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Wyckoffdistribution

Bitcoin has now broken below 9k. Were you surprised?If you guys saw my other BTC post (link: ) then you would know I had been mentioning this distribution schematic for some time, and we have now broken below 9k giving it a lot more validation. We are now trading under 8750, and price is looking quite bearish. I think this 8k range might be just a temporary stopping point before we eventually head down into the 7k region. The 9k region should act as a major resistance level now as well. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by Deftsuo
BITCOIN BATTLE CONTINUES - KEY LEVELS APPROACHING!Since the climactic action in Bitcoin in late June, price has entered a trading range and we have had the signs of Wyckoff distribution. We will need to see the confirmation of the weakness on the right hand side of the trading range. The characteristics of distribution and re-accumulation can be very similar. A buying climax followed by an automatic reaction and the secondary test. The secondary test was on lighter volume indicating demand may have eased. We also couldn't reach the top of the trading range. Price failed at $13,200 with supply entering the market. This level may be tested in the future if we do see a rally higher. Although we are making lower highs, an indication of the downtrend establishing. Mid July we saw the bottom of the trading range tested and a minor sign of weakness. The price sliced through $10,000 on large volume and spread indicating large supply levels entering the market. We didn't see any follow through lower and this was the first sign that bitcoin may need to go sideways longer to build that cause for the next trend move. The first key level to watch is $10,520.30 - the top of the supply bar. This is the highest volume on the chart since the buying climax. Price has just moved through this area in the last 4 hours. The next few bars will be interesting. 18th July was the first sign of any demand entering the market and price rallied higher on nice volume and spread. We have seen this level defended on four occasions now. There are two ways to interpret this - the smart money is not allowing price to fall lower or they have not distributed fully yet and are doing this on the rallies higher. By 21st July the demand had eased and price had to fall to find further demand. We did see a spring of this area on July 29 and rallied strongly thereafter. Price rallied to $12,325 before stalling. The second key level I want to talk about is $10,974.63 - this has been a flip area for support and resistance since the supply came in at this level back in early July and may be a crucial level moving forward. Look at how many times on the chart price has bounced higher or lower off it. Look at 5th August, it was the first time in a while that price could break through this level. It was no coincidence that there is a large range demand bar starting at that level. It is the area where demand overcame supply. Unfortunately there wasn't much follow through higher after this and price trending sideways before failing again. In mid august the bottom of the trading range was tested and defended again. We have certainly now built enough cause for a move. We need to see the confirmation on the right hand side of the chart. A large demand bar that takes out these levels and rallies higher or a large collapse and supply bar taking out the bottom of the trading range. Either way there is a nice moving coming and patience is the key. So keep your eye on $10,974.63 in the near future!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AussieWyckoff
3
AUD/USD - SECOND DISTRIBUTION PATTERN FORMING - HEADING LOWER?A clear second distribution pattern is forming. We have selling into the moves higher on the recent BC and ST by the looks of the volume. We are also approaching a re-test of the AR in the first larger distribution pattern. The downward trend that has formed also indicates a re-test approaching. Watching this closely for some reversal signals to get into a longer term short trade. Do your own research and good luck.
Short
by AussieWyckoff
5
BTC running out of steamA quick TA on the BTCUSD charts! In the past weeks, quite clearly we are seeing price action of BTC within a narrowing upward channel, holding quite diligently to the 50MA (in green). However, we are starting to see weakness in the bulls as volume seems to be diminishing, and a clear MACD divergence printed. The ADX is also starting to show signs of weakness in momentum, and smaller DI divergence. According to this analysis, unless the bulls come in strong, the likelihood of a 'distribution period' (see wyckoff market cycles) may be in play. We may see a 'spring' attempt to breakout from the narrowing upward channel only to result in a fakeout, followed by a dramatic markdown. Alternatively, if the 50MA and lower support trendline fails, the markdown may be sooner.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by gingerbre4d
Textbook pattern: Wyckoff Distributionstockcharts.com Text and pattern copied from the link, all I did was to apply it to the chart. Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax ( BC ). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and then a secondary test ( ST ) of the BC , often upon diminished volume . However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume , and with less upward progress made on each rally before significant supply emerges. In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top. Phase B: The function of phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about phase B in distribution are similar to those made for phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside. Phase C: In distribution, phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR . This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move. Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until phase D and an LPSY. Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST . In this case, phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR . Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during phase D is asking for trouble. Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by achh
S&P 500 TopI believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. I am calling a top in the S&P 500 and the charts pretty much speak for themselves. What is most important to me is the death cross with the 50 & 200 day MA’s along with the 200 flattening out after a multi year trend. I am also viewing the current range as a Wyckoff Distribution pattern. From here I would expect a breakdown of the ice line or one last dead cat bounce to retest the middle of the trading range at $2,700 - $2,725. The 50 day MA also happens to be waiting in that area and if that does get retested then it would provide a high probability short sale entry. Same goes if we get a daily close below the ice line. When we zoom out to the weekly the picture does not get any prettier, in fact it provides very important confirmation. We broke down the 3 year bull trend line and promptly turned it into resistance. The 22 week MA has rolled down, with the price below it, for the first time since the last presidential election. This week also just closed a bearish engulfing candle. According to Thomas Bulkowski: “the bearish engulfing candlestick serves as a bearish reversal in 79% of the 20,000 examples that I studied.”(1) I have been fully out of my S&P longs for over a month and now I’m fully entered into shorts. That is due to the price closeing below the 4, 9, 50 & 200 MA’s on the daily combined with a death cross with the 50 & 200 along with a bearish crossover with the 3 & 9 MA’s. This is confirmed with the weekly closing below the 4, 8 & 22 MA’s with bearish crossovers across the board. If you would like to learn how to use moving averages more effectively then I would strongly recommend subscribing to Tyler Jenks Hyperwave youtube channel and starting with the following video. www.youtube.com (1) thepatternsite.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Sawcruhteez