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WYNN

The Big Short are US Casino OperatorsUS Casinos stocks are about to make 2008 look like a correction. Let me explain: US culture is not European culture, nor is it Asian culture. This is why I don't want to touch casino operators that derive most of their revenue from Macau, like Las Vegas Sands (70% of revenue is generated in Macau). Asians are comfortable wearing masks and do not have high rates of obesity, which is one of the worst things if you're infected with the COVID-19 virus. I am American, originally from NYC. I currently live in Spain. There are major differences in how rules are followed, and how policy is established. I won't get into my opinion on how Americans don't like being told what they can and cannot do, particularly rules established by the government, but there is a huge contrast when compared to countries in Europe or Asia. I am confident masks will not be the norm anytime soon, particularly in the "red states" where US casinos established their properties. Red states have incredibly high rates of obesity. If the virus plagues these states in waves over the next 6 - 12+ months (like experts believe it will), I think death rates will likely be higher in these regions. As death rates start rising, more local casino visitors will be a lot more careful on the type of entertainment they decide to seek out. This is the year where gambling is crossed off the entertainment list for everyone. Could you imagine being dumb enough to be older than 60 years old and going to a casino right now to play slots? Who plays slots? THE MAJORITY OF SLOT PLAYERS ARE OLDER THAN 55 YEARS OLD (according to a study done at Harvard) & slot machine revenue accounts for approximately 50% OF ALL GAMING REVENUES ON THE LAS VEGAS STRIP and 75% of ALL REVENUE in metropolitan and regional casinos. Ask yourself this question - if you were older than 60 years old, would you risk being infected to probably lose money at the slot machines? The economy has absolutely ZERO chance of bouncing back quickly, especially in states where technology is not their strong suit. Let's talk about farmers for a bit. Grain prices are getting crushed. In my opinion, we are on the verge of a deflationary spiral. US producers are in trouble if prices continue to break down. We are traders. We know the prices of agricultural commodities. Look. Out. Below. I don't know what percentage of farmers are gambling at any of the properties owned by Boyd Gaming, but I do know all of their properties are in states where agricultural farming is one of the most important industries in the state. Older farmers with thin margins are not likely to be their customers. Let's take a deeper dive into the geographic diversification of Boyd Gaming. Here are the properties they own: Properties: LAS VEGAS >30% obesity rate Aliante The Orleans Gold Coast Suncoast Sam's Town Eastside Cannery Cannery California Fremont Main Street Station Jokers Wild Eldorado ILLINOIS >30% obesity rate Par-A-Dice INDIANA Blue Chip Belterra IOWA >35% obesity rate Diamond Jo Dubuque Diamond Jo Worth KANSAS >30% obesity rate Kansas Star LOUISIANA >35% obesity rate Amelia Belle Delta Downs Evangeline Downs Sam's Town Shreveport Treasure Chest MISSISSIPPI >35% obesity rate Sam's Town Tunica IP Biloxi MISSOURI >35% obesity rate Ameristar St. Charles Ameristar Kansas City OHIO >30% obesity rate Belterra Park PENNSYLVANIA >30% obesity rate Valley Forge Now that I've given my basic economic argument on why I think US casino operators are in danger, let's confirm that with some charts: Finally, here is my analysis on BYD 3 years ago. I was a bull. Timing is everything. I am a technical trader, so no matter how logical this whole story is, the foundation of my strategy rests on the price action working in my favor. Know your stops based on the charts, not the story. Till next time.
NYSE:BYDShort
by Lanmar
Wynn Daily - Short - Medium Term Bearish Although a rather simple setup, I find this appealing nonetheless. Here are some key takeaways going into tomorrow's open. - We appear to be forming a bear pennant. Note the two wicks to the upside that ended in the Daily candle closing down. It appears that Shorts are prominent along this upper resistance. The volume also appears to be in confluence with the selloff as well. - We do have a minor Support level around $52 that goes back to 2008 - 2009 and 2015. We also have additional Support at approximately $42 from 2008 - 2009. - The RSI is forming a Hidden Bearish Divergence. Look for the RSI to top off here and begin to trend downwards. - I expect price action to somewhat resemble the squiggly lines I have drawn out. I expect a test towards the bottom of our bear pennant between $54 - $56. From there, I see two scenarios playing out. The first would result in a bounce back to the upper end of the bear pennant, but I would still favor a breakdown after the small bounce.The second would result in a breakdown towards my noted Support levels. - Given that the Futures are already down and that Hospitality has been taking a beating during COVID-19. I hold a bearish stance on $WYNN overall. - This idea IS INVALID if price were to break above the bear pennant and hold it upon a retest.
