Xausud
Gold Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
❔❔GOLD lost clarity, so just walk away. It's that easyPlease check the linked ideas for more context.
Gold has shown good bullish impulses during the previous two weeks or so. However now it's kind of stuck in this messy range. And though it's saving its bullish potential, I would wait for more confirmation and actual bullish price development.
I want to show this market to remind myself what's unclear for me, and maybe you'll also add something to your plan, like what is clear and unclear in the markets.
Institutional sentiment is 50\50. Multitimeframe analysis has shown basically the same rangy wicky structure recently, so this is one of the markets that are not worth trading at this specific moment.
One more interesting thing is that this week follows a very intense week before, filled with news and strong movements. This week, on the contrary, has less news and probably will have less volatility.
XAUUSD BUY AND SHORT POSSIBILITIESHi guys, I'm back with this week first analysis. As always I'm gonna keep things simple.
So price did react to my sell zone on last Friday and started selling off, currently price is reacting to the broken resistance(1992) which has turned into support level. I have multiple demand levels, the immediate one is around 1982-1980 which I wait for price to reach there.
After that I would wait for a confirmation in lower time frame to take a long trade.
XAUUSD LONG AND SHORT SETUPHi Guys,
I'm going to update my analysis on gold. Yesterday after touching our demand level at 1964 price rallied up more than 200 PIPS which was absolutely amazing. Now today I'm back with new setups.
Area 1979 - 1977 is an fresh area which has not been touched yet so price could react to it and give us a good trade. If price passes through that next area would be 1974-1971 which has been tested once yesterday and has already proven itself.
if rallying up continues resistance level 2001 is gonna be the first level to monitor and following that we have 2010 -2022 as a H4 time frame supply level.
So currently, best course of action is to wait and see how price responds to our intended areas of supply and demand. I also will keep you updated of my thoughts on this analysis.
Be honorable
Today’s non-farm payrolls are good for gold! ! !Looking back on yesterday:
USD/JPY fell nearly 300 points in the short term
The U.S. dollar index DXY fell 53 points in the short term
⬆️⬆️⬆️
The above data pushed gold up in the short term by US$9 to around 1830, but it never remained at 1830 and fell back to around 1820.
Today's non-agricultural data Zenobia forecast is positive for gold.
Trading plan for today:
XAUUSD Buy1815 TP1830
Sell1835 TP1820
Gold AnalysisAfter the big drop due to the FOMC gold created a bearish breaker on the 4H and left a liqudiity pool on 1h coming to next week I'm expecting it to go higher to take the Buy side liquidity before going down, I prefer sell on this market coming to next week
Weekly Roundup - XAU USD (September 9, 2023)My weekly/daily analysis of XAU USD heading into next week.
A bit of wait and see for me, want to see more Daily PA before I can have a clearer idea of what the Weekly might want to do.
Buy Gold 1937! Next Move...^_+Yesterday, we sold at the 1937 resistance level, but the price subsequently broke to new highs, resulting in a -30 pip loss on our 1937 sell position. With the price now above this former resistance level, we anticipate it to act as a new support. Our strategy is to initiate buy positions at 1937 with a stop-loss set at 1934. As previously mentioned, our target for these buy positions in gold is set at 1961. Best of luck with your trades!
On Forex should I buy stop oil or stop gold instead?Suppose I am a forex trader who trades both gold and oil among others. I am aware that
gold is now rising and oil has already risen. Should I sell out of oil and buy gold? Here I
use TradingView tools to give guidance to the best approach.
On the daily chart, I have dressed out the chart with a long anchored VWAP and its deviation
lines along with the price momentum oscillator and the ZL MACD. The ratio is descending
from a double top in March and May and trending down through the upper VWAP lines.
My analysis is that gold will continue to fall relative to oil until a potential bounce off
the mean VWAP.
My analysis is that the ratio will drop for a bit. If I need cash out of my positions. I should sell
gold. If I have cash to deploy into my positions, I shoudl buy more oil. Once the ratio bounces
if in fact it does on watch. I should do the opposite.
This idea I believe demonstrates the power of TV tools in informing a trader towards
high value decisions in trading.
A gold traders’ playbook: how gold could trade into year-endGold has been shunned by investors, but many are now questioning if the yellow metal is nearing an inflection point, for a potential turn, or should we position for further downside.
With US growth likely at a peak and as good as it gets, gold longs partly flushed out, positioning paired back and sentiment as bearish as we’ve seen for years, could we be seeing a low?
Tactically, I feel it is too early to see a resumption of a lasting bull trend and I am in favour of selling rallies into $1925. However, I am also incredibly enthused by the resilience of gold to ‘only’ decline $100, despite rising US bond yields and a stronger USD.
Unless the investment case radically changes – which I lay out below – the risks are skewed for near-term downside, although there is a growing potential for a reversal and strong rally into year-end.
