XAGUSD - Silver, waiting for the start of the upward trend?!Silver is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If the decline continues, we can see a support limit. Stabilization of silver above the resistance range will provide us with the path of silver up to the supply zone, where we can sell in that range with a suitable risk reward.
In 2025, it might be wiser to adopt a contrarian approach, as the upcoming year has the potential to be one of the most turbulent, especially in the commodities market. The return of Donald Trump as the President-elect of the United States brings the threat of disrupting global trade flows through the imposition of heavy tariffs on U.S. imports. With a Congress led by Republicans, there seems to be little to restrain him this time. Furthermore, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the economic trajectory of China, the world’s second-largest economy and the biggest buyer of commodities.
Historically, the dollar tends to perform strongly in January and February. Interestingly, last month also saw a 2.6% rise in the DXY index, breaking a seven-year streak of December weakness. This performance suggests that macroeconomic factors and expectations around Trump’s policies were strong enough to counteract the usual seasonal drag. As the year begins with a positive phase for the dollar, any shift in the current narrative sustaining the dollar’s strength through the end of the year would require a significant change in economic dynamics.
The U.S. dollar started 2025 with a slight dip but quickly resumed its upward trend, as the fundamental drivers of the U.S. economy remain intact. The Federal Reserve, adjusting its projections downward, indicated that there might only be two rate cuts in 2024. This stance has further widened the yield gap between the U.S. and other major economies, as central banks in other regions move towards more accommodative monetary policies.
Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve, recently stated that the U.S. economy ended 2024 in good shape, exhibiting solid growth. He noted that the Federal Reserve is likely to take its time before implementing future rate cuts and sees no urgency in this regard. Meanwhile, questions remain about whether inflationary pressures will continue to persist.
Kugler also highlighted improvements in productivity and labor supply, which have played a key role in strengthening the economy. He emphasized that the labor market still appears stable, with the current unemployment rate remaining at historically low levels. Even as the labor market cools gradually, real wages remain elevated. Overall, while the labor market is slowly losing heat, it continues to demonstrate resilience. Similarly, the disinflation process is steadily progressing at a consistent pace.
