XAGUSD (SILVER) ____ INCOMING BULLISH RALLYHello Guys,
As we can see this pair has buy-side liquidity to hunt on its way to the weekly FVG.
Also, since I expect a bearish move on the dollar index, it simply gives more conviction in this rally.
I also did an analysis on this pair last week which played out as speculated.
Follow for more updates.
See my previous XAGUSD analysis
XAGUSD
See this week's analysis on DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY
DXY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
Cheers,
David
Xagusdsignals
XAGUSD ____ SELECTING THE BEST PAIRS TO TRADEHello Traders,
Using XAGUSD (Silver) as a case study, I will explain why you need to select the best possible pair to trade. The reason why this is so is because almost all the FX pairs are correlated one way or the other, hence you must always choose the one with the best narrative and the best setup.
When I say narrative, I mean the reason why you expect a particular move in the price i.e. a rally or drop in price.
Now using XAGUSD, the dollar index just entered a weekly order block (you can look at it on your chart) which could likely mean a short-term bearish move. With this knowledge, you now know that the dollar is likely to be the weaker currency among all dollar pairs. The next thing you want to do is scan all dollar pairs, looking for the one that is well positioned to show strength against the dollar to take a trade.
The reason why I picked XAGUSD, is because price entered a weekly demand-side FVG which should cause a rally in price. We also have another weekly FVG above the current price that is likely to be filled. Next, you can notice we have buy-side liquidity just below the weekly FVG. This gives price more reasons to rally.
Asides XAGUSD, other well-structured pairs are GBPUSD, USDCHF & EURUSD.
Always put your best foot forward.
Follow me for more updates, learnings and trade ideas.
Below is my previous analysis on XAGUSD at the start of the week. I expected price to go into the FVG first before the dump to my target, however, price went to my target first so I'm guessing it's time to mitigate the buy=side weekly FVG.
Cheers,
David
XAGUSD are you rdy for best short 😁Silver Woe to those who do not see the downward trend of silver.
The trend of silver is downward, on the other hand, silver's older sister, gold, is not in a good position, and gold's younger sister, which is silver, should be led down with it.
The trend of silver is currently in a bearish base, so we have the next bearish wave ahead of us.
The trend of silver is for 20.02677 and then it is 18.93789 dollars, so if you want to open a trade, don't forget the trend of shorting and selling silver.
XAGUSD First major sell signal in 3 months!We had a blast with our buy signal on Silver (XAGUSD) in late February as we caught the exact bottom on the oversold 1D RSI:
Now the tide is turning as the STOCH RSI on the 1W time-frame is vastly overbought and is waving the first sell signal after more than 3 months. This doesn't mean that the price can't extend slightly its rise, but this is an optimal level to start adding sells based on our long-term strategy.
Right now the price is just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, having broken above the dashed Lower Highs but is near the dotted Lower Highs. A max extension near the March 07 2022 High and the 0.786 Fib isn't likely but isn't unrealistic at the same time. As mentioned though, that is good enough for us to sell and as of today we switch back to being bearish on Silver, targeting initially the 2 year Pivot at 21.750.
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XAGUSD Next MovePair : XAGUSD ( Silver / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame and it has Breakout the Lower Trend Line and Completed the Retracement
Break of Structure
Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
Rejecting from Strong S / R Level
Divergence
Impulse Correction Impulse
Elliot Waves
XAGUSD Our great masterplan continues to work to perfection.Since early last year, we have been following a certain buy low/ sell high approach on Silver (XAGUSD) after we identified that it has been trading inside a 2-year Channel Down:
We most recently turned bearish again on precisely the right time on our previous January 31 sell call:
Right now however, with the price having broken on Friday below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 30, it hit the 20.625 Support formed by the November 21 Low. This is potentially the formation of the Right Shoulder of a giant Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. With the 1D RSI deep below the oversold barrier, this is were we will attempt our first medium term buy targeting the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), any of the two gets hit first.
We will attempt an additional buy entry near the Higher Lows trend-line (holding since the September 01 Low), as this would complete a -19.50% decline, similar to the June 06 - July 14 pattern. Its target was a +15.10% rise to the 0.618 Fibonacci, but again we will settle for just the (green) Symmetrical Resistance Zone and the 1D MA50 as targets.
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XAGUSDWe are witnessing a decreasing trend in a channelized space. We are currently witnessing a negative divergence and we are on a static resistance in the range of 21.76186.
We have 2 scenarios ahead:
1. In case of breaking the resistance, you can experience a growth up to the ranges of 21.86676 and 21.95601 or between them and then continue the decrease up to the specified ranges.
2. It cannot break the resistance, the divergence works and the 3 specified targets of the harmonic patterns that have been completed in the ranges of 21.69113-21.59853-21.52730 can be considered as targets. If all of them fail We have the important range of 21.40745 in the intersection with the B area of the pattern, which is considered a strong resistance.
