Wyckoffdistribution
EURCAD SellsWith EURCAD I see us potentially beginning to accumulate. We have had a huge pullback after taking out EQLs however I have reasons to believe price will continue lower. I will be looking at this sell zone just above EQHs to bring it to a daily demand zone where I see the completion of this schematic
Bitcoin: Bearish Distribution Wyckoffian Analysis 1H (May 16)X Force Global Analysis:
In this analysis, we explore Bitcoin's bearish scenario based on the Wyckoffian logic.
Analysis
- On the right hand side, we have a simple diagram of the market phases developed by Wyckoff.
- It's important to remember Wyckoff's emphasis on supply and demand, cause and effect, and effort.
- In the accumulation phase, there is a high supply with low demand.
- The effect of high supply and low demand is rock bottom prices
- The Mark Up phase occurs when the supply of an asset has been diminished
- The demand then picks up when retail investors start taking notice of the upside of the underlying asset.
- In the Distribution phase, demand stays the same, while supply increases
- During the Mark Down phase, supply is at an all time high
- Basd on the wyckoffian logic, we are currently at a distribution phase, looking for a Mark Down.
- It's also important to note that we have been rejected constantly by the mid resistance of the bollinger band
Market Sentiment:
Long short ratios are at 73 to 27, with exceptional amounts of long and dominant bullish sentiment in the market.
What We Believe
As mentioned previously, a break and close above 10K was imperative for a bullish rally. However, it seems as though Bitcoin is having a hard time with rejection around 9.5k levels too. Interpreting this as a distribution phase, while a test of the 10K levels could definitely be possible, the bearish probabilities are still high, and the corrective scenario remains valid.
Trade Safe.
BTC is playing chess game with usHi there.
I guess the puzzle now can NOT be solved easily just by simple S/R lines.
It's close to halving,even convenience store's lady knows some coin is about to halving :)
So is it bull up right on time? is it the smart money want?
I accidentally saw Wyckoff’s Accumulation Schematics from @monetae_anon 's chart.
It's good knowledge to learn and thanks monetae_anon for sharing.
So i try to draw something here and still not guarantee it's working,but just look at it.
During halving we have exact bull momentum above global red resistance plus it stays inside 2 uptrends that can give people illusion that BTC breaks the global downtrend and sell everything bull up BTC.
One thing i learned is that smart money never trade by news.
So i guess during halving, it will hold till all people start to loss patient then launch this rocket.
Please comment and share.
Thank you for your time.
Alex Wang
BITCOIN 😷 Wyckoff Distribution 👇👇👇🤷 Volume was increasing, while Price was decreasing. This shows that Effort was greater than the Result. In other words, increasing Demand did not increase Price, therefore a further drop may follow as Supply is still overwhelming buyers.
💔 Sign of Weakness "in progress" with price trying to regain $8,600-ish (Bottom of Trading Range).
⚠️ This is not confirmed yet! Needs strong Bear Volume spike and price to drop below $8,500.
🚨 I am NOT shorting this, for information purposes only. I'm looking to accumulate Bitcoin when it finds a bottom. (Stop Loss would be above Last Point of Supply... $9,000-ish)
USDOLLAR longI think there is a high probability that this is a wyckoff reversal pattern and some shorts are going to get squeezed for a bit. I don't think I will get married to this trade but for now it looks like a good contender to start off the week. I have a video on the wyckoff method on my youtube channel if you have any questions. www.youtube.com
The Fundamentals of Wyckoff Theory Richard DeMille Wyckoff was a famous stock trader and investor, born in the late 19th century (1873–1934). Wykoff was a pioneer in the technical approach to stock market research. Wyckoff’s analyzed these market operators and their operations and concluded where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He shows the position of stop-losses at all times, the importance of managing the risk of any trade, and he explained techniques used to campaign within the large trend ( bullish and bearish ).Wyckoff also founded Wall Street Magazine.
A five-step approach to the market.
Wyckoff also developed specific Buying and Selling Tests, as well as a unique charting method based on Point and Figure (P&F) charts. While the tests help traders spot better entries, the P&F method is used to define trading targets. However, this article won’t dive into these two topics.
Accumulation
The Composite Man accumulates assets before most investors. This phase is usually marked by a sideways movement. The accumulation is done gradually to avoid the price from changing significantly.
Uptrend
When the Composite Man is holding enough shares, and the selling force is depleted, he starts pushing the market up. Naturally, the emerging trend attracts more investors, causing demand to increase.
Notably, there may be multiple phases of accumulation during an uptrend. We may call them re-accumulation phases, where the bigger trend stops and consolidates for a while, before continuing its upward movement.
As the market moves up, other investors are encouraged to buy. Eventually, even the general public become excited enough to get involved. At this point, demand is excessively higher than supply.
Distribution
Next, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings. He sells his profitable positions to those entering the market at a late stage. Typically, the distribution phase is marked by a sideways movement that absorbs demand until it gets exhausted.
Downtrend
Soon after the distribution phase, the market starts reverting to the downside. In other words, after the Composite Man is done selling a good amount of his shares, he starts pushing the market down. Eventually, the supply becomes much greater than demand, and the downtrend is established.
