Wyckoff's Accumulation Scheme on BTCUSDThis is an interesting but bold way of applying one of Wyckoff's schematics on the BTC/USD chart.
Interesting for it's exactly the same accumulation pattern, and bold because this was meant to be applied on higher time frames. Therefore, I don't suggest trading this, only posting it for educational purposes.
As you see, the scheme is broken down into different sections in which I'll explain each step.
Phase A:
Preliminary Support (PS) was broken through by the huge selling power of the bears. Bears tire out from the intense selling and eventually reach Selling Climax (SC). Bulls intensely buying the bottom causing an Automatic Rally (AR) and bouncing up from the bottom. Bulls take profits and the market come back down for a Secondary Test (ST).
Phase B:
Uncertainty hits in as bears think the bottom is hit and bulls are worried that it might fall further. The price consolidates and ranges between the AR and ST zones testing them multiple times.
Phase C:
This is a critical level in the accumulation phase as everything depends on if the support level manages to hold or not. In the case of this example, the Spring is a bear trap to mislead buyers before the price launches up and everybody that accumulated in Phase A and B gets rewarded.
Phase D:
We see higher trading volume and confidence in upward momentum. Price starts making higher lows and showing the Last Point Support (LPS). Price is making higher highs which shows Signs of Strength (SOS), previous resistance zones are broken through and become supports. Retest on the new support level then gives another buying opportunity for bulls to join the ride.
Phase E:
Increased demand and confidence is shown in the market as it makes higher highs and turns into an upward trend.
Once again, this post is purely for educational purposes. Taking this trade is risky as it is unsure if this was to play out on the insignificant 1H timeframe.
Wyckoffmethod
UWMC - not out of the woods just yetShort-term bullish on UWMC, but expecting new All time Lows afterwards.
Seems like a Wyckoff accumulation phase is currently evolving - expecting the following to happen:
1. Hype before Q1 statement, driving prices up - supported by other relief rallies in other SPACS
2. Q1 Statement released, fomo buys made by people expecting 10$ to break
3. Short term rally in 10Y-Yields, leading to fear towards investing in mortgage companies
4. New all time lows, Fomo buyers from step 2 capitulates and sells
5. All time low acting as "spring", thus marking the final stage of the accumulation phase. Just when capitulation happens, Russell Inclusion news acts as "reason" for spring to evolve to a jump up in price
6. Sign of strength appears, reaccumulation follows, and markup phase begins.
This is of course just my view, and I expect about a 5-10% chance of the scenario playing out just like mentioned above.
Oscar Properties adjusted Wyckoff eventsMessed up the the sub-event previously, but after positive FA events, I expect this updated view as a possibility.
Large insider buying recently, and 2 upcoming financial reports only 1,5 months apart could lead to a "Buy the rumor sell the news" followed by "retest of support"/"reaccumulation"/"letting MA's catch up"/"shakeout" - call it what you want, but the chart seems pretty bullish ATM, in my humble opinion.
Be careful, OP is an extremely volatile stock.
Buy Signals for Malaysia Stocks Samchem, Samaiden, RLBuy signals have been spotted for Malaysia stocks MYX:SAMCHEM , MYX:SAMAIDEN and MYX:RL (Reservoir Link Energy). Will the bonus issues of shares and warrants act as a catalyst?
In this video, you will find out how to participate these strong momentum stocks before the explosive move happens.
CG, COTY, IPG, MET Just Started Bull Run (Buy Signals Spotted)After forming a Wyckoff re-accumulation structure, NASDAQ:CG , NYSE:COTY , NYSE:IPG and NYSE:MET just started a bull run with buy signals spotted.
In this video, you will find out how to participate right at the beginning of this uptrend with simple breakout trading or pullback trading strategy.
Wyckoff Yöntemi CR Binance AcademyA Fazı
İlk faz, yerleşmiş bir yükseliş trendinin azalan talep nedeniyle yavaşlamaya başlamasıyla ortaya çıkar. Öncü Arz (Preliminary Supply (PSY)) satış gücünün kendini göstermeye başladığını işaret eder ancak halen yükseliş trendini durdurmaya yetecek kadar güçlü değildir. Daha sonra yoğun bir alım faaliyeti sonucunda Alım Zirvesi (Buying Climax (BC)) oluşur. Bu genellikle deneyimsiz tacirlerin duygusal alımlarından kaynaklanır.
