we are ready are you?At the time of writing this article/idea our full net short position in gold and silver is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward,last friday session was exciting enough to let our boredom breaks as precious metals sector was almost dead for past couple of days but as expected volatility wasn't big as many investors wanted it to be but really the dam has been cracked and we are seeing several signs pointing out for upcoming breakdown,, so let's quickly jump right to our gold
The yellow metal declined not sharply as we expected but it did closed the week below our rising support line,thing to note is volume was quite significant at least better than tuesday and wednesday when the breakdown happened which is one confirmation of our bearish view,that means our previous thoughts on yellow metal is still up-to date-
GOLD Target-In the case of gold we can’t figure out the self similar pattern, we think that current declining in gold will be similar to the previous short term-declines,based on the apex reversal technique gold is likely to bottom next week below 1280,this is our short term target area,however we have other targets too not based on apex reversal or rising support line but on the nov 2017 low,based on that gold is likely to go down to 1240–1250 target zone,both target areas are valid even more as they are supported by fib retracement levels and on the rally of entire nov2016-jan2018 rally
overall multiple signals are pointing out to much lower prices in gold , silver and mining stocks as we are seeing that movement has been started to build but it’s just a beginning big decline is just around the corner,it seems very likely that next 5–8 trading days will be highly volatile
Based on the comparison to the previous declines,the two mentioned targets could be seen under the date of 15th april
we are ready for the silver slide are you?-we saw the visible breakdown below our rising support line on friday and then white metal slides more to its previous lows,we encountered the same situation back in late dec 2017 where we witnessed a small breakdown below the support line but that precedes a big daily decline to the previous lows,overall we support our previous thoughts on white metal-,similar pattern in white metal is ongoing for now,triangle apex showing generating more sell signal for white metal so we could seen a decline very shortly in silver prices,so now let’s figure out how much silver can slide in near term? Based on our analysis silver is likely to slide to 15.200–15.700 before this month ends,that could be a very volatile movement
There are some more valid reasons which are giving us this target area and that’s the comparison of previous decline,if the same pattern will be continue we can expect the movement of decline to be same to the size of decline by which the whole pattern has been startedhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QDALHLaW/
Gold stocks reached new 2018 low-many investors thought that friday was not the exciting session as they were expected and we agree but are they missing something? for sure on friday session breakdown below the 2018 low has been confirmed,we already saw one more close below our previous so in total we have seen second close this time,to confirm the breakdown we prefer atleast 3-4 breakdown below the significant level as this was the weekly close it is something valuable,so the implication is clearly bearish
In our previous article we mentioned that gold miners could still move higher but the likelihood of under performing during upswing is somewhat greater,hence the HUI index managed to move up to 174 and then decline again,thing to note is during the upswing HUI index unable to close above 2017 low,this point is validating our bearish view even more
our positions-gold entry-1330 ,stop loss-1386 1st t.p-1280
our position-silver entry-16.700 stop loss-17.440 T.p-14.630
