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Wyckoffdistribution

BTC: A Strong Case for Wyckoff Distribution - 2020This is literally textbook Wyckoff Distribution. I urge you to make your own decisions and google "Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1." Compare what I've charted to the classic schematic. They are nearly identical. In other words: we are headed down. Significantly and severely down. Good luck! See you for The Great Bull Run in 2021-23. And beware: "...a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move. Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after an UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the "smart money" repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY."
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by waterslide
8
EURUSD Accumulation According to Wyckoff Theory - In Phase CI've been studying Wyckoff's Smart Money Theory for a while. And after staring at the EURUSD chart it almost looks picture perfect to a Wyckoff accumulation chart. If there are any other Wyckoff students out there, please let me know what you think. I just made a play on the operator candle (The long play box is in the chart) )as this should go long right now according to his theory and just now having the second "Spring" on the chart. Would like to see if anyone else has a Wyckoff chart draw up for EURUSD? We've hit the Buyers climax, had the Automatic Reaction, the Up Thrust, two tests on the support line. Then the Up Thrust After Distribution (That's the signal that you're in phase C), then the Springs. Now we just need the jump across the creek. What does anyone else thinl? Thanks
Long
by BodiesXWix
Bitcoin: Wyckoff Distribution Theory Explained 1H (Aug. 14)X Force Global Analysis: If you find our analyses to be helpful, make sure to support us by dropping a ‘like’ In this analysis, we explore Bitcoin's hourly chart through the Wyckoff Distribution Theory. Readers can refer to our previous Wyckoffian cycle theory below: Analysis - Wyckoff’s theory is guided by the fact that every change in the market is made up of waves of buying and selling that will go on as long as they can attract a following. Essentially, it's about understanding supply and demand at overbought and oversold regions for a breakout or a break down. - Distribution is the process of distributing (selling) an asset at the desired (best) price over a time period. - This is the direct opposite of accumulation where the market participants are looking to secure an asset at the lowest possible cost. - Typically we see periods of distribution after uptrends. - Distribution happens when an equilibrium has been reached in price after an uptrend, where price stalls and begins to form a range. - After an uptrend we’d look for signs of distribution or reaccumulation. Terminology - PSY (preliminary supply): This is where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. - BC (buying climax): This is the point during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. - AR (automatic reaction): With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. - ST (secondary test): The point in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. - SOW (sign of weakness): A point observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of Bitcoin; supply is now dominant. - LPSY (last point of supply): After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. - UTAD (upthrust after distribution): A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Market Sentiment: Long short ratios remain dominantly bullish at 69 to 31. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 75, Greed. What We Believe Based on the Wyckoffian Distribution Schematic and the confirmation provided by the trading volume, we believe that a retest of 10.5k is highly likely to take place, especially given that Bitcoin has broken down from its rising wedge structure. Let us know what you think in the comment section below Trade Safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
14
NAS100 - TOP ALERT - Bearish Scenario / 50% GAINS !!!-NEW author on TradingView -2+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering crypto/US stocks NAS 100 1h: BEST level to SHORT 50% gains (SL/TP)(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: NAS 100 1h chart review / outlook ::: bounce imminent right now ::: likely setting up for a bigger move downwards to complete the expanding triangle ::: however short-term I recommend to focus ::: on selling HIGH from confirmed resistance ::: Bearisch Scenario plays out if there is now follow through till US Elections in November ::: key resistance: 10900-11000 USD ::: key support level: 9800 USD ::: recommended strategy: SHORT IT 10900 USD ::: SL 11100 USD TP 9800 USD ::: good luck traders
FX:NAS100Short
by plukits
FKLI - possible mark down after distribution phase?Hi, It seems like FKLI had a possible Wyckoff distribution phase below the horizontal line A, which was a major resistant line from end of 2019. Price had been in a trading range between the high at point 1 (possible buying climax) and the low at point 2 (possible Automatic reaction according to Wyckoff distribution schematic). Point 3 could be an upthrust and we saw price dropped in strong move down to point 4. This move from point 3 to 4 could be the Sign of Weakness according to Wyckoff schematic. Then from point 4 price rallied slowly to the current price , which could form the "Last Point Of Supply", before price mark down further. Looking at the volumes, the volume was increasing during the downmove from point 3 to 4, and the recent rally from point 4 is associated with decreasing volume. This is just my observation based on my current understanding of Wyckoff method, and honestly I'm still very new at this. Please do not take this as a signal, and any comments/feedbacks are much welcomed.
