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Wyckoffdistribution

Bitcoin Enters a Phase C Wyckoff Dist (Target Price $9,060)Happy Thursday. Currently the formation has completed Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution and is moving into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution – arguably the most volatile of all the Wyckoff Phases. I believe the PA appears to be headed lower in the near future for a number of key reasons: The formation has remained constrained beneath the trend line (on the 4H Intraday) from the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. Currently the upper line of support at the $9,460 price handle is acting as resistance and constraining price beneath it as well. The formation is grinding along a Bearish Support Line, formed Downward Breakdown of the Bearish Support Line, and signaled a Sign of Weakness (SOW) as it formed the “Creek” to jump across. “Jumping the Creek” generally happens as Phase B ends and is an attempt to rally above resistance at the $$9,580 price handle (which was unsuccessful). The formation failed to break past the upper support line at the $9,460 price handle on the “Jump Across the Creek”, signaling weak demand and bearish bias. Further, on the pullback, the low re-tested the Bearish Support Line. The current cause built into the formation from consolidation suggests a target price of $9,060.00. Always keep in mind, as consolidation continues more cause is built into the formation (much like a spring being wound and compressed before being released). Consequently, the price target will shift as consolidation continues and more cause is built in. While a line of support exists at the $9,360 price handle on the 15M Intraday, my expectation is it will provide a momentary pause in downward price movement rather than strong support. As the formation moves into a Phase C Wyckoff Distribution volatility is what defines this Phase. Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) and shakeouts should be expected. Unless the formation prints Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which breaks past resistance at the $9,580 price handle, Backs Up to form a Last Point of Support (BU/LPS) at or above the resistance line and bounces, the formation still maintains a bearish bias. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Phase B Wyckoff Distribution (Price Target $9,140)Happy Wednesday. Today’s analysis will be a bit brief and focus on the activity of the 4H Intraday chart for a potential short setup. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the PA continues to remain underneath both the resistance range at the $9,480 price handle and the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. During Phase A, the Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance failed to establish a higher high above the Automatic Reaction (AR) at the $9,580 price handle, which suggests bullish demand in this region continues to remain somewhat soft. Further the volume required to move the PA from the Secondary Test (ST) of Support to the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance was almost three times as much as the volume required to move the PA from the Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance to the first Sign of Weakness (SOW). This would suggest distribution is underway. Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart: (i) the PA continues to remain solidly underneath the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) to the $10,000.00 price handle, and (ii) a series of successive lower lows have opened up, creating a potential Bearish Triple Bottom Breakdown/Downward Breakout of a Bearish Support Line. Both takeaways would suggest a bearish bias when viewing the 4H Intraday Chart. Should the PA break through the Bearish Support Line at $9,400, the Target Price for the Breakdown would be $9,140.00. Should the PA break above the $9,620, this would signal a buy in this region with a potential upside target of $9,980.00. Currently the formation favors a bearish bias. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
7
Bitcoin Enters a Phase E Wyckoff DistributionHappy Thursday. While Bitcoin pushes forward into a more bearish market in the near term, the news cycle around cryptocurrency and stablecoins continue to dominate news cycles and continues to be very upbeat. Bank Frick, the cryptocurrency friendly bank in Lichtenstein, now processes payments in USDC as an alternative to processing payments via the SWIFT system. "With the addition of USDC, we enable our customers to process USD payments quickly and token-based. Compared to the classic SWIFT procedure, the processing time is significantly reduced," said Stefan Rauti, head of blockchain banking at Bank Frick. Crypto-Friendly Bank Frick Now Processes Payments Via USDC Stablecoin, Says it is Faster Than SWIFT Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a Phase C Wyckoff Distribution (arguably the most volatile phase in a Wyckoff Distribution), shortly after the PA formed a “Creek” of cascading lower lows. This PA was followed by the initial Upward Thrust (UT) at the Jump Across the Creek which failed to at least hit the lower resistance line at $9,860, signaling a potential Distribution was underway. After a brief consolidation period throughout the mid-range of the formation, the PA volatility came in relentless wave after wave: four Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) and a test of the $9,600.00 support level. The UTADs topped out at $9,880.00, $9,840.00, $10,000.00, and $9,960.00 respectively, yet none of the UTADs decisively broke the $10,000.00 resistance level, also signaling a potential Distribution was underway. Shortly after, the PA decisively broke through the lower support handle at $9,660.00 and subsequently tested support at $9,600.00 on a Sign of Weakness (SOW) signaling entry into a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution. After moving higher to the midpoint of the trade range to $9,780.00, the PA smashed through the lower support handle again at $9,660.00 and pushed through support at $9,600.00 to the $9,580.00 price handle on a second consecutive Sign of Weakness (SOW). Once the formation exits the trade range and the PA moves below the lower support handle of $9,660.00, it will signal the PA has moved into the final phase (Phase E) of a Wyckoff Distribution, and climactic price action should happen shortly after. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute chart With Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) at $9,880.00, $9,840.00, and $10,000.00 respectively. Three key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart which add to the argument a Wyckoff Phase E Distribution is unfolding (i) during the Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD), none decisively broke the $10,000.00 resistance level, suggesting a turn lower was in play, (ii) the PA continued to follow the trendline established from the Last Point of Support (LPS) at the $8,820.00 handle, until the PA broke decisively downward after forming a higher low (and LPSY) from rejection of the $10,000.00 price handle, and (iii) that decisive break resulted in a collapse through the critical lower support handle of $9,660.00 and through support at $9,600.00 in a single candle. All these signs appear to signal a Phase E Wyckoff Distribution is about to occur. The formation of the 4H Intraday chart currently has about $1,000.00 of downside cause built into the formation from the congestion, which would suggest a target price of $8,740 once the climactic action of the Phase E Wyckoff Distribution exhausts all the downside cause in a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a red candle, which is currently at higher low relative to the previous red candle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term and move lower towards the bottom of the trade range to the $8,120.00 price handle. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase E Wyckoff Distribution is underway as well. My expectation is for the formation to move lower in the near term, with a current price target at the $8,740 handle, followed by consolidation and distribution around this range before the next leg down. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Enters a Phase D Wyckoff DistributionHappy Monday. It seems the season of change for Bitcoin may be upon us in the near term, which again seems counter-intuitive considering the current news cycle. Nevertheless, it can provide some excellent buying opportunities for cold storage at excellent value as Distribution pushes forward. With that, let’s get into the Trading Analysis… The 15M Intraday Chart Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a normal Wyckoff Accumulation from the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,280 through the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,880. The formation then moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Distribution and appeared to experience a Change of Character (CHoCH) in Phase B, signaling a shift into a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Phase. The first Shakeout drove the PA down to the $9,660 on a Secondary Test (ST) of the low formed at $9,720 on the Automatic Reaction (AR), to establish the trading range for support. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a normal Wyckoff Accumulation from the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,280 through the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,880. The formation then moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Distribution and appeared to experience a Change of Character (CHoCH) in Phase B, signaling a shift into a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Phase. The first Shakeout drove the PA down to the $9,660 on a Secondary Test (ST) of the low formed at $9,720 on the Automatic Reaction (AR), to establish the trading range for support. Phase C started with a Creek formation which is expected in Phase C of a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation. Typically we would expect to see a Sign of Strength (SOS) at the conclusion of the accumulation (called a “Jump Across the Creek”), which would appear as a strong upward move in the PA to the Resistance Line, followed by a small pullback to a Last Point of Support (LPS) (generally withing the upper and lower boundaries of resistance) and a subsequent bullish advance. Instead, the formation failed to rally to or above lower resistance line at the $9,860 handle (formed by the earlier Secondary Test (ST) in Phase A) which would suggest the formation was experiencing a Change of Character (CHoCH) and moving into a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution. A second attempt by the PA to push higher stalled out at $$9,780 (which formed a lower high) and a subsequent PA print below the lower support line at $9,660 signaled a Sign of Weakness (SOW). The 4H Intraday Chart Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute chart constraining accumulation activity inside the lower trade range between $9,740 and $9,660. Three key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart which add to the argument a Wyckoff Phase D Distribution is underway (i) when the formation moved to Jump Across the Creek, the initial move down to establish the creek caused the PA to break the support line at $9600, suggesting a bearish bias is now in play on the 4H Chart, (ii) the Upward Thrust (UT) from the Jump Across the Creek failed to at least rise to or surpass the lower resistance line at $9,840 and, (iii) lower highs and higher lows have formed on all PA since the Upward Thrust (UT). All these signs appear to signal a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is currently underway. The 1D Chart Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a green candle, which is currently a lower high than the previous candle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term before. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is underway as well. My expectation is for the formation to move lower in the near term, with a current price target at the $8,740 handle, followed by consolidation and distribution around this range before the next leg down. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
9
Bitcoin Enters a Phase B Wyckoff Distribution on 4H IntradayHappy Friday. It seems the season of Bitcoin may be changing, which of course seems counter-intuitive considering the current news cycle. While the market seems to be preparing for the next legs down, on the fundamental side, it seems Bitcoin is finally getting its due. Recently the acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks solicited input from the public on cryptocurrency use in the financial sector. On the surface this seems like click-bait, but when we dig deeper, one item of interest is Brian Brooks is the former Chief Legal Officer (CLO) of Coinbase. US Bank Regulator OCC Asks for Public Input on Cryptocurrency Use in Financial Sector Be sure to check out the Advanced Notice of Proposed Rule Making linked in the article and provide some feedback. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation realized the target price of $9,860 suggested in yesterday’s market analysis, which signaled Preliminary Supply (PSY). Shortly after, it pushed one box higher to $9,880 in a Buying Climax (BC), which signaled the beginning of a potential Phase A Wyckoff Distribution underway on the 4H chart. The Automatic Reaction (AR) pulled back to $9,720, and formed the preliminary trade range between $9,880 and $9,720 to conclude Phase A. As the formation moved into Phase B, it printed a lower Secondary Test (ST) at $9,840 - just underneath the upper end of the trade range, then turned lower and pushed through the initial support established at $9,740 from the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the $9,660 price level on a Sign of Weakness (SOW). We need to peek at the 15M Intraday chart to get an idea of what’s happening here… Looking at the 15M chart, we see the formation established support for the Sign of Weakness (SOW) at the $9,660 price point, then performed a Secondary Test (ST) of the support at $9,660 before printing a Shakeout Spring to the $9,600 level. Two key takeaways from analyzing this PA (i) the move to the downside occurred almost immediately after breaking the support trend line established at the $9,460 low which formed after signaling a Sign of Strength (SOS) and subsequent rise to the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,860, and (ii) support at $9,660 has been tested and confirmed four times as of the time of this writing. The formation continues to establish support at this level, with price currently confined in the $9,720 - $9,660 trade range. This PA appears to confirm a normal Phase B Wyckoff Distribution is currently underway on the Intraday time frame. Recall from yesterday’s analysis of the 1D Chart, during Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution, large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Given this appears to be a normal Wyckoff Distribution, my expectation would be gradual rise back to the $9,880 upper resistance level, with a potential Upward Thrust (UT) to a price point somewhere around the $10,000 – mid $9,000’s, before turning back down and moving into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution. Currently the formation on the 4H Intraday has $300 of cause built in from the consolidation, which suggests a price target of $9,420, should the high immediately after the Sign of Weakness (SOW) at $9,720 behave as the Last Point of Supply (LPSY). As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a red candle, pushing the PA lower. My expectation is the 1D formation should begin to print lower highs over the near term before moving onto Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation is underway as well. Were I to hazard a guess, it would appear that $9,200 may be in the cards in the foreseeable future before re-establishing support for the next leg down. I would imagine the $9,900 - $10,000 region will be the eventual target of an Upward Thrust (UT) on the 4H Intraday before dropping back down to form another lower high and so on over the near term until Phase C begins on the 1D chart. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOFAgent1
6
