Get started

Wyckoffredistribution

Wyckoff Accumulation & DistributionThe Wyckoff Method, pioneered by Richard Wyckoff, a prominent figure in the early 1900s stock market, remains a powerful technical analysis-based trading approach. This article delves into the intricacies of the Wyckoff Accumulation and Distribution phases, fundamental to this method. Who was Richard Wyckoff? Richard Wyckoff, a highly successful American stock market investor of his time, stands as a pioneer in technical analysis. He transitioned from accumulating personal wealth to addressing what he perceived as market injustices, devising the Wyckoff Method to empower traders against market manipulation. Through various platforms like his own Magazine of Wall Street and Stock Market Technique, Wyckoff disseminated his insights. The Wyckoff Method: Wyckoff proposed that markets undergo distinct phases: Accumulation and Distribution. These phases guide traders on when to accumulate or distribute their positions, forming the core of the method. The Wyckoff Accumulation Phase: This phase materializes as a sideways, range-bound period subsequent to a prolonged downtrend. During this stage, significant players seek to establish positions without causing dramatic price drops. The accumulation phase comprises six integral components, each serving a vital role: Preliminary Support (PS): As signs of the downtrend ending emerge, high volume and wider spreads surface. Buyers initiate interest, suggesting the end of selling dominance. Selling Climax (SC): Characterized by intense selling pressure and panic selling, this phase represents a sharp price decline. Often, price closes well above the lowest point. Automatic Rally (AR): Late sellers experience a reversal, driven by short sellers covering positions. This phase sets the upper range limit for subsequent consolidation. Secondary Test (ST): Controlled retesting of lows with minimal volume increase indicates potential reversal. Spring: A deceptive move resembling a downtrend resumption, designed to deceive and shakeout participants. Last Point of Support, Back Up, and Sign of Strength (LPS, BU, SOS): Clear shifts in price action mark the transition into the range's start. A rapid, one-sided move signifies buyer control, often following the spring. Wyckoff Distribution Cycle: Following Accumulation, the Wyckoff Distribution phase unfolds. This cycle consists of five phases: Preliminary Supply (PSY): Dominant traders initiate selling after a notable price rise, leading to increased trading volume. Buying Climax (BC): Retail traders enter positions, driving further price increase. Dominant traders capitalize on premium prices to sell. Automatic Reaction (AR): The end of the BC phase brings a price drop due to decreased buying. High supply causes a decline to the AR level. Secondary Test (ST): Price retests the BC range, assessing supply and demand balance. Sign of Weakness, Last Point of Supply, Upthrust After Distribution (SOW, LPSY, UTAD): SOW signals price weakness, LPSY tests support, and UTAD might occur near cycle's end, pushing the upper boundary. Wyckoff Reaccumulation and Redistribution Cycles: Reaccumulation occurs during uptrends, as dominant traders accumulate shares during price pauses. Redistribution, during downtrends, begins with sharp price rallies as short sellers capitalize. Dominant traders strategically enter positions during these rallies. Wyckoff's Foundational Concepts: Law of Supply and Demand: Prices rise when demand is high and supply is low. Prices fall when supply is high and demand is low. Balanced supply and demand lead to stable prices. Law of Cause and Effect: Price changes are driven by specific underlying factors. Price rises result from accumulation phases, while drops arise from distribution phases. Law of Effort vs. Result: Trading volume should match price movement. Deviations signal potential shifts in market sentiment or upcoming opportunities. The Wyckoff Method is relevant to all markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, where supply and demand play a crucial role in influencing price movements.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by Vestinda
1
Bitcoin Bearish Structure Intact Breakdown to $14,600 LikelySometimes it seems one week in the world of crypto moves at the speed of three months in the traditional markets. If you recall, last week Cameron Winkelvoss called out Barry Silbert of Digital Currency Group (DCG) for potential solvency issues and potential co-mingling of assets between Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). It would appear things are escalating quite rapidly on that front. It would appear Digital currency Group is currently being investigated by the US SEC and the US DOJ over suspicious funds transfers according to Yahoo Finance Digital Currency Group in Spotlight Over Suspicious Fund Transfers “Crypto-focused conglomerate Digital Currency Group (DCG) is under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over questionable transfers between DCG and a subsidiary, according to a Bloomberg report that cited unnamed sources.” Additionally, Bloomberg is reporting Dutch Crypto Exchange Bitvato rejected an offer by Digital Currency Group (DCG) to pay 70 percent of its outstanding debt to Bitvato. Dutch Crypto Exchange Says Digital Currency Group in Talks With Creditors …and of course this led to a call for removal of Barry Silbert from Digital Currency Group (DCG) by Cameron Winkelvoss (Yahoo Finance