Wyckoff Distribution BTCFirst time analyzing BTC with this method, if current levels dont hold then we're going to phase D.
Wyckoffmethod
CRYPTO - BTC - The Wyckoff Method #2Wyckoff Method Application:
Hello everyone, I spotted another great application for the Wyckoff Method, this time using Distribution Schematic #2. I caution bulls, as I believe that we are at the end of an exuberance phase and now Reward and Risk have inverted for Longs! I personally think that the price can go sub 10k very quickly, and 20k~ is a likely bottom. Trade with care...
But without further ado, Here we go!
5 Step Approach to the Market:
1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market.
- Currently swinging bearish, and I believe I have determined the whale operating on this market's trade setup:
2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend.
- Bitcoin is a leading indicator for the crypto market, but it is led by investors' risk appetite. I am bearish on the market, and I believe that US10Y yields will hit 2% again in the nearest future (which inverts the market, and consequently, the crypto market):
- My previous Wyckoff Idea (RIOT) being validated to TP1 gives me further confidence in my logic tree of assumption, and gives me the conviction to add to short positions on the previously powerful bull market:
3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective.
- I have high conviction that (a) BTC has ended its uptrend and is currently in a distribution phase, and (b) I speculate that the macro trend is about to reverse.
- My minimum objective is to use BTC as a leading indicator for crypto related instruments.
DXY:
4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move.
- TA shows that the stock is ready for a move to the downside (I won't be sharing all of my tells).
5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index.
- I have high conviction that the stock market index will also see downside in the nearest future:
Three Wyckoff Laws:
1. The law of supply and demand determines the price direction.
2. The law of cause and effect.
3. The law of effort.
Analyses of Trading Ranges:
- Trading ranges ( TRs ) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand . Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR .
Wyckoff Schematics:
- A successful Wyckoff analyst must be able to anticipate and correctly judge the direction and magnitude of the move out of a TR . Fortunately, Wyckoff offers time-tested guidelines for identifying and delineating the phases and events within a TR , which, in turn, provide the basis for estimating price targets in the subsequent trend.
Nine Buying/Selling Tests:
FYI - I won't be using a P&F chart.
1. Upside objective accomplished. ✔️
2. Activity bearish ( volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions). ✔️
3. Preliminary supply, buying climax. ✔️
4. Stock weaker than the market (that is, more responsive than the market on reactions and sluggish on rallies). Stock did not make new high, when BTC made a new ATH! ✔️
5. Upward stride broken (that is, support line or uptrend line penetrated). Currently in the beginning of a descending scallop (scythe) pattern, clearly breaking uptrend line. ✔️
6. Lower highs. ✔️
7. Lower lows. ✔️
8. Crown forming (lateral movement). ✔️
9. Estimated downside profit potential is at least three times the risk for if the initial stop-order were hit. ✔️
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
I encourage you to join me in being a lifelong student of the market. If you like this idea, please Like, Follow, and Leave a Comment!
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
PMs - PLATINUM - Fractal ApplicationIntroduction to Fractals:
Although prices may appear to be random, they actually create repeating patterns and trends. One of the most basic repeating patterns is a fractal. Fractals refer to a recurring pattern that occurs amid larger more chaotic price movements.
- Taken from Investopedia
Fundamentals Notes:
- Initially, inverse correlation with stock market, but Platinum reaps the benefits of industrial use in clean energy strategies, we foresee a decline in the stock markets until EOY, and recovering early 2021. PMs' technicals seem to support this sentiment.
- Interestingly, there was a consolidation and accumulation period from 2015-2019, and the automatic rally from the last sell-off in March 2020 was used as a spring to achieve new local highs, but this type of pattern typically results in a decline, once distribution has ended.
- However, we are in a greater trend, and while it seems that we have entered a higher channel, volatile sell-offs can be seen as bearish , and we believe the decline will continue once the short squeezing wash-out is over and retail excess diminishes, and support will be tested before further decision.
I posted a forecast previously, but I liked the Fractal Application, so I decided to make it its own idea. Link:
My Wyckoff Method Application post, which this strategy builds on:
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
STOCKS - Hexagon CompositesModel Forecast for HEX.OL:
- Model had produced entry signals for PLATINUM previously.
- Model has produced bullish signals for HEX.OL.
- The Hydrogen Strategies market and Platinum are highly correlated.
- Technically bullish, with Automatic Rally + Wyckoff Spring off of Demand Zone, which has been tested 3 times.
- 52.40% potential gain in underlying to top of the channel.
- Excess to higher channels are highly likely, as we expect a Hydrogen Boom due to global Clean Energy initiatives. We believe this is an excellent entry point for companies that would benefit from such a boom cycle.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
BCH - Re-AccumulationLooking like BCH is in a re-accumulation
Key factors
* Decreasing Volatility and Volume
* Diminishing supply volume on tests to 600
* There is a weekly long term resistance around 490 which the price is sitting beautifully on.