Bitcoin Consolidation in the $9,620 - $9,120 of a Wyckoff DistHappy Monday everyone. This morning on CNBC I came across an interesting article about the current global dollar shortage and the moves the FED is taking to provide access to dollars during this massive (and temporary) surge in demand. It’s fascinatingly counter-intuitive in light of the recent waves of money printing from the FED and the US Treasury. A Global Rush Into the US Dollar is Driving Extreme Market Moves and a Temporary Shortage Recently there has been a bunch of activity with Tether and other Stablecoins, suggesting a broader move into the cryptocurrency space, and potential pent up demand for Bitcoin. I speculated at one point, some of this might be attributed to investors and businesses moving their cash into Stablecoins to hedge against the ramifications of negative interest rates, bank liquidity issues and fees. Shortly after Jeremy Allaire of Circle had some similar thoughts on the subject based upon what they were seeing as well. Circle CEO Claims ‘Explosive’ Stablecoin Demand From Everyday Businesses It would be interesting to see if Stablecoins become a stopgap for the temporary USD shortage in the coming weeks. Interesting times. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation remains range-bound towards the upper end of the trade range (between $9,620 and $9,280) in a regular consolidation pattern for a Wyckoff Distribution Phase. The upper trend-line formed from the Upward Thrust (UT) on the Secondary Test (ST) remains unbroken, and no Change of Character (CHoCH) has been signaled at the time of this writing (which would suggest a move to re-accumulate from this normal distribution phase). The formation appears to be in Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution currently. My expectation for the near future is the formation will continue to remain range-bound within the upper limits of the trade range (between $9,620 and $9,280) and potentially have another Upward Thrust (UT) before turning lower to retest the lower limits of the trade range (between $9,280 and $9,120) before printing a Sign of Weakness (SOW). Currently there is approximately $1,020 of cause built into the formation during this consolidation period, which would suggest a current price target of $8,580. As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. The Volume Oscillator is again showing a bearish divergence from the formation and is printing a negative number (-39.32%), suggesting a strong shift in the current trend is on the horizon. For reference, right before the previous drop from $9,300 to $8,640, the Volume Oscillator signaled a bearish divergence and printed a negative number of similar magnitude (-45.78%). Looking at the 1D chart, the PA is compressing towards the upper end of the trade range yet remains pinned beneath the upper trend line formed from the $10,060 high. My expectation the formation will print a lower high over the next few days remains unchanged. My feeling is we will visit the lower end of the 1D trade range ($8,120), retest the lower end, and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) down towards $7,700 before reversing and moving higher again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
1
Bitcoin: Bearish Distribution Wyckoffian Analysis 1H (May 16)X Force Global Analysis: In this analysis, we explore Bitcoin's bearish scenario based on the Wyckoffian logic. Analysis - On the right hand side, we have a simple diagram of the market phases developed by Wyckoff. - It's important to remember Wyckoff's emphasis on supply and demand, cause and effect, and effort. - In the accumulation phase, there is a high supply with low demand. - The effect of high supply and low demand is rock bottom prices - The Mark Up phase occurs when the supply of an asset has been diminished - The demand then picks up when retail investors start taking notice of the upside of the underlying asset. - In the Distribution phase, demand stays the same, while supply increases - During the Mark Down phase, supply is at an all time high - Basd on the wyckoffian logic, we are currently at a distribution phase, looking for a Mark Down. - It's also important to note that we have been rejected constantly by the mid resistance of the bollinger band Market Sentiment: Long short ratios are at 73 to 27, with exceptional amounts of long and dominant bullish sentiment in the market. What We Believe As mentioned previously, a break and close above 10K was imperative for a bullish rally. However, it seems as though Bitcoin is having a hard time with rejection around 9.5k levels too. Interpreting this as a distribution phase, while a test of the 10K levels could definitely be possible, the bearish probabilities are still high, and the corrective scenario remains valid. Trade Safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
12
BTC is playing chess game with usHi there. I guess the puzzle now can NOT be solved easily just by simple S/R lines. It's close to halving,even convenience store's lady knows some coin is about to halving :) So is it bull up right on time? is it the smart money want? I accidentally saw Wyckoff’s Accumulation Schematics from @monetae_anon 's chart. It's good knowledge to learn and thanks monetae_anon for sharing. So i try to draw something here and still not guarantee it's working,but just look at it. During halving we have exact bull momentum above global red resistance plus it stays inside 2 uptrends that can give people illusion that BTC breaks the global downtrend and sell everything bull up BTC. One thing i learned is that smart money never trade by news. So i guess during halving, it will hold till all people start to loss patient then launch this rocket. Please comment and share. Thank you for your time. Alex Wang
by alex13652117992
BITCOIN 😷 Wyckoff Distribution 👇👇👇🤷 Volume was increasing, while Price was decreasing. This shows that Effort was greater than the Result. In other words, increasing Demand did not increase Price, therefore a further drop may follow as Supply is still overwhelming buyers. 💔 Sign of Weakness "in progress" with price trying to regain $8,600-ish (Bottom of Trading Range). ⚠️ This is not confirmed yet! Needs strong Bear Volume spike and price to drop below $8,500. 🚨 I am NOT shorting this, for information purposes only. I'm looking to accumulate Bitcoin when it finds a bottom. (Stop Loss would be above Last Point of Supply... $9,000-ish)
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ChartCinema