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On Forex should I buy stop oil or stop gold instead?Suppose I am a forex trader who trades both gold and oil among others. I am aware that gold is now rising and oil has already risen. Should I sell out of oil and buy gold? Here I use TradingView tools to give guidance to the best approach. On the daily chart, I have dressed out the chart with a long anchored VWAP and its deviation lines along with the price momentum oscillator and the ZL MACD. The ratio is descending from a double top in March and May and trending down through the upper VWAP lines. My analysis is that gold will continue to fall relative to oil until a potential bounce off the mean VWAP. My analysis is that the ratio will drop for a bit. If I need cash out of my positions. I should sell gold. If I have cash to deploy into my positions, I shoudl buy more oil. Once the ratio bounces if in fact it does on watch. I should do the opposite. This idea I believe demonstrates the power of TV tools in informing a trader towards high value decisions in trading.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AwesomeAvani
A gold traders’ playbook: how gold could trade into year-endGold has been shunned by investors, but many are now questioning if the yellow metal is nearing an inflection point, for a potential turn, or should we position for further downside. With US growth likely at a peak and as good as it gets, gold longs partly flushed out, positioning paired back and sentiment as bearish as we’ve seen for years, could we be seeing a low? Tactically, I feel it is too early to see a resumption of a lasting bull trend and I am in favour of selling rallies into $1925. However, I am also incredibly enthused by the resilience of gold to ‘only’ decline $100, despite rising US bond yields and a stronger USD. Unless the investment case radically changes – which I lay out below – the risks are skewed for near-term downside, although there is a growing potential for a reversal and strong rally into year-end. The technical set-up Since rejecting the $1981 supply zone on 20 July the ensuing bear trend seems to have hit exhaustion, with gold shorts starting to pair back exposures – there is a risk a short covering could take price into the 38.2% fibo of the $1987 to $1884 decline at $1925, which could offer better levels to initiate swing shorts. Trading intraday has been a challenge for many day traders as volatility has been so low – Gold’s 30-day realised volatility has fallen to 8.3% and the lowest since July 2021. We also see the 5-day average high-low trading range at $14.11; one of the lowest daily ranges for years. Traders need to adapt to these tighter ranges, and many have traded with a tighter stop and increased position size to accommodate for the low vol. One can easily justify these sanguine conditions given the investment case for the bulls has been lacking. For gold to reverse higher these dynamics need to shift. Notably: • The opportunity cost of being overweight gold – market players can get a 5.44% risk-free yield in US 6-month T-bills. Gold has no yield, so in a rising rate environment, gold can often face headwinds. • There is a similar dynamic in the bond market where US 10y-year ‘real’ rates have risen to 2% - again, there is an opportunity cost of holding a yield-less asset. • Gold has been a poor hedge – with cross-asset volatility at such low levels and equity markets recently performing so strongly the need to hedge risk in the portfolio has been reduced. However, funds have favoured the USD to hedge potential equity drawdown given its deep inverse correlation with S&P500 futures. Gold has a positive 30-day correlation with the US500 or NAS100. • The USD effect - Over the past month, the USD has rallied against all G10 currencies – with US data continually coming in hot we see US Q3 GDP expectations sitting above trend at around 2.2% • With US growth above trend, recession hedges have been unwound. We see this in interest rate pricing, with the market pairing back expectations of Fed cuts in 2024 from 160bp of cuts in June to 110bp of cuts. Traders can see the level of expected rate cuts by looking at the spread between SOFR Dec 2023 and Dec 2024 futures (TradingView code - CME:SR3Z2023-CME:SR3Z2024). Gold – another classic recession hedge – has been shunned. Positioning Looking beneath the surface we can see a solid flush out of bullish gold positioning – longs have been paired right back. But has positioning swung too far, and could this offer an entry to look more favourably at upside potential? • Total (known) ETF holdings of gold sit at 90.05m – the lowest since March 2020 having fallen 18% since October 2020. • We see gold positioning in the futures market has been reduced - net long futures positions held by managed money (in the weekly CFTC report) now sit at 29,356 contracts – having been as high as 116k net long contracts in July • CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor – trend-following funds) accounts are max short gold futures but may need to see the price the futures prices above $1980 to start trimming this position. • Gold 1-month option