Daha sonra, aşırı talep piyasa yapıcılar tarafından karşılandıkça, yukarı yönlü güçlü hareket bir Otomatik Reaksiyona (Automatic Reaction (AR)) neden olur. Bir diğer deyişle Kompozit Adam varlıklarını geç gelen alıcılara dağıtmaya başlar. İkinci Test (Secondary Test (ST)) piyasa yeniden BC bölgesine ulaştığında ve genellikle daha düşük bir tepe noktası oluşturduğunda ortaya çıkar.
B Fazı
Dağıtımın B Fazı düşüş trendinin (Sonuç) öncesinde oluşarak bir birikim bölgesi (Neden) gibi hareket eder. Bu faz boyunca Kompozit Adam kademeli olarak varlıklarını satar ve piyasa talebini absorbe ederek zayıflatır.
Genellikle, alım satım aralığının üst ve alt bantları defalarca test edilir ve bu süreç kısa vadeli ayı ve boğa tuzakları içerebilir. Piyasa bazen Alım Zirvesi (BC) tarafından oluşturulan direnç seviyesinin üstüne çıkarak Yükselme (Upthrust (UT)) olarak da adlandırılan bir İkinci Test'e (ST) sebep olabilir.
C Fazı
Bazı durumlarda piyasa, birikim fazının ardından son bir boğa tuzağı daha sunabilir. Buna Dağıtım Sonrası Yükselme (Upthrust After Distribution)(UTAD)) denir. UTAD temelde, Birikim sürecindeki Spring'in tersidir.
D Fazı
Dağıtımın D Fazı Birikimdeki D Fazının neredeyse ayna görüntüsü gibidir. Genellikle aralığın ortasında bir Son Arz Noktası (Last Point of Supply (LPSY)) yer alır ve daha düşük bir tepe oluşturur. Bu noktadan destek bölgesinin etrafında ya da altında yeni LPSY'ler oluşur. Piyasa, destek çizgilerinin altına indiğinde belirgin bir Zayıflık Noktası (Sign of Weakness (SOW)) ortaya çıkar.
E Fazı
Dağıtımın son fazı düşüş trendinin başlangıcını işaret eder. Talebe kıyasla arzın güçlü egemenliği sonucu alım satım aralığının belirgin şekilde kırıldığı görülür.
Average Up as a Trading StrategyThe average up strategy provides Huge wins, Small losses and Risk minimized.
Use RANGE-CHART for this, so you could see the Buy setups more easily with less noise or time distortion.
First
You look for a buy setup, one that you believe that price should move rapidly from your starting buy point (you expect ab big relative move).
Second
You add up position. Every trader should use his own risk management based on his account size and what he is comfortable with,
BUT...
The position units you add have to be in the SAME SIZE! If they are not in the same size, the break-even point will not move up as I showed in the chart.
Side note: experience traders can play with the portions of the positions, so they can manipulate the break-even point as they wish...
In the first case on the chart (the idea was wrong), the position stopped out with 3 units of loss.
In the second case on the chart (the idea was right), the price from a certain point moved away from the break-even point,
which means that you were GREEN the whole time in the trade (when you had a relatively big position).
You had "AIR" to hold this huge position.
Many great traders used the average-up strategy: Jesse Livermore, Richard Wyckoff, Nicolas Darvas.
If you are right, you are right in the biggest position possible => you have a huge win of 45 UNITS.
if you are wrong, you are wrong in the small position => you have a small loss of 3 UNITS.
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Bottom-line profit => 42 UNITS of profit $$$$
If you like this educational, let me know in the comments, and like it, so it will be saved on your liked ideas.
NZDUSD: 2 views, both bearishHi Traders,
This is my view on #NZDUSD for the next few days.
2 possible ways, both bearish but the first one on the touch of 0.78 Supply Area, the second one (the one I prefer) on the breakout and retesting of the Signal of Weakness on 0.70, which is close to the daily bullish trend line.
Thanks to my dear friend Richard Wyckoff ;-)
I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected.
If you follow my strategy you will be able to identify the right filters and triggers to enter correctly the market and avoid fake signals.
I really hope you liked this video and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below this video to give me your point of view.
Thank You
———————————
Pietro from Trading Kitchen
ADOBE possible FLAG formation !The technology sector is preparing to make a new high.
Many stocks are after a consolidation period since September.
We can clearly see that ADBE testing its highest high , so watch it.
As always, diversify.
If the flag pattern will follow through a big move is about to happen, one that worth risking on a trade.
Previous pulse waves were relatively smooth.
Side note: if you are familiar with Wyckoff theory, SPRING just happened in March... which is also a possible positive sign for a shoot up :)
ENJ forecastJAC after spring formed at 2.7$, TP was $4 for a lot of people. $3 act as recent support, LPS at $2.5, expect lower low will be formed at $2.6-2.8. $2.8 would be good price for entry. Look for confirmation and momentum shift in 15mins - if still bearish price can go as low as $2.3 to fill imbalance
CRYPTO - BTC - The Wyckoff Method #2Wyckoff Method Application:
Hello everyone, I spotted another great application for the Wyckoff Method, this time using Distribution Schematic #2. I caution bulls, as I believe that we are at the end of an exuberance phase and now Reward and Risk have inverted for Longs! I personally think that the price can go sub 10k very quickly, and 20k~ is a likely bottom. Trade with care...
But without further ado, Here we go!
5 Step Approach to the Market:
1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market.
- Currently swinging bearish, and I believe I have determined the whale operating on this market's trade setup:
2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend.
- Bitcoin is a leading indicator for the crypto market, but it is led by investors' risk appetite. I am bearish on the market, and I believe that US10Y yields will hit 2% again in the nearest future (which inverts the market, and consequently, the crypto market):
- My previous Wyckoff Idea (RIOT) being validated to TP1 gives me further confidence in my logic tree of assumption, and gives me the conviction to add to short positions on the previously powerful bull market:
3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective.
- I have high conviction that (a) BTC has ended its uptrend and is currently in a distribution phase, and (b) I speculate that the macro trend is about to reverse.
- My minimum objective is to use BTC as a leading indicator for crypto related instruments.
DXY:
4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move.
- TA shows that the stock is ready for a move to the downside (I won't be sharing all of my tells).
5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index.
- I have high conviction that the stock market index will also see downside in the nearest future:
Three Wyckoff Laws:
1. The law of supply and demand determines the price direction.
2. The law of cause and effect.
3. The law of effort.
Analyses of Trading Ranges:
- Trading ranges ( TRs ) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand . Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR .
Wyckoff Schematics:
- A successful Wyckoff analyst must be able to anticipate and correctly judge the direction and magnitude of the move out of a TR . Fortunately, Wyckoff offers time-tested guidelines for identifying and delineating the phases and events within a TR , which, in turn, provide the basis for estimating price targets in the subsequent trend.
Nine Buying/Selling Tests:
FYI - I won't be using a P&F chart.
1. Upside objective accomplished. ✔️
2. Activity bearish ( volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions). ✔️
3. Preliminary supply, buying climax. ✔️
4. Stock weaker than the market (that is, more responsive than the market on reactions and sluggish on rallies). Stock did not make new high, when BTC made a new ATH! ✔️
5. Upward stride broken (that is, support line or uptrend line penetrated). Currently in the beginning of a descending scallop (scythe) pattern, clearly breaking uptrend line. ✔️
6. Lower highs. ✔️
7. Lower lows. ✔️
8. Crown forming (lateral movement). ✔️
9. Estimated downside profit potential is at least three times the risk for if the initial stop-order were hit. ✔️
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
I encourage you to join me in being a lifelong student of the market. If you like this idea, please Like, Follow, and Leave a Comment!
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
PMs - PLATINUM - Fractal ApplicationIntroduction to Fractals:
Although prices may appear to be random, they actually create repeating patterns and trends. One of the most basic repeating patterns is a fractal. Fractals refer to a recurring pattern that occurs amid larger more chaotic price movements.
