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Wyckoffmethod

How Wyckoff & Elliot Wave Theory applied togetherMaybe this near "full-stack" technical analysis using Wyckoff and Elliot Theory along with relevant indicators such as Moving Average and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) will puzzled some of the traders who used to have a simpler analysis on the market. But to those who curious this is something that is really interesting to know. The chart above is showing us how the two theories can be complementary to each other. Lets analyze the chart above of BTC/USD in 4h timeframe from left to right comprehensively based on the Wyckoff phases of the 2nd accumulation model. Phase A: During the early November of 2022, BTC was under heavy sell-off after Binance dumping hard on FTX where the price crossunder 200 EMA and 100 SMA. The waterfall crash of BTC was printing a 5-wave of zigzag wave. We can see that the lowest point of wave 3 shows the highest selling volume in a single 4h HA candle and also act as Preliminary Support (PS) where then I put the 1st support line there. The sell-off continue to form the last zigzag wave where we can see multiple high selling volume bars and made a very deep negative cumulative volume delta in which it represents as Selling Climax (SC) in Wyckoff. A massive buying then occurred which immediately push the price back up to the wave 4 of zigzag wave area, which in Wyckoff we can name it as Automatic Rally (AR). By using these to extreme high of AR and low of SC we can draw a rectangle to have a better view on the consolidation area. After the dramatic push and pull of price, the market volume gradually decreasing followed by price having a contracting highs and lows, forming a classic contracting triangle, where we can see some of the lows are respecting the 2nd support line. Phase B: The end of contracting triangle followed by another zigzag wave of smaller degree, where it breaks the 2nd support line and creating the second lowest low which we can name it as Secondary Test (ST) that the selling volume is much smaller hence also creating a shallower negative CVD. Price then go up back to the 2nd support line and able to reach back to 100 SMA although still not able to candle close it on the first attempt but eventually able to close it on the second attempt. Price then going on a small rally creating an ascending channel of 5-wave leading diagonal and able to close above the 1st support line, the 200 EMA and even able to make a higher high. But the volume is still not enough to make a change of character breakout. Phase C: The mini rally is identified as the 1st wave of primary impulsive wave, so the reactionary move where the price breaking down the ascending channel, the 1st support line, 200 EMA and 100 SMA and going back down to the 2nd support line can be identified as wave 2. Most of phase C volume going under the Volume Mean Level, it is the lowest volume of all of the phases. Combination of multiple minor corrective waves creating a WXY wave and we can see the 2nd support line is holding the price quite well where it represents as Last Point of Support (LPS). Phase D: The volume and price gradually moving up and able to close above 100 SMA and 200 EMA, then going higher to 1st support line with higher volume to a point of Show of Strength (SOS) where a change of character breakout is formed and also breaking out from the box or the whole Trending Range. Phase D is the perfect time to make an entry. The identifying of the first two waves of an impulsive move also creating a high confidence that we are entering the wave 3 or we can also call it as the money wave. Phase E: Just enjoy the rally This whole chart actually representing a very textbook Wyckoff Theory of the 2nd Accumulation Model and we can also see in this chart the transition between corrective wave and motive wave of Elliot Wave Theory. In Phase A and the early Phase B, the corrective wave is on its end, where the rest of the Phase B to E we can see how the scaffoldings of early structure of an impulsive move is constructed. making a consolidating of accumulation before going a strong trending move. Wyckoff explains this transition of corrective wave to a motive wave in a beautiful way and surely we can also use it on the transition of motive wave to a corrective wave using the distribution model. This is just one variation where we can use Elliot and Wyckoff hand in hand in order to have a much better technical analysis on the market and maybe this combined analysis that I made on the above chart could be the best scenario to apply for both theories. Hopefully this helps to educate for anyone of you who read this post, thank you
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by derahmanov
WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION GBPUSDFor the past couple of days, GBPUSD has been ranging with some wide swings . Anytime price consolidates, we refer back to the Wyckoff's Theory to understand what's happening and where price is likely to head next. After the 3rd hit to support level, the pound finally dropped . We know the purpose of this drop and what happens next. However, the pound has now breached the 1.20 to 1.30 Quarter Points, which gets me thinking, will the pound reach the 1.75 LQP ? I sit on my hands with this one to see how price will play out. Beaucoup Out
Long
by BeaucoupPips