risk reversals (1-month call implied volatility – put implied volatility) sits at 0.07 – the lowest level since March. Options traders are shying away from positioning for upside movement. Are we about to see a turn higher? As Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on 22 August, the US economy could accelerate further, which could hold big implications for Fed policy and challenge the consensus of easing growth and potential rate cuts. While we continue to watch global growth data points, we could also feasibly see US headline inflation accelerate higher in the August CPI print (released 13 Sept) from 3.2% to 3.6%. This could result in increased expectations of a November rate hike (from the Fed), which could lift the USD and real yields. Gold would likely face another leg lower in this dynamic, but would also likely see volatility pick up and trading ranges expand – a more compelling dynamic for CFD traders However, should inflation pick up near-term, resulting in the Fed likely to hike again, it would then accelerate the belief in lower demand and increased recession risk. It is here where expectations of interest rate cuts would increase as higher rates and a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed should accelerate the risk of recession in 2024. If and when we see growth data points subsequently roll over, resulting in additional rate cuts priced for 2024, then gold could feasibly have a strong rally into year-end. As always, an open mind to changes in economics and the subsequent investment case for gold will serve traders well.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Pepperstone
1
GOLD/ XAUUSD 15mins technical 🔰 Pair Name : XAU/USD 🔰 Time Frame : 15mins 🔰 Scale Type : small Scale 🔰 Direction : SELL THEN BUY This technical analysis focuses on Gold's 15-minute chart and aims to provide insights on optimal buying points and price movement predictions. As mentioned in a previous post, Gold has already surpassed the inverted head and shoulder neckline, indicating a breakthrough of the institutional buy order. This indicates an opportunity to address the significant market imbalance above. For further details, please refer to our previous post. Currently, Gold's price is undergoing a retest of the 1-hour demand zone. By zooming into the 15-minute timeframe, we observe that the price is on the verge of retesting two demand zones between the 1930-1927 range. We anticipate a bullish movement in Gold, starting from the 1927 area, with the intention to fill the market imbalance above. Our expectations include a potential return to the daily supply zone around the 1960 area.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Moon_SmartMoney
Weak Manufacturing Data and Fed Rates Means Add Gold?Concerned about Recent Weak Manufacturing Data and Expected Fed Rate Hikes? Consider Adding Gold to Your Portfolio The weak manufacturing data and the anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes have raised several red flags, warranting a closer look at your investment strategy. Firstly, releasing the latest manufacturing data has revealed a worrisome decline in activity. This unexpected weakness indicates potential economic headwinds and raises doubts about the sustainability of the current market rally. As a prudent investor, it is crucial to consider diversifying your portfolio to safeguard against any potential downturn. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates shortly adds another layer of uncertainty. Historically, higher interest rates have often led to decreased stock market performance. This potential scenario highlights the importance of exploring alternative investment options that can provide stability during volatile times. In light of these concerns, I would like to draw your attention to the shining potential of gold. Gold has long been considered a haven asset for preserving wealth during economic uncertainties. When manufacturing data weakens, and the Federal Reserve hints at rate hikes, gold tends to increase in value, acting as a hedge against market turbulence. Therefore, I encourage you to consider adding some gold to your portfolio. By allocating a portion of your investments to this precious metal, you can potentially mitigate the risks associated with weak manufacturing data and expected Fed rate hikes. Gold's historical performance during economic uncertainty makes it an attractive addition to any well-diversified portfolio. To take action, I recommend contacting your financial advisor or exploring reputable gold investment options available in the market. They can provide valuable insights tailored to your specific investment goals and risk tolerance, ensuring that your portfolio is well-positioned to weather any storm that may lie ahead. In conclusion, the recent weak manufacturing data and the anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes call for carefully evaluating your investment strategy. Adding gold to your portfolio can safeguard against potential market downturns and provide stability during uncertain times. Don't hesitate to take action and secure your financial future. Thank you for your attention, and please feel free to reach out if you have via posting a comment. I wish you successful and resilient investments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
