XAU Possible MoveAfter breaking the solid trendline on October 23, 2024, XAU is now in a sideways position between 2750-2714. The news of tensions between Israel and Palestine briefly pushed XAU up to 2747 on Friday, and this morning it opened with a significant drop to the 2725 level. Today, XAU may potentially decline further to the 2720-2714 levels as the nearest support.
Xauusd(w)
Gold Price Analysis for the Past WeekOver the past week, the gold price has experienced significant fluctuations. After a sharp decline, the price rebounded and is currently at 2,747.215 USD according to the chart. Here is a detailed analysis of the factors affecting gold prices, technical chart patterns, and projections for the upcoming trend.
1. Price Fluctuations Summary for the Week
Early in the Week: Gold prices began to rise sharply due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amidst negative global economic news.
Midweek: Gold faced downward pressure as the USD strengthened but remained within strong support levels.
End of the Week: Gold prices recovered due to expectations of interest rate cuts from central banks and concerns about an economic recession.
2. Factors Affecting Gold Prices
Economic Concerns: Reports indicate that the global economy is struggling, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.
Low Interest Rate Expectations: Central banks are inclined to maintain or lower interest rates to support the economy, fueling upward momentum for gold prices.
Weaker USD: A slight depreciation of the USD supports gold prices by increasing purchasing power for those holding other currencies.
3. Technical Analysis
Short-Term Uptrend: The chart shows that gold has broken through a symmetrical triangle pattern, confirming the potential for further price increases.
Support and Resistance Levels: Currently, the primary support zone is at 2,733 - 2,736 USD. Gold has bounced strongly from this area, indicating a good buying zone. The next resistance area is around 2,755 - 2,760 USD.
Moving Averages: The 50 and 200 MA lines on the 1-hour chart indicate a bullish signal as the short-term MA crosses above the long-term MA, reinforcing the current upward momentum.
4. Gold Price Forecast
Based on news factors and technical patterns, gold is likely to continue its upward momentum toward the 2,760 USD resistance area and potentially higher if this level becomes a new support for XAUUSD.
Gold continues to show impressive resilience near recent highs
As the threat of a resurgence in inflation with the reckless fiscal policies that are likely to follow the presidential election loom, gold is firmly holding its ground around its historical high. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with soaring demand in China and India, are driving up gold prices. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election is boosting demand for gold as a safe haven. UBS has reported that global central banks has acquired 483 tons of gold in 1H2024 and forecasted that gold prices could soar to 3,000 USD per troy ounce next year.
XAUUSD sustained strength throughout the week within the 2720-2750 range. The price maintains a solid uptrend within the ascending channel, while EMA21 shows bullish momentum, widening the gap with EMA78. If XAUUSD breaches the resistance at 2750 and the ascending channel's upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum toward a new high of 2850. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks the support at 2680, coinciding with EMA21, the price may fall below the channel's lower bound and decline further to the support at 2520.
GOLD has broken out of the profit-taking trendSupported by tensions in the Middle East and US election tensions, OANDA:XAUUSD broke out of the profit-taking trend and then recovered in the last trading session of the week.
As a hedge against political and economic instability, OANDA:XAUUSD is up more than 32% this year and has renewed all-time highs multiple times. This is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the market's need to hedge, creating a rising storm in precious metals like gold.
Uncertainty about the US presidential election also boosted gold demand as polls showed the race for the White House remained tight.
The Dollar increased for the fourth consecutive week as Trump's chances of victory increased. Gold increased despite the stronger Dollar because these two assets both have separate supports that are outside the influence of each other in terms of direct correlation.
The COMEX gold speculative contract increased its net long position by 6,806 lots to 242,089 lots. This increase shows that the market's optimism towards gold has continued to increase.
What should gold traders focus on in the current market context?
Important events in the gold market this week mainly focus on geopolitical and economic policies. The following are key events and data affecting the gold market currently and in the near future.
1. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up
Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip this week have killed and injured many Palestinians. This incident not only caused risk aversion in the market but also caused investors to rush into gold. The war in the Middle East is also increasingly showing signs of spreading further in the near future, this is certainly a very potential support for gold.
2. Uncertainty of the election of the President of the United States
About the US presidential election The US presidential election is approaching Public opinion polls show that the election situation is still deadlocked and the market is very sensitive to the uncertainty of the election results .
This factor has increased investor demand for gold and demand for gold bars continues to be strong. Domestic political turmoil in the United States has increased market demand for a safe haven and further strengthened gold's position as a safe haven asset.
3. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
The Federal Reserve announced a 50bps interest rate cut, and this policy measure further supported gold's rise. The interest rate cuts have made the US Dollar less attractive, causing investors to switch to unprofitable assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices. At the same time, in a low interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased and this has caused gold prices to increase more than 32% this year.