NASDAQ:WYNNShort
by Queen-jane
USDCAD bearish divergenceThanks for viewing, Just a quick one to say that there is some quite strong RSI divergence apparent on the daily timescale - a higher high compares with a (much) lower RSI peak. Maybe you have some reasons to be bullish on the USD right now - I don't. - Recent 0.5% emergency rate cut and expectation of another 0.25 - 0.5% cut next week - Early last week many saw negative interest rates as impossible - not so much towards the end of the week though. Cramer, Gundlach and others now envisage near term negative rates, - 10 year treasuries now WELL under 1% nominal return - this is already a negative real rate of return, The only possible way to make money off these instruments is in the hope that yields go to zero or lower, because rate increases during the duration of the instrument would wipe out significant value. - The US President has raised USD devaluation as a possibility as well as calling for lower and lower interest rates. Luckily for him, the US Fed has come to believe that it is their role to support the stock market so he will gt his wish - no matter the downstream implications for the US. - Ok, I am going off track for a bit. It is becoming evident just how badly managed the C****-19 outbreak is being handled in the US (especially Washington State - which has gone from containment to triage / management of the outbreak) with cases well on their way to going geometric - By the way; what large manufacturer is based in Washington State that will be affected by a freezing up of global travel, financing and has already had a string of super negative stories preceding this outbreak? The CDC that is so effective in containing an outbreak on the movies blocked testing for weeks, produced a flawed test that has had to be recalled, might just have produced an semi-effective test that will enable testing of the virus that is already out of control. The only way to stem the spread now is to enforce mandatory and aggressive social distancing, testing, and contact tracing (Singapore has seemingly prevented exponential growth at this point - as well as producing a 99% effective test that takes 3 hours). Clearly putting someone who doesn't believe in science in charge of a task-force trying to counteract a fast mutating, fast spreading virus is not helping and may cost hundreds and possibly thousands of people their lives - if you don't believe me just wait until the cases pass 1 million in the US which will likely be in late April to early May (this is someone else's prediction - not my own). Canada will undoubtedly also be affected, but it will respond appropriately and recover sooner. Soon we in the US will know definitively why a single payer healthcare system isn't socialism - but is just essential in a wealthy democratic society. In Canada people do not have to face bankruptcy if they get sick, they get paid sick days, they have a proper employment contract (I was blown away when I found out from people that worked on Wall Street for one of the largest Companies (at that time that they had "at will" contracts - meaning that even after years of dedicated service they could be terminated without notice and did not get paid sick leave). In the US people will avoid healthcare even when they are sick, even if they are employed and have insurance (because some cannot afford the co-pays and out of pocket expenses) resulting in people infecting their co-workers. There are some pretty fundamental structural reasons why the US is expected to not do as well as Singapore, Canada, or Hong Kong in the context of a extremely easily communicable virus. So, what I am saying is that there are several reasons for people to have the perception that the US is likely to be more impacted by this virus and very possibly is also incompetently run. No one wants any of this to happen, including me. LONG - I am long on gold and silver - assessing Platinum in case of mine closures, Unfortunately mining stocks may not be the winning trade in these circumstances (lower energy costs will help (energy intensive), but freezing up of corporate credit (credit intensive industry), potential virus induced mine shut-downs (labour intensive), and a general sell-off in equities may mean they remain a risky trade in the short-term). -Gold because I wanted to diversify away from fiat currency due to the certain dramatic expansion of the money supply / quantitative easing coming and possible helicopter drops is bullish for gold - the more money printed the more gold has to appreciate in $ terms to account for that - plus I like gold and there are very few safe havens left. I will not be selling gold when the crisis is over but will retain it as unsurance (insurance for when you are unsure and as protection against larger systemic crises with fiat currency or a potentially insolvent Government). Presently around 25% of assets are in gold (which I admit is possibly a bit much) and another 8% in silver. -Silver for the same reasons as gold, and because the % upside is potentially greater, and because I believe that the goldsilver ratio points to historic significant undervaluation of silver relative to gold. If / when the goldsilver ratio dips below 45 (currently 96) I will trade silver for gold - buying silver as a way to get more gold. Bullionstar in Singapore has some great offers - and low storage fees. -Platinum because it is a strategic metal in US industry and defence and domestic sources cannot fulfil US demand. 75% of supply is from South Africa and Southern Africa and is susceptible to labour, electricity supply issues. Potential play for Canadian and US platinum miners -but not yet. I am long some equities - but only unloved undervalued ones (hard to find these days) that have good fundamentals and solid revenue streams. SHORT - I am short USDCAD, USDCHF (flight to safety), and crude oil since it broke below $50, because of cratering demand - OPEC can not cut deeply enough to impact price without drastically cutting their national income. - I am short treasuries in that I wouldn't touch them under any circumstances. They currently guarantee a negative real return and are becoming more and more risky in my view, - I am short S&P500 and a number of individual Companies heavily exposed to supply chains in China (e.g. Qualcomm) or dependent on a majority of their revenue streams from China (e.g. Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands - both get more than 50% of their revenue from China), and some Airlines, also some Oil and Gas Companies.
Short
by flyinkiwi10
2
WYNN intra-week scalp for short&long The outstanding situation for WYNN Resorts. I really like this stock and I have been interested in it since the start of 2019. However, it has reached its significant resistance at $141 level. I would like to use it as an opportunity for shorts and see how it reacts on $132 level if this level will not have any significant strength I will add into my shorts down to $122 where I will change into longs and targeting double top which would be at $141 and higher.
NASDAQ:WYNN
by UnknownUnicorn6034472