Similar to the uptrend, the downtrend may also have re-distribution phases. These are basically short-term consolidation between big price drops. They may also include Dead Cat Bounces or the so-called bull traps, where some buyers get trapped, hoping for a trend reversal that doesn’t happen. When the bearish trend is finally over, a new accumulation phase begins.
Bitcoin is still in a distribution phase, sorry bulls.Hi guys,
so my previous idea that we had a falling wedge with higher probability that we would make a push back upwards towards 7.8k range worked out pretty well
I was short term bullish, and I was watching and waiting for that tick upwards.. but I think the end is very near and we are heading towards a big crash down
in the very near future, maybe in the following weeks, most probably before the halving happens..
looking at everything, I am seeing a Wyckoff distribution pattern that is currently being followed, and this spike upwards was nothing more than our UTAD test
we will probably be ranging a bit within these areas for a few days maybe.. but I think a big drop and crash down out of our rising wedge is likely to be happening
if we do close our monthly candle above the EMA21 I will be very bullish for bitcoin.. so that monthly candle close will tell us all, and that's only 6 days away :)
so for now, my bearish bias still remains, if you want to hear more reasons why? then you can still watch me live on Facebook or Youtube, just google " The Dang Oracle "
have been streaming live daily 7.30PM (UTC+8)
see you on the next one. #stayhome #staysafe #staycovidfree
-Ryu
Wyckoff Theory Predicts a May Breakout For BitcoinWyckoff distribution theory states that there is a proportional effect for every cause in the market. Thus, after every accumulation phase, there is a markup, distribution, and finally a markdown phase. More specifically, each phase has its distinct characteristics
The current Bitcoin price movement closely resembles the Wyckoff accumulation phase, which occurs in five stages, outlined by the letters A through E. According to it, the Bitcoin price is currently in stage B, which will end with a high near $9500. Afterwards,
Phase A began with the "Selling Climax" on Oct. 24, 2019, which was immediately succeeded by the "Automatic Response'', in which the price reached a new high. These values serve to outline the support and resistance areas of the range, which are shown with dashed horizontal white lines.
In phase B, the price crated slightly lower lows in the "Secondary Test," which acted as a spring was followed by an increase that ended at the range highs. If the price continues following this accumulation pattern, it will continue to increase until it reaches a high at the $9,500 area, followed by a decrease that marks the beginning of phase C. The fact that the daily RSI is below 50 supports this possibility, especially if it gets rejected by the 50 line, which is looking likely.
In this phase, there are two possible outlines for the BTC movement, outlined by dashed and solid lines. The dashed outline is bearish, and the price will create a lower low, which is otherwise known as a spring. If the price gets there, it would provide the ABSOLUTE maximum return for investors.The solid line (more common) would create a higher low, otherwise known as the '' Last point of support''. The ensuing movement is the same, since the price is expected to reach a new high.
Stage D is characterised by the breakout, with the possible top above the range high being considered the "Show of Strength," while phase E takes the price to new territory, possibly aiming for the all-time high of $20,000.
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Happy trading everyone
EURGBP Short Setup Long-TermBeautiful Wyckoff Distribution Schematic 1 on the weekly timeframe, price is now creating the LPSY which will break the ice for the next drop to occur sending price on a markdown.
Nice Smart Money Sell Setup. They tricked dumb money into buying allowing them to enter sells at discounted price levels. Price has settled below the WAP where it is now creating the final LPSY of the Wyckoff pattern setting up another discounted sell entry price.
CUV: ASX - CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALSFrom September 2018 through to May 2019 this stock was in a re-accumulation phase. You can see there was a sell off in September when supply it the market and the stock pulled back.
From November the stock hit support and from there we started making higher lows. We took at the top of the trading range in late February where we a sign of strength. The stock was sold into that rise and we pulled back again.
It broke back down through the top of the range but bounced back very quickly. A definite last point of support before mark up. Completing the re-accumulation.
The stock ran well from May to July. The first sign that there may be a significant pull back at some stage was the steepness of how it moved higher. We did see a large amount of supply come in - the most we had ever seen.
Interestingly we only had a small pull back on lighter volume. The stock moved higher again with $40 in its sights. Look at the supply that came in June. A definite buying climax. A lot of retail traders were sucked into this one at that stage and the professionals were selling into the up move.
This time we saw a significant pull back. A certain first sign of weakness. Price took out the low before the high (Where demand came in) and it looked as if it was forming a distribution range to move lower.
The news changed that. It looks like further distribution then took place, which negated the need to move the stock sideways for a considerable time.
I believe this stock was heavily accumulated back in the $0 - $5 range and this has been a very long and patient campaign.
Stock was sold at approx $22, $29, $34, $38 and finally $44.
A very successful campaign.
$23.65 is the key level now. The low before the extreme move higher. If that is taken out, it could be heading a lot lower.
If it can hold that level and consolidate and build another accumulation range, it may move higher.
Right now its a holding pattern.
Happy New Years!