XAUUSD (Intra-Day) - Market outlookToday, the XAU/USD pair has ambiguous dynamics: growth to the 1985.50 mark was replaced by a decline in quotations and now the price is in the 1981.50 area. In general, the pressure on prices over the past few weeks is due to the expected tightening of monetary policy by the world's leading regulators. Today, the RBA has already done this by raising the interest rate by 25 basis points. During the week, investors expect the same actions from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), while the European regulator may increase the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points at once. The Bank of England may also adjust the value next week. The likely tightening of monetary policy in the world's leading economies puts pressure on alternative assets, including precious metals. On the other hand, the resolution of the crisis of the large American lender First Republic Bank restrains the fall in prices. Recall that all of its assets were purchased by JPMorgan Chase & Co., and First Republic Bank customers will now have full access to their deposits.
Wyckoffmethod
BTC/USD weekly timeframe analysisBTC Chart in the weekly timeframe, after setting an all time high ($19660) BTC has formed a Flag between $2,972 & $13,880. and had formed a very wide and long trading range !
As the formation of this flag, price has made a 2TB (2nd time back) to the lower FL and according to the huge buy orders which we can see in the candle formation, a new uptrend had started.
This uptrend was so strong that had engulfed the upper FL & ($19,666) SR line - & could cause a 1692% growth in the value of this asset and hit a new ATH of $64,895 !
After engulfing the FL, a new FTR was formed ($16,218-$19490) which in general we can call this a Decision Point for the green FL zone. We must consider this zone very important as it has been formed by breaking the SR lines and engulfing the previous FLs.
Next, price formed a new Flag between $28.800 - $64,895. We must take into consideration that in the first Pullback to the lower FL price engulfed this zone which was a sign of an end for the latest uptrend for the price of BTC ! And then we can see the price faking out of the Red FL zone in order to collect liquidities.
As you can see in the chart, after price descending under the FL and engulfing the SR lines, it has formed a new zone called FTR that is actually the DP for the engulfed FL zone.
In the big picture we could see a Wyckoff being formed which is a sign of change in the trend of price to a downtrend.
Then , price fell to the MPL zone of the previous FTR/DP and was supported to rise higher, but as there were huge sell orders after a tight compression, price made a pullback to the FTR in the lower TF and continued to fall to the point that it engulfed the MPL zone by crossing down $16,000.
ZLSMA Indicator predictions : Bullish🚀n the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, staying ahead of market trends is crucial. The Zero Lag Simple Moving Average (ZLSMA) indicator has emerged as a remarkable tool known for its ability to predict trend changes, particularly in identifying bullish trends. In this post, we'll delve into the exceptional predictive power of the ZLSMA indicator, focusing on its third signal, which often heralds the onset of a bullish trend.
Deciphering the ZLSMA Indicator:
The Zero Lag Simple Moving Average (ZLSMA) is a modified version of the traditional Simple Moving Average (SMA).
What truly sets the ZLSMA apart is its minimal lag, allowing it to respond swiftly to price changes and provide early signals.
The Third Signal: A Bullish Transformation
The ZLSMA indicator typically offers three primary signals.
The third signal, often the most powerful, indicates a shift in the market sentiment towards a bullish trend.
Strengths of the ZLSMA Indicator:
Reduced Lag: Unlike conventional SMAs, the ZLSMA minimizes lag, ensuring that you receive timely signals when a trend change is imminent.
Enhanced Accuracy: Its rapid response to price movements enhances the accuracy of trend identification.
Early Bullish Signals: The third signal of the ZLSMA indicator is particularly notable for its ability to identify the beginning of a bullish trend.
How to Leverage the ZLSMA Indicator:
Confirmation: Always combine the ZLSMA signal with other technical and fundamental analysis for confirmation.
Risk Management: Implement sound risk management strategies to protect your investments.
Continuous Learning: Stay updated with the latest market developments and continuously refine your trading approach.
In conclusion, the Zero Lag Simple Moving Average (ZLSMA) indicator's third signal is a potent predictor of bullish trend changes. While it's a valuable tool, prudent traders combine it with other analysis methods and manage risk effectively. By understanding and utilizing the power of the ZLSMA indicator, you can enhance your cryptocurrency trading strategy and capture bullish trends with confidence. 📊💹
❗See related ideas below❗
Like, share, and share your thoughts in the comments! Your engagement fuels our crypto discussions. 💚🚀💚
Call your Mom; Stocks BLOODBATH LoadingHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
Is the mother of all shorts loading for the stock market? Seems likely!
A lower-high topout confirms that selling pressure dominates as we observe the perfect Wyckoff Method failed breakout (which happens before the bearish cycle).
This means the stock market as a whole will likely experience liquidations soon, driving the price of most stocks into a bearish cycle.
If we pull up a macro Fibonacci Extension, we'll see a perfect top-out at the 4.618 extension, which is always an important one to watch.
NOTE that I am not advocating to SHORT your stocks here. Instead, think of it as a potential opportunity to buy additional at lower prices in the NEAR TERM.
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
Walmart recession by Wyckoff analysisA) Max price with a lower volume than pandemic
B) Break failed, volume decreasing post pandemic
C) Another test to resistance should occur
D) Walmart adjusting to reality
E) Price should break the support with a big volume
F) Final track to the next Support at 80-75
TOTAL & BTC: Guide to Trend Line AnalysisHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
One of the most important parts of trading is following the macro phase and planning your trades. The only way to do this, is to pre-identify the macro market cycle that's currently playing out, as well as determine key zones of support and resistance. You do this by drawing up trend lines on the chart, from a macro perspective.
Here's a comprehensive Guide to Elliot Wave Theory, done on ETH :
To summarize if you're short on time, Elliot wave identifies upward and downward phases during an overall bullish or bearish cycle. Wave 1-2 can often correct a near 50% from starting point of wave 0-1. This means the price can drop -50%, and you would still be in a bullish cycle .
Now that we've discussed Elliot waves, we can also take a quick look at Wyckoff Method for BTC, which I did over here:
In other words, don't be scared of corrections! Wait and plan your trade. There's no need to force a trade. If you have identified your support and resistance zones with diagonal and horizontal trend lines, you can wait for the price to reach your target and execute a brilliant trade with a great risk-reward setup.
Trying to find confluence on the chartUsing Wyckoff concepts and Elliots.
With Wyckoff, having another spring and liquidity grab is important, with Elliot, its can get to 50% fib and rally.
Wyckoff method for GoldAs you can see we are on phase B and C in the Wyckoff method on Gold right now, i think it will take a bit time to complete.
—————————
The Wyckoff Method involves a five-step approach to stock selection and trade entry, which can be summarized as follows:
1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Is the market consolidating or trending? Does your analysis of market structure, supply, and demand indicate the direction that is likely in the near future? This assessment should help you decide whether to be in the market at all and, if so, whether to take long or short positions. Use bar charts and Point and Figure charts of the major market indices for Step 1.
2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend. In an uptrend, select stocks that are stronger than the market. For instance, look for stocks demonstrating greater percentage increases than the market during rallies and smaller decreases during reactions. In a downtrend, do the reverse—choose stocks weaker than the market. If you aren't sure about a specific issue, drop it and move on to the next one. Use bar charts of individual stocks to compare with those of the most relevant market index for Step 2.
3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective. A critical component of Wyckoff's trade selection and management was his unique method of identifying price targets using Point and Figure (P&F) projections for long and short trades. In Wyckoff's fundamental law of “Cause and Effect,” the horizontal P&F count within a trading range represents the cause, while the subsequent price movement represents the effect. So, if you're planning to take long positions, choose stocks that are under accumulation or re-accumulation and have built a sufficient cause to satisfy your objective. Step 3 relies on the use of Point and Figure charts of individual stocks.
4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move. Apply the nine tests for buying or selling (described below). For instance, in a trading range after a prolonged rally, does the evidence from the nine selling tests suggest that significant supply is entering the market and that a short position may be warranted? Or in an apparent accumulation trading range, do the nine buying tests indicate that supply has been successfully absorbed, as evidenced further by a low-volume spring and an even lower-volume test of that spring? Use bar charts and Point and Figure charts of individual stocks for Step 4.
5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index. Three-quarters or more of individual issues move in sync with the overall market. So, you improve the odds of a successful trade by having the power of the overall market behind it. Specific Wyckoff principles help anticipate potential market turns, including a change of character of price action (such as the largest down-bar on the highest volume after a long uptrend), and manifestations of Wyckoff's three laws (see below). Put your stop-loss in place and trail it, as appropriate, until you close out the position. Use bar and Point and Figure charts for Step 5
Solana going for a recovery ! Okay traders hope you have a great weekend !
after a unusual drop in November price recovered very soon with a very good strength ! but it trapped in long term side way !
but its a good thing and why is that ! it shows us that the price does not want to see that lower prices anymore !
so the price tested the key level of the previous drop and ready to go up !
