XAGUSD ShortList of confluences:
1: Trendline Breakout
2: Rising Wedge Breakout
3: Bearish Market Structure LH + LL
When we look at the bigger picture trend, we can see that sliver is in an overall bearish down trend. We can clearly see a trendline breakout and a rising wedge breakout in the
direction of the bigger trend. This is followed by visible bearish market structure as price is creating lower highs and lower lows. These combined with an extremely strong
US dollar and a 40 year high CPI data release, we are expecting silver to trend lower as the fed continues with its aggressive rate hikes.
Xagusdsignals
XAGUSD | New perspective The appearance of a reversal pattern around the bearish trendline identified on the daily time frame insinuates a bearish momentum for the week.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) is high-risk and unsuitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SILVER Can't rise more unless this level breaksSilver (XAGUSD) has been pulling back in the last 3 days following an impressive +18% rise since the September 28 Low. As you see, we've charted Silver's pattern since February 01 2021, which is a Channel Down, most effectively viewed using the Fibonacci channel levels. This is basically the pattern we used to analyze the metal almost a month ago, and it helped us call accurately that bullish break-out:
After breaking above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the price didn't reach as high as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but it did hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the level that the October 2021 rise topped (on November 12 2021) and got rejected back to the 0.236 Fibonacci a month later. The similarities between the two fractals are obvious even between their 1D RSI sequences where are you see, based on the symmetry, Silver might have made a peak similar to that of November 12 2021.
If the price continues to replicate the 2021 pattern, then we can target the 0.236 Fib again. The ideal confirmation will be given once the 1D MA50 breaks again. So trade this in accordance to your tolerance levels. The lowest risk buy would be exactly on the 0.236 Fib.
On the bull side, the above strategy is invalidated if the price breaks and closes above the 1D MA200 first. In that case, we can start buying again and target the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was reached in March 2022 at the height of the Ukraine - Russia war.
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Silver- 19.50-20 zone is very important for bullsOn Monday, Silver has a strong bull break above 20usd very important zone given by the horizontal, psychological, and falling trend line of a channel.
Yesterday the price had an intraday correction and at this moment looks ready to continue its ascent.
The next target is 22 resistance and for this scenario to be valid 20 and slightly under should remain intact.
Buy dips in that zone can be a good strategy
Silver can rise 3000 pipsAfter the recent drop under 18, Silver corrected higher and reached 19.50-19.80 resistance given by the horizontal level and the falling trend line of a falling wedge pattern.
A new drop followed, but this new attempt of breaking under 18 failed (at least so far)
Considering the importance of the 18 zone support, a level that offered resistance back in 2019 and 2020, I expect a reversal to the upside from Silver and bulls can buy against the recent low with 20.60 and 21.80 in extension as targets.
I will remain bullish as long as 17.80 is intact
XAGUSD Hit the 1D MA50. Major break-out possible!Silver (XAGUSD) hit today its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 4 weeks (since Aug 17). It did so after rebounding on an Internal Lower Lows trend-line similar to that of August 09 - September 29 2021. This is basically the formation that emerged within the 1.5 year long-term Channel Down pattern that has been dominating the bearish trend since the February 01 2021 market high.
The Aug-Sep 2021 fractal rebounded after hitting the Internal Lower Lows and following the 1D MA50 break-out, it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.786 Channel Fib retracement. Notice that both fractals made the 1D MA50 test on the 0.382 Fib. The 1D RSI patterns among the two are also similar. As a result, if the price closes above the 1D MA50, we will target the 1D MA200 or the 0.786 Fib (whichever comes first, most likely th 0.786 Fib will).
We are only willing to short if the price closes below the Channel Down and target the Bearish Extreme of -0.382, just like the Bullish Extreme of the March 2022 Russia - Ukraine war, targeted the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
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XAGUSD At the bottom of the 2 year Channel DownSilver (XAGUSD) has been approaching the bottom of the long-term Channel Down that has been trading in since the February 01 2021 High. This makes it an automatic technical buy targeting first the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in extension. This is depicted on the 1D RSI as well which is rising after breaking below the 30.00 oversold level.
As long as the bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line holds, the price action is a buy. If it breaks, we may see the price drop as low as the -0.382 Fibonacci extension, which is the symmetrical move that happened during the March 2022 war extreme.