MYX:FKLI1!Short
by Forever_Learner
Bitcoin Perfect Wyckoff Distribution. Watch for dump...This post will highlight Bitcoin's long term price action to the Wyckoff Distribution schematic. At the end I will establish numerous trading opportunities to prepare fro the dump... Before I explain the near-perfect similarities to Wyckoff Distribution, click the link below to see an image of the phases of Wyckoff Distribution. View this image and then Bitcoin back and forth to compare each phase. Wyckoff Distribution Image: www.dropbox.com I posted this chart on July 9th calling the rise to new local highs, in accordance with Wyckoff Distribution. We pumped, now get ready to dump. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is burning red hot around 10500. It shattered the resistance (R1( from the Buying Climax in Phase A. It also shattered resistance (R2) from UT, the Upthrust. This is all part of Phase C where new local highs are made. We are completing Phase C as we speak. 10900 is a noticeable resistance from July & September 2019! Unfortunately, this leads to Phase D where the "Last Signs of Strength" retest each resistance we faced in Phases A/B as support... Trade Opportunities for Phases D & E 1. SHORT 10900 to 10000, where we will retest R1 & R2 as resistance once again. 2. Potential LONG scalp from Buying Climax (R1) @ 10000 to UT (R2) @ 10500 3. SHORT 10000 to 9300 where first "Last Sign of Strength" will retest S/R area from the middle of the distribution range 4. Potential LONG scalp from 9300 to ~9600 where first "Last Sign of Strength" retests S/R area as resistance 5. SHORT 9600 resistance to 8600 Preliminary Support from Phase A 6. Potential LONG scalp from 8600 to 8900 where support from June's downtrend will be retested as resistance 7. SHORT 8700-8900 to 7800 where Bitcoin found temporary support in its dump on March 10-13 8. Potential LONG scalp from 7800 to 8100 to retest the support established by "Automatic Retrace" in Phase A as resistance 9. SHORT 8100 to 7500 to resistance major S/R from the early days after the crash If you've made it this far, thank you for reading. I will see you all on the Bitcoin rocket ride to the moon. #Halving2020
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by Riester
1
Bitcoin Enters Wycoff Phase E After Breaking Support at $9,120.0Happy Thursday. Today the Technical Analysis will be confined to the 15 Minute Intraday chart. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation printed a Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW) on a breakdown with conviction through the lower line of support at the $9,120.00 price handle to $9,020.00, before reversing direction and printing a lower high at $9,140.00. Since the PA has reversed direction after printing the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), it has failed to break out with conviction above the lower line of support at the $9,120.00 price handle, tapping out at $9,140.00. This PA signals the formation has entered Phase E of a Wyckoff Distribution and major move down (a Selling Climax) is imminent. The cause from consolidation suggests a target price of $8,660.00, should the cause fully exhaust itself in this distribution. Typically, a Selling Climax will exhaust itself in 2 – 3 legs during the Selling Climax (SC) over the final phase of distribution, providing additional Last Points of Supply (LPSY) during the breakdown. The key price to watch for on the 15M Chart is $9,020.00. A price of $9,000.00 would signal a sell and a price of $8,980.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,660.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Summary/My Trade Plan Given the formation is has just confirmed entry into Phase E, a Selling Climax to $8,660.00 is imminent. The plan is to Layer in Short Positions above $9,100.00 (Ideally $9,120.00) on the retest of the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) before the formation moves wholesale into the anticipated Selling Climax (SC). The current Target Price would be $8,660.00. Once shorts have been layered in, sells should be layered in starting at $8,680.00 through $8,660.00. Stoplosses should be placed in the $9,230.00 region. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
7
Bitcoin Eyes Breaking Lower Support at $9,120 for Phase E MoveHappy Sunday. The concept of money has always fascinated me. If you ever find yourself in the Colorado Springs area, be sure to check out the American Numismatic Association Money Museum . It is probably one of the most comprehensive histories of currency in the United States. Lately I’ve been somewhat sucked into a piece I’m writing about Blockchain and Gresham’s Law give some of the fundamental analysis I’ve been doing more recently. Once I get it finished and published, I will include a link in the next TA update. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation has just completed a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation (trade range established between $9,340.00 and $9,120.00) and has started to move into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has potential to flip to Bearish Bias from Bullish Bias if trendline support is broken. With Phase B underway, the most likely course of action is PA riding the trendline until after forming the typical Upward Thrust (UT) in Wyckoff Phase B - possibly to the mid $9,300s (I don’t feel the PA will not move past $9,400.00). After the Upward Thrust (UT), I would expect the bias to flip as trend line support should break. One key price to watch for on the 15M Chart is $9,120.00. The lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has just completed a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation (trade range established between $9,340.00 and $9,120.00) and has started to move into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has completed a Secondary Test (ST) of resistance at the $9,340.00 price handle and establish the trade range. One key price to watch for on the 4H Chart is $9,280.00. A break above this trendline resistance will both signal a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) – potentially to the $9,400.00 price handle - is underway and flip the bias to bullish from bearish. Also, the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. On 1D chart, the formation appears to be at the tail end of a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution, printing a series of Last Points of Supply (LPSY) in rapid succession before moving into Phase E and a Selling Climax (SC). The formation is currently printing a green candle with a high at $9,340.00 and a low at $9,140.00. The key price to watch for on the 1D Chart is $9,240.00 (since the prior close was $9,300). A daily close above $9,240.00 guarantees the candle remains green, otherwise we move into a column of O’s, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Also, the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Crypto Market Capitalization and Bitcoin Dominance Lately I have started to include some ore fundamental analysis into my TA to get a better sense of the fundamental trends within the cryptocurrency market in total. The results were eye-opening. The total Market Capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has declined 41.8 percent on a continuous, unbroken decline since February 17, 2018. The chart suggests the pace of new capital entering the crypto market is being eclipsed by existing capital exiting the crypto market for just over two years now. It would explain why the recent PA rally to the $10,420.00 price handle had all the TA hallmarks of a blow off top. Also, Bitcoin Dominance has declined 5.31 percent on a continuous, unbroken decline since September 5, 2019. The decline in dominance was from 72.79 percent of the Cryptocurrency Market Cap to the recent local high of 68.92 percent of the Cryptocurrency Market Cap. The recent breakdown from that local high in the recent period is significant as well. The chart seems to suggest Market Capitalization is currently flowing from Bitcoin into Altcoins, potentially signaling “Alt Season” is in full swing. Interesting sidebar - Bitcoin remains range bound, with shrinking overall cryptocurrency market capitalization and shrinking Bitcoin dominance. This leaves the overall impression Institutions and larger players are filling Altcoin buy orders for Bitcoin and distributing those Bitcoins on the open marketplace for fiat, while incurring minimal slippage. Summary/My Trade Plan Across all Bitcoin Charts (1D, 4H & 15M), the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress. Given the formation is currently in the tail end of a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution (printing a series of Last Points of Supply) and the lower boundary of support is the same across all time frames, it would suggest a Selling Climax (SC) of significant magnitude is imminent. The Wyckoff Phase B Accumulation (which is currently underway) always presents an Upward Thrust (UT) near or above resistance. This provides an excellent opportunity for a scalp long or an opportunity to layer in short positions. Wyckoff Phase C provides similar opportunities with Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) which are common throughout that Phase. The plan is to Layer in Short Positions above $9,300.00 on the Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) and Phase C Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD). The current Target Price would be $8,640.00. The Target Price will be refined as the formation moves into Phase C and Phase D depending upon the cause consolidated into the formation. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