4. Impact of the US Dollar on gold prices
It is worth noting that the US Dollar continued its upward trend this week, but it did not put too much pressure on gold prices. This is because gold and the US Dollar are being influenced by two different factors, on the one hand gold is supported by the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical instability, on the other hand the US Dollar is supported by the possibility of Trump's "coronation" as President.
General baseline assessment
The overall fundamental picture shows that gold is almost the top choice with solid supportive market conditions, from monetary policy to instability, geopolitical conflicts continue to risk spreading along with the uncertainty of the US presidential election.
Even if a direct correlation like the US Dollar increases, gold is still not affected by it.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Tuesday: JOLTS Jobs
Wednesday: ADP jobs data, Q3 GDP, US pending home sales, Bank of Japan monetary policy decision.
Thursday: Core PCE, Personal income and spending, Weekly unemployment claims
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls ; ISM manufacturing PMI index
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Technically, gold has no structural changes with an upward trend in both short, medium and long term from price channels.
After gold corrected, it recovered from the price channel, receiving support from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension and the lower edge of the price channel that readers noticed last week. The price recovery helped gold break above the $2,741 1% Fibonacci extension price point.
The current closing position gives gold the conditions to continue to increase with a target of 2,748 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,758 USD.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and notable technical levels for gold's uptrend are listed below.
Support: 2,720 – 2,711USD
Resistance: 2,748 – 2,758USD - … New ATH
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2771
→Take Profit 1 2760
↨
→Take Profit 2 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2695
→Take Profit 1 2706
↨
→Take Profit 2 2711
Gold Price Analysis October 28Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices edged lower to near $2,735, snapping a two-day losing streak in early morning trading in Asia on Monday. However, the precious metal’s losses may be limited amid geopolitical tensions and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election.
Buying by central banks and rising demand from investors have pushed up prices of the yellow metal. The World Gold Council said that central banks around the world have bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in each of the past two years, with China topping the list of countries looking to increase their gold reserves.
On the other hand, a slower pace of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve amid stronger US economic data has weakened the yellow metal. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a 97.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November.
Technical Analysis
Gold is approaching the gap again and forming an uptrend if it breaks the important zone of 2750. The all-time high of 2768 will still act as resistance at the moment. On the other hand, a break of 2725 is considered an opportunity to find long-term buying points. 2711 and 2723 are two areas to watch in today's trading session. Wish you a successful trading day.
GOLD OPENING GAP AND NEXT MOVE!On Monday's Asian opening session, we observed a significant opening gap in the XAU/USD market, with the opening price at $2732 and the closing price on Friday near $2747. I anticipate that the gold price may dip to the highlighted support level before resuming its upward trend. This movement could potentially fill the gap and retest the highs around or above $2750. A well-managed long position in this scenario could yield a profit of 100-200 pips.
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 28.10.2024120 PIPS gap on market open for Gold. Huge dirty gap, stopping out everyone who tried to buy at the top & in return putting us sellers into profit.
Either way I’m being careful due to all the market volatility caused by Israel’s terrorist attacks in Lebanon & Palestine. Price can easily do a U-turn & turn bullish again.Here is what I am looking for next;
Option 1: Gold carries on dropping lower now towards $2,680 as first target.
Option 2: Gold pushes a little higher towards $2,770 - $2,785 next.
XAUUSD 27/10/24Continuing from last week's analysis on gold, we are again anticipating higher prices as we enter this trading week. We don’t expect the trend to change unless there's a clear reason, such as breaking below key lows and staying bearish for an extended period, which could signal the start of potential sell-offs. However, for now, we're not considering this scenario. We have three key reference points: the primary target is another all-time high this week. Watch for price to dip below lows that hold liquidity, and then aim for the target at the all-time high. Follow the upward trend of large bank orders and look for a good entry if we see a pullback.
Trade safely and stick to your risk management.
Weekly Forex Forecast OCT. 28: BUY GOLD | XAUUSD!This weekly forecast is for Oct 28 - Nov 1st.
Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of the highlighted Weekly and Daily +FVGs confirm the bullish order flow. Buys are in order.
I will be avoiding sell setups in this market.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold Next Move | 1h Time FrameMarket Overview: In our view, XAU/USD will likely start the week on a positive note, heading for resistance at 2758. Price action for the pair on the 1-hour timeframe shows a Break of Structure (BOS), which depicts a strong bull in the market.
Trade Strategy:
Entry Point:
Consider buying the market as soon as it opens as close to the present price level as can be, plus any pullbacks to confirm the uptrend.
Target Level:
Target 2758. Do not go into this level blindly, as you may get turned around if the price action shows a reversal at this level.
Post-Target Action:
Bear in mind that when the target of 2758 is hit, your bias should be for a sell position. Looking for a shift in market sentiment should provide a good entry for short trades post hitting the target.
Tips for Execution:
Confirmation: Enter your long positions after making use of such technicals as RSI and MACD that exhibit the buying pressure.
Risk Management: Implement stop-loss in orders below the last three recent swing highs in order to guard against opposition price movements.