analysis link below). DCG, Gemini Tensions Escalate as Winklevoss Calls for Removal of Barry Silbert The ramifications of a potential Digital Currency Group insolvency – and by extension a potential insolvency of Greyscale Bitcoin Trust – would have a material impact on the entire crypto ecosystem. It would appear that the Cryptocurrency Ecosystem may need to brace for a hard landing. With that, Let’s get to the TA. (My methodology is Point & Figure/Wyckoff.) Looking at the 1D chart ($200 USD box size with a 3-box reversal), the bearish structure of the formation has remained intact, with a series of Upward Thrust (UT) shakeouts honoring the broken trendline of support throughout Phase C of this Wyckoff Redistribution. Upward Thrusts (UT) and Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) are quite common in Phase C of Wyckoff Redistributions to trap, shakeout, and chop up traders. “A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and, subsequently, sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move. Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY.” - The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial The recent PA move took Bitcoin to a confluence of resistance at $17,400 USD where the broken support trendline (started from the Secondary Test at $15,600 USD) and the resistance trendline (started from the UTAD local top at $18,200) meet. The PA should experience rejection here, with price falling into the $15,800 USD region on a Sign of Weakness (SOW) as the formation moves into Phase D of the Redistribution. The projected price for this Wyckoff Redistribution phase would be ((9 columns x 200 box size x 3 box reversal) * 2/3) - $18,200 = $14,600 region based upon the existing cause in the formation. A breakout above $17,800.00 would invalidate this bearish scenario. Something worth reminding about: One thing to be acutely aware of in a Wyckoff Redistribution cycle is these cycles generally have three waves – each with diminished intensity as a rule of thumb. It is entirely possible after BTC settles into a new Trade Range in the $14,600 region, the formation will move through a normal Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation right before experiencing a Change of Character and transforming into a third Wyckoff Redistribution only to take the PA to a lower Trade Range. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
3
Bitcoin Eyes Potential Breakdown to $14,600 on a Wyckoff RedistI have always marveled about how projected price movements from TA oftentimes capture some unspoken truth not widely shared in the market – both good and bad news. In that vein, if you have not had a chance to read about everything happening between Tyler & Cameron Winklevoss the Gemini cofounders and Barry Silbert the CEO of the Digital Currency Group (and by extension Greyscale Bitcoin Trust), you really need to take the time to read through this and understand the ramifications of a potential Digital Currency Group insolvency – and by extension a potential insolvency of Greyscale Bitcoin Trust – would have on the entire crypto ecosystem en.cryptonomist.ch With that, Let’s get to the TA. (My methodology is Point & Figure/Wyckoff). Looking at the 1D chart ($200 box size with a 3-box reversal), the formation moved into a normal Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation pattern after breaking a major line of support at the $17,600 price point. As the formation moved from Phase A into Phase B, the PA of the formation experienced a Change of Character (transforming midway in Phase B from a typical Wyckoff Accumulation pattern into a Wyckoff Distribution pattern). It formed a Last Point of Supply (an exit rally) which took the PA to the $18,200 region and subsequently printed a Sign of Weakness as the PA moved into a Wyckoff Redistribution pattern. If we look at the projected target price of this Wyckoff Redistribution using the horizontal method, the projected price for this Wyckoff Redistribution phase would be ((9 columns x 200 box size x 3 box reversal) * 2/3) - $17,000 = $14,600 region based upon the existing cause in the formation. One thing to be acutely aware of in a Wyckoff Redistribution cycle is these cycles generally have three waves – each with diminished intensity as a rule of thumb. It is entirely possible after BTC settles into a new Trade Range in the $14,600 region, the formation will move through a normal Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation right before experiencing a Change of Character and transforming into a third Wyckoff Redistribution only to take the PA to a lower Trade Range. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Litecoin in Redistribution?As this is something we've discussed live extensively during streams, I wanted to take a moment to outline a "live" setup for Wyckoff Redistribution. In this instance, the target is Litecoin ($LTC). First let's discuss what Wyckoff Redistribution actually is, starting with a link to the pattern itself . Wyckoff Redistribution is a way to truly make sense of what's happening with particular assets. As many already know, trading is hard! What makes it especially hard is the trickiness that happens so tricky. Many times our emotions will tell us to "buy" or that things "FEEL bullish" right before a big selloff. Viewing things in the context of Wyckoff helps us strip away the constant smoke & mirrors & determine what's truly going on. Here are the key steps & triggers as I see them (Note: ORDER MATTERS): 1) Identify a sustained downtrend (usually -30% or greater) 2) Identify a period of time where price appears to go sideways on the macro time frame (daily candles, with downtrend and sideways each lasting months) 3) Identify the formation of key horizontal(s) where price keeps selling off consistently (short stops & long triggers are being built here). * This is often the trade range highs. 