1
XAUUSD 1/5/23 Outlook. Pullback? Good evening gold gang!! hope you have all had a nice weekend. Im back with the analysis for the first day of May! (justin timberlake meme) Ok price is still in the range higging the 1993 level .. this level has been respected so many times last month and is proving to be of huge importance to the powers that be. However, the monthly has closed above the previous!! which is very interesting to me This means that price is likely to move up but in order for it to do that, we will need some kind of pull back. As usual im ready for whatever scenario, so we have buys and sells on the chart. The buys above would be nice but the range above the target is very tasty with no problems. FOMC news on friday, its possible we may range again this week awaiting it .. but then we may see big moves in price and this could be the catalyst needed to move up. Lets find out! If you like my work then please drop a like and follow .. i appreciate ya tommy
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
9
XAUUSD 28/4/23 Outlook. Back into the range. Good evening gold gang! Another great day on the charts as we got the sells right at NYSE open. Beauty. /im going to be brief with this one as we are back in the range now .. hugging that 1993 yet again. I feel there is going to be some kind of big announcement coming that will blast gold out of this range .. might get it tomorrow Buys and sells are set at the extremes of the range with targets too. I’m running out of battery so i gotta be quick hah .. thanks again for all the likes and follows today .. means a lot. This really has become a passion of mine since Xmas .. helping guys get their head around the yellow metal. Please like and follow along for more gold updates TommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
11
XAUUSD (Gold) forecast Firstly, have a look our previous analysis how those rocked..... Gold is trading below 1990 and it seems to be bullish as it on trendline according to major timeframes h1,h2,h4. Finnacial crisis as well geopolitical issues are favorable for bullish trend of Gold. lets talk about technicals, Price trading on bullish trendline so bullish trend expected. on the other hand rising wedge pattern, that means price may drop once channel is broken. So we may expect selling trend. In our premium broadcast we are already in sell for 3-4 positions from highs 2000$ as it was told that selling will continue. Now to enter market in this situation, you have to put pending orders. lets see how market reacts. best wishes. please follow and like & don't forget to check previous analysis all analysis hit our tps
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Saibi_FX
3
XAUUSD | Market outlookThe XAU/USD pair shows a corrective decline, retreating from the record highs of March 2022, updated the day before. The instrument is testing 2010.00 for a breakdown, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions in anticipation of tomorrow's publication of the March report on the US labor market, which may significantly affect the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Current forecasts for the May meeting of the regulator are ambiguous and almost equally imply both keeping the interest rate unchanged and its further increase by 25 basis points. One way or another, the pressure on the American currency is increasing this week with the publication of uncertain macroeconomic statistics. The day before, a weak report was released from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on Nonfarm Payrolls, which reflected a drop in the indicator from 261.0 thousand to 145.0 thousand, with a forecast of 200.0 thousand. The Services PMI from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) was also disappointing, falling in March from 55.1 points to 51.2 points, which turned out to be noticeably worse than expected at 54.5 points. The instrument, in turn, is supported by the declining yield of US bonds observed since the end of March: 10-year Treasuries are trading at a rate of 3.2940% after opening at 3.3480% at the last session.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by DynamicCapital-FX
XAUUSD Asian session outlook Good evening gold gang!! hope you are well. After another day of smashing the targets .. heres what i can see for the asian session. Price is heavily bearish on all timeframes other than monthly .. so i can say that sells are preferred. This doesnt rule out buys .. we just have to be careful not to take them too close .. we need confirmation of bullish intention first. Price right now is at a strong daily level .. breaking this would mean a move down to the next level and even possibly to the 1915 area. Big news tomorrow with fomc .. so its possible to see price consolidating during the day tomorrow waiting for the news in the evening (gmt) Ill be here to update you on my findings as i find them .. as always Have a good session asian gang! tommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
4