I'll keep in short and sweet but if we can overcome the last supply bar on the 3rd of April it will signal bullish intent.
My game plan
* If price holds above 490 and overcomes the supply bar on 3rd April with either a strong break through resistance or no supply signatures I will open longs.
EOS - Liking more and moreThe underperforming EOS I have had my eye on for a long time and the behaviour of the price is lining up a potential huge upside.
In my opinion EOS has been in an accumulation phase since December 2018 and is on the verge of breaking out significantly with supply in strong hands.
I am a student of Wyckoff methodology and I love the principle of effort and result which can be seen very nicely with the two squares I have made on the chart (red and green).
Lets start with the square in red
* Hits 5.50 and is overcome by supply volume
* Demand is no where to be seen and price collapses very quickly
* Breaks through key level of 4.80 with increased volume and spread.
* A classic tee-pee formation of bearish quality
By using logic alone we see supply was just to strong with very weak demand. Notice there is some demand on the way up but supply is presented to the market with the increased volume at the top resulting in a mighty fall which culminates in the March low.
Now, the green square
* Hits 5.50 and reacts BUT supply is absorbed.
* Massive increases in Volume. Supply is present here but demand is stronger.
* Demand is supporting price in a way not seen before from this price level.
* Two quick price moves above 4.80 - 1st price move fell below but demand came in quickly and supply dissipated. 2nd time we have support (at the moment - need to wait and see)
What I see is an accumulation in strong hands by the massive increase in effort with little to no meaningful result to the downside. When supply is fully absorbed a small volume will result in a large jump and hence I believe the potential for the coin is huge.
My game plan
* Find support above 4.80 in a minor re-accumulation with a continued move to 8.0 as a sign of strength. We break 8.0 level and 20.0+ is on the cards.
Wyckoff-method | Bitcoin to 1k | JBPredictionsThis is what I see in bitcoin, and it is the reason because I am a bear on bitcoin.
For me, looks like we're at the top of the phase B.
If you want to see as Elliot's waves.
We're at the end of the 5th waves. ABC corrections with extensive C... should bring bitcoin to the 1k-2k zone.
If I am wrong, I'll feel well, because my altcoins will be worth too.
If I am right, I'll feel well, because I will buy bitcoin cheaper than now (and just wait more time holding alts, at the same time buying cheaper)
We will see at 1k before 2030...
For trading: 5-7k
For holding: 650, 1k, 2k
Targets: 600k. 1MM. 2MM
Wyckoff Accumulation done?Seems like the first Wyckoff phase is done for the cycle - broken above short term downgoing trendline, and climbed above the high-volume node on a weekly close.
Expecting Markup phase until EOY
4 Malaysia Stocks To Watch During Sector Rotation Traders often have no idea what to do during market correction or sector rotation because their stocks are in a losing position. Also, they struggle to find stocks that are bucking the trend.
In this video, you will find out these 4 Malaysia stocks - MYX:CCK , MYX:DAYANG , MYX:OSK and MYX:SDS that outperform the market during the sector rotation and how to take advantage from these stocks by trading the pullback or trading the breakout.
Bear Case for NVDANASDAQ:NVDA Take a look at NVDA on the Daily timeframe. It had a nice consolidation at the top, that looks a lot like distribution. It had a failed rally and then started to come down and test support and then another rally, this time on lower volume which is where we are right now. I failure to hold support in the 475 range could be the break needed for the mark down. This is based off the Wyckoff theory of accumulation and distribution. A hold above 475 and a break of the green trend line would invalidate this thesis.
BTC 12h Wyckoff Distribution SchematicSharing this as a cautionary tale looking at the larger perspective on the BTC 12h. It appears to have printed the first ticks in the Wyckoff distribution pattern. It would take several weeks for this to play out, but remains a signal be be careful.
Interesting to note that ETH and LTC did not print this pattern as they did not get HH after the last major consolidation. Perhaps we could see again what we saw in 2017 with major ETH and LTC runs following BTC's decline.
Something I will be keeping an eye on over the next couple of weeks.
BTTUSD - Wyckoff Schematic - Are Professional Hands in Control? Are professional hands in control? Is a distribution schematic forming?
The bullish pattern has been breached with BTTUSDC having been at an all time high.
I have 3 points of interest to re-enter at dependent on how things play out with my lowest being .002.
I am interested in holding this coin long term.
Look forward to any comments, thoughts!
4 Malaysia Banking Stocks Poised To Breakout Despite the correction of the technology sector, the banking stocks in Malaysia are gaining strength thanks to the rising treasury yields. In fact, these 4 bank stocks MYX:CIMB , MYX:KENANGA , MYX:RHBBANK and MYX:PBBANK are poised to breakout from the accumulation structure.
Find out how to benefit from these outperforming stocks by trading at the key levels for low risk entry via either pullback trading or breakout trading.
