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XAU/USD MARKET ANALYSIS 25.4.21Gold attempted to tackle the $1,800 an ounce this week — a level, which once breached, could help get the precious metal above $1,900 an ounce, according to analysts. Even though the attack on $1,800 was unsuccessful for now, analysts remain optimistic on gold's near-term price direction. The positive outlook is largely due to two drivers — the recent bitcoin selloff and U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to nearly double the capital gains tax rate for wealthy Americans. At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $1,776.90, flat on the week. "We can get a move in gold after seeing the double-bottom. And next week might be the catalyst to push the precious metal higher due to bitcoin's drop and Biden tax announcement," RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis told Kitco News. Bitcoin selloff The popular cryptocurrency was down more than 9% on Friday, heading for the worst week in almost two months. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at $50,045, down 5.62% on the day. This renewed negative volatility in bitcoin could prove beneficial to gold, which has been losing the popularity battle against bitcoin. "Bitcoin chart looks a bit negative. Bitcoin has been one of the reasons that held gold back. Some natural buyers of gold have been buyers of bitcoin. And if bitcoin stays down, next push higher in gold could see more sponsorship, and the precious metal could take some people back from bitcoin," said LaSalle Futures Group senior market strategist Charlie Nedoss. Bitcoin's $48,000 level is important to keep an eye on. "This is where I saw chart support," said Nedoss. "Bitcoin could trade down to $43,000 — that is where the 200-day moving average is. The cryptocurrency hasn't traded below $45,000 since breaching it back in February." Nedoss added that if $54,000 can hold, it would be positive for bitcoin. Biden's capital-gains tax increase Biden's proposal means that the federal tax rates for some investors could be as high as 43.4%, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. "Some of the highest capital-gains taxes around the world are in the 30% mark. Most are around 20%. This is an overreach. And with Biden's infrastructure spending plans, we could be looking at stagflation," Pavilonis said. Stagflation is a period of inflation combined with a decline in GDP. Biden's plan is impacting equities, cryptocurrencies, and most importantly, the U.S. dollar, which has an inverse relationship to gold. "The dollar does not seem to be liking a lot of the policies coming out of Washington, including the Biden administration's proposed new capital-gains tax increase. Also, one of the next big initiatives is infrastructure spending. Both of those factors are hurting the dollar, and that is positive for gold," said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman. If the tax structure becomes less favorable for those investors holding a lot of capital priced in U.S. dollars, they are going to find other places to put their money, Millman explained. "If the capital gains tax makes the U.S. a less favorable destination, there will be less incentive for people to hold money in U.S. dollars. That is going to hurt the purchasing power of the dollar generally," Millman said. Also, markets are not forgetting about inflation, which is said to be a major driver for gold later this year. "Inflation expectations are the highest they have been in years. We have not seen a lot of measured inflation yet because the velocity of money is pretty low. But with infrastructure spending coming up, markets think that at some point, this will boost inflation," Millman added. Getting through $1,800 Pavilonis noted that once we get above $1,800, gold's moves higher could become bigger due to fewer resistance levels. "Gold and silver would do very well. We are set up for a longer run higher here in gold. If we close above $1,800, we can move up quickly towards $1,900," he said. For gold to get past the $1,800 level, the U.S. dollar index would have to drop below 90, noted Nedoss. "On the week, gold hasn't done too bad. As long as we close above $1,765, it will be a positive week," he said. "We would need to see the U.S. dollar put in new lows to take out $1,800. Might need the 89 handle in the dollar index." The reason why $1,800 is proving to be a strong resistance level is that the $1,806 level is the 100-day moving average for gold. "It's possible to hit $1,800. With all this inflation talk, I am surprised gold is not doing better," Nedoss said. Millman noted that if $1,800 is breached, there is "a ton of room for gold to rally towards its highs in the $1,900 range." However, for next week, one thing to be aware of is potentially downward pressure coming from positive macroeconomic data, Millman warned. "We have seen some green shoots in manufacturing. A lot of short-term reactions to economic data will be bad for gold and good for the broader economy. The $1,800 is pretty strong resistance level that bulls would have to fight to push gold above it." Data to watch There is a slate of macroeconomic data to keep an eye on next week. The most-watched event will be the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday and will be followed by the central bank Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. "The Fed is set to leave monetary policy unchanged – rates remaining in the 0-0.25% range and QE monthly asset purchases at $120 billion – with policymakers set to re-affirm there will be no shift in stance until 'substantial further progress' on the recovery," said ING chief international economist James Knightley. Also, the Bank of Japan will be making its interest rate announcement on Tuesday. Thursday will be an important day to monitor on the data front, with the U.S. GDP Q1 preliminary numbers, jobless claims, and pending home sales on the docket. "Q1 GDP report is likely to show another fantastic growth figure, led by stimulus fuelled consumer spending. We are expecting annualized growth of 7.4%," Knightley added. Analysts will also be monitoring the U.S. durable goods orders on Monday, house price index and CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, as well as the PCE price index on Friday. On top of all the data releases, Biden is scheduled to make his first speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday. Markets will be looking for more details about his tax hike plans.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by globalsymmetrygroup
1
GOLD BULL RUN START!If gold can close above 50 day ema and 1761 resistance area i think future is bright. One should not forgot that technical analysis is just 1 part of the invesment decision. Especially when it comes to gold since its affected by many things such as rates and inflation. Right now fed claims that there is no inflation to worry about nor need to increase interest rates. Therefore gold has some room to grow. If gold price can close above 1761-1765 area couple candlestick in daily chart i think price can move to the 100-200 ema around 1790. If breakout to the upside occur, one should expect to price rise even more to the 1838 area. Volume is also important. Central banks seems to stop buying huge amount of golds and that is bad for bullish price action. Also we cant be sure if US bond rate rally is stopped or not. I think bond rate can and will rise more in couple of months. Therefore gold got, at most, couple months to rise. After that inflation fear will cause another sell frenzy for Us bond which will cause increase in rates. Gold is bullish if it can close above 1761-65 area. So watch closely.
TVC:GOLDLong
by thegreatwall38
LONG POSITIONGOLD;TECHNICAL FORECAST:BULLISH We can see some sellers still in the market. We are looking for and entry around (1680.0) before price actually move long If you find this helpful and want more FREE Updates on TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ 1_GFX English Support Team ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AFFINITY_MARKETS
XAUUSD SHORT As forecasted!!!!XAUUSD is heading south. I had missed a trade late last night on this pair short. As forecasted on Sunday, Silver is going down. We are coming up to some key traffic areas . Lets see what type of reaction we get before entering. I will be looking for some good continuation patterns. Silver will fill the Daily IMB and Weekly IMB short at some stage. Lets see what the next two days of Price action presents itself. Long positions, I will wait for my key Areas to get hit first and I will wait for some confirmation before entering. CONSISTENCY IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Jake-from-the-trading-Cartel
1
GOLD a double bottom over the weekly support 🦐GOLD on the 4h chart after the last bearish move until the 1790 level bounced and now testing the 1845 area. The price created a double bottom over the support and according to Plantonì's strategy, if the conditions will be satisfied, we can set a nice long order. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by InkyGrip
39
Traders switch from Indices & Gold to BitcoinDespite all of the fundamental reason and environment indicator, all traders has been switched to the bitcoin. Right now I have been invest in the bitcoin and make it as an investment non traded. Unlike the indices and gold, we must rely the main factor. On the other hand, online system working from home thus the online money, making the bitcoin in demand. Bitcoin is a second income that back up the indices and gold apparently. The bitcoin has be in trend after it reached to the $30,000 value. Compare to the other 4 years back while bitcoin still on $400-$500 in value. Now, bitcoin and all other altcoins trader looks into and they want to get rid the political issued on the indices and apparently gold has comin into issued plus with the dollar from $103 value going to the $0 value in the future. Regards, Zezu Zaza 2048
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by Zezu_Zaza