The technical set-up
Since rejecting the $1981 supply zone on 20 July the ensuing bear trend seems to have hit exhaustion, with gold shorts starting to pair back exposures – there is a risk a short covering could take price into the 38.2% fibo of the $1987 to $1884 decline at $1925, which could offer better levels to initiate swing shorts.
Trading intraday has been a challenge for many day traders as volatility has been so low – Gold’s 30-day realised volatility has fallen to 8.3% and the lowest since July 2021. We also see the 5-day average high-low trading range at $14.11; one of the lowest daily ranges for years. Traders need to adapt to these tighter ranges, and many have traded with a tighter stop and increased position size to accommodate for the low vol.
One can easily justify these sanguine conditions given the investment case for the bulls has been lacking. For gold to reverse higher these dynamics need to shift. Notably:
• The opportunity cost of being overweight gold – market players can get a 5.44% risk-free yield in US 6-month T-bills. Gold has no yield, so in a rising rate environment, gold can often face headwinds.
• There is a similar dynamic in the bond market where US 10y-year ‘real’ rates have risen to 2% - again, there is an opportunity cost of holding a yield-less asset.
• Gold has been a poor hedge – with cross-asset volatility at such low levels and equity markets recently performing so strongly the need to hedge risk in the portfolio has been reduced. However, funds have favoured the USD to hedge potential equity drawdown given its deep inverse correlation with S&P500 futures. Gold has a positive 30-day correlation with the US500 or NAS100.
• The USD effect - Over the past month, the USD has rallied against all G10 currencies – with US data continually coming in hot we see US Q3 GDP expectations sitting above trend at around 2.2%
• With US growth above trend, recession hedges have been unwound. We see this in interest rate pricing, with the market pairing back expectations of Fed cuts in 2024 from 160bp of cuts in June to 110bp of cuts. Traders can see the level of expected rate cuts by looking at the spread between SOFR Dec 2023 and Dec 2024 futures (TradingView code - CME:SR3Z2023-CME:SR3Z2024). Gold – another classic recession hedge – has been shunned.
Positioning
Looking beneath the surface we can see a solid flush out of bullish gold positioning – longs have been paired right back. But has positioning swung too far, and could this offer an entry to look more favourably at upside potential?
• Total (known) ETF holdings of gold sit at 90.05m – the lowest since March 2020 having fallen 18% since October 2020.
• We see gold positioning in the futures market has been reduced - net long futures positions held by managed money (in the weekly CFTC report) now sit at 29,356 contracts – having been as high as 116k net long contracts in July
• CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor – trend-following funds) accounts are max short gold futures but may need to see the price the futures prices above $1980 to start trimming this position.
• Gold 1-month option risk reversals (1-month call implied volatility – put implied volatility) sits at 0.07 – the lowest level since March. Options traders are shying away from positioning for upside movement.
Are we about to see a turn higher?
As Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on 22 August, the US economy could accelerate further, which could hold big implications for Fed policy and challenge the consensus of easing growth and potential rate cuts. While we continue to watch global growth data points, we could also feasibly see US headline inflation accelerate higher in the August CPI print (released 13 Sept) from 3.2% to 3.6%. This could result in increased expectations of a November rate hike (from the Fed), which could lift the USD and real yields.
Gold would likely face another leg lower in this dynamic, but would also likely see volatility pick up and trading ranges expand – a more compelling dynamic for CFD traders
However, should inflation pick up near-term, resulting in the Fed likely to hike again, it would then accelerate the belief in lower demand and increased recession risk. It is here where expectations of interest rate cuts would increase as higher rates and a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed should accelerate the risk of recession in 2024.
If and when we see growth data points subsequently roll over, resulting in additional rate cuts priced for 2024, then gold could feasibly have a strong rally into year-end. As always, an open mind to changes in economics and the subsequent investment case for gold will serve traders well.
Gold Buy SetupDaily Bullish Trend May Resume on Today NFP.
Expecting a Friday New York Reversal Today.
Wait for M5/M15 (MSS) and then Enter.
Gold Bias: ShortWe remain bearish as long as the price stays below the supply zone. The current market behavior around that zone shows that the bulls are struggling to break to the upside. If they fail, then expect the price to head down to the demand area before the bull could step back into the market to push the price higher. Remember, the banks will never buy there. If they are successful in breaking the zone to the upside, then expect the price to continue going up.
GOLD/ XAUUSD 15mins technical
🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD
🔰 Time Frame : 15mins
🔰 Scale Type : small Scale
🔰 Direction : SELL THEN BUY
This technical analysis focuses on Gold's 15-minute chart and aims to provide insights on optimal buying points and price movement predictions. As mentioned in a previous post, Gold has already surpassed the inverted head and shoulder neckline, indicating a breakthrough of the institutional buy order. This indicates an opportunity to address the significant market imbalance above. For further details, please refer to our previous post.
