XAUUSD | Market outlook Gold prices are showing moderate growth during the morning session, returning to an uptrend after multidirectional dynamics the day before, which did not allow XAU/USD to consolidate at new local highs since August 6. The instrument was pressured yesterday by the massive growth of USD across the entire spectrum of the market in response to increased alarming sentiment regarding the new strain of coronavirus. The strengthening of USD was not prevented by the weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA on the dynamics of retail sales, which only contributed to the risk-aversion of investors. Additional pressure on gold quotes was exerted by a decrease in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which renewed their two-week lows the day before.
Wyckoffdistribution
EURAUD - SHORT - WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION AND DAILY SUPPLY ZONEEUR/AUD looks bearish on the Daily timeframe, when scaling down on the 4hr timeframe you can see the potential for a Wyckoff Distribution occurring. It looks as though we are entering Phase C of the Distribution and the potential for a UTAD to form.
Further confluence is found in the long term downward channel, a false breakout would tie into the Wyckoff analysis. At the top end of the channel resistance is a strong Daily supply zone (in yellow). This occurs near the 61.8% Fibo so provides further confluence.
I would look for price action confirmation either within the Supply zone or near the top of the channel, both would be taken as the UTAD formation and I would then initiate a short trade.
READY TO SHORT SILVERSilver might see a sell in coming weeks after price breaking the 24 usd recent lower low. This may signify a break of market structure forming what would be supposedly be a major sign of weakness. It would be quite nice if we see a retracement to the upside until 27.750 level before going down. Once that level holds we can be sure of an impulsive down trend
AUDUSD - SHORTAUDUSD is on the way to hit weekly demand zone. It's clearly shows that AUDUSD is making distribution.
I am sharing this post now & I'll update the trade setup after getting some of my personal confirmation. if you want further info, don't hesitate to ask me.
Text me in Tradingview.
Thank you.!
Time to Dump BTCHello Traders!
BTC was strong bearish today but now it is losing the strength as it has formed a J pattern and There is a pattern at the top which means it is ready to crash hard.
BTC previously has formed Wyckoff's Distribution pattern and it dropped after that and I also gave a sniper Entry for Buyers which worked Perfectly.
It will move now with Lower High Lower Low formation.
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CHZUSDT Sell: Wyckoff's DistributionHello Traders!
The market was strong Bullish but it looks like it is at its peak.
CHZ has formed Wyckoff's DIstribution pattern and now it's at the peak which is Called Utad. Every UTAD forms some kind of pattern and it is now forming a pattern that will push it downside to Test the AR level.
Stoploss is 6% of the investment and the target is 16% of the investment.
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distribution price cycleThe distribution phase is the third stage of the cycle and it is where the bears are attempting to regain
authority over the market
The price action on this chart at this stage is flat. One indication that the market is in the distribution
phase will be the sustained failure of price to create higher lows/bottoms on the chart.
The price action begins to create Lower tops which is a sign that the market is experiencing a sell off
When trading stocks during this phase the composite operators are selling the shares they own.
Smart Money Concepts Diagram With Wyckoff SchematicsThis is a Smart Money Concepts Diagram With Labeled Wyckoff Accumulation And Distribution Schematics.
These are the main smart money trade setups that you will find in your charts, this is how smart money (big banks, funds, composite man, etc.) manipulate markets to engineer liquidity.
Wyckoff methods teach a bigger picture view of the markets and why they are moving, many times you will see smart money setups inside of bigger picture Wyckoff schematics that form certain parts of the schematic itself.
I hope you find this to be a useful reference diagram for Smart Money trade setups 😁
If you have any questions please comment below and I can make updates to the F.A.Q.
EURUSD | Market outlook EUR shows mixed trading dynamics against USD during the Asian session, consolidating after a strong decline last Friday, which was due to the publication of a strong report on the US labor market for July. EUR continues to trade near the local lows since April 5, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. However, today there will be few interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US and Europe, and therefore the "bearish" trend can be further developed. Anyway, the data released in the United States reflected an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls in July by 943K after an increase of 938K in June. Analysts predicted a decrease to 870K. The Unemployment Rate in July fell sharply from 5.9% to 5.4%, while investors had expected a decline to only 5.7%.
BTC Update - It was An Accumulation all along, SOSMy mistake was not noticing the glitches in the futures,
I’ll be honest, it’s not the strongst Accumulation I’ve ever seen, and also it was a tricky range, I thought it was a distribution until the very end, but noticing the strong bull movement in the end made me to check again the chart and see the change of character in the end.
BTC Pullback? What a run for Bitcoin the last couple days! Really loving in.
But as we just created a higher high, took out some of that buy side liquidity and starting to see some distribution at these highs on seconds charts, I have set an aggressive low-risk entry to take back some of that liquidity that was formed on that massive push up.
Normally I would like to see more confirmation before entering a trade but I have this feeling that this may be a quick move down, even if Bitcoin looks bullish as hell right now. But like I said, low risk trade to see if this plays out.
Looking to see Bitcoin come down in the coming days to grab some of that downside liquidity around $38.5k before the next push up.
