XAU/USD 21 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 12 November 2024, I highlighted the anticipation of a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) as an indication of a bullish phase initiation. Price has now confirmed this by printing a bullish CHoCH.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range and remains consistent with the broader pullback requirements of higher timeframes. This internal range forms the basis for today's expectations.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade up to the premium of the internal 50% equilibrium (EQ), where it is currently positioned. Alternatively, price may trade higher to reach the H4 supply zone before targeting the weak internal low at 2,536.855.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's intraday expectation played out as price successfully targeted the weak internal high at 2,641.940, following a reaction from the M15 demand zone. Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
Price has yet to print a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), which is crucial to establishing an internal range and indicating the initiation of bearish pullback phase. CHoCH positioning is marked with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price is expected to print a bearish CHoCH, signaling the initiation of a bearish pullback phase.
Alternative Scenario:
The H4 timeframe remains in a bullish pullback phase. Price is trading at the premium of its internal and swing 50% equilibrium (EQ), where a reaction has been observed. Additionally, price is approaching an H4 supply zone, which could prompt further reaction.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance and persistent geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is likely to remain elevated. Traders are advised to exercise caution and remain vigilant for potential whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
Xauidea
Gold - Potential Rejection at Key ResistanceGold is approaching a key resistance level, which was previously a support. If the price retests this level, there’s a possibility that it could get rejected. This would signal a potential opportunity for traders to look for short entries or at least be cautious with long positions until there's clear confirmation of a breakout.
Keep an eye on the price action around this zone and watch for rejection signals before making any decisions.
XAU/USD 30 September - 04 October 2024Weekly Analysis:
Swing Structure: Bullish.
Internal Structure: Bullish.
Price has continued to print all time highs and surge with no indication of bearish pullback phase initiation.
The first indication of pullback will be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price has continued higher with CHoCH positioning remaining the same as last week's analysis dated 22 September 2024.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS and continued it's surge in price lead by soft US macroeconomics and increasing geopolitical tensions.
After bullish iBOS we expect bearish pullback, which, at the moment, is not showing any signs of printing.
First indication, but not confirmation of pullback is for price to print a bearish CHoCH. Since last week's analysis, CHoCH positioning has remained unchanged.
Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue doted line.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued to surge in price printing all time highs with price pulling back very minimally.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Bearish CHoCH has been printed indicating bearish pullback phase initiation. We also have established an internal range.
You will note the internal range has extensively narrowed, allowing price to confirm swing pullback phase by printing bearish iBOS. However, we remain bullish.
Although price has tapped in to strong internal low, price has been unable to close below
Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal high, however, due to the narrowing of the internal range and all HTF's requiring pullback, it would not be unrealistic if price prints a bearish iBOS.
H4 Chart:
Gold, is rally over?Gold Market Analysis:
Gold has been in a strong rally since the beginning of the year, with only one minor negative month interrupting an otherwise consistent upward trend. Over the past year, the rally has been quite aggressive, but given the current market conditions, I would refrain from considering long-term positions at this point. Instead, short-term scalping or intraday trades seem to offer better opportunities for this instrument.
Technical Outlook:
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD appears to be in a range-bound market. Recently, we’ve seen a deviation from the bottom of this range, and the price has moved into a 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). If there’s no significant reaction within this area, the next target will likely be the 4-hour Order Block (OB).
At that point, it will be crucial to monitor the market’s reaction. If the price breaks above the 4-hour OB, we could see gold rally towards the top of the range. However, I’d be anticipating a potential reversal at that level if the price is rejected by the OB. Should the price dip below the 2652 level, the market could experience a continued downward trajectory, signaling a deeper correction.
XAU/USD 19 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 18 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback.
Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
H4 demand zone is positioned the same as bearish CHoCH positioning.
Intraday expectation: On a candle-to-candle view since iBOS, price is printing higher highs, therefore, wait until price indicates pullback.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 16 August 2024, whereby internal structure was bearish. We needed to be mindful that H4 internal structure was bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS and iBOS.