Bitcoin - Wyckoff Method Phase B ?Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. With this chart, we aim to identify the current phase of Bitcoin / BTCUSD / BTCUSDT by using the Wyckoff Method . The Wyckoff Method can be extremely technical and complicated, with many phases, sub-phases, sub sub phases etc. The four main phases of the market cycle are accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown . On this specific chart, we're taking a look at the accumulation cycle . If we look at the two image examples provided and combine them with Fibonacci time cycles, Phase B could last up until September 2023, or towards Q4 of this year. What is means for BTC now, is that we can still see an extended period of range trading for the next few months. Here are some terms and definitions you may find helpful : PS—preliminary support - where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax - the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC , reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally - which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test - in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC . It is common to have multiple STs after a SC . SOS - sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume . Often a SOS takes place after a spring , validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. LPS - last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume . On some charts, there may be more than one LPS , despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU - “back-up”. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level. Furthermore, a brief look at the phases: Phase A Marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. Selling climax ( SC ) occurs here. Phase B Institutions and large professional interests are accumulating at relatively low-prices in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more) and involves purchasing at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. Phase C It is in Phase C that the price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. Phase D If you've plotted the phases correctly, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume , as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. Phase E Price begins to behave bullish as demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. All of the above in mind, I believe we are currently still trading in Phase B of the Wyckoff Method Accumulation phase. This means that we may still test support zone / resistance zone multiple times, until a clear bottom has been established. This would need to be lower than the most recent bottom, and I still think the possibility exists of returning back to $13K levels. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
by CryptoCheck-
31
TSLA Bullish Distribution Pattern Calls are Getting ROASTED! .. PUTS are next..Wall-Street loves to make money! This is just a possible Schematic - our small frame indicators helped to call out distribution and bearishness in TSLA . I believe the Composite Man would make one more liquidity grab before dumping off? .. the markets are ready to bounce before the next big sell-off I would like to see a higher high with bearish divergence on the Daily indicators before stating that this is it for TSLA... to easy... I closed shorts, repurchased my shares sold @$198 & $210 for a discount... I think TSLA may have some juice left in its battery for one more move. I will do more analysis later and keep you posted This are just my ideas - not recommending anything
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Black_Sheep1
📊 Wyckoff SchematicsThe Wyckoff Method involves a five-step approach to stock selection and trade entry, which can be summarized as follows: Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Is the market consolidating or trending? Does your analysis of market structure, supply and demand indicate the direction that is likely in the near future? This assessment should help you decide whether to be in the market at all and, if so, whether to take long or short positions. Use both bar charts and Point and Figure charts of the major market indices for Step 1. Select stocks in harmony with the trend. In an uptrend, select stocks that are stronger than the market. For instance, look for stocks that demonstrate greater percentage increases than the market during rallies and smaller decreases during reactions. In a downtrend, do the reverse – choose stocks that are weaker than the market. If you are not sure about a specific issue, drop it and move on to the next one. Use bar charts of individual stocks to compare with those of the most relevant market index for Step 2. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective. A critical component of Wyckoff's trade selection and management was his unique method of identifying price targets using Point and Figure (P&F) projections for both long and short trades. In Wyckoff's fundamental law of “Cause and Effect,” the horizontal P&F count within a trading range represents the cause, while the subsequent price movement represents the effect. Therefore, if you are planning to take long positions, choose stocks that are under accumulation or re-accumulation and have built a sufficient cause to satisfy your objective. Step 3 relies on the use of Point and Figure charts of individual stocks. Determine the stocks' readiness to move. Apply the nine tests for buying or for selling (described below). For instance, in a trading range after a prolonged rally, does the evidence from the nine selling tests suggest that significant supply is entering the market and that a short position may be warranted? Or in an apparent accumulation trading range, do the nine buying tests indicate that supply has been successfully absorbed, as evidenced further by a low-volume spring and an even lower-volume test of that spring? Use bar charts and Point and Figure charts of individual stocks for Step 4. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index. Three-quarters or more of individual issues move in harmony with the general market, so you improve the odds of a successful trade by having the power of the overall market behind it. Specific Wyckoff principles help you anticipate potential market turns, including a change of character of price action (such as the largest down-bar on the highest volume after a long uptrend), as well as manifestations of Wyckoff's three laws (see below). Put your stop-loss in place and then trail it, as appropriate, until you close out the position. Use bar and Point and Figure charts for Step 5. 🔹PS — preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. 🔹SC — selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. 🔹AR — automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. 🔹ST — secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. 🔹Test — Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume. 🔹SOS — sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. 🔹LPS — last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. 🔹BU — “back-up”. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level. 🔹PSY — preliminary supply , where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. 🔹BC — buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. 🔹AR — automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. 🔹ST — secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. 🔹SOW — sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. 🔹LPSY — last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. 🔹UTAD — upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
3
TSLA Kangaroo Market 3/1VIP Day for TSLA *DUMP & PUMP or PUMP & DUMP... Manipulation is Strong at these levels This Consolidation will end soon leading to continuation break-out or distribution Bullish Target $221.5 + Close above $224 will show Buyer Commitment Bearish Target: Close below $197 *POC My Patterns & Targets are on Chart Detailed Insight from: 2/28 TESLA is currently one of if not the Strongest Stock and is helping to hold up the Markets. I believe that the Rally is close to wrapping up at this stage of the "Mark-UP" *Wyckoff Distribution" I can see "Pump & Dump" -Final UTAD and Possible Continuation through Wednesday with Distribution. ****TSLA is BULLISH - do not mistake my bearish insights as a short confirmation *Daily Chart is very Bullish (The best moves keep going in the same direction) I Technical/Trend/Patterns: 200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets too .. -^Bullish double bottom pattern places TSLA move to $220-$224 area -^Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side BEARISH: -Bearish Rising Wedge on Daily- if pattern completes, measured move will go to fill gap @ $147.61 (MACRO-2-3 weeks) --Bearish Divergences are formed on lower time frames (4hr-1hr) -Daily Bearish Divergences are looking to follow suit if a new High is made (speculation) -OBV & Momentum indicators are diverging to the negative (OBV is High but Momentum is low -contrary) -Price has been moving down but A/D Line continues rising *I analyze this as Higher Distribution _____________________________ -***TIME FRAME: Analyzing consolidation patterns and impulse moves (Mark-UP) - I am seeing Consolidation on average of 25-27 days and Impulse Moves lasting 14 days *Tesla is going to hit 27 days of consolidation on Wednesday I can foresee the Markdown Phase Beginning for 2 weeks and moving into consolidation until before next earnings in April before the Next Mark-UP This aligns up with Seasonal Market Trends ( Bullish in Jan - Decline mid Feb to mid March) - Options Current Options info: *$200 Call Option Wall -Contrarian view is that with High Call Options @ $200 price will close below that by end of week (Market Makers do not want to pay-out) Max-Pain is currently at 197.5 -Bullish view: amount of options could create a "Gamma Squeeze" -Squeezing Tesla to test or surpass Highs in the short-term, ***Short-term pump & Dump Weekly Expected Move: $215 High $197 Low Positives: -Investor Day is Hyping up the bullish trend as everyone is preparing for Elon to showcase "GEN 3" platform -a new commodity vehicle for $25-30k before mark-up. This has retail piling into TSLA stock with an enormous $200 call Option wall again.. -Berlin Higher production levels --QQQ Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side - Help to continue Rally Analysis: Short-Term Neutral/ Bearish (Long-Term Bullish ) My bias is Bearish with a possible pump & dump scenario in play ... $200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets to .. If Tuesday shows strong Commitment and closes at the highs.. We could see Bullish continuation to $234. Tomorrow is VERY CRITICAL - Monthly close above $200 shows strong buyer commitment - if there is a sell-off and we see a close below $197, I feel confident that Tsla will retrace to $145 area to fill gap ( 0.618 retracement ) Tsla Closing strong tomorrow will lead me to believe that consolidation may continue through next week until we get March Payroll Data (this puts my target price to $232-$234 before we see "Mark-Down" *watch how TSLA reacts to Weekly Expected high at $215 area -I am staying away from Options except for "Day-Of" -Day Trading has been exceptional - waiting 15min after market open has proved beneficial
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Black_Sheep1
7
TSLA Revised DistributionRevised Distribution - TSLA is beginning or completing final Phase of distribution, I would like to see one more Liquidity grab (UTAD) to 0.382 Fib from all time Highs ($221) , but $200 call option wall may prevent this. I would think that today would be the day to rally past $214 and drop below $200 in order for Wall-street to make most $ from Options. ... Still we could see this pattern continue into next week before final distribution. *Past $224 with-out strong pullback or rejection will indicate that $214 was Buying Climax- not first UT* and $187.4 was the CHoch This could put UTAD past $240 before distribution - We will see how price reacts with retest of $214 again
