XAUJPY
XAU JPY: Currently under selling pressure, various T-Frames
XAU JPY currently is under selling pressure due to a Double-top on the daily/weekly time-frames. But there is also a current Head 'n' Shoulders Sell pattern on intraday time-frames, 2HR mostly. Also, on the 2HR EMA's squeezing tightly together, serving to send price lower if anything, plus a massive rising wedge on 2HR which XAU JPY looks to be about to fall out of.
Momentum Oscillators in the right-side chart point to downwards price-action.
There is also XAU USD which continues to wind back in price after testing the 20/21EMA multiple times on the Daily, but it continues to slip downwards.
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GOLD/JPY: Bearish Bump and Run Reversal TopXAUJPY after sharply rising from the long term Lead-In trend line and Horizontal Support Level, is now currently testing the supply line of a local Right-Angled and Ascending Broadening Formation it has developed at the highs and seems to have completed an RSI BAMM and is now looking to do an impulsive move down. If the impulsive move down is great enough, we will see XAUJPY break down below the Lead-In Trend Line and confirm it as a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top, which could take us to the measured move that happens to just about align with the 61.8% Retrace overall.
The JPY overall has been setting up and getting quite Bullish against other currencies recently too, such as the AUD, GBP, CAD, and EUR. I suspect this trend of the Yen gaining value against assets will continue in Gold as the USD continues to rise and the JPY maintains its USD value relative to other currencies and assets.
Something seriously wrong in Japan right now. USDJPY
Gold price in JPY is going parabolic
Ni225 Japan's index going parabolic
USDJPY looking like its going to follow.
Japan possibly stuck due to the carry trade of US bonds in Japan?
This is going to accelerate and turn bad if the BOJ does not raise rates immediately.
The USD/JPY pair never been this high since 1998 tagging it previously in 1989.
Gold Hits Record High Against Yen, Defies USD, So Sell JPY?I write to you today with concern and urgency as the gold market takes an unprecedented turn. In recent weeks, gold has reached record highs against the Japanese Yen (JPY), potentially defying the US Dollar (USD) dominance. This unexpected development calls for immediate attention and careful consideration, as it could have significant implications for traders like yourself.
The Gold-Yen Relationship:
For years, the USD has been the primary currency in which gold is priced and traded globally. However, the recent surge in gold's value against the JPY suggests a potential shift in the market dynamics. Historically, gold has been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty, and its rise against the Yen may reflect growing concerns about the Japanese economy or geopolitical tensions in the region.
Implications for Traders:
As traders, it is crucial to recognize the potential impact of this gold-yen relationship on your portfolios. The weakening JPY could increase demand for gold, driving its price higher and potentially causing a ripple effect across various financial markets. Ignoring these warning signs could expose your investments to unnecessary risks.
Short-Term Selling on JPY:
Given these developments, I strongly urge you to consider a short-term selling strategy on the JPY. By taking advantage of the current gold-Yen dynamics, you can profit from the uptrend in gold prices against the Japanese currency. However, it is crucial to approach this strategy cautiously and seek advice from trusted financial advisors or experts.
Seek Professional Guidance:
Navigating the complexities of the financial markets requires expertise and careful analysis. Therefore, I encourage you to consult with professionals who can provide tailored advice based on your circumstances. They can help you devise a trading plan that aligns with your risk tolerance and investment goals, ensuring you make informed decisions.
Conclusion:
The record-breaking surge of gold against the Japanese Yen serves as a wake-up call for traders worldwide. By considering a short-term selling strategy on the JPY, you can potentially capitalize on the current market dynamics and safeguard your investments. However, always remember the importance of seeking professional guidance to ensure your actions align with your financial objectives.
Take action now and stay ahead of the curve. The gold-Yen relationship demands your attention, and making informed decisions today will position you for success in the ever-evolving financial landscape.
Gold - What to expect from the FOMCIn our latest post on gold, we noted that the bearish trend lacked momentum, which would result in a sideways moving price action. We said that gold profit-taking would ensue to cover traders' losses elsewhere. We expect this trend to continue in the short term. We will pay close attention to the FED on Wednesday as it is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points. In our opinion, this will put further pressure on the U.S. economy, which will see more selling pressure. That is particularly bearish for gold in the short term. Therefore, we voice caution throughout this week as we expect gold to manifest high volatility. Indeed, we think there are high odds for gold to see a short-lived flush that will take it towards 1800 USD. Although in the medium and long term, we remain bullish.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above illustrates XAUUSD on the daily time frame and volume below it.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish; DM+ and DM- suggest that same condition. Meanwhile, volume is declining, which suggests fewer people are willing to sell at the current price level. We expect volume to drop even more if the price continues lower. Overall, the daily time frame continues to be bearish. However, we think lower prices from the current level are attractive for accumulating more gold.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. MACD is also bearish; however, it still hovers in the bullish area. Stochastic is bearish. DM+ and DM- are bullish, although if a bearish crossover occurs, it will cause us to change our medium-term to bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
🥇XAUJPY: Japanese Alchemy of Gold🎌●● Mine scenario
● 1W
It is very likely that, as in the case of XAU/USD , the wave (V) of the " Supercycle " degree forms the Ending Diagonal I- II-III-IV-V .