XAUUSD SELL: Wyckoff's Distribution Schemetic # 2Hello Traders! This will be a very nice Time to make Huge From Gold. First of all Please Hit the Like Button For my Valuable Analysis and for my Hard work and share your thoughts in comment. There are two scenarios expected from Gold 1. Gold must close below 1789 to confirm the sell entry. Our Target will be 1660 2. If Monday Fail to close below 1789 Then Expect a buy In Gold and Target will be 1825. Wait for my confirmation for this trade or if you have a trade plan in this scenario so you can go for it.. The rare scenario is Market can close exactly @1789. It will be very tricky and we will not trade in any direction and i will wait for other sign to enter the trade for next week. In my Previous analysis i posted sell entry with Target 1788.60, This is still Valid. According to one my my strategy it will hit 1788.60. My strategy Give Exact Figure of Target and retracement Level with very high accuracy.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Aadil1000x
13
Wyckoff Says USDJPY will DropThe Wyckoff Smart Money Schamtic has played out on the 4 hour time frame throughout last week. And in the C stage of the Schematic, it is once again playing out in the 1 hour time from. The Upthrust after distribution has now turned into the new Buyers Climax. And you now have more new tests of lows and highs within a range with a new Upthrust on the 1 hour time frame. Looks like we need a Show of Weakness and then a test on the UTAD, 1 test away from wicking a sponsor candle for a 200 pip loss. Give it a few hours and that bullish sponsor will show it's face. Enter on the entry of that candle for a sell and Watch it ride. Any Smart Money traders have any input as to what else I should be looking at in this schematic? Any input from a Smart Money trader would be greatly appreciated.
Short
by BodiesXWix
The Wyckoff Distribution Method Study on BitcoinEvening Traders, In Today’s Analysis I am going to focus on the Wyckoff Distribution theory on Bitcoin's current Price Action, the similarities are striking and I do believe we are in Phase D, approaching Phase E. Firstly I’ll list the acronyms for your reference: - PSY (Preliminary Supply) – First bull impulses in the range - BC (Buying Climax) – Volume Climax - AR (Automatic Reaction) – Strong buy pressure - ST (Secondary Test) – Bearish Retest of Structure - SOW (Show of Weakness) – Bearish Price Action - LPSY (Last Point of Supply) – Consecutive lower highs - UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) – Usually a Bull Trap/ Liquidity Grab There are 3 LAW's to adhere to in Wyckoff’s Theory; 1. The law of Supply and Demand 2. The law of Cause and Affect 3. The law of Effort The Law of Supply and Demand; - When Demand is greater than Supply, price increases, this is evident in Phase A of Bitcoin's Price Action. - When Supply is greater than Demand, price falls, Phase D reflects this in Bitcoin’s current Market Structure. The Law of Cause and Affect; - Creates clear price boundaries that set objectives, these are essentially the Support and Resistance levels of the Trading Range. Evident in Bitcoin, (Blue Support and Resistance lines), price bounces between these pivots as distribution occurs. The Law of Effort - Used to indicate momentum shifts,( institutions offloading their holdings), price tends to be weak with consecutive lower highs as supply takes over, (Phase D and E). - Divergences between Volume and Price coincide with the market direction as a whole, evident in Bitcoin as volume continues to decline in Phase D. Moving on to the technical aspect keeping these laws in mind will better help understand the chart. Phase A: - PSY (Preliminary Supply) – First bull impulses in the range expand on Bitcoin and Price Action widens, this is an early indication of momentum shifting from the Parabola. - BC (Buying Climax) – Essentially a volume climax in Phase A that marks the temporary top of the uptrend. - SC (Secondary Test) – Bearish Retest of the structure, Bitcoin makes an attempt to take out recent highs but fails and rolls over into the next Phase. Phase B: - UT (Up-Thrust) – A swing high failure, the price of Bitcoin fails to establish a high and does not close above resistance. - SOW (Show of weakness) – Bearish Price Action, Bitcoin’s price essentially starts to show weakness as the law of cause and affect takes over. Sign that Supply is starting to take over the market. Phase C: - UTAD (Uptrend after Distribution) – Essentially a liquidity grab/ bull trap which takes place at a key level in phase C. Bitcoin establishes this by failing to close above $10,428, trapping long buyers before an impulse down. Phase D: - LPSY (Last Points of Supply) – Consecutive lower highs is the characteristics in this Phase. Bitcoin’s Price Action fails to rally as Supply starts to overweight Demand. Buyer Exhaustion is evident here as price starts to roll over into Phase E. Phase E: - Price is in control by Supply and continues with consecutive lower highs. Show of weakness is great in this phase; taking out the lower boundary of distribution usually proceeds with a significant bear rally. If Bitcoin holds current projection (lower highs), a test of the lower boundary will be the pivot point – Completion of the Wyckoff study. This theory helps understand the distribution and accumulation process of the market as whole, certain objectives have to be met in order to validate the study. Bitcoins market structure has been in synch