Wyckoff Accumulation in XPEVPreliminary Support (PS)
The first significant rally that occurs after a prolonged decline that indicates budding demand showing up. It is usually associated with a minor panic preceding that rally.
Selling Climax (SC)
A major panic that occurs at the end of a steep decline in prices. In its classical form it is typified by large range reversal in prices accompanied by large volume.
Automatic Rally (AR)
The rally that occurs after a Selling Climax. It occurs without previous preparation, hence the word “automatic.” The top of an AR usually marks the beginning of the coming creek.
Secondary Test (ST)
A name given by Wyckoff to the reaction following Automatic Rally, (or rally following the Automatic reaction.) If that test is associated with small range and light volume—it increases the likelihood that the previous trend is over.
Spring
A form of a test of a trading range. Characterized by pushing prices below support by the CM in order to check the status of supply. The market’s response to the spring indicates the nature of supply and demand forces for the near future.
Wyckofftrading
Stepping-Stone Re-Distribution Continues for BitcoinSince Oct 21, 2021, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a stepping-stone pattern of re-distribution. I have clearly documented these events in a series of publications as the price action unfolded. In this stepping-stone pattern, the price trades within a well-defined trading range for a time until the price commits below the lower boundary of the trading range in a shakeout (SO) and/or sign of weakness (SOW) event. Next, demand comes in to stop the downward price action then the price trades within a new trading range with well-defined boundaries. In stepping-stone re-distribution, it’s almost as if the trading ranges are kind of stacked upon one another.
With the recent FTX/Alameda black swan event, we have observed a SO/SOW event. In the SO/SOW, the BTC price dropped by greater than 26%. Demand clearly stepped in to stop the price from decreasing further. Most likely we have entered a new trading range although we need to wait for confirmation. In addition, we don’t know at the moment if this new trading range is accumulation or distribution.
Note: The orange circles highlight climatic level volume.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UDAT), preliminary supply (PS), failed upthrust (FUT), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), upthrust (UT), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
Is the distribution pattern on JBH now complete? (JBH:ASX)* Initial peak at the end of 2021
* Sharp retrace (automatic reaction) followed by quick rally into the secondary test
* Sharp fall again on most bearish volume in that period
* Long phase B of about 12 months
* Down moves so much quicker than the up moves
* Distribution occurring through this period
* Ultimate high in April 2022 forming an upthrust after distribution
* Very weak retest to complete Phase C
* Rapid decline in price from $57 to $37 approx in Phase D sell off
* One last rally to $47 approx
* Back up to the creek and upthrust to complete Phase D
* We should now start the Phase E mark down.
* P&F target is $10, conservative target $21
* This is my analysis of the stock. DYOR before making trades.
Wyckoff accumulation 2070 Daily ChannelThis my main long term perspective on gold's loooong descending channel since 2070.
In my view, this is just an over-extended bearsqueeze due to the strengthening Dollar Index which would ultimately reach 120 soon, and ultimately peak.
Market Makers are bullish overall and choosing to extend price action for as long as it needs to, and exhausting off as many sellers from the market as possible in the process to secure a decisive break out to the upside.
ALGO completing Wyckoff accumulation phaseAfter a multi-month period of mark-down ALGO is exhibiting the final stages of Wyckoff's accumulation model:
1. Preliminary Support (PS) established
2. Selling Climax (SC) achieved
3. Automatic Rally (AR) occurred
4. Secondary Tests (ST) occurred
5. Price broke key resistance level (Sign Of Strength / "crossed the creek"
6. Price Backed Up ("walk back to creek")
The next phase is the mark-up phase.
This could correspond well with a mid-term rally off SPY support level.
Wyckoff's Spring Accumulation for Bitcoin ??!The most of the signs and the psychology of the people in the Market, are pointing for lower macro lows $10k-13k.
What if a "Spring" (fake out) according to Wyckoff's Accumulation phase plays out ?
Fake us all out, drag us into shorts, and then start reversing ?!
Long BTC to $25,600Cognitive flexibility, required to shift one’s bias from bullish to bearish, long to short, and vice versa, based on market conditions, is extremely valuable as a trader. In previous publications, I mentioned that since the BTC price has been in a down trending environment for nearly 9 months we should assume that the current trading range (31 days and counting) is re-distribution unless the market conditions tell us otherwise. The BTC price is up 22% since the secondary test (ST) on July 13. Thus, the current market conditions tell us that we should consider whether the current trading range is re-accumulation instead of re-distribution.
If the current trading range is re-accumulation, then the secondary test (ST) on July 13 had a spring-like effect and the subsequent rally, which broke above the trading range upper bound, broke above the value area high (VAH, purple line) and, most likely, will close above the open of the significant sell bar (shaded pink) on June 16. This is bullish!
The 2 day, 4 day, and 8 day all look bullish. With regard to a long position, target 1 is $25,600 and target 2 is $29,959.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), preliminary support (PS), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), failed upthrust (FUT), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UTAD), last point of support (LPS), selling climax (SC), shakeout (SO), sign of strength (SOS), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
My idea for Gold, Wyckoff DistributionHere is a potential move on Gold to the downside, based on recent Bullish mitigation events and the fact we touched a major Weekly Supply zone, and that the bullish trend from 1680 is long due for a small correction down to an estimated 1770 or 1753.