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Black_Sheep1
#DENT Wyckoff Based Analysis#Wyckoff Analysis for #DENT #DENTUSDT 3% risk 10-15% account gain Entry 0.001195 SL 0.000999 Target 0.0018-0.002 Perfect Wyckoff Based Chart If we see a SOS back above the range here it should do well. The price needs to get back above the Resistance defined by the "AR" Automatic Rally that followed the SC (Selling Climax), Once price has confirmed back above this area at 0.001235 we are very likely to start the next growth (Phase E) confirmed by another SOS (Sign of Strength) with high buying volume signature. See my related idea for a further understanding of the #Wyckoff method of analysis.
Long
by Worth_The_Ri5k
wyckoff Accumulation 1 can apply on any timeframe PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. Note: Springs or shakeouts usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring. Test—Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume. SOS—sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. LPS—last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU—“back-up”. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level
Education
by BasharatAliMaher
Redistribution schematic 1 PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic
Education
by BasharatAliMaher
Wyckoff Distribution Schematics 2Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and a secondary test (ST) of the BC, often upon diminished volume. However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume; less upward progress is made on each rally before significant supply emerges. In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, Phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, Phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top. Phase B: The function of Phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about Phase B in distribution are similar to those made for Phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside. Phase C: In distribution, Phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and, subsequently, sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move. Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY. Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, Phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR. Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble. Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.
Education
by BasharatAliMaher
Wyckoff Distribution Schematics 1PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.
Education
by BasharatAliMaher
Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics 2Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. The approaching diminution of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC). These events are often very obvious on bar charts, where widening spread and heavy volume depict the transfer of huge numbers of shares from the public to large professional interests. Once these intense selling pressures have been relieved, an automatic rally (AR), consisting of both institutional demand for shares as well as short-covering, typically ensues. A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC. If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation. The lows of the SC and the ST and the high of the AR set the boundaries of the TR. Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above. Sometimes the downtrend may end less dramatically, without climactic price and volume action. In general, however, it is preferable to see the PS, SC, AR and ST, as these provide not only a more distinct charting landscape but a clear indication that large operators have definitively initiated accumulation. In a re-accumulation TR (which occurs during a longer-term uptrend), the points representing PS, SC and ST are not evident in Phase A. Rather, in such cases, Phase A resembles that more typically seen in distribution (see below). Phases B-E generally have a shorter duration and smaller amplitude than, but are ultimately similar to, those in the primary accumulation base. Phase B: In Wyckoffian analysis, Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend (see Wyckoff Law #2 – “Cause and Effect”). In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more) and involves purchasing shares at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. There are usually multiple STs during Phase B, as well as upthrust-type actions at the upper end of the TR. Overall, the large interests are net buyers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of acquiring as much of the remaining floating supply as possible. Institutional buying and selling imparts the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range. Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C. Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. As noted above, a spring is a price move below the support level of the TR (established in Phases A and B) that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears). In Wyckoff's method, a successful test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position. The appearance of a SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. As noted in Accumulation Schematic #2, however, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the TR without a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of Phase C can be challenging. Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions. Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. New, higher-level TRs comprising both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by large operators can occur at any point in Phase E. These TRs are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.
