After the gold plunge,how to accurately grasp the gold operationMessage surface:
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was unexpectedly very hawkish when he testified on the semi-annual monetary policy report on Tuesday. He said that after raising interest rates at a faster pace, future interest rate expectations may be higher.This caused the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March to quickly heat up, and triggered a full-scale rebound in the dollar, which suppressed gold prices to the weakest level in four trading days at 1813.
In addition, investors also need to pay attention to the US “small non-farm payrolls” APD employment data this trading day. The market expects ADP employment to increase by 200,000 in February, compared with the previous value of 106,000. This expectation is biased towards bearish gold prices; In addition, this trading day also needs to pay attention to the speech of Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin and the semi-annual monetary policy testimony delivered by Fed Chairman Powell to the House Financial Services Committee. Powell's speech is estimated to be much the same as Tuesday, but if Barkin's speech further strengthens the expectation of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March, it may further suppress gold prices.
Technical aspects:
Gold was physically saturated with the big negative line yesterday, and it continued to fall below the 5-, 10-, and 20-day moving average, and the gold price fell below multiple key support levels. It is currently trading at the 1814 line. This state is enough to change the previous pattern of strong rebound.At present, both technically and the market's expectations of future fundamentals, gold bulls will not get any advantage, and the overall market sentiment will turn short again. The lack of any rebound in the market is enough to show that the current market short sentiment is very heavy.
At present, the bulls can't see a little bit of rebound power, and there is too much room for a short-term decline last night, so don't chase the short-term for the time being. At present, the market is in a weak correction transition. I look forward to a certain technical rebound in the market. Take advantage of the rebound and then consider short-term participation. During the day, you can first pay attention to the first rebound after the overnight fall. The small high is near 1823, and continue to pay attention to the 1810-1805 support area below.
Operationally: You can participate in empty orders when you rebound to near 1823, the expected target: 1810-1805; you can try to go long in small batches when you step back to near 1805 for the first time, and the expected target is near 1823.
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