Bitcoin, MARA, RIOT Set To Breakout To All Time High?Since a month ago, OTC:GBTC had a reaction dropping 26% from its peak with increasing supply. However, there are a number of bullish characteristics formed after the sell-off. These are the tell-tale signs for trend trading to ride on the strong trend of BINANCE:BTCUSDT .
Find out why BITFINEX:BTCUSD is set to breakout and how to benefit before it makes the explosive gains by trading Bitcoin or stocks like NASDAQ:MARA and NASDAQ:RIOT . Key support and resistance levels are elaborated in the video for low risk entry via trading the breakout or trading the pullback.
BA > BuyBA > Buy
> On this price close to break Phase C LPS Wyckoff accumulation.
> Buy follows a trend on this price.
> Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.87
BTC making HISTORY AGAIN - WyckoffEveryone knows that Bitcoin is getting hotter this year, but let's keep this analysis short as the most important information is on the chart.
This analysis is based on Wyckoff ideas, we could be in front of a Distribution phase, as BTC has been in an upward trend for so long without any noted distribution (people, or I should say financial entities, taking their money off and selling their positions).
We first saw a STOP followed by a fast down trend ( AR ) that ended leaving us with two important support lines who were supported during the whole phase excepting an small spring with irrelevant volume ( this shows that great plays are not taking place ), then prices went up to the secondary support line, to finally rise with SMA in their favor.
In that moment we could see prices breaking the STOP resistance with no volume at all, which is a clear indicator that demand is not interested to push prices up again, but the thing is that supply is not getting in play for the moment and that is the reason why prices did not went all the way down.
But we could see that Upthrust as a moment when people sold all of their positions, but again we did not saw the volume that should be related.
Now prices are trying again to rise, but there is one thing clear, prices will not go further without any volume supporting the movement.
Hope you have a great day.
CRYPTO - RIOT - The Wyckoff MethodWyckoff Method Application:
Hello everyone, DPT here. I love analysis, and I love to learn about and trade using theories and frameworks Dow Theory, Elliot Wave Theory, Action Reaction, and others, as I develop my own methodology... Today, I spotted a very good fit for the Wyckoff Method for a trade setup, and I wanted to share this with you. There are a few steps omitted, but I included the article which I used as reference so you can follow along, or use it as a template for your own trades. This is not financial advice, just an informational!
5 Step Approach to the Market:
1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market.
- Currently swinging bearish:
2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend.
- RIOT is known to follow BTCUSD, as it is a BTC miner!
3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective.
- I have high conviction that BTC is (a) on a downtrend with more downside, (b) RIOT has yet to price this in.
4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move.
- TA Oscillators and Moving Averages show that the stock is ready for a move to the downside.
5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index.
- I have high conviction that the stock market index will also see downside in the nearest future:
Three Wyckoff Laws:
1. The law of supply and demand determines the price direction.
2. The law of cause and effect. (BTC and stock market downtrend, yet to fully be realized by RIOT).
3. The law of effort.
Analyses of Trading Ranges:
- Trading ranges (TRs) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand. Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR.
Wyckoff Schematics:
- A successful Wyckoff analyst must be able to anticipate and correctly judge the direction and magnitude of the move out of a TR. Fortunately, Wyckoff offers time-tested guidelines for identifying and delineating the phases and events within a TR, which, in turn, provide the basis for estimating price targets in the subsequent trend.
Nine Buying/Selling Tests:
FYI - I won't be using a P&F chart.
1. Upside objective accomplished. ✔️
2. Activity bearish (volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions). ✔️
3. Preliminary supply, buying climax. ✔️
4. Stock weaker than the market (that is, more responsive than the market on reactions and sluggish on rallies). Stock did not make new high, when BTC made a new ATH! ✔️
5. Upward stride broken (that is, support line or uptrend line penetrated). Currently in the beginning of a descending scallop (scythe) pattern, clearly breaking uptrend line. ✔️
6. Lower highs. ✔️
7. Lower lows. ✔️
8. Crown forming (lateral movement). ✔️
9. Estimated downside profit potential is at least three times the risk for if the initial stop-order were hit. ✔️
STRATEGY:
- Entry: 63
- SL: 87
- TP1: 47
- TP2: 38
- PT: 23
- RRR: 1.71
- Timeframe: 45d
- TRIGGER:
1. Confirmed rejection at this resistance.
2. BTC continued downtrend.
3. Increasing sell pressure.
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
As always, if you enjoy this post, please Like, Follow, Leave a message... GLHF!
- DPT
Riding the Strong Trend of these Top 4 Industrial StocksDespite the sell-off in NASDAQ, Dow Jones index has hit new high. Industrial stocks lead the market higher as they are benefiting from the economy recovery.
Find out these top 4 stocks NASDAQ:GLDD , NYSE:MTZ , NYSE:NOA , NYSE:ORN in the heavy construction group that are in the perfect price structure for swing trading while riding and leading the economy recovery theme.
