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EURUSD Accumulation According to Wyckoff Theory - In Phase CI've been studying Wyckoff's Smart Money Theory for a while. And after staring at the EURUSD chart it almost looks picture perfect to a Wyckoff accumulation chart. If there are any other Wyckoff students out there, please let me know what you think. I just made a play on the operator candle (The long play box is in the chart) )as this should go long right now according to his theory and just now having the second "Spring" on the chart. Would like to see if anyone else has a Wyckoff chart draw up for EURUSD? We've hit the Buyers climax, had the Automatic Reaction, the Up Thrust, two tests on the support line. Then the Up Thrust After Distribution (That's the signal that you're in phase C), then the Springs. Now we just need the jump across the creek. What does anyone else thinl? Thanks
Long
by BodiesXWix
Wyvkoff - Basic Scheme of AccumulationNearly 100 years ago, Richard D Wyckoff born in the 19th century was a famous stock trader and investor. Wyckoff developed and carved out a revolutionary and ground breaking methodology which interlinked the institutional activities and large organisations to price movement within the chart. Wyckoff’s method and edge is based on logical reading of price action and volume. The Wyckoff method provides traders and investors with the tools, knowledge and ability to exploit markets movements consistently, whilst minimising risk exposure and aiding capital preservation, across multi-asset classes. The Wyckoff methodology provides the opportunity to select high probability trading opportunities with a solid reward/risk The detailed image / graphic is a typical 'basic scheme of accumulation focusing on the Phases and different key metrics / elements that make up all of the moving parts. PS = Preliminary Supply SC - Sellers Climax AR =Automatic Reaction ST = Secondary Test UA = Upthrust Action ST as SOW = Secondary Test as Sign Of Weakness / Sample of Weakness in test function SP = Spring Test = Test Spring LPS = Last point of Support BU = Back Up BUEC = Back up to the Edge of the Creek SOS = Sign of Strength Best Regards Phantom
Education
by Phantom_Trading
Ethereum Forms Upward Thrust to $235.50 in Phase BHappy Saturday. The scope of the TA will be limited to the 15M Intraday Chart and the 1D Chart. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation has completed Phase A of a Wyckoff Accumulation range, establishing the Intraday trade range between $234.25 and $230.00. The formation has moved into Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation, has completed the Upward Thrust (UT) to the $234.50 price handle, followed by a second Upward Thrust (UT) on a Sign of Strength (SOS) to the $235.50 price handle. The formation is currently forming a creek before moving into Phase C. The formation has printed a second Upward Thrust (UT) on a Sign of Strength (SOS) and the PA appears to have formed a classic Back-Up/Last Point of Supply (BU/LPS) at the $234.25 price handle suggesting imminent breakout. At first glance, it appears the formation is about to have a strong move higher, but it smells more of a bull trap for a couple of reasons: The PA remains confined below trend line resistance, suggesting the chart be viewed with a bearish bias. The formation is currently in Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation, and an Upward Thrust (UT) of this type is typical PA before forming a Creek to move into Phase C. A breakout during this phase is atypical. The key item to watch for is PA retuning into the trade range (failure and supply). The Volume profile is materially weak given the strong move higher on a Sign of Strength (SOS) and the Volume Oscillator is printing a sharp decline on the move, indicating the trend is weakening and on the verge of change. Everything here is mirrored almost exactly on the 4H Intraday Chart as well. On 1D chart, the formation signaled a move into Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution and is currently printing the first Last Point of Supply (LPSY) on a macro level. Two key items of note: (i) the upper line of support rests at the $229.50 price handle and the lower line of support rests at the $225.25 price handle, and (ii) the $229.50 price handle is a critical point across all three Charts (1D, 4H & 15M). Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point with the current PA. A breach below this price handle will signal a significant breakdown of support on the Intraday time frames and signal a sell on the higher time frame (1D). A price of $230.00 would form a double bottom on the 1D Chart and touch lower support on both Intraday Charts (4H and 15M). A price of $229.75 would signal a sell from the double bottom on the higher time frame (1D) and breach the lower support line on the Intraday charts (4H & 15M). A price of $229.50 would confirm the double bottom sell and touch the upper line of support on the 1D Chart. Summary/My Trade Plan While the bias across the board remains bearish, a slight lean towards short position entry at points above $233.75 seems to make sense from a risk/reward scenario. Given both, (i) the premature Selling Climax (SC) Ethereum had as a reaction to Bitcoin breaking lower support at $9,120.00 and (ii) Bitcoin just completed a Return to ICE (RTICE) completing Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution pattern, the natural move from a Creek to Spring in a Phase C Wyckoff Accumulation makes logical sense as a potential inflection point into a Selling Climax (SC) should Bitcoin move into Phase E Distribution in the near future. Should the formation bounce on a typical Jump Across the Creek, the position can still be closed in minor profit. However, should the inflection point not hold, the ensuing Selling Climax (SC) provides an excellent opportunity for more material profit as support across multiple time frames should potentially fail in rapid succession. The $229.50 price handle is a critical point across all three Charts (1D, 4H & 15M). Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point with the current PA. A breach below this price handle will a signal significant breakdown of support on the Intraday time frames and signal a sell on the higher time frame (1D). Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by FOFAgent1
Wyckoff Says USDJPY will DropThe Wyckoff Smart Money Schamtic has played out on the 4 hour time frame throughout last week. And in the C stage of the Schematic, it is once again playing out in the 1 hour time from. The Upthrust after distribution has now turned into the new Buyers Climax. And you now have more new tests of lows and highs within a range with a new Upthrust on the 1 hour time frame. Looks like we need a Show of Weakness and then a test on the UTAD, 1 test away from wicking a sponsor candle for a 200 pip loss. Give it a few hours and that bullish sponsor will show it's face. Enter on the entry of that candle for a sell and Watch it ride. Any Smart Money traders have any input as to what else I should be looking at in this schematic? Any input from a Smart Money trader would be greatly appreciated.