Regardless as this is a risk trade, I will set break-even on this trade as soon as it breaks some structure to the downside, if it does.
If this gets stopped out, I will reevaluate and potentially look to reenter, assuming it doesn't shoot up from here.
Gold prices under pressure | Market outlookGold prices show a rather active decline during the Asian session, developing a "bearish" signal formed the day before, when the instrument was pressured by the growth of US Treasury bond yields and expectations of a tougher position of the US Federal Reserve on the reduction of existing stimuli. At the same time, gold ignored the fact of the decline in USD, which is awaiting the publication of Friday's labor market report for July. Among other things, analysts expect an increase in new jobs in the non-agricultural sector by 870K after an increase of 850K in June. The unemployment rate in the country may fall from 5.9% to 5.7%, which may be a signal for the regulator to start reducing the existing incentives.
W facing headwinds with goods spending decliningW is facing serious headwinds with spending on goods declining rapidly as the economy opens up and services come back. Price action on W over the last few months has formed an almost perfect Wyckoff distribution pattern. We are now in Phase E, and there is a long way down.
USDCAD | Market outlookThe Canadian dollar weakened slightly against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, but ended a volatile week higher as investor sentiment improved and a preliminary estimate showed Canadian retail sales rebounding in June. CAD weakened 0.1% per greenback. For the week, the Canadian currency gained 0.3%, after three straight weekly declines. Canadian retail sales dropped 2.1% in May from April, Statistics Canada said, less than a 3.0% decline forecast by economists.
We will likely see bearish trend continuation in the following sessions. It's recommended to sell on the rallies.
BTC Wyckoff Distribution. Are we sure the pattern is complete?Short-Med term bearish, long term bullish ( i believe this cycle still has to finish correcting before we can start accumulating foe the next one).
Just my own opinion but I'm seeing that everyone is all bullish because we've just had a pump, & people are now thinking we're in the Wyckof Accumulation phase.. Are we forgetting that the Wyckoff Distribution has 2 big tests on either side & all look rather symmetrical? The one earlier was not big enough to be that, & the leg down not long enough. You couldn't call that one a "Fakeout test", it was just a re-test. Wyckoff Distributions commonly have a last big Fakeout to exhaust more retail supply & induce one more big shorting opportunity before coming down to consolidation & accumulation phase. Are we forgetting too that sub 50% is a cycle correction? Most parabolic pumps correct 60-80% before accumulation, both in micro & macro. 2017 ATH corrected 81% before finally ending correction late 2018. This has happened alot quicker, & there is more institutional money this time so i wouldn't expect an identical correction but we have to expect that an end of cycle is generally more than 55%. So i feel that this isnt done yet, this is a test, & the Wyckoff pattern & head & shoulders still has to compete before the next cycle can begin.
Another thing i would add is ive been following the chart with a Fib Spiral since just early January, just after the retest down after the first big test. The same pattern that forms waves, clouds etc. By the time we got to Wave no 3 i noticed the wave peaks were plateauing out, in line with the shape of the spiral. I had a big feeling Wave no4, 64k was the peak but i didn't trust my own judgement cos im still learning. But by the time we got to Wave no5 i realised that the bigger wave, the whole cycle, was about to break. So i cashed everything to stables & ultimately avoided a whole lot of pain. So given the whole cycle seems to be shaped by the spiral, the fact that the first big test up, on the upside, & the recent big test up on the downside, are almost identically opposite each other at around the same price level, rings major alarm bells for me. They look far too symmetrical to me to be a mere coincidence, & remember symmetry is such a common thread in chart patterns, head & shoulders/double bottoms/double tops ect. So i think there's a high chance we haven't finished our correction from ATH yet. there's too much adoption & fundamentals now for it to be a full 80% correction like 2017, but i think 65% is highly likely.
We also have to take into account the fact the announcement just after NY trading hours finished, on monday, the same day of the biggest buying volumes in months, that Tether is being taken to court by the DOJ over fraud, something they will have a harder time defending than Ripple over the SEC. So its highly likely that the sudden trading volume was Tether insiders & Bitfinex hurredly offloading Tether for BTC in advance o the announcement. Given how much Wyckoff activity is all market insiders i find the coincidence between the pump & the announcement on the same day very suspicious. So again, another reason to believe that this "Breakout" is a fakeout & not a trend.
Tread carefully.. But of course the much bigger picture, across cycles is still up.. 2017 ATH corrected 81% & then the next ATH was 13-14x that. So if we repeat the pattern then the next ATH is about 260k. But i dnt believe that will happen for another year. And the sooner we finish correcting, the sooner we can start accumulating, & the cheaper the buying will be.. Tread carefully, don't FOMO in, wait a little to see what happens. I'm certain this correction isn't finished yet..
Take care & look after yourselves :)
Distribution Schematic #1 WyckoffFrom what I see; BTC if following the Wyckoff Distribution #1 chart. Where we are in close to the end of the Last point of supply and begin our decent downward to our Sign of Weakness and begin our Accumulation phase. Educated guess that the Selling Climax(SC) in the accumulation schematic will be around and/or below 18K.