Market Sentiment: Always be aware of economic events and geopolitical news that may affect the prices of gold and alter your strategy.
Review and Adjust: Do not open a sell position immediately after hitting the target. Wait for the utterly bullish markets to subside first.
GOLD with two probabilities for 10/28/2024GOLD with a high probability to make the decision for 10/28/2024 ✅️ :
🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss.
🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
GOLD will soon retest a key resistance level of 2748 - 2753#XAUUSD (Update)...!!
Resistance Ahead |Short
GOLD will soon retest a key resistance level of 2748 - 2753, So I think that the price will make a pullback And go down to retest the demand level below at 2730...!!
#XAUUSD Sell Limit 2748 - 2753,
Tp1 2740
Tp2 2730
SL 2760 & Use Proper Money Management Good Luck Guy's
Use at your own risk
Gold Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
GOLD Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 2747.2
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 2714.3
My Stop Loss - 2764.9
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XAUUSD /PRICES TRYING TO REACH NEW ATH / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The price has already achieved a profit of +340 pips, signaling a strong upward trend. The fact that this movement continued after a news release suggests that market sentiment is likely driven by external factors, such as macroeconomic events or announcements.
The demand zone between $2,720 and $2,711 is critical because it reflects a price area where buyers are likely to step in. Historically, demand zones are areas of strong buying interest, which halts a downtrend. The expectation is that, if the price stays above this zone, it may bounce back towards the ATH of $2,757. This would mark a retest of the resistance level, a crucial price ceiling.
A move beyond $2,757, extending to $2,771, would imply a breakout. In technical analysis, a breakout from an all-time high (ATH) can lead to a new price discovery phase, where prices rise with minimal historical resistance. Traders might look to capitalize on this momentum.
The break below the demand zone would indicate that buying pressure is insufficient to stop the fall, leading to a continuation of the downtrend. A potential price drop to $2,685 would signal a notable reversal in sentiment.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [October 28 - November 01]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,714 USD/oz to 2,758 USD/oz, then decreased to 2,708 USD/oz, then recovered and closed the week at 2,747 USD/oz.
In addition to basic factors, such as central banks buying gold, the BRICS bloc seeking de-dollarization, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, etc. are the main causes pushing up gold prices in recent times.
Up to now, although tensions on the Korean peninsula have not ended, according to many experts, war is unlikely to occur on the peninsula. Because, major powers and international organizations have been trying to find ways to prevent war from happening on the Korean peninsula.
As for the conflict in the Middle East, Israel has just launched an attack on military targets in Iran. According to Israel, this is the country's response to Iran's actions and Iranian proxy resources that have attacked Israel since January 10, 2024. The Israeli attack began at dawn on October 26, but ended three hours later. Israel warned Iran that if Iran responds to this Israeli attack, subsequent attacks will be stronger.
Next week's gold price may continue to increase due to investors' worries about Israel's attack against Iran. However, if Iran does not retaliate against Israel, it is possible that next week's gold price will adjust back down.
Next week there will be a lot of important economic data released. Notably, the non-agricultural employment report (NFP) is notable.
The FED's dual mission will become the focus of attention next week when the market receives information about the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which is expected to remain at a high level. With the labor market declining and high inflation persisting, it is likely that the FED may only cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next month's meeting. This also somewhat negatively affects the psychology of gold investors, causing gold prices next week to be under more profit-taking pressure.
📌Technically, from a short-term perspective on the H1 chart, the gold price still shows an uptrend when the price is above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2720 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to conquer the round resistance level of 2800. In case the support level of 2710 is broken, the immediate gold price will decrease and adjust to around the 2680 mark.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.710 – 2.720USD
Resistance: 2.758 – 2.748USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2805
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2679 - 2681⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2675
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing candle body close above 2746 with gap above at 2752. Ema5 cross and lock will open the full range above. We also have 2736, as weighted Goldturn support and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2746
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2746 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2752
2762
BEARISH TARGETS
2736
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2736 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2728 - 2720
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2720 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE
SWING RANGE
2707 - 2692
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week, which we have been tracking and trading for the last two weeks and only updating the retracement and swing range, as we go on.
Last week we stated that we had candle body close gap open to at 2737 on market open but needed ema5 cross and lock will further confirm this.
- This played out last week perfectly and gave us the mea5 lock confirmation followed with the target hit.
We also stated that we had a bearish target below at 2715.
- This target a=was also completed last week
We now have a candle body close above 2737 opening 2760 and ema5 cross and lock will further confirm and solidify this gap. We have support below at 2737 and weighted support at 2715. A break below the weighted support will open the range below otherwise we are likely to see bounces from these support levels.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2760 (EMA5 LOCK ABOVE 2737 WILL FURTHER CONFIRM THIS)
POTENTIALLY 2779
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2779 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2797
POTENTIALLY 2814
BEARISH TARGETS
2737
2715
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2715 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2693 - 2669
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX