XAUCAD
Gold: Wkly long setupAs markets continue to see headlines about delayed negotiations for the China and U.S. tariffs, gold continues to be stuck in what seems to be a longer term daily bull flag-- declining channel-- making well enough defined lower-highs and lower-lows. My downside target this week for gold is 1448, where I expected gold to react off of the previous resistance now current support. This would result in a double bottom forming at the 3rd lower-low in the downward structural channel starting at the beginning of September. We can look for long entries at the key level of 1448, and look to take profit at the upper descending channel/ trend-line.
If 1448 doesn't hold on the 4-hrly time frame, my next downside target is 1400 which is a key level just above the 200 day MA. I think December will be an interesting month for Gold because of how the transition of the U.S> and China trade policy as well as the fact that the European auto sector is of focus for the Trump administration. There are alot of things that need to develop this year and regardless of seasonality and holiday I think it will be fairly active in terms of risk-on vs risk-off.
GOLD - Bullish wedge formingWE expect US dollar to fall and the bond market to be propped up to force money into stocks and push stocks higher
If gold falls --> Dollar go up --> the whole world falls in terms of fiat purchasing power --> Chaos
Will they kill paper gold once and for all and make the world's fiat burn?
Phenix rises?
Debt has risen since 2011 why has gold and silver gone down? Fundamentals --> The market will return to fair value and the % increase in gdp to debpt should correspond with increase in gold if when paper manipulation ends / gets overwhelmed
GOLD - 2008 support tested - COT -> BullRunWe have been wrong about how far they are willing to take the world down the shit hole once again just to surpress gold in $
Buyers should come in here
Hard to justify a sell
Crazy divergence daily RSI
US dollar craziness
10/30 spread craziness
Stock market will not make new gains if gold continues to fall either
They have to make up their minds now --> FED
Good entry as XAUCAD near channel support againXAUCAD has been moving inside an upward channel since Jun 2013. If you measure in CAD, gold has been in a slow bull market for the past 4 years.
Remember in early July 2017, XAUCAD hits channel support and immediately bounced back up. The long term structure still holds.
This is almost the same situation as 1 year ago, which was described in my linked trade idea which turned out to be highly profitable.
Unless the channel is broken, the recommended strategy is to long this pair.
XAUCAD turns back higher after hitting channel supportXAUCAD has been moving inside an upward channel since Jun 2013. If you measure in CAD, gold has been in a slow bull market for the past 4 years.
Prior to this time, the channel support was hit 4 times, in Dec 2013, Dec 2014, Dec 2015, and Dec 2016. (Coincidence?)
Now 2 weeks ago in early July 2017, XAUCAD hits channel support again, and immediately bounced back up. The long term structure still holds.
Unless the channel is broken, the recommended strategy is to long this pair.
USDCAD GIVES US A GOOD TIME TO SHORTHI Folks There is a good setup on USDCAD first showing a strong pattern indicating this is a retracement in a bearish trend.
As you might know USDCAD correlates expetionally well on the montly gold has been very straight bullish since January however It'll be better for Gold to find support either around 1.26000 or much further depending on your trading style and money/risk you can leave positions running for longer and maybe look at the longer term monthly
I like this setup It's a high probabilty and with few risk since if the upper trendline is broken the pattern would be invalid.
However keep an eye on the economic events coming soon be prepared if the numbers are significant against us :)
See you for the next trade !
A.Erikanov