(Disclaimer, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
BTC Reaction at Re-Distribution Trading Range Upper BoundThe BTC price continues to be observed within a Wyckoff re-distribution trading range (to be confirmed or to fail) with the upper bound given by the automatic rally (ARa) daily high and the lower bound given by the selling climax (SC) daily low.
The secondary test (ST) on July 3 had a Spring-like effect, catalyzing a very nice rally (+19%) that wicked above the trading range upper bound. I expect the BTC price to test the point of control (POC) around $20,472. Let’s see how the BTC price reacts at the POC (e.g., Will it fall through the POC support or reverse direction?).
With regard to the Phoenix Ascending (PA) indicator (lower panel), upward momentum (Energy, grey) is diminishing. We will be observing downward momentum soon. The blue line at level 70 will provide support for the BTC price. Given the levels and likely trajectories of the blue and red lines, a steady, step-wise move down (similar to the reaction from June 26 through July 3) seems likely.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), upthrust after distribution (UDAT), preliminary supply (PS), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
Nasdaq 100 in Wyckoff Re-Distribution Trading RangeThe Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) price continues to be observed in a down trending Wyckoff re-distribution trading range. The NDX price broke the support of the previous trading range on Jan 18, 2022 and the downward price move was halted several days later with the selling climax (SC) event.
Here I offer two scenarios for the future NDX price: (1) a bullish scenario, and (2) a bearish scenario.
For the bullish scenario to play out, the NDX price needs to break the closing price on May 25 ($11,935), May 26 ($12,282), and May 27 ($12,665). Failure to do so would invalidate the bullish scenario.
For the bearish scenario, the price would need to reverse then break the trading range support ($11,334). If this were to occur, the NDX would likely find support at around $10,500. Failure to break the trading range support would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Given the strong positive correlation between the NDX and BTC, which can be viewed as a risk-on stock, Bitcoin HODLers will be watching these events play out with great interest. Happy trading!
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), failed upthrust (FUT), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), upthrust after distribution (UTAD).
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
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Completed with my own developments taking into account the imbalance of supply and demand
Indicator Wyckoff Line created by the activity of professionals and identification of liquidity zones, to which the price is attracted.
Remember that the market is only driven by supply and demand. No technical indicators will tell you in advance whether a supply or demand imbalance has occurred.
Listening to the news can put you in a state of wrong decision, so make decisions only by the activity zones of professionals. By understanding where the imbalance of supply and demand is occurring, you can correctly build your strategy of work.
The indicator has a clever algorithm that takes into account the activity zones on several timeframes above the working chart.
It also includes a system of VSA, which determines the entry point for buying or selling a certain instrument. The entry point is determined by the imbalance of volume and price on the principle of lack of demand, or lack of supply in liquid areas.
Take a look at "Figure 1", which clearly shows the supply test after which the price reached the next liquidity level in WMT stock
The following example clearly shows a buy after a downtrend, which after the passage of the liquidity zone defined a clear signal to buy the stock AAPL
The essence of the indicator is that high volume is always a liquidity zone, into which the price will constantly strive. The indicator determines the liquidity zones of the professionals, which you set on the higher timeframes with the help of certain settings of the high volume bar. And along with the indicator package I provide a tutorial video where I tell you how to use this indicator. I also give some author's settings and recommendations for entering or exiting a position.
Now let's analyze the sell signal. Here is an example of one of the sell signals in which the indicator clearly worked:
The price reached the liquidity zone and it signaled three times that it was time to enter the position. Next, using completely different entry techniques, you could sell the KO stock or, if you were trending upwards and your techniques did not involve selling, you could simply exit your position in time.
The uniqueness of the indicator is that it works on a chart like crosses zero. By setting liquidity zones, you can use the signal of this indicator to enter a position without any market noise. Take a look at the example below where an entry was made into an MSFT stock:
snapshot
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Gold trading idea, XAUUSD analysis with Sell zone updateSee previous posts for details.
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* This is Pre-plan and an education post
That means my view can change, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on the M5 in my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not. So please don't just blindly follow this. The FX market is a quickly changing environment and it requires full focus on the levels for the precise entry with low risk.
* DISCLAIMER
We are the only one person who is responsible for our health, relationships, success, and money in our lives. So taking a risk on the markets based on this idea is only and only your decision. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
* Legal Risk Disclosure
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
Gold trading today, XAUUSD analysis and estimating targetDid you analysis XAUUSD today?
Here's a Wyckoff scenario for Gold.
We have a distribution schematic in 1h time frame.
What is the potential gold price target?
This is estimate target of Wyckoff distribution for taking profit of short orders above.
So we have safe target at 1817.5 (for above positions).
We're using P&F chart & measure movements.
Today, we'd like to see a pullback to LPSY for new short entries.
Let's see price action there.
We measure movements to take profit and find new timing zones for next orders.
Hope this post could help you make better XAUUSD analysis.
Do you want to see more posts about Gold trading?
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* This is Pre-plan and an education post
Our Gold's analysis based on Wyckoff method, Gann trading and price action.
That means my view can change, depending on how the price will arrive at the level and what will be happening on the M5 in my level of interest for entry. Then I will decide if I will enter or not. So please don't just blindly follow this. The FX market is a quickly changing environment and it requires full focus on the levels for the precise entry with low risk.
* DISCLAIMER
We are the only one person who is responsible for our health, relationships, success, and money in our lives. So taking a risk on the markets based on this idea is only and only your decision. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The author of the analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage.
* Legal Risk Disclosure
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.