4) Identify a LACK of lows being run. * Running the lows is a BULLISH indicator, whereas NOT running lows is BEARISH. Redistribution is BEARISH. 5) After sustained consolidation, watch for the before mentioned horizontals to be BROKEN. * This is what gets shorts to close and longs to pile on, as a trick. 6) After the breakout, watch for price to close BACK under the key horizontal identified previously. * Breaking back into the range, rather than consolidating at the highs, is a key difference between the UTAD of Wyckoff Redistribution & the "SOS" consolidation of Wyckoff Acummulation. 7) At this point, your sell/short entries trigger & the anticipated price drop is from the failed breakout horizontal down to the range lows. * The stops here would be back above the range highs 8) After this move, the market often rallies off the lows in some bearish form (dead cat, Rising Wedge, H&S, etc) where it then falls below the range lows as it heads downward toward its next target. This concludes the lesson on trading Wyckoff Redistribution. If you have any questions or suggestions, feel free to reach out to me via socials. GL
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by Crypt0Jack
4
Wyckoff Redistribution - 22.8k to 18.3kWyckoff Redistribution to 22.8k First, the fundamentals: Bitcoin is currently in a clear distribution phase, as supported by volume and the fact that big players are selling and small players are buying (seen by the amount of BTC wallets holding BTC increasing, with those wallets having smaller number of BTC in them). Next: A shark pattern has emerged on the 4 hour chart, and BTC has bounced around the 1-0.886 retracement area. Usually in a circumstance like this, Take Profit would be around 50% of BC, which in this case is around the same area of 22.8k. The bounce point from C-D leg would complete the bullish harmonic pattern and can potentially signal the continuation of the downtrend. If we measure the 1.618 of OX we get 18,250. If we measure the 2.236 of a potential CD at 22.8k we get the exact same point - 18,250. Now this is more than just coincidental given the PSY level on the Redistribution schematic. Next, the 2.236 level in harmonics are usually seen in patterns like the Crab, Gartley, Shark or Partizan. This bearish leg can bounce at 1.618 (19.5k) and continue to fall straight down to 2.236 (18,250) which is likely. This is where we close our SHORT and flip LONG. Wyckoff Law mentions how we can have an extreme impulse towards BC (Buying Climax) to test the previous Preliminary Supply. Now there is a reason we are not choosing 23.5k for this (as you can see in the pattern on the right hand side, the point next to the letters "Phase A" is likely to be 23.5k. An automatic rally (AR) can occur when selling volume has diminished. There are likely going to be buyers buying at the 0.5 or 0.618 retracement of CD before last chance SHORT retesting UT/ST around 22.7k. Finally, stocks look like they are about to crash and should drag Bitcoin down with it. DXY is also rallying and showing no signs of slowing down mid term. Also, the 200MA weekly is not that important here but a good resistance level in case we somehow break 22.8k. I think not likely though.
Short
by reiiss7
4
btc - redistribution once againelliott wave analysis of bitcon on daily timeframe looking at the chart there could be a possible zigzag formation (5-3-5 structure), labeled with red ABC on the chart currently, in lower degree abc correction is in play and wave B on higher timeframe. depending on abc formation, here is what to be expected - if abc is forming zigzag formation then we may expect some more bullish price action before any probable reversal - on the other hand, abc could form an expanded flat with a complex b wave and the formation will perfectly fit to wyckoff redistribution sychmatic. in this case we may experience a bearish price action - probably below the local bottom - folowed with a bullish price around the half of wave A in higher degree which will complete abc formation on lower degree. please check details presented on the chart abc completion also means end of wave B in higher degree. based on zigzag rules wave C implies a bearish impulsive (5 waves) price action please note that : - these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action - trade setups must be confirmed in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis - and please remeber that this analysis is not a financial advice and presented for educational purpose only Peace at Home, Peace in the World
by dgtrd
53
CADCHF push to the supply and SELLLast week's price has been steadily rising up, showing some signs of Wyckoff's redistribution. We're patiently waiting for the price to reach the 0.756 area, and if/ when that happens we'll be looking for SELL opportunities (expecting the price to reach 0.747 area). But we'll have to see a clear Break of Structure to the downside first (possibly on the lower time frames). However, if the 0.757 zone is breached, we'll look for the structure formed and decide on the later moves. Happy trading.