- Taken from Investopedia
Fundamentals Notes:
- Initially, inverse correlation with stock market, but Platinum reaps the benefits of industrial use in clean energy strategies, we foresee a decline in the stock markets until EOY, and recovering early 2021. PMs' technicals seem to support this sentiment.
- Interestingly, there was a consolidation and accumulation period from 2015-2019, and the automatic rally from the last sell-off in March 2020 was used as a spring to achieve new local highs, but this type of pattern typically results in a decline, once distribution has ended.
- However, we are in a greater trend, and while it seems that we have entered a higher channel, volatile sell-offs can be seen as bearish , and we believe the decline will continue once the short squeezing wash-out is over and retail excess diminishes, and support will be tested before further decision.
I posted a forecast previously, but I liked the Fractal Application, so I decided to make it its own idea. Link:
My Wyckoff Method Application post, which this strategy builds on:
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
STOCKS - Hexagon CompositesModel Forecast for HEX.OL:
- Model had produced entry signals for PLATINUM previously.
- Model has produced bullish signals for HEX.OL.
- The Hydrogen Strategies market and Platinum are highly correlated.
- Technically bullish, with Automatic Rally + Wyckoff Spring off of Demand Zone, which has been tested 3 times.
- 52.40% potential gain in underlying to top of the channel.
- Excess to higher channels are highly likely, as we expect a Hydrogen Boom due to global Clean Energy initiatives. We believe this is an excellent entry point for companies that would benefit from such a boom cycle.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
BCH - Re-AccumulationLooking like BCH is in a re-accumulation
Key factors
* Decreasing Volatility and Volume
* Diminishing supply volume on tests to 600
* There is a weekly long term resistance around 490 which the price is sitting beautifully on.
I'll keep in short and sweet but if we can overcome the last supply bar on the 3rd of April it will signal bullish intent.
My game plan
* If price holds above 490 and overcomes the supply bar on 3rd April with either a strong break through resistance or no supply signatures I will open longs.
EOS - Liking more and moreThe underperforming EOS I have had my eye on for a long time and the behaviour of the price is lining up a potential huge upside.
In my opinion EOS has been in an accumulation phase since December 2018 and is on the verge of breaking out significantly with supply in strong hands.
I am a student of Wyckoff methodology and I love the principle of effort and result which can be seen very nicely with the two squares I have made on the chart (red and green).
Lets start with the square in red
* Hits 5.50 and is overcome by supply volume
* Demand is no where to be seen and price collapses very quickly
* Breaks through key level of 4.80 with increased volume and spread.
* A classic tee-pee formation of bearish quality
By using logic alone we see supply was just to strong with very weak demand. Notice there is some demand on the way up but supply is presented to the market with the increased volume at the top resulting in a mighty fall which culminates in the March low.
Now, the green square
* Hits 5.50 and reacts BUT supply is absorbed.
* Massive increases in Volume. Supply is present here but demand is stronger.
* Demand is supporting price in a way not seen before from this price level.
* Two quick price moves above 4.80 - 1st price move fell below but demand came in quickly and supply dissipated. 2nd time we have support (at the moment - need to wait and see)
What I see is an accumulation in strong hands by the massive increase in effort with little to no meaningful result to the downside. When supply is fully absorbed a small volume will result in a large jump and hence I believe the potential for the coin is huge.
My game plan
* Find support above 4.80 in a minor re-accumulation with a continued move to 8.0 as a sign of strength. We break 8.0 level and 20.0+ is on the cards.
Wyckoff-method | Bitcoin to 1k | JBPredictionsThis is what I see in bitcoin, and it is the reason because I am a bear on bitcoin.
For me, looks like we're at the top of the phase B.
If you want to see as Elliot's waves.
We're at the end of the 5th waves. ABC corrections with extensive C... should bring bitcoin to the 1k-2k zone.
If I am wrong, I'll feel well, because my altcoins will be worth too.
If I am right, I'll feel well, because I will buy bitcoin cheaper than now (and just wait more time holding alts, at the same time buying cheaper)
We will see at 1k before 2030...
For trading: 5-7k
For holding: 650, 1k, 2k
Targets: 600k. 1MM. 2MM