BILI right here.... this will be my 5th trade in this series.If you don't know I love BILI both as an anime company and because of its lovely predictable stock price movements.... I am not saying this can't revisit $8 like it did when I got in at $15 however, it glimpsed $8 and came back to profitable in about a week.... and I don't really do option calls for less time than that unless its a short. Bili had decent earnings which I believe they used to stop the bleeding.... Magically right in my target zone. If you haven't been following go look at my previous calls and puts on Bili. I am like a Bili whisperer... lol I put the 20 min chart on here so you can see a fair good amount of price action... The long term is doo doo on this because its been bleeding for over 5 months. This would be catching a falling blade. I have a 7 day right now for teasers to see if it will move or not. if it does start to move I will wait for a pull back and jump in again. Price Target Upper $28-29 range. Might take profits 20s and 25 range and leave runners.
p.s. I am not saying just jump in blindly... I am saying this is where It peaks my interest. Trade at your own risk. Don't use money you can't afford to lose.
I will leave you with a quote from Cable Guy, " OH! Bili........."
by iCantw84it
06.02.2023
C3.AI: AI = SHORT - wyckoff distribution & bearish divergence1st - Bearish Divergence: RSI & MFI on 1D & 1W chart
2nd - Wyckoff Method: Distribution TR phase C (UTAD TEST) more pronounced in the 4&1H charts.
Analysis:
There seems to be weakness in the stock, and despite the recent highs and uptick in volume the exhaustion can be seen per the TA presented. BUT REMEMBER, the AI craze is still on going and this could be invalidated in minutes if the whales choose to push the price higher.
Targets if you trust the analysis:
Its pretty simple, I use fib retracement levels 21% and 38.2% as targets.
remember to use risk management and positioning!
*THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE, JUST SHARING MY ANALYSIS AND INTERNAL THOUGHTS TO MYSELF*
Palantir's share price could easily double from here!This idea is based on Wyckoff's method. The Point $ Figure accumulation count serves as a way to determine the target objective based on the accumulation count in the base.
All other information is in the chart.
NQdecipher
Hope for BitcoinAs you can see Bitcoin is currently heading to the downside, which I believe will stop at the Fibonacci level.
This is because if Bitcoin dumps to the Fibonacci level in the next few days, it will cause Bitcoin to temporary break the current trend.
At which if Bitcoin bounces off the Fibonacci level, the spring action will be formed.
And then from there I believe Bitcoin will be able to break the current trend to the upside.
All comments will be appreciated.
Part II of BABA thesis using Wyckoff phases and volume analysisThis Idea is part II to the previously published BABA idea using Wyckoff's accumulation method. This idea includes the identification of the different Wyckoff accumulation phases and the characteristic accompanying volume analysis.
All information is on the chart!
NQdecipher
ABBV more probable to go down first before reaching ATHThis idea is based on Wyckoff's method for determining price objectives using the Point & Figure count of distribution ranges. We can a distribution ranges following schematic 2 for Wyckoff's distribution.
If we take count the ranges separately, this yields a potential reversal zone between 118.50 and 94.50 dollar per share.
Personally I am intend to buy if price reached 106.50 (mid point)
All other information is on the chart.
Good luck,
NQDecipher
TARGET has more room to the downside, reversal zone identifiedThis idea is based on Wyckoff's method for determining price objectives using the Point & Figure count of distribution ranges. We can see multiple distribution ranges following both schematic 1 and schematic 2 for Wyckoff's distribution.
If we take count the ranges separately, this yields a potential reversal zone between 105.5 and 84.50 dollar per share.
All other information is on the chart.
Good luck,
NQDecipher
Dollar General has more downside and reversal zone identifiedThis idea is based on Wyckoff's method for determining price objectives using the Point & Figure count of the distribution ranges. We can see a complex distribution range existing of 2 different types of distribution patterns at the top.
The yellow range is based on Wyckoff's distribution schematic 1 and the white range is showing a type 2 distribution schematic.
If we take count the ranges separately, this yields a potential reversal zone between 108.50 and 89.50 dollar per share.
All other information is on the chart.
Good luck,
NQDecipher