Short
by GibsonTrades
Learning Wyckoff Distribution as RedistributionThe purpose of this idea is to give beginner analysists a introduction to some key principles and methodology used in understanding the movement of price within markets. One of those key principles is Market Phases, and we also use the Wyckoff Method to help us understand these Market Phases further. ------------------------------------------------------------------ What is Wyckoff Method & Intro to Distribution ------------------------------------------------------------------ "One objective of the Wyckoff method is to improve market timing when establishing a position in anticipation of a coming move where a favorable reward/risk ratio exists. In accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold while, in distribution, the opposite is true. The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR ." Wyckoff Theory & Schematics give us clues to which probable direction the price may head out of the horizontal moving price structure. Reaccumulation is the continuation of Accumulation whilst Redistribution is the continuation of Distribution. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Distribution ------------------------------------------------------------------ I have attached a cutout from "Stocks & Commodities V.32:8 (14-18): The Composite Man's Bull Market Campaign by Pruden, Fraser, Bogomazov for educational purposes. In this picture, described is the characteristics of Wyckoff Distribution In a Distribution Trading Range two of the key characteristics are the UTAD (Upwards Thrust & Distribution) above the Trading Range, and the SoW's Signs Of Weakness's with strong volume at the bottom end of the range, trapped buyers above the trading range. Distribution is one of the 4 Market Phases which we will learn about at the end of the the writeup. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Redistribution ------------------------------------------------------------------ After Distribution, Comes Redistribution. Where after a extended down move, a repeated sideways movement occurs which leads to another downwards thrust. By using the characteristics and schematics to identify Distribution we can also identify Redistribution using the same methodology. This also works with Accumulation & Reaccumulation, by looking for the characteristics of Accumulation inside Reaccumulation. (Read further to understand this concept) So as you can see on the CELR Chart the characteristics almost match the picture Distribution identically, we can see at the Upper Range every time a breakout occurs it is quickly shut down by sellers indicating a strong presence of Supply. Eventually the UTAD occurs where buyers are trapped which is then followed by the price cascading down. The only difference is that this is a potential Redistribution instead of Distribution. Redistribution is something many analysts struggle with and can be difficult to identify. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Using Market Phases to gain further understanding of the Market Direction: ------------------------------------------------------------------ The four Market Phases are. Accumulation Reaccumulation Distribution Redistrubution Market Phases explained further: (Dont Miss This Idea If You Are A Beginner!) (Additonal Infographic) ibb.co Now looking at the LONG TERM chart for CELR, we can see the current trading range of the Above idea (Marked in orange on the current chart below) is potentially Redistribution. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Further Reading & Similar Ideas ------------------------------------------------------------------ Learning Wyckoff Redistribution: Learning Distribution: For more information check out Stockcharts.com, Wyckoff Introduction & Tutorial for beginners. school.stockcharts.com Distribution Schematic: school.stockcharts.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ Final Thoughts ------------------------------------------------------------------ By using the Wyckoff Methodology to look deeper into our Trading Ranges we can potentially have more clues in successfully identifying the 4 Market Phases described above. So far our clues are showing us this current trading range on CELR may be showing weakness and probability of lower prices. Unless CELR manages to get back above the 0.075c area with strong Buying volume lower prices are probable here. If found the idea insightful you can show your appreciation by sharing it or giving it a like, feel free to leave your thoughts and criticisms in the comments and thank you for reading!
Short
by Worth_The_Ri5k
1
BTCUSD Symmetric TriangleLooks to me like BTCUSD is in a symmetric triangle pattern, which tends to follow the current trend (which has been down) before continuing onward. There is a possibility of reversal, but symmetric triangles typically continue the current trend. If this were an ascending right triangle, I'd see it as more bullish. If it were a descending right triangle, more bearish. I'm going to wait and see if it can hold above the triangle for a couple days, and then maybe open some positions on it, or wait for it to reject the trend and fib resistance points and continue down. My opinion is that it is likely to continue downward, and this is a Wyckoff redistribution phase. There's a chance it is a consolidation for an upcoming reversal, but I'm personally bearish.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by brettfb
Bearish on BTC with a potential Last Point of Supply in ProcessAt the moment, I'm calling for a fall on BTC to a new support level at potentially $40,000. The current range has formed a descending triangle in what I am seeing as a re-distribution trading range. Noted a few things observed on my chart *The volume spikes during the development of the TR. Both exhibited bullish behavior that eventually fizzled out into the resistance levels. No commitment above. Transfer of stock to weak hands? *Currently at the support level and showing near no demand agressivness like what has seen before off this level A thing to keep in mind: if we break this level, a quick fall is likely which could be our true spring and thus change the outcome of this TR. If demand cannot come in though we will be in real trouble. There are many things that exist outside of the chart on a macro level that I find hard to ignore in terms of a possible bear market. Omicron, Evergrande, Gov Debt, Huge Asset Bubbles; these are all risks to stability in the markets and can quickly generate fear and in turn, people will leave risky assets or assets that appear to be drastically over valued.