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XAGUSD Maybe temporary bounce unless the 1D MA50 breaks.Silver (XAGUSD) has been on a short-term rise since the May 13 Low. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down since May 18 2021, so practically a whole year of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The recent one, isn't a solid Lower Low however, in fact it resembles the August 09 2021 Low, which despite a short-term rise, it failed exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and got rejected to a Lower Low.
It was only when the price later broke above the 1D MA50 that the uptrend was sustained and eventually made a new Lower High. As a result, with the 1D Death Cross imminent (when the 1D MA50 crosses below the 1D MA200), it is best to buy either on the exact bottom (Lower Lows) trend-line of the Channel Down or if the 1D MA50 breaks first. Notice how in the rise to the Lower High, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) also rejected the uptrend twice. Keep those in mind if you engage into long-term trading within this pattern. It is also important to have the 1W RSI Resistance and Support Zones in the equation.
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XAGUSD Pull-back are a buy to $29.00 - 30.00What was set in motion last October when the price rebounded on the 1W MA100, is taking place now, as Silver (XAGUSD) broke above its 1W MA50.
On the shorter time-frame of 1D (current chart), the price appears to be replicating the December 2020 aggressive rise, which initially reached almost the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (28.000) and after a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) pull-back, tested the 30.000 Resistance.
This time, the rally broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 16 2021. Our long-term strategy is to buy every pull-back up to the 1D MA50 and look to book profits within the 29.000 - 30.000 Zone.
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XAG NEAR FUTURE PREDICTIONS (1HCHART)Technical Analysis Summary
XAG/USD
TREND ANALYSIS
We have 2 Downtrend in red color (Internal and long term)
We have 1 Uptrend in green color (Internal Uptrend)
Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks(Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend).
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
We have many resistance and support levels that I have mentioned above.
I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS).
The Yellow SUPPORT and RESISTANCE Levels are levels already tested and are not an entry level I added it only for explanation purposes to show my strategy.
Sorry I did not post lately since I had covid
Good luck everyone, stay safe!
If you need help don't hesitate to send me a message or comment
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Trading Involves High Risk
Not Financial Advice
Exercise Proper Risk Management
XAG Buy/Sell + Exit TradesThe ENTRY/TP zones are your entries as well as your exits.
Everything above the current candlestick is resistance, you would treat every zone above as a sell/potential buy break.
Everything below the current candlestick is support, which you would then treat every zone below as a buy/potential sell break if it hits the pip rule.
More info on the strategy and how to play it:
How To Play The Chart Entries/Exits:
Buy at green support entry, if it breaks by -35 pips (count it out) then enter a sell and ride to TP1, 2 and 3. Trail stop at each TP which means place your stop loss in profit but with enough room to be able to continue the sell if it continues. Same thing at resistance, sell but if broken by 35 pips then enter the buy and ride to TP1. Each TP is a support or resistance zone , so you could then even take a sell after TP1 for the buys have been hit and if it breaks out then just repeat.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated! Thank you to all of those who support me on a weekly basis, it really does mean a ton to me!
XAGUSD Strong rally towards the end of the yearAs the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting Silver since late October, it is a good time for me to update my outlook on the metal. So far my September 30 trading plan remains valid:
As you see we caught the market bottom on that exact date and the price has been rising ever since, creating an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in the process, which is a technical bullish formation.
Last time we saw the 1D MA50 turning into a Support after a break-out following a rebound on the 21.650 Support, was in January 2021. As you see that was also after a new High and what followed was a rally that gave a new Higher High. With the 1D CCI being also on a symmetrical Support level (-100.00), I am expecting a similar rally this time also, which can last as long as until the end of the year. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level has always served as a strong Resistance and that is an ideal target for swing buyers.
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XAGUSD hit the 1W MA100. Best long-term buy for $40.Silver (XAGUSD) is posting a bullish reaction (rebound) after marginally breaking below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) last week. During the metal's previous multi-year Bull Cycle and more specifically its parabolic rise (2003 - 2011), all three times that the price hit the 1W MA100 (excluding of course the outside catalys of the 2008 subrime mortgage crisis that caused a sharp market crash), it rebounded and rose to at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. The LMACD sequences of today and those preceeding the 1W MA100 hits of the past, are also fairly similar.
If last week was the bottom then, the 2.0 Fibonacci extension is currently a little over $40. We consider this the most optimal long-term buy opportunity.