with the theory thus far, if weakness continues to show in phase D and E, the probability of taking out the lower boundary will increase. An important takeaway from this theory is to understand the relationship between Demand and Supply. The dynamics between Demand and Supply is what moves the overall market, usually in accordance to the objectives of larger institutions (Smart Money). The Wyckoff’s theory helps largely in identifying these shifts in momentum where retail investors can position themselves in accordance to smart money. Hope you learnt something new in this analysis! Thank you for following my work And remember, “The Tape Reader’s profits should develop naturally. He should buy or sell because it is the thing to do – not because he wants to make a profit or fears to make a loss” ― Richard D. Wyckoff
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
56
Bitcoin Life in the Phase D Wyckoff Dist at Options ExpiryHappy Friday Bitcoin Options Market with approximately $1 Billion in Options expire today, so it should be a bumpy ride. Today, the TA analysis will be confined to both the Intradays (4H and 15M). With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation recently dropped beneath the key support line turned resistance at $9,240.00 and appears to be exhausting demand towards the lower end of support, which is expected in Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution. A key point to keep an eye on with the 15M Intraday, is the formation is beginning to follow a typical Wyckoff Accumulation pattern (Shakeout and Spring are both appearing in this consolidation). The pattern appears set to breach the trendline resistance, suggesting a flip to bullish bias on the 15M Intraday. Given today is Options Expiry Day, and the amount outstanding is material ($1 Billion), it would be wise to keep a very close eye on this formation in the event something out of the ordinary happens (such as Upward Thrust After Distribution in Phase D). An Upthrust above $9,240 which breaks $9,320.00 here would be a red flag and cause for concern. I would expect another strong move or cluster of moves to push PA down into the $8,900.00 price region in the near future to exhaust all remaining demand in that region, test/break the lower end of support at $8,900.00, and transition into Phase E for a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the upper end of PA has shifted down from the $9,320.00 price handle to the $9,240 price handle, and the lower end of PA has been tracking the Bearish Line of Support formed from an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. The PA suggests the formation has finished exhausting demand at the $9,300.00 price handle. It exited on a PA drop through the Bearish Line of Support which printed a Sign of Weakness (SOW) at the $9,080.00 price handle and has remained constrained below the key line of support turned resistance at the $9,240.00 price handle. Much like my earlier analysis in the $9,600 region and the $9,300 region, I would expect the formation to print another green candle (potentially two), as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E and a final Selling Climax (SC). Summary/My Trade Plan Short positions should have been taken within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 zone, the $9,400.00 - $9,300.00 zone, and the $9,300.00 - $9,200.00 zone. Given the appearance of an accumulation pattern in the $9,240.00 – $9,100.00 with potential to break trend line resistance on the 15M Intraday looming, it suggests adding more to short positions at this time is unwise – better to allow this formation to resolve first before seeking to add more short positions or ride with the current positions held. The Target Price for the Selling Climax (SC) would be $8,020.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation during this Wyckoff Phase D). Covering short positions should begin at or near the $8,300.00 price handle, layer covers through $8,020.00, and reserve approximately 15% for a potential blow off bottom/bottom sell. Stops currently at the $9,470.00 price handle should be shifted downward to the $9,365.00 price handle. The split should be a 50% of the total position at $9,470.00 and 50% of the total position at $9,365.00 to safeguard against an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which could fall back into the trade range. While uncharacteristic for Phase D, given the appearance of an accumulation on the 15M Intraday and Options Expiration today, prudence is wise here. At the Selling Climax (SC), a scalp long should present itself off the Automatic Reaction (AR) from the Selling Climax (SC) once the Low Pole Reversal Confirms – potentially somewhere in the $7,900 - $7,700 region. This would also be an excellent place for long term cold storage buys. Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, sell off any scalp long buys immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
4