Short
by BodiesXWix
The Wyckoff Distribution Method Study on BitcoinEvening Traders, In Today’s Analysis I am going to focus on the Wyckoff Distribution theory on Bitcoin's current Price Action, the similarities are striking and I do believe we are in Phase D, approaching Phase E. Firstly I’ll list the acronyms for your reference: - PSY (Preliminary Supply) – First bull impulses in the range - BC (Buying Climax) – Volume Climax - AR (Automatic Reaction) – Strong buy pressure - ST (Secondary Test) – Bearish Retest of Structure - SOW (Show of Weakness) – Bearish Price Action - LPSY (Last Point of Supply) – Consecutive lower highs - UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) – Usually a Bull Trap/ Liquidity Grab There are 3 LAW's to adhere to in Wyckoff’s Theory; 1. The law of Supply and Demand 2. The law of Cause and Affect 3. The law of Effort The Law of Supply and Demand; - When Demand is greater than Supply, price increases, this is evident in Phase A of Bitcoin's Price Action. - When Supply is greater than Demand, price falls, Phase D reflects this in Bitcoin’s current Market Structure. The Law of Cause and Affect; - Creates clear price boundaries that set objectives, these are essentially the Support and Resistance levels of the Trading Range. Evident in Bitcoin, (Blue Support and Resistance lines), price bounces between these pivots as distribution occurs. The Law of Effort - Used to indicate momentum shifts,( institutions offloading their holdings), price tends to be weak with consecutive lower highs as supply takes over, (Phase D and E). - Divergences between Volume and Price coincide with the market direction as a whole, evident in Bitcoin as volume continues to decline in Phase D. Moving on to the technical aspect keeping these laws in mind will better help understand the chart. Phase A: - PSY (Preliminary Supply) – First bull impulses in the range expand on Bitcoin and Price Action widens, this is an early indication of momentum shifting from the Parabola. - BC (Buying Climax) – Essentially a volume climax in Phase A that marks the temporary top of the uptrend. - SC (Secondary Test) – Bearish Retest of the structure, Bitcoin makes an attempt to take out recent highs but fails and rolls over into the next Phase. Phase B: - UT (Up-Thrust) – A swing high failure, the price of Bitcoin fails to establish a high and does not close above resistance. - SOW (Show of weakness) – Bearish Price Action, Bitcoin’s price essentially starts to show weakness as the law of cause and affect takes over. Sign that Supply is starting to take over the market. Phase C: - UTAD (Uptrend after Distribution) – Essentially a liquidity grab/ bull trap which takes place at a key level in phase C. Bitcoin establishes this by failing to close above $10,428, trapping long buyers before an impulse down. Phase D: - LPSY (Last Points of Supply) – Consecutive lower highs is the characteristics in this Phase. Bitcoin’s Price Action fails to rally as Supply starts to overweight Demand. Buyer Exhaustion is evident here as price starts to roll over into Phase E. Phase E: - Price is in control by Supply and continues with consecutive lower highs. Show of weakness is great in this phase; taking out the lower boundary of distribution usually proceeds with a significant bear rally. If Bitcoin holds current projection (lower highs), a test of the lower boundary will be the pivot point – Completion of the Wyckoff study. This theory helps understand the distribution and accumulation process of the market as whole, certain objectives have to be met in order to validate the study. Bitcoins market structure has been in synch with the theory thus far, if weakness continues to show in phase D and E, the probability of taking out the lower boundary will increase. An important takeaway from this theory is to understand the relationship between Demand and Supply. The dynamics between Demand and Supply is what moves the overall market, usually in accordance to the objectives of larger institutions (Smart Money). The Wyckoff’s theory helps largely in identifying these shifts in momentum where retail investors can position themselves in accordance to smart money. Hope you learnt something new in this analysis! Thank you for following my work And remember, “The Tape Reader’s profits should develop naturally. He should buy or sell because it is the thing to do – not because he wants to make a profit or fears to make a loss” ― Richard D. Wyckoff
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by AzizKhanZamani
56
Bitcoin: Bearish Distribution Wyckoffian Analysis 1H (May 16)X Force Global Analysis: In this analysis, we explore Bitcoin's bearish scenario based on the Wyckoffian logic. Analysis - On the right hand side, we have a simple diagram of the market phases developed by Wyckoff. - It's important to remember Wyckoff's emphasis on supply and demand, cause and effect, and effort. - In the accumulation phase, there is a high supply with low demand. - The effect of high supply and low demand is rock bottom prices - The Mark Up phase occurs when the supply of an asset has been diminished - The demand then picks up when retail investors start taking notice of the upside of the underlying asset. - In the Distribution phase, demand stays the same, while supply increases - During the Mark Down phase, supply is at an all time high - Basd on the wyckoffian logic, we are currently at a distribution phase, looking for a Mark Down. - It's also important to note that we have been rejected constantly by the mid resistance of the bollinger band Market Sentiment: Long short ratios are at 73 to 27, with exceptional amounts of long and dominant bullish sentiment in the market. What We Believe As mentioned previously, a break and close above 10K was imperative for a bullish rally. However, it seems as though Bitcoin is having a hard time with rejection around 9.5k levels too. Interpreting this as a distribution phase, while a test of the 10K levels could definitely be possible, the bearish probabilities are still high, and the corrective scenario remains valid. Trade Safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
12