EURUSD Wyckoff Analysis: ShortThe market did move narrowly and had a fake breakout. That is typical for whyckoff phase D during distribution.
PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.
BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.
AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.
SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.
LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.
UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.
Wyckoffmethod
NZD CAD Major potential accumulationHey Guys,
NZD CAD just came out of an accumulation on the daily timeframe, confirmed by the most recent break of structure, so our overall bias is long. But scoping in on the 1 hr timeframe we can see re-distribution, so we will not enter long yet, instead we will wait for price to go lower, and we MUST see accumulation on lower timeframes to go long, if we don't see an accumulation then very simply we will not be entering any longs. we will wait for the lower timeframes to be aligned with the higher timeframe to enter long. will update through the week.
USDJPY | Market outlook
The Summer Olympics begins in Tokyo, which will be held amid a worsening pandemic situation in the country and in the world. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga met with the leadership of Pfizer Inc., where he discussed the possibility of accelerating the supply of vaccines to the country. Also, the PRC government is launching an anti-dumping investigation against companies supplying rolled steel from Japan to China. It is expected that following the investigation, Japanese manufacturers will be obliged to pay anti-dumping duties from 39% to 45%
The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen Friday as the market shifted focus to next weeks Federal Reserve meeting. Investors next major focus is the Feds two-day policy meeting next week. Many economists still expect the meeting to advance discussions for a tapering of stimulus. Risk appetite remained high on Friday, with the rise in U.S. stocks, the sell-off in Treasuries, gains in most commodity currencies, and the greenback coming off its peaks.
Possible retest around 110 area before bearish trend continuation. It's recommended to sell on the rallies.
USD is smiling but for how long? | Technical AnalysisPublished today June data from the US construction sector was ambiguous. The number of building permits issued fell from 1.683 to 1.598 million instead of the expected increase of 1.700 million, but the number of new homes starts grew more than the market expected, from 1.546 to 1.643 million. The strengthening of the dollar is constrained by the worsening epidemiological situation in the USA due to the spread of the Delta strain. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), over the past week, the average daily increase in patients with coronavirus in the country amounted to 26K people, which is twice more than in June. Some companies are already taking action to contain the business impact of the new outbreak.
PLTR Taking a breather here.....Just an update to my last PLTR idea. This one is a little tighter on the path and shows the direction and intent....
by iCantw84it
06.01.2021
DKNG Are we starting to see the 10x advertising budget show?This is like a tiking time bomb waiting to explode in a good way. They stated at the begining of the year that it would be in their best interest to increase their advertising budget 10 fold. It was an obscene amount of money I want to say close to 50Million? I could be off by a 0 here or there. but the end result is based off increasing the advertising budget 10x we should see an increase to profits equal to. With covid and gambling going up in general....this should be an easy win win.
by iCantw84it
07.20.2021
ATVI Blizzard looking strong through the last half of the year. With the christmas season coming naturally gaming tends to pickup even more and should expect the numbers to show in Blizzard. WOW isnt there only game and they have had a talent for making money in this sector for a long time. I used the algo key code on this. and Also marked where Absorption was attempted to be made. Most likely should start pumping at this point.
by iCantw84it
07.20.2021
PLTR updated paths using algo KeycodeJust an update to the paths of PLTR using the algo keycode i found a more aggressive path that might hold.
I think its done going down for now.
by iCantw84it
07.20.2021
PLTR go Boom!Look at the afterhour trading on this....Clearly can see which path this is going to take. Lets go!
by iCantw84it
07.19.2021
OIL PRICE IS SUFFERING | CASE STUDY
Oil price is suffering on the back of OPEC and allies (OPEC+) deal to boost oil supplies.
Expectations of growing supplies after OPEC news and depressed demand amid rise in coronavirus cases is denting prices.
Oil case study using Market structure and Wyckoff method.
Wyckoff on NASThis is what I see right now. Subject to change after market opens tonight.
Expecting a retrace to get liquidity and close some IMB's then continue back down.