BTC Continues Phase D Wyckoff Dist Targeting a Break of $8.9kHappy Thursday. Tomorrow appears to be a massive day in the Bitcoin Options Market with approximately $1 Billion in Options set to expire. Bitcoin Options Market Faces Record $1 Billion Expiry on Friday According to the article, there are 114,700 options contracts valued around $1 Billion USD across Deribit, CME, Bakkt, OKEx, LedgerX which are set to expire, with open interest clustered around the $10,000.00 - $11,000.00 strike prices and recent open interest buildup around the $9,000.00 strike price. Get ready for a bumpy ride. With that, let’s get to the TA... Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, Since dropping back into the trade range established in the support zone ($9,460.00 - $8,900.00), the formation appears to be exhausting demand at the middle and lower ends of support, which is expected in Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution. “Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble.” - The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial After breaking through the upper level of support at the $9,460.00 price handle on a Sign of Weakness (SOW), the PA printed another Bearish Line of Support, and subsequently printed another Sign of Weakness (SOW) on a Descending Triple Bottom to the $9,200.00 price handle. After a brief recovery above the Bearish Line of Support, the PA smashed through the Bearish Line of Support again with a very strong move to the $8,980.00 price handle and established another Sign of Weakness (SOW) before recovering above the Bearish Line of Support once again. It’s very clear the purpose of these moves is to exhaust all remaining demand in this price region. As of this writing, the PA on the current weak rally appears constrained below the key line of resistance at $9,240.00. I would expect another strong move or cluster of moves to push PA down into the $8,900.00 price region in the near future to exhaust all remaining demand in that region, test/break the lower end of support at $8,900.00, and transition into Phase E for a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, after the bearish breakdown from the $9,600.00 price handle to the $9,260.00 price handle, the PA has been constrained beneath the $9,320.00 price handle, with large spreads and heavy sell volume, indicating significant supply has entered the market. The formation appears to have established a Bearish Line of Support on the trend line formed from an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. Ironically, that trend line once behaved as resistance. The PA smashed through this now Bearish Line of Support on a strong move down to the $8,980.00 price handle on a Sign of Weakness (SOW), before recovering above the Bearish Line of Support again. Much like my earlier analysis in the $9,600 region, I would expect the formation to print another green candle (potentially two), as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E and a final Selling Climax (SC). On 1D chart, after forming a “Creek” of descending PA and increased volume, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) signaled a move into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (again arguably the most volatile of the Wyckoff Phases). Two key items of note: (i) the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which formed at the Jump Across the Creek, failed to rise to at least the lower line of resistance at the $9,940 price handle, and (ii) the current cause built into the formation at the Intraday level suggests the current red candle should complete at the $7,900.00 price handle and establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) at a macro level. Should the PA fall below the lower level of support at $8,120.00, this would signal confirmation a Wyckoff Distribution (not Re-Accumulation) is underway at a macro level . This second point is significant as the remainder of the formation plays out at the macro level. Summary/Trade Plan I’ve currently taken short positions within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 region and the $9,400 - $9,300 range. I would look to add to my short position with weak rallies in the support zone (potentially between the $9,300 - $9,200 range), and shift Stops from the $9,510.00 price handle to the $9,470 price handle. The Target Price for the Selling Climax (SC) would be $7,940.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation during this Wyckoff Phase D). I would look to begin covering shorts at or near the $8,300 price handle layering buys through $7,940.00, reserving approximately 15% for a potential blow off bottom and potential bottom sell. At the Selling Climax (SC), I would look for a scalp long to catch the Automatic Reaction (AR) from the Selling Climax (SC) once the Low Pole Reversal Confirms – potentially somewhere in the $7,900 - $7,700 region. This would also be an excellent place for long term cold storage buys. Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, I would sell off any scalp long buys immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
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