Short
by DecpBTC
BTC going down to 41.9kBINANCE:BTCUSDT Wyckoff PnF (Point and Figure) chart calculation (1 box reversal, $400/box) for the previous Distribution that completed on Dec 3rd, provides drop target of -12000. This is almost EXACTLY how low the price dropped out of that Distribution. I'd say that pretty much exhausts the Cause built up in the previous Distribution, so I am assuming that the drop is complete now. The big question now is whether the TR we are seeing is Re-Distribution, or Accumulation? To me, it's currently looking more like a Re-Distribution. Here's why: 1) Volume at Support is actually expanding as the TR matures 2) Upthrusts are happening on increasing volume, suggesting that the prices are rising into a lot of Supply. 3) Price spread on the upthrusts is getting more compressed the closer we get to the top of the rally, suggesting that the C.O. is dumping a lot of Supply into the uptrend, selling at the highest price they can. 4) Price spread and volume both increase on the declines, so we have very quick, aggressive drops as C.O is offloading. 5) The price action at Support suggests that we are not looking at absorption of Supply. If it was, we'd see very low volume rallies, which is what happens when more and more Supply gets absorbed. This is not the case here - the rallies are clearly requiring quite a bit of "sponsorship" based on the huge volume spikes. Assuming we are looking at Re-Distribution, the current PnF target suggests that we have enough Cause already built up to drop by -7500, which takes us to 41.9k. Does this make sense to all of you Wyckoffians out there?
Short
by vace117
4
BTCUSDT Descending Tringle - Wyckoff RedistrubtionBtc creating classical Descending Tringle Pattern with potential of fake breakout on Top and its look like Wyckoff Redistrubtion Schematic Descending Top - Decreasing Volume - Uptrust and Sign of Weakness - Pattern will be Confirmed if Fake breakout happen on top and price break bottom line on rejection and Pattern is fail if price close candle above UT Target Point 1 Short Term : 37500 Target Point 2 Mid Term : 35000 Target Point 3 Long Term : 33500 Ali Dastafkan.
Short
by Psychosocial
2
$BTC 4hr - Re-distribution possible$BTC Following on from an earlier post, here is a closer up of the possible case for re-distribution. We can see from this that if this is correct then we are most likely right in the middle of the downside and are almost definitely going to see more downside. This is obviously also possible given the amount of financial unrest we are seeing in other markets primarily because of the China situation. If this is to be true, then the chances that we will adhere to Plan B's theory that we would be at $43500 at the end of September are slim in comparison to the possibilities of re-accumulation that we have suggested in our posts that explore this. Strangely, the previous candles do appear to correspond to both the re-distribution and the re-accumulation theories so time will tell and probably pretty rapidly as this is playing out through the 4hr timeframe as opposed to the Wyckoff distribution phase that first took place that was staged through the longer daily timeframe. Trade safely guys and make sure to stay aware of these two distinct possibilities! PumpeyeTheTraderMan & Crypto Society
by BiloCrypto
1
$BTC Wyckoff re-distribution possible*The Pumpeye Perspective* **$BTC** If this Wyckoff re-distribution theory is correct then and we are now on our way down then the low will happen around the 3rd October and the spring around the 15th October. Today appears to be very similar to the 12th May drop and could be the start of further downwards movement if the Wyckoff pattern is true to the current Bitcoin movements. PLEASE NOTE This chart and theory is not scare mongering or FUD, all TA is just probabilities and this COULD not play out, we are merely exploring possibilities. PLEASE Take precautions to protect yourselves and use appropriate risk management if you are trading this market! Trade safely guys and please do contact the team if you wish to discuss things or the current market conditions are affecting you and you need someone to talk to. Pumpeye ❤️
Short
by BiloCrypto