US30 FORECAST Since the move 35119 made double tops with the last high of 10 May.... we all know that they is a ton of SL's above the highs I therefore anticipate that Price will go lower to fulfill IMB's at the bottom of the Range before going for Liquidity above the EQH's as the structure is so so so BULLISH.
Wyckoff Distribution Trade SetupSo OANDA:AUDUSD has been forming a textbook Wyckoff distribution pattern and is hanging by a thread atm. We are currently entering phase E which according to the Wyckoff distribution schematic is a markdown phase. You can clearly see the price manipulate the highs and break down out of the structure. If you still haven't shorted yet you might want to wait for the falling wedge to break or wait for some type of institutional candle of some sort. Targets would be according to my fib levels around the .382 and the .618 retrace. Follow for more trade setups! Good Luck traders!
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Wyckoff Accumulation + Bullish BatFX:GBPCHF Has for the past couple months been forming a clear Wyckoff accumulation schematic. Its been manipulating the lows and we got the last low which was the spring, or shakeout. There is also a bullish bat which matches perfectly with the institutional candle that formed on the chart which is where your entry would be if you decide to take this long position. Your target would be the previous resistance at the high. Follow for more free trade setups! Good luck traders!
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Bitcoin Wyckoff [Accumulation & Distribution] — ⚠️Possible 24000This trading method was developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1930s. It consists of a series of principles and strategies originally designed for traders and investors. Wyckoff devoted much of his life to studying market behaviour, and his work still influences much of modern technical analysis (TA).
Currently, the Wyckoff method is applied to all types of financial markets, although it was originally focused only on stocks, but I find it amazingly good on cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin
During the creation of his work, Wyckoff was inspired by the trading methods of other successful traders (especially Jesse L. Livermore). Today he is in the same respect as other key figures such as Charles H. Doe and Ralph N. Elliott.
Wyckoff's Three Laws
The law of supply and demand
The first law states that the value of assets begins to rise when demand exceeds supply, and accordingly falls in the opposite order. This is one of the most basic principles in the financial markets, which does not exclude Wyckoff in his works. We can represent the first law as three simple equations:
Demand > Supply = Price Increases
Demand < Supply = Price Falls
Demand = supply = no significant price change (low volatility)
In other words, Wyckoff's First Law assumes that the excess of demand over supply leads to higher prices, since there are more buyers than sellers. But in a situation where there are more sales than purchases, and supply exceeds demand, it indicates a further drop in value.
Many investors who use the Wyckoff method correlate price movement with bar volume as a way to better visualize the relationship between supply and demand. This often helps to predict the future movement of the market.
Personally I recommend use higher timeframes and indicators like ADL and Stochastic RSI.
The law of cause
The second law states that the differences between supply and demand are not coincidences. Instead, they reflect preparatory actions as a result of certain events. In Wyckoff's terminology, the accumulation period (cause) ultimately leads to an uptrend (effect). In turn, the distribution period (reason) provokes the development of a downtrend (consequence).
Wyckoff used a unique technique of plotting patterns on charts to assess the potential consequences for specific causes. In other words, he created methods for determining trading targets based on periods of accumulation and distribution. This allowed him to assess the likely expansion of the market trend after exiting the consolidation zone or trading range (TR).
The Law of the Connection of Efforts and Results
Wyckoff's Third Law states that changes in price are the result of total effort that is reflected in trading volume. In the case when the growth of the asset value corresponds to the high trading volume, there is a high probability that the trend will continue its movement. But if the volumes are too small at a high price, the growth will most likely stop and the trend may change its direction.
For example, let's imagine that the bitcoin market starts to consolidate with very high volume after a long bearish trend. High trading volumes indicate more demand, but sideways movement (low volatility) suggests little outcome. If a large number of bitcoins change hands and the price does not fall significantly, this may indicate that the downtrend may end and there will soon be a reversal.
To sum up, the Wyckoff Method allows investors to make smarter and more logical decisions without relying on their emotional state. His extensive work provides traders and investors with a range of tools to reduce risk and increase their chances of success. However, there is no single, reliable methodology when it comes to investment. You should always approach all trades with caution and take into account all potential risks, especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market.
Best regards
Artem Shevelev