27.
Trade safe!
TRADE WITH ME WYCKOFF RE-DISTRIBUTION AUDJPYWe've seen that AUDJPY, has been on a downtrend since the start of November, prior to that downtrend, AUDJPY, had a distribution phase forming at the top. Price has dropped ever since then and is now doing a correction, I believe we're in a re-distribution where after a prolong downtrend, the CO, has taken a pause to collect more orders before heading down.
Now we're just at the start of phase, so many things can happen from here on out however, I can't help but notice since our PSY, volume has been dropping ever so slightly, indicating substantial buying from the correction has come to end.
We've then had a buying climax where the CO has absorbed all buying orders and quickly shifted back down, causing a bull trap on later buyers. Since the CO has absorbed the buyers and trapped them, in addition to volume decreasing, buying pressure is no longer valid so sellers enter once more and tries to push the market down until they've got exhausted and created an AR. Now we have our trading range for AUDJPY and await our secondary test. From here we play the waiting game.
Thanks for reading any comments or questions post them below
IssaLJ,
US100 ViewChart is shared only for the study purpose.
US100 started sell off from high level as expected. Now lets look for sell in every raise.
Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution improved with FibonacciI started trading crypto and bitcoin back in July in 2021 when I started studying Wyckoff distribution patterns and found this 3 day wyckoff pattern.
Bitcoin 1st Peaked when Robinhood & Coinbase IPOd back on March/April of 2021.
Followed by a 2nd Peak when Bitcoin ETF IPOd back in October
Bitcoin began to sell off hard after a Coinbase hack that put them offline for several hours/days in late October.
This updated the original Wyckoff Distribution Pattern and decided to redo it using Fibonacci Time Zone, Retracements & Trend Based Extensions.
What’s interesting about these patterns is they all coincide with each other and major events in financial and world events.
Take the starting point of the Oct 03, 2020 is around the time Robinhood became popular.
The PSY peak is right at insurrection on Jan 6th 2021
The bounce off PSY 0.382 retracement as Gamestop and Dogecoin took flight in main stream media.
These events set the stage for the entire first Wykoff Phase A as we see BC reach the 1 extension and ST reach the 1.272 extension.
These are upward trend retracement and extension.
To Find SOW in phase B I will be looking to find downward trend retracements and extensions in a following update for the GME anniversary.
If you follow any of my stock market macro, you will see BTC is closely correlated to major indexes which I plan on researching more closely in the coming weeks.
As we approach a major selloff in indexes on Jan 19th OPEX.
We find ourselves ending phase A on the eve of Gamestop's 1st anniversary.
Trade Safe!
As always, I’ll be back
Bearish on BTC with a potential Last Point of Supply in ProcessAt the moment, I'm calling for a fall on BTC to a new support level at potentially $40,000.
The current range has formed a descending triangle in what I am seeing as a re-distribution trading range.
Noted a few things observed on my chart
*The volume spikes during the development of the TR. Both exhibited bullish behavior that eventually fizzled out into the resistance levels. No commitment above. Transfer of stock to weak hands?
*Currently at the support level and showing near no demand agressivness like what has seen before off this level
A thing to keep in mind: if we break this level, a quick fall is likely which could be our true spring and thus change the outcome of this TR. If demand cannot come in though we will be in real trouble. There are many things that exist outside of the chart on a macro level that I find hard to ignore in terms of a possible bear market. Omicron, Evergrande, Gov Debt, Huge Asset Bubbles; these are all risks to stability in the markets and can quickly generate fear and in turn, people will leave risky assets or assets that appear to be drastically over valued.