XAGUSD Hanging on a tight thread about to turn bearish.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 ( orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension .
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
At the moment, with a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that Silver is has been pushing downwards on the 1.382 Fib treating it as strong of a Resistance so far as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically since the price broke below the 1D MA50, the confirmation of the downtrend will come if it breaks inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which is exactly where today's low hit. That was the Bearish Signal on the April 19 2022 Ichimoku breach.
If that happens, we can see a nose-dive even as low as the 0.382 Channel Fib. Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame is being rejected on the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD closing above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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XAGUSD Next MovePair : XAGUSD ( Silver / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Bearish Channel as a Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame and Made a Breakout of the Upper Trend Line
Divergence
Break Of Structure
Consolidation Phase in Short Time Frame wait until it Breaks the Upper Zone or the Lower Zone
Completed the " 12345 " Impulsive Wave and Corrective " ABC " Wave
XAGUSD 16-20 Jan Next MovePair : XAGUSD ( Silver / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Rising Wedge in Long Time Frame and Rejecting from the Upper Trend Line with Strong Bearish Price Action as Impulse
Making Correction in the Form Bullish Channel and Rejecting from the Upper Trend Line
Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
S- R Level
Resistance Level
Divergence
Completed " ABC " Corrective Wave
Silver could drop 2k pipsSince the low back in June 2022, Silver has traded in a range and although there were 4 attempts for a break under 18usd figure and even a false break at the beginning of September, bulls held strong and finally won the battle.
XagUsd started to rise in October and broke above the resistance of the 6 months range in November. A nice rise followed and the precious metal has gained more than 6k pips in 3 months if we count from the bottom to the top.
However, at this point, Silver looks like it wants to correct and the first and the second trading days of the year are Pin Bars.
The ascending trendline is also broken to the downside and these could be signs of an imminent drop.
My strategy is to sell rallies against 22.80 with a target at the 22 zone. Also, a deeper correction could drive the price even at 21 important support.
XAGUSD Hit the extreme top of the 2 year Channel Down.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better since our September 12 buy signal as following the Lower Lows Double Bottom, it not only broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), but also made a new Extreme High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal 3 months ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out.
So what now? With a slight modification to better adapt to the new Highs and Lows, we see that the rejection 3 days ago is so far as strong as the March 08 High during the Ukraine - Russia war. Now of course the fundamentals are not the same but technically as long as the price is below the 1.382 Channel Fib, we should see a 1D MA50/ MA200 test, at least on the short-term. If after that the price fails to regain the 1D MA50, we can even see a nose-dive back to the 0.382 Channel Fib.
Notice also how the RSI on the 1W time-frame just entered the Resistance Zone which since February 2021 was rejected and formed all major Lower Highs of this Channel Down.
In order for us to call for a bullish extension and invalidation of this long-term bearish trend, we ideally want to see XAGUSD not just closing above the 1.382 Channel Fib but above the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which failed to get tested during the March was High. In that case we will target initially the 26.900 March High on the short-term.
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SILVER (XAGUSD) - LONG Position - SwingI am going long on XAGUSD (Silver).
My Elliott Wave count points me to a C leg in an Impulse or Diagonal as the next possible move.
XAGUSD Long - Technical Analysis:
- ABC (Minute (orange)) sequence
- Bullish Bat Harmonic
- Bullish Divergence
- 78.6-88.6% Fibonacci Retracement of Minor A (white)
- 161.8% Fibonacci Extension of Minutes A&B (orange)
Silver Buy Orders - Trading Signal:
Entry @ 18.10
SL @ 16.40
TP @ 20.00 / 21.40 / 21.80
XAGUSD | New perspective Despite been on a long term bearish momentum since the beginning of the year, the breakout of the bearish trend line on the daily timeframe a couple of weeks ago opened up the possibility of a potential reversal pattern in the coming week(s). However, since the breakout of the trendline we have noticed the appearance of a consolidation phase just above the $21.000 zone which also reflects selling pressure in the last 2 weeks.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
XAGUSD Huge sell opportunitySilver (XAGUSD) has been trading since September exactly like we wanted it to, as we have been tracking its long-term Channel Down pattern correctly:
Our 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) target has been hit, with the price also marginally breaking above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down (Fibonacci level 1.0). That doesn't call for a bullish extension towards the 1.382 Fib like the Ukraine - Russia was extreme did, as the price quickly retraced back below the 1D MA200.
This continues to replicate the rebound after the Internal Lower Lows, which is the fractal that helped us take that buy trade on September. That sequence, following the 1D MA200 rejection, pulled-back to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Since the current top on the September - November bullish leg was made a Fib level higher, we are setting the targeted low higher as well, on the 0.382 Fib instead of the 0.236.
The next buy opportunity would be when the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold barrier again.
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XAGUSD | New perspective With the identification of a reversal pattern above a strong demand zone in the 4H timeframe, I am of the opinion that we might be witnessing buying traction during the course of the new week's trading session.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.