● 1D
A variant of count of the triangle ((B)) of I .
● 23h
A variant of count of the wave (1) of ((C)) in the form of a single zigzag A - B - C .
● 6h
I expect the wave (3) to resume growth soon. The confirmation in favor of the completed correction (2) of ((C)) in the form of a double zigzag W - X - Y will be: the breakdown of the line 0 - X , plus the formed waves ((i)) - ((ii)) of A , the first of which will break through the top of X — " bull lvl " and gain a foothold over the upper border of the descending channel.
●● Alternative scenario
● 6h
As long as the above conditions are not met, there is still the probability of continuing the decline of the wave Y of (2) with the first targets of 173775 .
The wave marking in the double circle parenthesis corresponds to the green marking in the circle on the chart.
GOLD XAU - THE RALLY BACK UP - LONGGreat one here straight off the bat great upside potential - ignore indicator below its inaccurate gold will push up
BITFINEX:XAUTUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
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OANDA:XAUEUR
BITFINEX:XAUTUSDLONGS
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OANDA:XAUAUD
FX_IDC:XAUTRY
FX_IDC:XAUUSDG
TVC:XAUBTC
FX_IDC:XAUGBP
FX_IDC:XAUAUD
FX_IDC:XAUCNY
FX_IDC:XAUJPY
FX_IDC:XAUTRYK
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FX_IDC:XAUCHF
FX_IDC:XAUEURK
FX_IDC:XAUMYRG
FX_IDC:XAUINRG
XAU USD - short battle before a longterm continuationHello traders and analysts,
This is marked as short for short term but overall bullish gold - just as liquidations occur during "summer period".
Here is our take on XAU
COT DATA:
AVG Longs Shorts Total long short
Avg_13 306,481 65,875 372,356 82% 18%
Avg_20 298,457 54,145 352,601 85% 15%
Avg_130 265,613 90,138 355,751 74% 26%
Technicals
Heavy longs from both non commercial and retail investors.
Daily longs are still in play
Weekly longs
Monthly long
Retrace is occurring on the weekly time frame - but can this be building up
Fibonacci level aligns of 50% around 1939 and 61.8% at 1907.00 USD.
This retracement zone will show a great long identification
Retrace needed to to confirm liquidity from the strong demand.
Fundamentals
Keep an eye on GBP JPY for correlation -as this moves negatively on positive gold and opposite to negative gold moves.
Also US treasury yield curves - will send shock waves into the Yellow metal - this is important to understand how the US government has weakened their currency to seem more attractive and create a printing bubble which from an economic standpoint with rising national US Debt - taking away the safehaven power shift will present investors rushing to assets in order to create demand. The USD will maintain in profit taking and realisation of over value, the price will see stocks fall.
Keep an eye on August September - October being a pinnacle month for shift in supply demand - timing before the election also.
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XAUJPY Rally?Analysis
-XAUJPY looking bullish after showing signs of a reversal. Sellers pushed price down into support but the following day, buyers bid up the price to back above support before the second daily candle close.
-The 2 candle price action resulted in a bullish engulfing setup AT SUPPORT which is a bullish sign.
-The third day (after daily bullish engulfing candle) price formed a red inside bar which is indicative of consolidation on lower time frames
-On the 1H time frame, price just broke a bearish trendline to the upside.
-There is also bullish RSI divergence on the 1H time frame which further eludes to price possibly moving higher in the coming days.
-The reward/risk is good for the setup (given the distance between daily S/R levels)
Entry, Stops and Targets
-Long Entry: 144,336 (Enter long after price pulls back)
-Stop Loss: 143,170 (Set stop below the lowest daily candle)
-Take Profit: 146,668 (Set targets at a minimum of 2 times your stop depending on entry)
= 2R
*Trade Safe and at your own discretion!*
Potential Big Wave incoming for GOLD Bat didn't work out very well, didn't it?
Now we have big big big red candle ripping through previous supply level.
Well, is it the end for Gold?
I don't think so.
We can see clear wave structure forming from the very bottom and it seems as though we are in potential wave IV.
Hence, here's our trading plan!
We will wait patiently for 1287-1293 area.
Any bullish sign occur hear might carry significance as we are in clear 3 wave structure which is the first leg of "Possible Flat".
If this wave breaks lower 1280's... Well that's another loss. But huge Profitability in this trade!
Good luck!
XAUJPY: Double Rebound scenario.XAUJPY has been trading within a 1D Channel Up that is now on its Higher Low limit (RSI = 50.211, Highs/Lows = 0.0000, MACD = 335.230). The declining Higher High sequence however may push this time slightly lower creating an alternative marginally tilted Channel Up (dashed parallel lines). The long TP is 142915.
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