Xau-usd
XAUUSD 27/8/23XU is the first of our USD correlated pairs and from this you will see a very similar markup for all of the USD related pairs.
This setup is showing you we are looking for sell moves overall, BUT this range was created by a news events (Jackson hole) so we don't want to blindly follow the bias down when we know the news event ranges often prove many traders wrong, this is exactly why we don't jump in as we would with a normal trend move.
So as it stands we are looking at a news range that tells us we want to run the sw low, we will wait for price to tap into our POI if it is willing to deliver to it, once we get to the POI we are only entering if we see a clear confirm and breakdown in our favour.
Lets keep and open mind for this as we are fully aware of the probability of this playing out fully.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
XAUUSD 13/8/23XU here with another USD correlated setup which of course is showing us a downside bias, but of course we will stay tuned in and see where this really wants to go, overall we are a looking for shorts from to carry on lower into a new range.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
GOLD (XAUUSD): Expecting a strong reaction from hereIn my view we're getting to the end of Gold's sell-off, testing the weekly support, testing the daily descending fall line, coming to the end of a falling wedge. We're oversold on the lower timeframes, what's not to like about this buying opportunity!
DXY is hanging on in there, with CPI tomorrow, like the news on Friday, I still don't expect DXY to break the falling resistance line, this should catapult gold.
So, I'm waiting to get in on gold for a big move up!!
XAUUSDWithin the recent trend, every time price broke a recent low, price retested a variable % of the previous high attempt. I want to see if price can test up to 50% of the previous high if the dollar grows weaker. There is also divergence on the 1 hour timeframe. I entered a few moments before the publish so excuse the long position tool.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Channel boundary test before the up?Gold, this is what I'm thinking for this week and longer term:
On the LTF (4HR) I think we'll fall at the start of the week due to:
DXY strength
Reducing momentum (MACD)
Rejection at 1963.5
Localised LHLL's
EMA7 and EMA20 crossing below EMA50
If I see a suitable entry around the current level then I'll be in, looking for a first TP around 1940 and then on to the channel around 1931.
This rising parallel channel border is major support, that 'should' carry Gold back to the ATH region of 2075.
We've hit the ATH region 3 times:
August 2020 - Pandemic
March 2022 - War
May 2023 - USD softening
The current impulse move (from Nov 2022) is looking strong with solid monthly bull candles, limited (comparatively) rejection from 2067 (May 2022), so we 'may' well get a new ATH soon - my theory being 3 failed attempts to break 2075 makes the fourth more likely to do it, especially with the frequency between attempts increasing:
August 2020 - March 2022 - 18 months
March 2022 - May 2023 - 13 months
May 2023 - > 7 months ?? (looking at my charts if it's going to happen it will be by November 2023)
If this is going to happen, I think we need to see some push down onto the ascending channel boundary to create momentum; things are getting very squeezed in the upper corner of this triangle now, a lot of upward pressure.
Fundamentally there's loads of reasons for gold to be strong:
Interest rates set to fall
USD / DXY unlikely to see highs of last year based on my other analysis
India and China hold value in Gold
Likelihood of other global disasters, war, global-warming etc
Really interested to hear your opinion on this too, what do you think?
XAUUSD 30/7/23Gold showing us that we could see some bearish movement coming this is exactly the same as what we said with the other US dollar correlated pairs that we expected to shift bearish later on in the week now whether gold will shift bearish at the same time or whether we will invalidate this various range before shifting lower overall the analysis is telling us we need to look towards this POI now as I've stated before any news ranges and news order blocks can sometimes be swept out before price gave the true move so please keep this in mind as we approach this point of interest.
XAUUSD, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice is testing a major resistance level which is an overlap resistance + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. There is also a descending resistance that suggests there could be bearish momentum.
A reversal from here could see prices drop to the 1902 recent swing low.
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XAUUSD (GOLD)Hi traders,
Gold at the range between support and resistance , now testing resistance if can’t break the resistance can drop to support and break the support after breaking the support it’s work as resistance price getting test to resistance and drop again to next support zone , but if can break resistance can rise more to next resistance and will reject from here and drop to support zones , we need confirmation if opened 4H candle bellow the resistance we can entry short but if can break and open 4H candle above resistance can rise to next resistance and we entry to long .
XAUUSD GOLD: What I'm watching this weekGold has been on a retracement since the May 4th high. At the end of last week it broke but failed to close below the 61.8 fib of the last impulse move up, this is an interesting level as it may indicate the retracement is done?
To the upside though we have a falling dynamic trendline that's acted as resistance since the early May peak. That peak at 2066 matches the peak in March, which could be a double top (however needs to break 1680 neckline for confirmation of a full reversal imho).
So are we looking at a small retracement, or the start of a reversal? It's too early to say, however looking at DXY we seem to be building momentum, and if we see further strength this week in the USD then this should put more pressure on Gold, and I expect a fall-back to support around 1865.
Breaking the trendline and resistance to the upside, if confirmed with a breakout and retest of the descending trendline, should see us return to resistance around 1975.
Personally I think gold is reversing, I believe we will see more USD strength, and Gold will either drop from here, or drop from the 1975 level, without reaching May's high again for some time.
As always I'm monitoring trendlines and the LTF's for any suitable entries.
GOLD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISGold Price Forecasts Revised Lower For Year-End 2023 And 2024 At ABN AMRO
In her extensive XAU strategic note to clients, Georgette Boele, Senior Economist at ABN AMRO warns of a downgrade to the bank's 2023 and 2024 gold price forecasts.
The analyst cites the gold price being close to all-time highs, a level that should it fall, might not be seen for another five years. With FED monetary policy easing being prices-in, the upside is likely to be limited from here.
Gold prices so far have been erratic in 2023. The price of gold started the year on a bullish note, recording a 13% surge in prices by May 4.
According to the analyst, however, momentum has since flagged, and the precious metal now seems to be in a phase of consolidation.
This change in trend aligns with Boele's observation that investors may be hesitant to buy at current levels, especially with the specter of a significant drop looming over the market; hinting at the risk-averse nature of gold investors, who tend to prioritise long-term stability over short-term gains.
Boele's shift in her Federal Reserve outlook significantly informs her predictions.
Originally, she did not expect an aggressive rate-cutting spree in the short term but believed that the easing cycle would commence towards the end of 2023. However, recent developments have led her to revise these expectations.
"Last week, we changed our Fed view and also our US dollar view" says Boele.
"We now expect a recession to start in Q4 and rate cuts to come in Q1 2024. We expect the last rate hike of 25bp at the Fed’s July meeting and no rate cuts this year. We still forecast aggressive rate cuts in 2024. We now have a total of 175 basis point of rate cuts in 2024," she adds.
This forecast indicates her belief that the Federal Reserve will take assertive measures to stimulate the economy and combat the recessionary pressures she expects to emerge.
In line with her altered expectations for the Federal Reserve, Boele's perspective on the US dollar has also evolved.
With fewer rate cuts expected for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, she has upgraded her view on the US dollar, seeing this as a positive turn.
This shift indicates her belief in the resilience of the US Dollar and its likely performance in the face of adverse economic conditions.
"As a result of the change in our Fed view we have upgraded our view on the US dollar," says the analyst.
"We no longer have a rate cut for the Fed this year and fewer total rate cuts in 2023-2024. This is a positive for the US dollar. Our view is roughly in line with the market."
Boele's points out that rate expectations, both real and nominal, alongside the outlook for the US dollar, are crucial drivers for gold prices.
Consequently, her adjusted outlook for the Federal Reserve and the US dollar has led her to downgrade her gold price forecast for 2024.
"So we have also downgraded our gold price forecast for 2024 to 2,000 USD per ounce (from 2,200 before) We now have for 2023 and 2024 a year-end forecast of 2,000," says the economist.
Despite the Federal Reserve's potential easing typically being seen as a boon for gold prices, Boele sees limited upward potential for gold in relation to the US dollar. Investors, she notes, currently hold net-long gold positions, and there is a risk that part of these will be liquidated.
"What is the reasoning behind this?" she asks.
"The start of monetary policy easing by Fed is generally positive for gold prices. But as the market has already anticipated this, it is already reflected in the gold price. Therefore we think that upside in gold prices versus the US dollar is rather limited from current levels, " she adds.
Boele offers a word of caution for investors. Given the currently high levels of gold prices and potential risks, she suggests that being long may not be the most attractive stance from a risk-reward perspective.
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BUY TRADE SETUP ON XAUUSDHey Trader,
Check this analysis out on XAUUSD.
The pair is in a bullish / ascending channel, and seeing the Yellow metal breakout of the bearish trendline, making a good retests back to the previous demand due to NFP release. It is expedient that Gold make a new run towards $2,022.
With expectation of seeing more downside movement on DXY it could help bounce Gold towards the $2,050
Keep a close tab on Gold.