HEducation
by BasharatAliMaher
BBIG Continued break down of this move....Well timed fear news..Remember I said this could be the final push before the pop. Meaning lets say they have 90% of the float absorbed. (If you don't know what I mean by that message me.) The push down would break stop losses and create fomo on the bears side... If you check the volume you will see that the candles without wicks are of equal volume. the Candles with wicks are being soaked up. So very efficient reabsorption of the float. to gain that last percentage they need to carry this. Now we need volume around 10x the normal to get this moving....there are plenty of shares for them to feed to retail as it starts to move. The algo will do all of this on its own. Basically if you take wyckoff theory and add volume cycles and timing cycle to the price action you can get a clear picture of what is the main obj of the algo. When you look at the volume over the last week its nearly been almost non-existent. almost 10x slower than normal. Now take the well timed news that was dropped. Most traders didn't know about this so that isn't the reason it didn't go up. The Algo knows what it needs to do and the news is timed and placed for it to explain why and how.....When the algo isn't able to get the last part of the float because retailers are holding.... they drop the well placed short and sweet fear to explain why the push down all of the sudden. This is just so the algo can break stop losses in the liquidity zone sitting under where price action hasn't touched over x amount of time. Once it gathers up the float it continues on its conquest to higher ground. The push up at open yesterday was the push I was looking for but the fomo was not there and there for the volume was not either... telling the Algo that there isn't enough of the float absorbed to make it move up. Also this sketch might be too quick for all of this to happen as my ghost trail shows it will be more like Tjur Feb 23 and that there will be a dip into liquidity. meaning another push to break stop losses to reacquire the float. Before moving back up. by iCantw84it 02/18/23 *** As always if you find any of this intriguing pls like/follow/ and most of all hit that boost so we can all track this. *** Thank you!
BLong
by iCantw84it
4
intriguing set of coincidences with BBIG Volume-Time I had to make a post to track this. Its one of those things where you see something and the coincidences start to overlap. I follow cycle theory meaning based on retails response to an algos buying and selling at key points in the market....Retail will tend to make the same decision again if the given circumstances still exist. Then their is volume patterns.....taking the amount of volume to complete one move up or down you can expect the opposite move to take the same amount of volume to finish the next move. In the last three moves we have volume being the same across each move up or down to complete and move to the next. We also have a 74 count to complete a move to reaccumulate and a shorter period to take profits and now we are at 73 of another re-accumulation with the volume at 1.99m which is almost exactly where the last two moves swapped. I'm expecting to see a sudden change in character here to the upside. hopefully easily to distinguish on this next candle at 733am Friday morning est time. Each candle after should paint the picture of above to break the last high and sustain above it. Volume should kick in more than it ahs over the last 20 candles. As it came to an sudden halt after an explosion of volume.....this to me is the quiet before the bigger move.... in my eyes the market ramps up then down to almost nothing until its avg is excessively lower than its previous avg at this time over period of days.....when that happens it seesaws back to heavy causing fomo and a rapid amount of growth opportunity. Its all put together by an algo based on the psychology of retail and how to get them chomping at the bit and letting go of their shares when time has exceeded the avg amount of time it takes retail to give up on a move....
BLong
by iCantw84it
1
Accumulation Phase D, right shoulder incomingBitcoin is following a textbook Wyckoff accumulation 3 pattern, which would bring us one more wave down before the start of the next bull market, increasing the mounting evidence we might that the next months will see a decline in price action and opening more opportunities for long-term accumulation. This wave would form the right shoulder in a classic inverse H&S pattern, a pattern that BTC used in the past to reverse long-term market trends. With a timeline set to complete the shoulder at the end of Q1, the path would be open for investors to move in with fresh money at the beginning of Q2 and send the price up. The price target for this idea is 19k.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by chartadamus
2
ETH is in an accumulation zone? ETH has been trading in a quite narrow range of 10% since a month. It seems that ETH is in an accumulation phase following Wyckoff method. This is my hypothesis based of recent movements. One needs to follow closely the next moves to be sure. But in my opinion, it is a good time to accumulate ETH. For a bullish scenario, ETH would go to 2400 in next few months. What do you think about ETH and this analysis? Don't hesitate to drop your comment. Thanks!
Long
by evasivesteering