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XAGUSD hit the 1 year Rectangle Support. Buy signal long-term.Silver hit yesterday the 21.664 Support level of the 1 year Rectangle pattern it has been trading in since August 2020. Even though the price marginally broke it, if the 1W (weekly) candle closes above the Support, then the long-term Rectangle pattern remains valid.
The 1D MACD shows we may be in a similar situation as with the November 30 2020 bottom. If so, then we can expect a rebound back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A weekly close above the 1D MA50 would be a new signal for a bullish extension and I will resume buying targeting just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 27.800.
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Silver Analysis, Bears in controlHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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XAGUSD is bearish on the long-term outlook. The sellers were in charge of the Silver market since June and the bears’ momentum has been increasing. The price has been decreasing accordingly.
The market has pushed above the 23 levels and holding near the support zone, and all the former support levels of 25 and 24 has turned into resistance levels.
Using the Elliot wave theory we can see that the market is having a corrective wave right now which could push it near the 24$ zone where a battle will happen between the Bears and Bulls, and if the Bears wins then the price will be going down near the 22$ level as confirmed by the Elliot theory.
Different Scenarios for the market :
Scenario 1 :
The Market is holding at 23.709 near the support zone from 23.649 to 23.437, The bears are trying to drop the market as much as they can so we could be seeing a breakout happening at that level that would lead the market near the 22$ level.
Scenario 2 :
The Bulls are trying to gain control back over the market as we saw from the last movement on August 23, where the market price jumped from 22.897 and hit 23.938, but they will have to show a lot of power to break the resistance zone at 24.004 to 24.147, But if they were able to break that resistance then we will be seeing the market price going back up near the 25$ level.
Technical indicators show:
1) The market is below the 10 20 50 100 200 MA and EMA (Bearish sign)
2) The MACD is below the 0 line showing that the market is Bearish, With a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line that explains the latest push that happened.
3) ADC is at 48.73 showing that the market is trending, With a negative crossover between DI+ (15.51) and DI- (29.99)
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 23.649 1) 24.004
2) 23.437 2) 24.147
3) 23.294 3) 24.359
Fundamental point of view :
Silver prices rallied and remained buoyed, closing with a doji day at the highs of the trading session. This came despite a selloff in gold prices. Durable goods orders declined less than expected and new orders ex-transportation were unchanged. The dollar eased slightly, which helped silver prices gain a toe hold.
Silver of course has a certain amount of an industrial component built into it, and it is worth noting that industrial numbers have fallen quite a bit over the last several weeks. That being said, if we see the US dollar sell-off drastically, it is likely that the silver market may catch a bit of a bid, at least temporarily based upon that alone. According to fxempire.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts and news for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading
XAGUSD Multi-decade Cup & Handle?Silver pulled back on Friday and today along with most major commodities due to the USD showing strength on the incredible Nonfarm Payrolls numbers. All this short-term price action though can be viewed as nothing but noise on one pattern that has been developing since 1980 and may be close to completion.
I am using the very rare in financial analysis yearly time-frame where each candle represents 1 year. As you see since 1980, XAG has been forming a giant Cup & Handle (C&H) pattern. This formation tends to break aggressively to the upside once completed.
Two elements play a key role here:
* The 31.000 level and
* The 1Y MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you see during the formation of this pattern, Silver may have made its All Time High (and Double Top assuming 1980 was very close) at $50 but it is the $31 level that plays a critical part on a yearly basis as Silver has never closed a year above it even though it broke it four times.
At the same time during the formation of the C&H, the price never closed below the 1Y MA50 (blue trend-line) and only had marginal wick breaks (6 times), which makes this the strongest Support. What makes the case of this pattern even stronger is that last year also almost bounced off the 1Y MA50.
Investors should therefore keep an eye on the 31.000 level. If we manage to close this year (or any as a matter of fact) above it, then it will be a major first bullish sign that the Cup and Handle is close to being completed and that new ATH will follow.
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XAGUSD approaching the 9 month SupportSilver has been printing Lower Lows since the May 18 High and is now close to the 23.750 Support, which has been holding since December 15, 2020.
If the 1D MA50 Death Cross is avoided (may have a March 2020 effect if it doesn't), then we can expect the Support to hold and rebound back to the Lower Highs trend-line. In that case, the target is 26.700 (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
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