Price has printed bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday expectation: Price to react at discount of 50% EQ, or M15 demand level to target weak internal high. Price may seek liquidity at M15 supply level to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Alternative scenario: Price to target weak internal high.
M15 Chart:
Gold is under downward pressure because the USD is at a higlevelGold prices at the beginning of the trading session on March 26 (US time) increased again after a deep decline last week, due to the slight weakening of the USD. However, according to analysts, in reality, the strength of the USD is at a high level, causing gold to be under a lot of downward pressure, posing many risks.
Specifically, senior market analyst Lukman Otunuga of FXTM said that after rising to an all-time high last week, gold prices are under a lot of pressure and will likely decrease in the near future. due to the increasing strength of the USD.
CEO Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex also said that the USD is increasing in strength, along with the increase in bond yields, which means gold prices will decrease.
Similarly, VR Metals/Resource Letter expert Mark Leibovit predicts that USD strength will push gold lower in the next few days.
Meanwhile, market strategist Colin Cieszynski at SIA Wealth Management gave a neutral view on gold prices. According to this expert, gold has had great fluctuations recently and it is likely that this precious metal will consolidate in the coming days.
XAUUSD 1D 21/04/2023Currently, in our daily timeframe, we are in a bullish range that is bounded between 2049.194 and 1981.738. Currently, the demand zone, which ranges from 1991.195 to 1981.680, is being absorbed by price action. Thus, we could expect a bullish reaction to liquidate the next logical liquidity point, which would be at the 2049.194 mark. Otherwise, if the price breaks below 1981.680 with a strong bearish candle, we would be in a new bearish range, and we could look for a short position.
XAU Entries + Exits (Best Reverse Strat Ever)My course is finally available! If you would like it in order to understand how to play my analysis FULLY, please let me know privately.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
How to play my chart:
Buy at support, sell at resistance. When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there.
The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays!
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
Update: XAUUSD (Gold) 4H 09/12/2022
Previous analysis are still valid.
Low time frame demand zone above the price is a strong resistance in front of price.
So we can expect a downward move from there.
As you know we need confirmation for entering the market.
💡Wait for update!
🗓️07/12/2022
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Long on GOLD, just for short-term📝 Weekly gold
From the beginning of 2022 to this moment, It was the best for the US dollar.
In the last 9 months, this global reserve currency has taken full advantage of the increase in interest rates, risk-averse flows, and the lack of a suitable alternative during the recession.
In last Powell speak, he said, would do whatever it takes to control inflation, even if the measures lead to recession. This strengthened the US dollar again and kept the rise of gold.
◽️ A strong labor market has convinced the Fed chief that the economy can withstand the central bank's contractionary policies without going into recession According to this, interest rates will remain at high levels for a while
◽️ Gold has room to see higher prices but, we have to be more careful about our trades when FED is ready for another new hike.
Currently, the market has priced in an 85% probability of a 0.75% interest rate hike for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
◽️ This week's economic data is very important like previous weeks because inflation data (CPI) can show the roadmap of the central bank and how successful it is in curbing inflation.
Inflationary expectations have decreased slightly and if it continues for several months, it will lead traders to bet on reducing hawkish policies.
A weaker release data could be pressure on the USD and could push the gold too and the effect could be just for a short-term Because we know about the policies of the central bank and the 4% target at the end of the year
🔻 What our team predicts is that the dollar will have a downward bias this week due to lower inflation expectations, and for that reason, gold can grow in the short term.
but keep in mind, that the mid-term bias of the US dollar is bullish and Gold is bearish. So you should expect a little upward return for gold.