Currently, Gold's price is undergoing a retest of the 1-hour demand zone. By zooming into the 15-minute timeframe, we observe that the price is on the verge of retesting two demand zones between the 1930-1927 range. We anticipate a bullish movement in Gold, starting from the 1927 area, with the intention to fill the market imbalance above. Our expectations include a potential return to the daily supply zone around the 1960 area.
Weak Manufacturing Data and Fed Rates Means Add Gold?Concerned about Recent Weak Manufacturing Data and Expected Fed Rate Hikes? Consider Adding Gold to Your Portfolio
The weak manufacturing data and the anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes have raised several red flags, warranting a closer look at your investment strategy.
Firstly, releasing the latest manufacturing data has revealed a worrisome decline in activity. This unexpected weakness indicates potential economic headwinds and raises doubts about the sustainability of the current market rally. As a prudent investor, it is crucial to consider diversifying your portfolio to safeguard against any potential downturn.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates shortly adds another layer of uncertainty. Historically, higher interest rates have often led to decreased stock market performance. This potential scenario highlights the importance of exploring alternative investment options that can provide stability during volatile times.
In light of these concerns, I would like to draw your attention to the shining potential of gold. Gold has long been considered a haven asset for preserving wealth during economic uncertainties. When manufacturing data weakens, and the Federal Reserve hints at rate hikes, gold tends to increase in value, acting as a hedge against market turbulence.
Therefore, I encourage you to consider adding some gold to your portfolio. By allocating a portion of your investments to this precious metal, you can potentially mitigate the risks associated with weak manufacturing data and expected Fed rate hikes. Gold's historical performance during economic uncertainty makes it an attractive addition to any well-diversified portfolio.
To take action, I recommend contacting your financial advisor or exploring reputable gold investment options available in the market. They can provide valuable insights tailored to your specific investment goals and risk tolerance, ensuring that your portfolio is well-positioned to weather any storm that may lie ahead.
In conclusion, the recent weak manufacturing data and the anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes call for carefully evaluating your investment strategy. Adding gold to your portfolio can safeguard against potential market downturns and provide stability during uncertain times. Don't hesitate to take action and secure your financial future.
Thank you for your attention, and please feel free to reach out if you have via posting a comment. I wish you successful and resilient investments.
GOLD: Consolidation in short term?From a technical point of view, trend is bearish on intraday chart and it could still trigger some consolidation. On the H1 chart it is possible to develop an interesting harmonic structure with Target around 1.918 and 1.900.
In long term however, the main trend is still bullish at the moment.
Trade with care!
Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful.
Cheers!
Go long gold to enter the market.Gold plummeted, but now it's time for gold to bounce back. Brothers with long positions don’t worry, the target is 1925
XAUUSD - 23/06/2023 - Intraday LevelsI have included some key zones, key levels.
22/06/2023 dropped aggressively, cleared previous SSL'S and bounced. Potential buy if the low holds, break would result in decline towards 1914. Key area to watch 38-42 for an upside break.
XAUUSD Buy day trade todayFXOPEN:XAUUSD Buy Position day trade today
Buy 1953-1955
Top 1960
Due to public holiday in US, there will not be much movement in the gold today.
Gold is only Pullback mode??I expected GOLD will bounce back to an uptrend to get H4 HH for Correction Wave. Next week we can standby BUY MODE, till my POI zone.
#SMCjohor
#SMCMalaysia
#Beginner
#JourneytoFTT
XAUUSD 1/5/23 Outlook. Pullback? Good evening gold gang!! hope you have all had a nice weekend. Im back with the analysis for the first day of May! (justin timberlake meme)
Ok price is still in the range higging the 1993 level .. this level has been respected so many times last month and is proving to be of huge importance to the powers that be. However, the monthly has closed above the previous!! which is very interesting to me
This means that price is likely to move up but in order for it to do that, we will need some kind of pull back.
As usual im ready for whatever scenario, so we have buys and sells on the chart. The buys above would be nice but the range above the target is very tasty with no problems.
FOMC news on friday, its possible we may range again this week awaiting it .. but then we may see big moves in price and this could be the catalyst needed to move up. Lets find out!
If you like my work then please drop a like and follow .. i appreciate ya
tommy
XAUUSD 28/4/23 Outlook. Back into the range. Good evening gold gang! Another great day on the charts as we got the sells right at NYSE open. Beauty.
/im going to be brief with this one as we are back in the range now .. hugging that 1993 yet again. I feel there is going to be some kind of big announcement coming that will blast gold out of this range .. might get it tomorrow
Buys and sells are set at the extremes of the range with targets too.
I’m running out of battery so i gotta be quick hah .. thanks again for all the likes and follows today .. means a lot. This really has become a passion of mine since Xmas .. helping guys get their head around the yellow metal.
Please like and follow along for more gold updates
TommyXAU