🔻 Your support levels could be $1690 and $1700, and the resistance for your long positions is $1728 and $1745
🔻 A price fixing above the $1728 area can lead to higher rates for gold. District $1745 and $1760
GOLD New Entries + Exits (Best Reverse Strat Ever)The 1on1 video is currently out, if you would like it in order to understand how to play my analysis FULLY, please let me know privately.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
How to play my chart:
Buy at support, sell at resistance. When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there.
The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays!
XAU New Entries + Exits (Best Reverse Strat Ever)The 1on1 video is currently out, if you would like it in order to understand how to play my analysis FULLY, please let me know privately.
All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
How to play my chart:
Buy at support, sell at resistance. When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there.
The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays!
Gold daily analysis 02-03-2022Gold is able to breakout the strong resistance near 1926. So this is the support now.
Gold also tested the 78 % retracement level near 1950 and pulled back near 1935 which is 61 % level.
As of now gold is ranging between 1930-1950.
Gold is still bullish so go only for buy. The best level to buy is 1926.
However on daily chart the volume is falling from 4 days and price is increasing. So there will be a reversal soon. This may happen when gold tests the level near 1970.
So we can go for a short trade above 1950 for long term.
Scalp trade
Buy 1926-1936 TP 1950 SL 1920
Sell 1950-1960 TP 1928 SL 1980
Gold daily analysis 01.03.2022After the failed break out at 1926 on the day it made high of 1974 now gold is range bound between its longterm resistance 1926 and present good support at 1880.
Since two days it is not making higher high or lower low. This shows gold is accumulating. We can see an ascending wedge forming. So once this accumulation completes gold has to break this wedge.
The war news will help gold for breakout 1926 to target 1960 level (generally ascending wedge will have bullish break out)
However the sometimes breakout may fail and gold may test its support near 1880 and 1854. (this will be possible on the NFP news)
For today the support is 1890 and resistance is 1918. So we prefer scalping trades with
buy near 1890-1895 range SL 1880 TP 1910
sell near 1916-1922 range SL 1928 TP 1904
Gold is still bullish and we prefer long trades only in scalping. However considering the strong resistance at 1926 we may go for a longterm short trade near this zone.
Gold daily analysis 15.02.2022Yesterday Gold has very high volume in last five years. This may be because of news and weakness in other markets.
Even with this his volume gold was not able to make big movements because of oversold level. But we can study the support levels based on the volume level.
I tried to create a value zone and break it for studying the price movement. Based on current level price can go high upto 1886 as it is the upper limit of this value zone.
In present lower value zone there is strong support between 1864 - 1854.
So even if price lowers these levels may help gold find good support and help in retracement.
I suggest to go for short trades with SL at last higher high.
For today here is my idea
SELL 1872 SL 1886 TP 1800 (long term trade)
SELL 1872 SL 1876 TP 1864 (scalp)
GOLD (XAU) DAILY ANALYSIS OF LAST 6 MONTHSTechnical Analysis Summary
XAU/USD
In this pulication I just wanted to show how to choose the right daily levels and how they where respected the last 6 Months
All the levels in the chart are not tradable since they have been tested
Only the current trends are respected ( Uptrend and Downtrend) are in play
I could have also drawn and showed you all the trends that were respected and broken throught the period but it would make this publication very messy I might do one only trends in another publication.
I you want me to analyze other markets this way comment it and I will show all the levels that were respected.
Good luck everyone, stay safe!
If you need help don't hesitate to send me a message or comment
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✅ Two scenarios for XAU/USD ✅There are two ideas for gold.
Since the fundamental news of the dollar gives the possibility of a decline in the value of the dollar, there is a possibility of an upward scenario. But because the 12-hour trend line is broken, there is a possibility of a bearish scenario.
Two scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: The trend line is broken, the pullback market does and then continues its downward trend to reach the price of 1760 to 1750.
✅ Scenario 2: The price hits the bottom of the channel and reacts upwards and moves towards the 1820 and 1830 prices.
GOLD SELL | Going downHello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair.
Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity in GOLD ..
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment ..
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